Prediciting the Future

[Ibanez]

We have a few contest left until the Primaries are over. In broad terms, if Clinton wins by a 10 point margin(55%-45%) she is still behind Obama.
If Clinton pulls a narrow victory in Indiana, and wins by 10 points in every state but North Carolina, where she loses by 10 points, she is still behind Obama. Of course, i'm not factoring into Superdelegates. Hiliary can win 66% of the remaining superdelegates, 199, and still lose. The previous scenario gives Obama 2,025 delegates to Clintons 1997.

At a margin of 60%-40%, Clinton loses. Clinton would need to win by wide margins, at least by 15% in the next 9 contest to win the delegate vote. This again, is not factoring into Superdelegates.

It looks more and more grim for Clinton. So why does she stay in? Is she hoping Obama will lose his luster, lose to McCain and hopefully she can run again in 2012?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/ ... index.html

[Mvemjsunpx]

We have a few contest left until the Primaries are over. In broad terms, if Clinton wins by a 10 point margin(55%-45%) she is still behind Obama.
If Clinton pulls a narrow victory in Indiana, and wins by 10 points in every state but North Carolina, where she loses by 10 points, she is still behind Obama. Of course, i'm not factoring into Superdelegates. Hiliary can win 66% of the remaining superdelegates, 199, and still lose. The previous scenario gives Obama 2,025 delegates to Clintons 1997.

At a margin of 60%-40%, Clinton loses. Clinton would need to win by wide margins, at least by 15% in the next 9 contest to win the delegate vote. This again, is not factoring into Superdelegates.

It looks more and more grim for Clinton. So why does she stay in? Is she hoping Obama will lose his luster, lose to McCain and hopefully she can run again in 2012?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/ ... index.html

Probably because she (& Bill) just can't accept that her perceived presidential destiny has been shattered. The Clintons seem to like the "win at any cost" mentality, which is great for sports but not for politics. If she is hoping to sabotage Obama so she can run in 2012, that's pretty stupid. There's a good chance the Democrats will blame her if Obama loses to McCain. If that's the case, she's looking at Chris Dodd numbers four years from now.

I think Hillary will win Indiana narrowly, but she'll probably lose NC by at least 55/45. If that's the case, he'll get more delegates on May 6th. and the whiplash media will again call for her to drop out. She'll win WV & Kentucky by decent margins (if the most recent polls are any consideration), but she has pretty much no chance in Oregon, Montana, or South Dakota. I have no idea about Puerto Rico, though the fact it's largely hispanic should give her the advantage. At any rate with the states remaining, it would be a miracle for Clinton to get the pre-superdelegate deficit to under 100, much less take the lead.

[Ibanez]

I have no idea about Puerto Rico also, but from what i've read even with a narrow margin of victory, she loses the delegate race. Now, the superdelegates can vote for who they like but I hope delegates vote according to thier state.

[SuperHornet]

The Donkey-vs.-Elephant numbers are coming out strongly in Hillary's favor. Just the other day, I saw that she is sporting a 9-point lead over McCain, while Obama's "lead" over McCain is well within the margin of error, so that is statistically a dead heat. Given that such numbers indicate that Hillary is a more "electable" candidate and also factoring in Obama's recent foot-in-mouth disease and his justified (or not) association with Rev. Wright, there may well be a PA-generated tidal wave propelling Hillary through IN and PR to a victory at the convention, Dean be d@mned.

This isn't a done deal, mind you. But it IS a distinct possibility.

[Ibanez]

The Donkey-vs.-Elephant numbers are coming out strongly in Hillary's favor. Just the other day, I saw that she is sporting a 9-point lead over McCain, while Obama's "lead" over McCain is well within the margin of error, so that is statistically a dead heat. Given that such numbers indicate that Hillary is a more "electable" candidate and also factoring in Obama's recent foot-in-mouth disease and his justified (or not) association with Rev. Wright, there may well be a PA-generated tidal wave propelling Hillary through IN and PR to a victory at the convention, Dean be d@mned.

This isn't a done deal, mind you. But it IS a distinct possibility.

I read an article today, i'll find it later, where a poll was taken and most people in Indiana weren't swayed by Wright and will still vote Obama. Regardless, the numbers are against her and it's the numbers that matter. If Michigan and Florida revote, it might help her, but they should not have thier votes counted. Neither candidate campaigned in Florida and Obama wasn't even a choice in Michigan.

[Mvemjsunpx]

The Donkey-vs.-Elephant numbers are coming out strongly in Hillary's favor. Just the other day, I saw that she is sporting a 9-point lead over McCain, while Obama's "lead" over McCain is well within the margin of error, so that is statistically a dead heat. Given that such numbers indicate that Hillary is a more "electable" candidate and also factoring in Obama's recent foot-in-mouth disease and his justified (or not) association with Rev. Wright, there may well be a PA-generated tidal wave propelling Hillary through IN and PR to a victory at the convention, Dean be d@mned.

This isn't a done deal, mind you. But it IS a distinct possibility.

The only numbers that have listed Hillary as more electable are recent. Once we stop constantly talking about Rev. Wright, it will likely go back to the way it was (especially since a majority of Americans still rate Hillary as dishonest). There's another reason Obama is more electable than Clinton: Hillary voted for the Iraq War.

