Big Sky Picks Thread - Week 9

[Mvemjsunpx]

I didn't see a Big Sky picks thread yet, so I'll start one this time. Usually there are about 12 of them by this point.


EWU 35-31 Portland St. — Viks suffer tragic loss #4.

Montana St. 45-17 Idaho St. — Will the Bengals step up late & save Zamberlin's job again? No, they won't.

Montana 34-23 Weber — Wildcats have a minus-14 turnover margin.

Sac State 13-28 NAU — Jeff Fleming needs to be way better than he was against EWU.

NoCo 35-34 SoDak — Bears don't have a history of choking late in non-conference games.

[SuperHornet]

Like I mentioned on the BSFans thread, you're forgetting that NAU has lost their QB, Venus. Even if the backup is as decent as NAU fans claim, there's bound to be SOME sort of dropoff, at least at first. While that may not guarantee a Sac win, the game's bound to be a whole lot closer than you're claiming.

Incidentally, based on recent games, not only are close Big Sky games the norm, you're stating that NAU is better than Montana. I find it difficult to believe that you'd be willing to knowingly say that.

[SDHornet]

EWU over PSU – PSU has come close but I think EWU finally wakes up and puts together a complete game for this rivalry.

MSU over ISU – Not much needs to be said here. MSU is suffering from injuries but ISU has shown little signs of life.

UM over WSU – WSU could pull the upset if everything goes their way. Higgins will need a huge day if they want to pull this one off.

NAU over Sac State – No homer pick from me this week. The home team has won the last 6 times in this matchup. If Herrick is out and Stangel has a bad game, the Hornets could pull the upset, but I won’t be holding my breath.

UNC over USD – UNC is due for a win against a lesser opponent.

[mtjack]

Like I mentioned on the BSFans thread, you're forgetting that NAU has lost their QB, Venus. Even if the backup is as decent as NAU fans claim, there's bound to be SOME sort of dropoff, at least at first. While that may not guarantee a Sac win, the game's bound to be a whole lot closer than you're claiming.

Incidentally, based on recent games, not only are close Big Sky games the norm, you're stating that NAU is better than Montana. I find it difficult to believe that you'd be willing to knowingly say that.

The game will be close because the talent level is close across the Big Sky Conference this year. If Sacramento State gets the win on the road, I don't think it will be because of a bad game by NAU's number two QB - Chase Stangel. Here's his abbreviated stat line from last Saturday in, not so arguably, the toughest venue in the Big Sky.

22 for 34 for 187 yards and a touchdown.

Nothing astounding but efficient. There were very few throws down field but that's been the case with Herrick this season as well. I think that says more about the young receiving corps than either QB's abilities. Don't know for sure but a guess/ Lots of short, quick, possession type completions. He seemed to take what the Griz defense was giving him without forcing things. He did hold the ball longer than he should have a few times and the Griz had 5 sacks.

I predict much of the same next Saturday in the Skydome vs. the Hornets. Sac State is stepping up, as is most of the Big Sky. No such thing as a gimme game anymore. Just about any team can beat another. 31-24 NAU in a nailbiter.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Like I mentioned on the BSFans thread, you're forgetting that NAU has lost their QB, Venus. Even if the backup is as decent as NAU fans claim, there's bound to be SOME sort of dropoff, at least at first. While that may not guarantee a Sac win, the game's bound to be a whole lot closer than you're claiming.

This is my (edited) reply from there:

Stangel didn't turn it over once against the top turnover forcing team in the nation.

Herrick hasn't been any better than average this season. Also, NAU matches up well to Sac because Sac is primarily a running team & the 'Jacks shut that down.

Incidentally, based on recent games, not only are close Big Sky games the norm, you're stating that NAU is better than Montana. I find it difficult to believe that you'd be willing to knowingly say that.

You know how worthwhile transitive scores are right? Besides, how could I be saying that when the Griz beat NAU. Also, the Griz beat NAU w/ just 1 turnover, while they beat Sac w/ 4 turnovers. UM has been more careful with the football over the last month.

[JALMOND]

38-6 so far. Still hoping for perfection as I've been missing one game each week for awhile now. Five games this weekend, I would like to go 5-0, but there are some tough ones in there. Northern Colorado is the only one not playing within the conference, yet they head down to South Dakota. Here are my predictions

EWU @ PSU---It is no secret that both teams live off the run, which may be a good thing being that it is supposed to rain throughout the game in Hillsboro. The Vikings had some practice last week as they played in the rain at Weber State and still amassed over 600 yards in total offense. The Eagles stayed relatively dry at home in a win over Sacramento State. The Eagles are trying to continue their great year, the Vikings are now playing spoiler in a matchup that is being played in its fourth city in the last four years. First round in the Dam(n) Cup...EWU 25, PSU 23.

