2022 Bracketology

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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by SuperHornet »

uofmman1122 wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:49 pm
SuperHornet wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:38 pm Someone posted to FB some compelling reasons the Griz should be in despite today's loss:

1. UC Davis currently losing to Sac.

2. 15 TN-Chattanooga lost.

3. 16 North Dakota lost (expected).

4. 19 Mercer lost.

5. 20 Delaware lost.

6. Of UM's 4 losses, all are to likely playoff teams (Idaho, Weber, Sac, MT State), of which 3 are possible seeds. Three of these losses were by a single score. Two of those games were led by a backup QB.

Sounds plausible to me....
I'm starting to think we're in tomorrow if UC Davis goes down.

Which sucks, because right after we lost, I was content with not being in, so I'll be pissed if we're not. :lol:
You're not making much sense right now...but that's understandable. One's mind tends not to work all that well when one has just lost a rivalry game....
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by uofmman1122 »

SuperHornet wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:55 pm
uofmman1122 wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:49 pm
I'm starting to think we're in tomorrow if UC Davis goes down.

Which sucks, because right after we lost, I was content with not being in, so I'll be pissed if we're not. :lol:
You're not making much sense right now...but that's understandable. One's mind tends not to work all that well when one has just lost a rivalry game....
What doesn't make sense?

Earlier today I had no hope of making the playoffs. Now I do.

If we don't make it tomorrow, I'm gonna be disappointed.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by kalm »

JoltinJoe wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:25 pm
SuperHornet wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:15 pm I'd argue with you about Montana if it weren't for the blowout today. The fact that UM and Delaware are from power conferences may help them, but Fordham's overall body of work will help them quite a bit....
Montana as it stands probably is the last team in; Delaware is out, as I see it.

It's hard to leave out a team that will finish in the top 20 (currently #14 in the coaches' poll) with the nation's No. 1 offense and Payton award finalist, playing in the nation's leading media market -- especially when its only two losses are to a top 6 team in that ridiculous overtime system by one point; and to an FBS conference champion by a touchdown. Fordham is in.
With the 75th SoS and no wins over a team with a winning record (although you do have 3 wins against the CAA) But think there’s a decent chance of it regardless.

Delaware’s FCS win and decent win over URI help their cause.

There are 8, 7-4 between the BSC, Valley, SoCon, and CAA. They’ll all be vying with Fordham and FAMU (ugh), for 5 spots.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by SuperHornet »

NCAA.com

At-Large Predictions

1. MT State (10-1, 8-0 Big Sky). Undefeated vs. FCS. Expected: Top 4 seed.
2. ND State (9-2). Only FCS loss vs. 1 SD State. Expected: A seed. Possibly Top 4.
3. Incarnate Word (10-1). One FCS loss on last-second TD. FBS win. Expected: In field.
4. Weber State (9-2). Two FCS losses to 2 Sac State, 3 MT State. FBS win.
5. Furman (9-2). Three ranked wins. Loss to SoCon champs. Expected: In field.
6. New Hampshire (8-3). Lost CAA auto-bid on tiebreaker. Expected: In field.
7. Elon (8-3). Ended with three-game win streak. 6-2 in power conference.
8. Richmond (8-3). Two FCS losses. Missed CAA title by one game. Expected: In field.
9. Idaho (7-4). 4th in power conference with two FCS losses. H2H wins vs. Montana, UC Davis (bubble teams).
10. Fordham (9-2). One FCS loss (Top Ten Holy Cross OT). Expected: In field.
11. North Dakota (7-4). Third in power conference. All FCS losses to then-ranked teams. Two losses to current Top 4. H2H win vs. Youngstown State. Expected: In field.
12. FL A&M (9-2). Ended on nine-game win streak. One FCS loss vs. 5 Jackson State. Expected: In field.
13. Rhode Island (7-4). Three currently-ranked losses. Ranked win vs. Elon. Better win than any by other 7-4 teams (Montana, TN-Chattanooga, Mercer, Youngstown State).

Busted Bubble

Austin Peay (7-4). Weak OOC schedule. Win over E. Kentucky makes Austin Peay closer to spot than other bubble teams.
TN-Chattanooga (7-4). Week 12 loss to W. Carolina.
Delaware (7-4). Four FCS losses.
Montana (7-4). No quality win to offset four FCS losses.
Mercer (7-4). Lost H2H to TN-Chattanooga.
Youngstown State (7-4). No ranked win. Bad loss to SW Missouri State.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/arti ... s-playoffs

Auto-Bids

Atlantic Sun/WAC: E. Kentucky
Big Sky: Sacramento State
Big South: Gardner-Webb
Colonial: William & Mary
Missouri Valley: SD State
Northeastern: St. Francis (PA)
Ohio Valley: SE Missouri State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: Davidson (Because Conference Champ St. Thomas (MN) is ineligible for the playoffs due to FCS transition.)
Southern: Samford
Southland: SE Louisiana

