Playoff Prognostication
Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:36 am
We're probably at about that point in the season where we can at least TENTATIVELY look at the playoffs (including non-participating teams who WOULD be discussed if they DID participate. Naturally, many of these will be discarded later, but I think that we can have a bit of fun with this now. (For sake of discussion, I'll technically separate the WAC from the A-Sun, but we'll see what happens....)
Atlantic Sun
E. Kentucky (5-2, 1-0)
Jacksonville State (3-3, 0-0)
C. Arkansas (2-4, 0-1)
E. KY looks to be the real deal. Jax State made some noise early, but are slowing down. UCA has lost something since the spring season. Of these three, EKU looks to be the only one to get in. As noted below with the WAC, SHSU will claim the AQ7 auto-bid, while EKU gets an at-large.
Big Sky
E. Washington (7-0, 4-0)
Montana State (6-1, 4-0)
Sacramento State (4-2, 3-0)
UC Davis (6-1, 3-1)
N. Arizona (3-3, 2-1)
Portland State (3-4, 2-2)
Montana (4-2, 1-2)
This is about as far as I'm willing to consider for the Sky. EWU, MSU, and UCD appear to be locks. If Montana gets themselves straightened out, it'll be between them and Sac for the 4th spot. If we get five (which I doubt), those are the five. NAU and PSU won't get in. EWU will be the lone seed out of the bunch, however many get in.
Big South
Monmouth (4-3, 3-0)
Kennesaw State (5-1, 2-0)
All others are kaput, IMO. The Big South will be a one-bid conference this year, and the auto-bid goes to Kennesaw.
CAA
Villanova (5-1, 3-0)
James Madison (5-1, 3-1)
Rhode Island (5-1, 3-1)
William & Mary (4-2, 2-1)
Elon (3-3, 2-1)
Towson State (3-3, 2-1)
New Hampshire (3-3, 2-1)
Delaware (3-3, 2-2)
All others are out. I think the CAA will get at least three bids, to wit Villanova, JMU, and Rhode Island. If either UNH or Delaware get their act together, they MIGHT have a shot, particularly if CAA gets more than three bids. JMU will have a seed. I think B&M, Elon, and Towson State are likely staying home.
Ivy League
Princeton (5-0, 2-0)
Harvard (5-0, 2-0)
Dartmouth (5-0, 2-0)
Columbia (4-1, 1-1)
Obviously not participating, but this seems to be a rather competitive year for the Ivies. Were they to play ball with the rest of us, I think it would be a crap shoot between Princeton and Harvard for one bid.
MEAC
SC State (2-4, 1-0)
Howard (2-4, 1-0)
Norfolk State (4-2, 0-0)
A downer year for the MEAC. As of last report, they're holding out for the Celebration Bowl, but if they were to play ball, the only team with a real shot would be Norfolk State with the auto-bid. As it is, I fully expect Norfolk State to get blown out in the Celebration Bowl....
MVFC
S. Illinois (6-1, 4-0)
North Dakota State (6-0, 3-0)
South Dakota (5-2, 3-1)
SW Missouri State (4-2, 3-1)
South Dakota State (5-1, 2-1)
This is about as far as it goes for the MVFC, but I think ALL of these get in. NDSU probably gets a seed.
NEC
Duquesne (4-1, 2-0)
Bryant (4-3, 2-1)
Sacred Heart (4-3, 2-1)
Saint Francis (PA) (3-4, 2-1)
This will be a one-bid conference, as per usual. Duquesne gets the nod.
OVC
TN-Martin (5-1, 2-0)
SE Missouri State (2-5, 2-1)
TN State (3-3, 1-1)
E. Illinois (1-6, 1-1)
TN Tech (2-5, 1-2)
Murray State (3-3, 0-1)
I only took this likely one-bid league out this far to account for the SLIGHT possibility that Murray State MIGHT get it together in time to claim the auto-bid. I don't think that will happen, however. This league goes to Pat Summitt's alma mater.
Patriot
Fordham (4-3, 2-0)
Colgate (2-5, 2-0)
Holy Cross (4-2, 1-0)
This perennial one-bid conference will go to Holy Cross.