UM @ WSU---The Grizzlies are back to winning but it seems they are not winning "pretty", as they needed late scores in the last two games for victories. The Wildcats finally showed some offensive spark last week at home against Portland State, but it always seems Higgins and company always come alive against Portland State. The last time the Grizzlies came to Ogden, it was not pretty and that was with arguably a better team than this one. The Wildcats are beginning to show some life, is it a little too late?...UM 28, WSU 24.

MSU @ ISU---The Bengals have had two weeks to prepare for the Bobcats at home. The Bobcats prepared by letting Northern Colorado hang around, almost to the point of letting the game get away from them. The Bobcats once vaunted defense has been hit by injury and as a result, as given up over 30 points in each of their last four games. This game could be interesting, if not for the Bengals not scoring 30 points since their first game against Montana-Western...MSU 30, ISU 10.

UNC @ South Dakota---Taking a break from the conference, the Bears head on the road to face their former DII rivals in South Dakota. The Bears are still smarting from what they thought was a good shot at getting a win on the road against Montana State last week, but have to be brimming with confidence in going back on the road against what is perceived to be a "lesser" opponent than last week. One thing, though, South Dakota is a pretty good team this year...South Dakota 21, UNC 17.

Sac State @ NAU---Are the Jacks going to play without Herrick again and if so, will they get the same inspired play from their offense that they got against Montana? Will the Hornets still get the same gutsy play on the road that has shown against Eastern Washington and Montana, only this time will it result in a win? All things probably come true except for the Hornets win...NAU 28, Sac State 21.

[EWURanger]

EWU 35 @ PSU 28

UM 31 @ WSU 28

MSU 42 @ ISU 24

UNC 21 @ South Dakota 34

Sac State 35 @ NAU 38 (1OT)

[BigSkyBears]

Winners:

EWU, UM, MSU, NAU, So Dak,

[Silenoz]

Like I mentioned on the BSFans thread, you're forgetting that NAU has lost their QB, Venus. Even if the backup is as decent as NAU fans claim, there's bound to be SOME sort of dropoff, at least at first. While that may not guarantee a Sac win, the game's bound to be a whole lot closer than you're claiming.

Incidentally, based on recent games, not only are close Big Sky games the norm, you're stating that NAU is better than Montana. I find it difficult to believe that you'd be willing to knowingly say that.

...or just that Sac isn't as good as NAU

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU 37 @ PSU 34

UM 34 @ WSU 26

MSU 42 @ ISU 20

UNC 27 @ South Dakota 31

Sac State 28 @ NAU 38

[catbob]

Eags, Cats, Griz, Bears, Jacks.

[webfan]

Viks, Wildcats, Bobcats, Bears and Hornets.

[grizcountry420]

P-State over EW 38-31
UM over Web St 31-17
MSU over ISU 44-10
SD over UNC 23-17
NAU over Sac St 24-21

[cats2506]

Viks, Cats, Cats, Bears, Jacks

[Willie]

Viks, Cats, Cats, Bears, Jacks

Refer to your avatar.

[cats2506]

Viks, Cats, Cats, Bears, Jacks

Refer to your avatar.

I see this at the Battle of the Turnovers and WTF moments. Home team wins in the rain just like '08

[Mvemjsunpx]

Refer to your avatar.

I see this at the Battle of the Turnovers and WTF moments. Home team wins in the rain just like '08

One problem with that reasoning. Both teams have committed a lot of turnovers, but the Griz force a lot while Weber doesn't force any. The Wildcats have just 6 takeaways in 7 games this year (Montana has 23 in 8 games).

Another problem for Weber: Cameron Higgins has sucked this year. His pass protection has been outstanding (just 4 sacks allowed in 7 games), but he still has 11 picks and a below average efficiency rating (he only ranks above ISU's Russell Hill among Big Sky starters).

Weber's running game is the main thing to worry about, IMO.

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

Refer to your avatar.

I see this at the Battle of the Turnovers and WTF moments. Home team wins in the rain just like '08

That wasn't rain, I think my sack is still drying out from the monsoon that had a football game played in it.


My winners are: EWU, MT St., MT, NAU, NoCo. All the games were way too close last week, this is shaping up to be another good week of football with road teams picking up wins this week.

[cats2506]

I see this at the Battle of the Turnovers and WTF moments. Home team wins in the rain just like '08

One problem with that reasoning. Both teams have committed a lot of turnovers, but the Griz force a lot while Weber doesn't force any. The Wildcats have just 6 takeaways in 7 games this year (Montana has 23 in 8 games).

Another problem for Weber: Cameron Higgins has sucked this year. His pass protection has been outstanding (just 4 sacks allowed in 7 games), but he still has 11 picks and a below average efficiency rating (he only ranks above ISU's Russell Hill among Big Sky starters).

Weber's running game is the main thing to worry about, IMO.

Both teams have committed an ample supply of turnovers and WTF moments this year. Both have a lot of talent on their teams. McBride probably hates the grizzlies as much as any coach out there, which is why I like him, WSU will be ready for a smash mouth game. 60% chance of rain on a grass field adds to it all. The chop block history is there, I think the score is 1-1 right now. This is set up to be a classic sloppy, ugly war. I'm picking the home team.