Non-Playoff Conference Champs

Ivy: Yale
MEAC: NC-Central (Celebration Bowl Berth)/Howard
SWAC East: Jackson State
SWAC West: Prairie View A&M
SWAC Championship Game: Prairie View A&M at Jackson State 1300 PST SAT 03 DEC 22 (Winner gets Celebration Bowl Berth)

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/arti ... fiying-bid
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by SuperHornet »

HERO Bracketology 9.0

Seeds

1. Sacramento State
2. SD State
3. MT State
4. ND State
5. Samford
6. William & Mary
7. Weber State
8. Holy Cross

Auto-Bids

See Above in NCAA post.

At-Large Bids

MT State (seed)
ND State (seed)
Weber State (seed)
Incarnate Word
Furman
Elon
Richmond
New Hampshire
Idaho

Last 4 In

Fordham
TN-Chattanooga
North Dakota
UC Davis

First 5 Out

Delaware
Montana
Mercer
Youngstown State
FL A&M

Bracket

TN-Chattanooga vs. SE Missouri State ---> 1 Sacramento State
New Hampshire vs. Fordham ---> 8 Holy Cross

UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word ---> 4 ND State
E. Kentucky vs. Gardner-Webb ---> 5 Samford

Richmond vs. Furman ---> 2 SD State
Elon vs. Davidson ---> 7 Weber Stae

Idaho vs. North Dakota ---> 3 MT State
SE Louisiana vs. St. Francis (PA) ---> 6 William & Mary

You can see the rationales in the link.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/
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My Thoughts

Post by Mvemjsunpx »

11 Auto-Bids

Big Sky - Sac State
Southland - SE Louisiana
MVFC - South Dakota St.
OVC - SEMO
AQ8 - Eastern Kentucky
Patriot - Holy Cross
NEC - St. Francis (PA)
CAA - William & Mary
Big South - Gardner-Webb
SoCon - Samford
Pioneer - Davidson

6 At-Large Locks

Montana St.
Weber St.
Incarnate Word
North Dakota St.
Richmond
Furman

2 Should Be In, but Not Quite Locks

Idaho
New Hampshire

13 Bubble Teams (NOT ranking order)

UC Davis
Montana
North Dakota
Youngstown St.
Northern Iowa
Tennessee-Martin
Austin Peay
Fordham
Delaware (I personally think UD has better than a bubble resume, but I doubt the committee will look at it that way)
Rhode Island
Mercer
Chattanooga
Florida A&M


That means 5 spots for those 13 teams. I'm guessing Delaware, Rhody, and Fordham will be in, while UNI, UTM, Austin Peay, and FAMU are long shots. So that means the last 2 spots could really go to any of these 6 teams: Davis, Montana, NoDak, Youngstown, Mercer, UTC. Chattanooga will likely be considered ahead of Mercer because of the H2H win, and NoDak will likely be considered ahead of Youngstown for the same reason. I also think Davis should be ahead of Montana because of better common-opponent results (Idaho results, MSU margins), though I'm skeptical the committee will see it that way.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

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That's a mature way to look at things, Venus. A lot of Griz fans will go through the roof if a 6-5 Manure Pile team gets in over Montana at 7-4. And they might well have a point.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by Mvemjsunpx »

SuperHornet wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:02 pm That's a mature way to look at things, Venus. A lot of Griz fans will go through the roof if a 6-5 Manure Pile team gets in over Montana at 7-4. And they might well have a point.
I think Griz fans have already used up their "going through the roof" energy this weekend. ;) :?
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by uofmman1122 »

SuperHornet wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:02 pm That's a mature way to look at things, Venus. A lot of Griz fans will go through the roof if a 6-5 Manure Pile team gets in over Montana at 7-4. And they might well have a point.
In common opponents, UC Davis is 3-3 while we are 2-4. Their loss to SDSU is also better than any win we have.