Pioneer
Morehead State (4-2, 3-0)
Davidson (4-1, 3-0)
Marist (3-2, 3-0)
St. Thomas (MN) (4-2, 3-1)
I'm still not sure if St. Thomas is eligible, but for a former D-III school, they're certainly making a lot of noise in their first year. Even if they ARE eligible, it probably won't be enough to take the auto-bid, which is what it will take for a Pioneer team to get in this year. I'm seeing Morehead State.
SoCon
E. TN State (6-1, 3-1)
VMI (5-2, 3-1)
Mercer (4-2, 3-1)
Furman (4-2, 2-1)
I see the SoCon as a two-bid conference at best this year, and those will likely be ETSU and either VMI or Mercer. I'm banking on Mercer.
Southland
SE Louisiana (5-1, 3-0)
Incarnate Word (5-1, 3-0)
The Southland COULD be a two-bid league this year, and if so, it's these two. All others will stay home.
SWAC
Prairie View A&M (5-1, 4-0)
Jackson State (5-1, 3-0)
Alcorn State (4-2, 3-0)
Florida A&M (4-2, 2-1)
Southern (3-3, 2-1)
Grambling State (3-4, 2-2)
AL State (3-3, 2-2)
Prairie View and Jackson State would probably be looking at bids if the SWAC were to participate (IF Prairie View were to take the auto-bid), but they're aiming for the Celebration Bowl instead. I think Jackson State will go and destroy Norfolk State.
WAC
Sam Houston State (5-0, 2-0)
Abilene Christian (4-3, 1-0)
Stephen F. Austin (3-3, 1-1)
Tarleton State (3-3, 1-1)
Again, I'm not sure if Tarleton is eligible yet, but it's probably a moot point. They're not getting in. SFA MIGHT, if they fix whatever problems they have. I think Abilene will fall short. For AQ7 purposes, SHSU gets the auto-bid (and a seed), and EKU gets an at-large.
Seeds
1. Eastern Washington
2. Sam Houston State
3. North Dakota State
4. James Madison
Auto-Bids
AQ7: SHSU (Seed)
Southland: SELA
SoCon: ETSU
Pioneer: Morehead State
Patriot: Holy Cross
OVC: TN-Martin
NEC: Duquesne
MVFC: North Dakota State (Seed)
CAA: James Madison (Seed)
Big South: Kennesaw State
Big Sky: Eastern Washington (Seed)
At-Large Bids:
AQ7: E. Kentucky
Big Sky: Montana State, UC Davis, Sacramento State, Montana
Big South: N/A
CAA: Villanova, Rhode Island, Delaware
MVFC: SIU, South Dakota, South Dakota State, SW Missouri State
NEC: N/A
OVC: N/A
Patriot: N/A
Pioneer: N/A
SoCon: Mercer
Southland: Incarnate Word
Atlantic Sun
E. Kentucky (5-2, 1-0)
Jacksonville State (3-3, 0-0)
C. Arkansas (2-4, 0-1)
E. KY looks to be the real deal. Jax State made some noise early, but are slowing down. UCA has lost something since the spring season. Of these three, EKU looks to be the only one to get in. As noted below with the WAC, SHSU will claim the AQ7 auto-bid, while EKU gets an at-large.
Big Sky
E. Washington (7-0, 4-0)
Montana State (6-1, 4-0)
Sacramento State (4-2, 3-0)
UC Davis (6-1, 3-1)
N. Arizona (3-3, 2-1)
Portland State (3-4, 2-2)
Montana (4-2, 1-2)
This is about as far as I'm willing to consider for the Sky. EWU, MSU, and UCD appear to be locks. If Montana gets themselves straightened out, it'll be between them and Sac for the 4th spot. If we get five (which I doubt), those are the five. NAU and PSU won't get in. EWU will be the lone seed out of the bunch, however many get in.
Big South
Monmouth (4-3, 3-0)
Kennesaw State (5-1, 2-0)
All others are kaput, IMO. The Big South will be a one-bid conference this year, and the auto-bid goes to Kennesaw.
CAA
Villanova (5-1, 3-0)
James Madison (5-1, 3-1)
Rhode Island (5-1, 3-1)
William & Mary (4-2, 2-1)
Elon (3-3, 2-1)
Towson State (3-3, 2-1)
New Hampshire (3-3, 2-1)
Delaware (3-3, 2-2)
All others are out. I think the CAA will get at least three bids, to wit Villanova, JMU, and Rhode Island. If either UNH or Delaware get their act together, they MIGHT have a shot, particularly if CAA gets more than three bids. JMU will have a seed. I think B&M, Elon, and Towson State are likely staying home.