[EWURanger]

One problem with that reasoning. Both teams have committed a lot of turnovers, but the Griz force a lot while Weber doesn't force any. The Wildcats have just 6 takeaways in 7 games this year (Montana has 23 in 8 games).

Another problem for Weber: Cameron Higgins has sucked this year. His pass protection has been outstanding (just 4 sacks allowed in 7 games), but he still has 11 picks and a below average efficiency rating (he only ranks above ISU's Russell Hill among Big Sky starters).

Weber's running game is the main thing to worry about, IMO.

Both teams have committed an ample supply of turnovers and WTF moments this year. Both have a lot of talent on their teams. McBride probably hates the grizzlies as much as any coach out there, which is why I like him, WSU will be ready for a smash mouth game. 60% chance of rain on a grass field adds to it all. The chop block history is there, I think the score is 1-1 right now. This is set up to be a classic sloppy, ugly war. I'm picking the home team.

Hope you're right.

[cats2506]

Both teams have committed an ample supply of turnovers and WTF moments this year. Both have a lot of talent on their teams. McBride probably hates the grizzlies as much as any coach out there, which is why I like him, WSU will be ready for a smash mouth game. 60% chance of rain on a grass field adds to it all. The chop block history is there, I think the score is 1-1 right now. This is set up to be a classic sloppy, ugly war. I'm picking the home team.

Hope you're right.

I'm Picking PSU too

[EWURanger]

Hope you're right.

I'm Picking PSU too

Of course you are!

[BigSkyFootball]

Eastern Washington at Portland State
The Eagles have found ways to win by making big plays when they were required. Levi Mitchell is a "serviceable QB" who is enhanced by the best running back in the Conference, Taiwan Jones. EWU will score just enough points to overcome a much-improved Viking effort. PSU much balance its offensive attack without the QB running all of the time and not turn the ball over at inopportune times to have a chance here.

EASTERN WASHINGTON 38 PORTLAND STATE 28

Montana at Weber State
The Griz are the "luckiest team in America" and this week they continue to escape adversity more often than Houdini. They were lucky to win, at least, 3 games this year and will likely avoid losing again at Weber State. WSU is not the team they have been the past two years and QB Cameron Higgins struggles against better teams. Unless it snows like last year during the NAU-WSU game, Montana should prevail. Look for Chase Reynolds to run wild against the Weber defense and QB Justin Roper will do "just enough" to make it happen.

MONTANA 24 WEBER STATE 20

Sacramento State at Northern Arizona

It appears that NAU QB Michael Herrick will not play on Saturday. This will help the Hornets. Backup QB Chase Stangel is serviceable and, after starting vs Montana last week, is more comfortable directing the Jacks offense. At home in the Dome, NAU is tough to beat. Sacramento State's strength is in RB Hilliard but the Jacks' defense is tremendous against the run. Unless the Hornets find a way to pass the ball effectively, which they probably won't, NAU will score enough at home (where they've beaten the Hornets often) to win this one

NORTHERN ARIZONA 28 SACRAMENTO STATE 24

Montana State at Idaho State

Can you say pathetic? ISU may be the worst team in the FCS. Montana State, on the other hand, is one of the best. When push comes to shove, best beats worst almost all of the time. This will be no upset. It might be better to stay home and do some winter cleaning.

MONTANA STATE 38 IDAHO STATE 14

Northern Colorado at South Dakota

Who cares about this game?

NORTHERN COLORADO 24 SOUTH DAKOTA 20

[JALMOND]

Eastern Washington at Portland State
The Eagles have found ways to win by making big plays when they were required. Levi Mitchell is a "serviceable QB" who is enhanced by the best running back in the Conference, Taiwan Jones. EWU will score just enough points to overcome a much-improved Viking effort. PSU much balance its offensive attack without the QB running all of the time and not turn the ball over at inopportune times to have a chance here.

EASTERN WASHINGTON 38 PORTLAND STATE 28

PSU's attack is pretty balanced with McCaffrey sitting 3rd in the conference in rushing and Kavanaugh is 6th. You are right that we need to stop turning the ball over, though.

[cats2506]

Montana at Weber State
The Griz are the "luckiest team in America" and this week they continue to escape adversity more often than Houdini. They were lucky to win, at least, 3 games this year and will likely avoid losing again at Weber State. WSU is not the team they have been the past two years and QB Cameron Higgins struggles against better teams. Unless it snows like last year during the NAU-WSU game, Montana should prevail. Look for Chase Reynolds to run wild against the Weber defense and QB Justin Roper will do "just enough" to make it happen.

MONTANA 24 WEBER STATE 20

Why should we expect Chase to "run wild" over WSU, he hasnt run wild over anybody yet this year. No smack intended, I think Chase is a great RB, its just that the current um offense isnt designed to have a RB have a big game.