This is gonna test the so-called 7-win rule, for sure. I would not be shocked if they got in and we didn't.
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Re: My Thoughts

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Mvemjsunpx wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:52 pm 11 Auto-Bids

Big Sky - Sac State
Southland - SE Louisiana
MVFC - South Dakota St.
OVC - SEMO
AQ8 - Eastern Kentucky
Patriot - Holy Cross
NEC - St. Francis (PA)
CAA - William & Mary
Big South - Gardner-Webb
SoCon - Samford
Pioneer - Davidson

6 At-Large Locks

Montana St.
Weber St.
Incarnate Word
North Dakota St.
Richmond
Furman

2 Should Be In, but Not Quite Locks

Idaho
New Hampshire

13 Bubble Teams (NOT ranking order)

UC Davis
Montana
North Dakota
Youngstown St.
Northern Iowa
Tennessee-Martin
Austin Peay
Fordham
Delaware (I personally think UD has better than a bubble resume, but I doubt the committee will look at it that way)
Rhode Island
Mercer
Chattanooga
Florida A&M


That means 5 spots for those 13 teams. I'm guessing Delaware, Rhody, and Fordham will be in, while UNI, UTM, Austin Peay, and FAMU are long shots. So that means the last 2 spots could really go to any of these 6 teams: Davis, Montana, NoDak, Youngstown, Mercer, UTC. Chattanooga will likely be considered ahead of Mercer because of the H2H win, and NoDak will likely be considered ahead of Youngstown for the same reason. I also think Davis should be ahead of Montana because of better common-opponent results (Idaho results, MSU margins), though I'm skeptical the committee will see it that way.
What hurts Delaware is losing 3 of their last 4, 4 of last 6. Youngstown got boinket a few years back for the same thing.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by kalm »

Best OOC wins for the SoCon and CAA: UD - Navy, Elon - St Francis, Richmond-Charlotte, Samford - GW.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by JoltinJoe »

kalm wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:43 pm
JoltinJoe wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:25 pm

Montana as it stands probably is the last team in; Delaware is out, as I see it.

It's hard to leave out a team that will finish in the top 20 (currently #14 in the coaches' poll) with the nation's No. 1 offense and Payton award finalist, playing in the nation's leading media market -- especially when its only two losses are to a top 6 team in that ridiculous overtime system by one point; and to an FBS conference champion by a touchdown. Fordham is in.
With the 75th SoS and no wins over a team with a winning record (although you do have 3 wins against the CAA) But think there’s a decent chance of it regardless.

Delaware’s FCS win and decent win over URI help their cause.

There are 8, 7-4 between the BSC, Valley, SoCon, and CAA. They’ll all be vying with Fordham and FAMU (ugh), for 5 spots.
The funny thing is we scheduled three CAA teams and our OOC conference schedule (which also included an FBS team that wound up winning its conference) was being called aggressive at the beginning of the season. But all three CAA teams wound up have unexpectedly down years. If those teams have even an average season, our SOS would be a LOT higher.

If our two losses were to average teams, I could see a 7-4 team getting in before us. But the two losses were in OT by one point on the road to the #6 team in FCS; and to the champion of the (FBS) MAC by what was really one point on the road (they did return a fumble on a multi-lateral play on the last play of the game to make it 7).
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by kalm »

JoltinJoe wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 7:47 am
kalm wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:43 pm

With the 75th SoS and no wins over a team with a winning record (although you do have 3 wins against the CAA) But think there’s a decent chance of it regardless.

Delaware’s FCS win and decent win over URI help their cause.

There are 8, 7-4 between the BSC, Valley, SoCon, and CAA. They’ll all be vying with Fordham and FAMU (ugh), for 5 spots.
The funny thing is we scheduled three CAA teams and our OOC conference schedule (which also included an FBS team that wound up winning its conference) was being called aggressive at the beginning of the season. But all three CAA teams wound up have unexpectedly down years. If those teams have even an average season, our SOS would be a LOT higher.

If our two losses were to average teams, I could see a 7-4 team getting in before us. But the two losses were in OT by one point on the road to the #6 team in FCS; and to the champion of the (FBS) MAC by what was really one point on the road (they did return a fumble on a multi-lateral play on the last play of the game to make it 7).
Yep. I’ve been vouching for you guys on our AGS podcast for all of these same reasons. The wide scheduling disparity in our subdivision makes for fun debates and tough selections.
CAA and SoCon have similar issues. Nearly all of the quality wins come against the conference. I get the scheduling but the committees job is to look beyond assumptions that all records and conferences are comparable.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by Mvemjsunpx »

I just realized I forgot Elon as an at-large lock, so there are 7 at-large locks and just 4 spots for the 13 bubble teams I listed. :oops:
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by uofmman1122 »

At large field according to AGS:

1. Montana St (3)
2. North Dakota St (4)
3. Incarnate Word (5)
4. Weber St (8)
5. Furman (10)
6. Elon (11)
7. Richmond (12)
8. UNH (15)
9. Idaho (16)
10. Fordham (18)
11. Mercer (19)
12. UND (20)
13. Montana (21)

And the first 4 left out:

Chattanooga (22)
UC Davis (23)
Rhode Island (24)
Delaware (25)

Not likely how it's going to end up, but the first post-season poll that's usually pretty close.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by kalm »

uofmman1122 wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 9:31 am At large field according to AGS:

