Question about ODU's Playoff Chances

[∞∞∞]

Sorry if this a stupid question, but as someone who knows very little about the FCS, is it possible for ODU, with it's first-year schedule, to make the playoffs? What loss(es) can the Monarchs have to realistically make the post-season? Would a miracle undefeated season even be enough? Thanks!

schedule:
vs. Chowan
vs. Virginia Union
at Jacksonville
vs. Monmouth
at Fordham
vs. Presbyterian
vs. Campbell
at Savannah State
vs. Georgetown
vs. North Carolina Central
at Virginia Military Institute

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Sorry if this a stupid question, but as someone who knows very little about the FCS, is it possible for ODU, with it's first-year schedule, to make the playoffs? What loss(es) can the Monarchs have to realistically make the post-season? Would a miracle undefeated season even be enough? Thanks!

schedule:
vs. Chowan
vs. Virginia Union
at Jacksonville
vs. Monmouth
at Fordham
vs. Presbyterian
vs. Campbell
at Savannah State
vs. Georgetown
vs. North Carolina Central
at Virginia Military Institute

Doesn't ODU have a probation period for the startup? Even if they don't they wouldn't get the nod into the playoffs if they went undefeated with a weak schedule like that. Now understand that the schedule is pretty fair for the position you guys are in as a startup but it just wouldn't compare favorably to anyone else that would make the playoffs as far as strength goes. Glad to have you posting here though and keep it up.

[bigblue78]

Fellow Monarch, let's be realistic for this year. Most of our players have never played a single down of FCS-level FB. This schedule of Div II and mostly lower FCS teams was designed to allow our Monarchs to develop while rewarding the many fans that bought tickets with potentially competetive games (and hopefully some wins).

But the competition for FCS at-large berths is fierce and the level of play is much better than you probably envision. To put it in perspective, even if ODU managed your theoretical 11-0 season, they would not be able to win a single game in the CAA South. No playoffs for ODU until they can compete in the CAA.

PS: ODU is eligible for post-season play this year.

[Monarch Nation]

As I understand it, we are technically eligible to make post season with nine FCS teams on our schedule, but the reality is we would have to not only go undefeated, but average nearly 100 points per game since our schedule is very weak.

In other words, no way.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Fellow Monarch, let's be realistic for this year. Most of our players have never played a single down of FCS-level FB. This schedule of Div II and mostly lower FCS teams was designed to allow our Monarchs to develop while rewarding the many fans that bought tickets with potentially competetive games (and hopefully some wins).

But the competition for FCS at-large berths is fierce and the level of play is much better than you probably envision. To put it in perspective, even if ODU managed your theoretical 11-0 season, they would not be able to win a single game in the CAA South. No playoffs for ODU until they can compete in the CAA.

True dat. Great to have you ODU boys showing up on here! Nice analysis on the levels of competition as well. Can't wait to see you guys start playing some ball. Look forward to some comments and so forth from some of you ODU guys and the exciting happenings going on in your area right now.

[∞∞∞]

I understand why our schedule was built this way and give props to Wilder for doing so. I think most of us are very realistic about the expectations, but thanks for the great replies!

[OL FU]

Beat Fordham so we can have some fun with the PL Fans

[dbackjon]

You know that is a better schedule than Dayton or San Diego has...

[Mountaineer]

Beat Fordham so we can have some fun with the PL Fans

We need to get some of those PL guys over here. I miss the scholarship talk.

You know that is a better schedule than Dayton or San Diego has...

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

You know that is a better schedule than Dayton or San Diego has...

Man those SD fans sure have been quiet for the last year or so but I'd say you're pretty accurate on the statement.

[CAA Flagship]

Please excuse our overboard enthusiasm. But we have wanted football so badly. To see this coming to fruition is unbelievable.

Yup, it is a horrible schedule. We know it but honestly, we don't care. As long as we are competitive in many of our games, we'll be happy. But much of this thinking also hinges on the fact that we know that we are in a recruiting hotbed which means that we have a good chance to be a decent program in a few years.

So if we get good, who loses? No doubt about it, it is JMU. No program will be affected more than JMU.

[wideright82]

God willing you'll get more top 25 votes than Albany and Dayton.

[Mountaineer]

God willing you'll get more top 25 votes than Albany and Dayton.

danefan in 5..4..3..

[CAA Flagship]

Please excuse our overboard enthusiasm. But we have wanted football so badly. To see this coming to fruition is unbelievable.

Yup, it is a horrible schedule. We know it but honestly, we don't care. As long as we are competitive in many of our games, we'll be happy. But much of this thinking also hinges on the fact that we know that we are in a recruiting hotbed which means that we have a good chance to be a decent program in a few years.

So if we get good, who loses? No doubt about it, it is JMU. No program will be affected more than JMU.