[AZGrizFan]

I'll predict the future:

John McCain, President of the United States

[Ibanez]

I was at the SC State Democratic convention on Saturday, there was a lot of talk about what people would do if Hil gets the nomination...a lot of people were serious about leaving the party.

[Col Hogan]

I was at the SC State Democratic convention on Saturday, there was a lot of talk about what people would do if Hil gets the nomination...a lot of people were serious about leaving the party.

Quite a situation developing in the Democratic Party...

Polls would seem to indicate that Obama can't defeat McCain...

And there are indications, such as what Mark has posted about South Carolina, that point to a fractured Democratic Party if HRC some how gets the nomination...

I think AzGriz has his prediction right on...like it or not...McCain win the general election in November...

[BigApp]

I'll predict the future:

John McCain, President of the United States

like it or not

[AZGrizFan]

I'll predict the future:

John McCain, President of the United States

like it or not

Oh, I LIKE it....been hoping for this since 2000....just never thought we'd see the day where a moderate got his partie's nomination.

[HI54UNI]

I'll predict the future:

John McCain, President of the United States

Ding ding ding we have a winner!

[UNHWildCats]

My bold predictions for tomorrow. Clinton will win Indiana by 13 points. She will narrowly lose North Carolina with Obama gettingless then 51% the NC delegates will split pretty evenly.

West Virginia and Kentucky are shaping up as possible 70% days for Clinton.

[travelinman67]

My bold prediction for today. 'Cats will spend too much time in front of the television, developing a callous on his channel changing finger. Hillary will win at least one of the states, and 'Cats will head to the john to add to that callous...

[SuperHornet]

How's this for predicting the future?

8 years of Bill.

8 years of Hillary.

8 years of Chelsea.

You heard it first here, folks.

[AZGrizFan]

How's this for predicting the future?

8 years of Bill.

8 years of Hillary.

8 years of Chelsea.

You heard it first here, folks.

I'll take one of the Bush girls any day over Chelsea.

[travelinman67]

How's this for predicting the future?

8 years of Bill.

8 years of Hillary.

8 years of Chelsea.

You heard it first here, folks.

Not even Democrats are THAT stupid!

[Col Hogan]

My bold predictions for tomorrow. Clinton will win Indiana by 13 points. She will narrowly lose North Carolina with Obama gettingless then 51% the NC delegates will split pretty evenly.

West Virginia and Kentucky are shaping up as possible 70% days for Clinton.

Predictions - Priceless...

Reality - Painful (if you are HRC)

Barely wins Indiana
Gets arse kicked in NC

Glad you don't do my financial advise.....

[Col Hogan]

How's this for predicting the future?

8 years of Bill.

8 years of Hillary.

8 years of Chelsea.

You heard it first here, folks.

Care to predict when HRC starts her 8 years...it isn't going to be in January 2009...

[Ibanez]

My bold predictions for tomorrow. Clinton will win Indiana by 13 points. She will narrowly lose North Carolina with Obama gettingless then 51% the NC delegates will split pretty evenly.

West Virginia and Kentucky are shaping up as possible 70% days for Clinton.

Didn't happen. She wins by 2 points in Indiana and loses by 10 in North Carolina. Clinton is done and it's time for her supporters to wake up and realize that.

[travelinman67]

Interesting listening to the pundits this morn...pointed out the 200k popular vote edge Obama won by yesterday wipes out Hil's PA popular vote spread, ergo, resetting the clock back two months to where Obama had just come of his winter sweep. WV appears to be Hil's last hope...unless she can pull a rabbit out of her ass (highly possible, literally, having been married to Bubba-dog), she would have to use the "nuclear" option (legally force the DNC to count MI and FL) to salvage her election.

It'll be interesting to see how far she'll push this for a "win"....also validates everything said about her ego-centric motivation.

[UNHWildCats]

Interesting listening to the pundits this morn...pointed out the 200k popular vote edge Obama won by yesterday wipes out Hil's PA popular vote spread, ergo, resetting the clock back two months to where Obama had just come of his winter sweep. WV appears to be Hil's last hope...unless she can pull a rabbit out of her ass (highly possible, literally, having been married to Bubba-dog), she would have to use the "nuclear" option (legally force the DNC to count MI and FL) to salvage her election.

It'll be interesting to see how far she'll push this for a "win"....also validates everything said about her ego-centric motivation.

She will approach 70% in West Virginia and Kentucky. But she is reportedly meeting with all the uncommitted supers this morning to determine if theres still a path forward.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Didn't happen. She wins by 2 points in Indiana and loses by 10 in North Carolina. Clinton is done and it's time for her supporters to wake up and realize that.

She does need to realize that, but I'm hoping she doesn't until June so my state can actually matter.

[Ibanez]

I guess Travis isn't going to visit this place now that he's back on AGS.


Anyway, Clinton's win yesterday is largely symbolic. She was able to win a swing state, but winning one state like West by God Virginia, does nothing to put her in the lead, nor does it show any change against public feelings towards Obama.

[Mvemjsunpx]

I guess Travis isn't going to visit this place now that he's back on AGS.


Anyway, Clinton's win yesterday is largely symbolic. She was able to win a swing state, but winning one state like West by God Virginia, does nothing to put her in the lead, nor does it show any change against public feelings towards Obama.

Especially now that John Edwards endorsed Obama. I wonder what WV would have looked like if he'd done that before yesterday.