1. Montana St (3)
2. North Dakota St (4)
3. Incarnate Word (5)
4. Weber St (8)
5. Furman (10)
6. Elon (11)
7. Richmond (12)
8. UNH (15)
9. Idaho (16)
10. Fordham (18)
11. Mercer (19)
12. UND (20)
13. Montana (21)

And the first 4 left out:

Chattanooga (22)
UC Davis (23)
Rhode Island (24)
Delaware (25)

Not likely how it's going to end up, but the first post-season poll that's usually pretty close.
Just one wrong. I might have to go look and see how Stats did.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by uofmman1122 »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:20 am
uofmman1122 wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 9:31 am At large field according to AGS:

1. Montana St (3)
2. North Dakota St (4)
3. Incarnate Word (5)
4. Weber St (8)
5. Furman (10)
6. Elon (11)
7. Richmond (12)
8. UNH (15)
9. Idaho (16)
10. Fordham (18)
11. Mercer (19)
12. UND (20)
13. Montana (21)

And the first 4 left out:

Chattanooga (22)
UC Davis (23)
Rhode Island (24)
Delaware (25)

Not likely how it's going to end up, but the first post-season poll that's usually pretty close.
Just one wrong. I might have to go look and see how Stats did.
My personal conspiracy take:

There have been a lot of loud SOCON voters on AGS that pumped up the value of some teams (namely Mercer), and more than a couple Eeyore Delaware voters that may have been dogging them a little too hard.

As for Montana making it, I am happy but honestly kind of shocked. Davis fans have a right to be pissed today.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by kalm »

uofmman1122 wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:38 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:20 am

Just one wrong. I might have to go look and see how Stats did.
My personal conspiracy take:

There have been a lot of loud SOCON voters on AGS that pumped up the value of some teams (namely Mercer), and more than a couple Eeyore Delaware voters that may have been dogging them a little too hard.

As for Montana making it, I am happy but honestly kind of shocked. Davis fans have a right to be pissed today.
“Eeyore” is exactly what I used to call them…lol.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:59 am
uofmman1122 wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:38 am
My personal conspiracy take:

There have been a lot of loud SOCON voters on AGS that pumped up the value of some teams (namely Mercer), and more than a couple Eeyore Delaware voters that may have been dogging them a little too hard.

As for Montana making it, I am happy but honestly kind of shocked. Davis fans have a right to be pissed today.
“Eeyore” is exactly what I used to call them…lol.
More true words have never been spoken. A good section of the crew that whines all the time on GoHens is furious that we're in the playoffs. But then again, some of them were even pissed when we beat Navy this year. Some people value their access to the program more than the success of the program.
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by BDKJMU »

A hypothetical like this is probably about as worthless as tits on a bull, but going to do it anyway. 5 FULL seasons 2016-2021 JMU went 8-0/8-0/6-2/8-0/7-1 in CAA play. So its probably safe to assume if JMU HADN"T moved up would have gone 10-1/8-0 or 9-2/7-1. Looking at the CAA and the seeds, what would a
-9-2/7-1 JMU that lost to W&M have been seeded? Maybe or probably unseeded. :shock:
9-2/7-1 JMU that beat W&M have been seeded? W&M would have been out, and JMU would have slid in to at least #8, or maybe #6-7 (depending on who to and how close the loss was, and how many blowout vs close wins).
-10-1/8-0 JMU? I think about #3, bumping NDSU & MT State each back a spot & W&M out. Still wouldn't have gotten to host NDSU, but at least wouldn't have potentially faced them till Frisco..
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Re: 2022 Bracketology

Post by BDKJMU »

Not gonna miss the FCS regular season, but unlike some of my fellow JMU fans claim, I'm gonna miss those playoff runs. The last 6 seasons 5 qtrs, 5 semis, & 3 trips to Frisco. 7 of those 10 qtrs & semis at home. Course this season we get nothing, even with 1st place in the SBC East if win tomorrow. Like someone on the JMU board said earlier in the season, making the SBC title game would be about like making the FCS semis. Maybe. For the 1st few seasons making a toilet bowl might be like making Frisco for the novelty of it, but that's gonna wear off, as The SBC bowl tie ins now aren't impressive (heck one is in Frisco). Then its going to be making the SBC title game, and trying to be the top one to two G5 teams going 12-1 and making an NY6/12 team playoff or bust.

Anyway, will follow the scores of 1st 2 FCS playoff rounds. Definitely will watch some of the quarterfinals, semis, & NC game. Heck, the FCS quarterfinals as I recall will have that weekend to themselves, as the FBS conference champ games will be over, but the bowl games won't have started (most of which I could care less about except for some of the NY6 & the 4 team playoff).

Good luck to all the teams, and as a Virginian, I say go W&M (but not UR)...
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