Had to call a timeout to deal with the kids. Back to JMU.
Here's the reasoning. JMU consistently had 25-35 players on their roster from the "757", or within a 50 mile radius of Norfolk. The first thing our coach did was hire JMU's recruiting coordinator, who is from the area, away from JMU. During the two years we have been recruiting, JMU got a total of 1 player from the area.
Now fortunately for JMU, they have been able to lean on the National Championship to find other areas to draw from. But the hotbed is lost. Our coach (from Maine) talked about how far he had to travel to visit 20 high schools. He can do that in a day here. Recruiting is probably worth 70% of the success on the field. It's going to be easier to recruit at Old Dominion than JMU.
Now that being said, we could still lay an egg. But we're hoping that the quality of the facilities and the fan interest will keep the kids home.
Why JMU and not W&M which is closer? W&M is a different animal. For the most part, they will be recruiting a different kind of student athlete. We'll be going after them also, but there are a lot less of them in this area so W&M will not be affected nearly as much.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Good first couple of posts Flagship.

[ChetSteadman]

I'd say that the first few years for ODU will be pretty lean, no matter what kind of talent you put on the field. It's completely possible for me to be wrong, but I'd say it'll be year 4 (possibly year 3) before you see significant results. The Monarchs may win a few games and notch a big upset or two, but it'll be thin, no doubt. Year 4, or the senior year for these first recruits might be able to produce some of that "Coastal Carolina" magic. After that, it might be bare for a year or more.

Of course, this is just one idiot's opinion, and you could win the title next year. If so, fuck you - you're not ASU and I don't like you anymore.

[dbackjon]

Welcome CAA

And if Albany is ranked, they will deserve it

[Monarch History]

As I understand it, we are technically eligible to make post season with nine FCS teams on our schedule, but the reality is we would have to not only go undefeated, but average nearly 100 points per game since our schedule is very weak.

In other words, no way.

I'd be happy with 100 points the first year.

[CAA Flagship]

I'd say that the first few years for ODU will be pretty lean, no matter what kind of talent you put on the field. It's completely possible for me to be wrong, but I'd say it'll be year 4 (possibly year 3) before you see significant results. The Monarchs may win a few games and notch a big upset or two, but it'll be thin, no doubt. Year 4, or the senior year for these first recruits might be able to produce some of that "Coastal Carolina" magic. After that, it might be bare for a year or more.

Of course, this is just one idiot's opinion, and you could win the title next year. If so, **** you - you're not ASU and I don't like you anymore.

With a full CAA schedule beginning in year 3, I think the strength of schedule will far outweigh the progress of the current freshmen. In other words, let's say the schedule is 5 times as hard in year 3 than it is in year 1. I'm thinking the players may only be 3 times as good in year 3. We'll soon find out what our baseline is.

[bigblue78]

I'd say that the first few years for ODU will be pretty lean, no matter what kind of talent you put on the field. It's completely possible for me to be wrong, but I'd say it'll be year 4 (possibly year 3) before you see significant results. The Monarchs may win a few games and notch a big upset or two, but it'll be thin, no doubt. Year 4, or the senior year for these first recruits might be able to produce some of that "Coastal Carolina" magic. After that, it might be bare for a year or more.

Of course, this is just one idiot's opinion, and you could win the title next year. If so, **** you - you're not ASU and I don't like you anymore.

With a full CAA schedule beginning in year 3, I think the strength of schedule will far outweigh the progress of the current freshmen. In other words, let's say the schedule is 5 times as hard in year 3 than it is in year 1. I'm thinking the players may only be 3 times as good in year 3. We'll soon find out what our baseline is.

I agree with the Flagship on this one. I'm an ODU optimist, but you have to be a top-25 program to compete for fourth place in the CAA South. UR is taking full advantage of their NC and already has 10-12 commitments for next season (ODU has 1, but I'm hoping that will start changing Sep 5) and JMU and W&M aren't declining. My hope for 2011 is for ODU to win one game vs the CAA South and to finish ahead of at least one program overall in the CAA (Ga State).

However, Coach Wilder is carefully spacing his scholarship allotment among eventually 5 classes, so from 2012 on ODU should be a consistently competitive program and a worthy opponent for any program (note: I'm not predicting NC or even CAA champion caliber, I can't even predict tomorrow's weather).

[Monarch Nation]

W&M is a different animal. For the most part, they will be recruiting a different kind of student athlete. We'll be going after them also, but there are a lot less of them in this area so W&M will not be affected nearly as much.

A different kind of athlete, that's for sure!

http://www.monarchnation.com/plywood.wmv

(note to W&M, just having a little fun at your expense, don't take it personally)

[danefan]

God willing you'll get more top 25 votes than Albany and Dayton.

I'm turning over a new leaf this year.










Unless of course its arguing with TT over his TSN voting.

[wideright82]

God willing you'll get more top 25 votes than Albany and Dayton.

I'm turning over a new leaf this year.










Unless of course its arguing with TT over his TSN voting.

You and 96 will be up in arms every monday at around 1pm for the entire season.

[danefan]

I'm turning over a new leaf this year.










Unless of course its arguing with TT over his TSN voting.

You and 96 will be up in arms every monday at around 1pm for the entire season.

Haha. Actually I think 96 will handle AGS this year. I may just resereve my fire to spit over here when people invariably vote for Ivy teams. Ivytalk loves to get me fired up.