Ivy League
Princeton (5-0, 2-0)
Harvard (5-0, 2-0)
Dartmouth (5-0, 2-0)
Columbia (4-1, 1-1)
Obviously not participating, but this seems to be a rather competitive year for the Ivies. Were they to play ball with the rest of us, I think it would be a crap shoot between Princeton and Harvard for one bid.
MEAC
SC State (2-4, 1-0)
Howard (2-4, 1-0)
Norfolk State (4-2, 0-0)
A downer year for the MEAC. As of last report, they're holding out for the Celebration Bowl, but if they were to play ball, the only team with a real shot would be Norfolk State with the auto-bid. As it is, I fully expect Norfolk State to get blown out in the Celebration Bowl....
MVFC
S. Illinois (6-1, 4-0)
North Dakota State (6-0, 3-0)
South Dakota (5-2, 3-1)
SW Missouri State (4-2, 3-1)
South Dakota State (5-1, 2-1)
This is about as far as it goes for the MVFC, but I think ALL of these get in. NDSU probably gets a seed.
NEC
Duquesne (4-1, 2-0)
Bryant (4-3, 2-1)
Sacred Heart (4-3, 2-1)
Saint Francis (PA) (3-4, 2-1)
This will be a one-bid conference, as per usual. Duquesne gets the nod.
OVC
TN-Martin (5-1, 2-0)
SE Missouri State (2-5, 2-1)
TN State (3-3, 1-1)
E. Illinois (1-6, 1-1)
TN Tech (2-5, 1-2)
Murray State (3-3, 0-1)
I only took this likely one-bid league out this far to account for the SLIGHT possibility that Murray State MIGHT get it together in time to claim the auto-bid. I don't think that will happen, however. This league goes to Pat Summitt's alma mater.
Patriot
Fordham (4-3, 2-0)
Colgate (2-5, 2-0)
Holy Cross (4-2, 1-0)
This perennial one-bid conference will go to Holy Cross.
Pioneer
Morehead State (4-2, 3-0)
Davidson (4-1, 3-0)
Marist (3-2, 3-0)
St. Thomas (MN) (4-2, 3-1)
I'm still not sure if St. Thomas is eligible, but for a former D-III school, they're certainly making a lot of noise in their first year. Even if they ARE eligible, it probably won't be enough to take the auto-bid, which is what it will take for a Pioneer team to get in this year. I'm seeing Morehead State.
SoCon
E. TN State (6-1, 3-1)
VMI (5-2, 3-1)
Mercer (4-2, 3-1)
Furman (4-2, 2-1)
I see the SoCon as a two-bid conference at best this year, and those will likely be ETSU and either VMI or Mercer. I'm banking on Mercer.
Southland
SE Louisiana (5-1, 3-0)
Incarnate Word (5-1, 3-0)
The Southland COULD be a two-bid league this year, and if so, it's these two. All others will stay home.
SWAC
Prairie View A&M (5-1, 4-0)
Jackson State (5-1, 3-0)
Alcorn State (4-2, 3-0)
Florida A&M (4-2, 2-1)
Southern (3-3, 2-1)
Grambling State (3-4, 2-2)
AL State (3-3, 2-2)
Prairie View and Jackson State would probably be looking at bids if the SWAC were to participate (IF Prairie View were to take the auto-bid), but they're aiming for the Celebration Bowl instead. I think Jackson State will go and destroy Norfolk State.
WAC
Sam Houston State (5-0, 2-0)
Abilene Christian (4-3, 1-0)
Stephen F. Austin (3-3, 1-1)
Tarleton State (3-3, 1-1)
Again, I'm not sure if Tarleton is eligible yet, but it's probably a moot point. They're not getting in. SFA MIGHT, if they fix whatever problems they have. I think Abilene will fall short. For AQ7 purposes, SHSU gets the auto-bid (and a seed), and EKU gets an at-large.
Seeds
1. Eastern Washington
2. Sam Houston State
3. North Dakota State
4. James Madison
Auto-Bids
AQ7: SHSU (Seed)
Southland: SELA
SoCon: ETSU
Pioneer: Morehead State
Patriot: Holy Cross
OVC: TN-Martin
NEC: Duquesne
MVFC: North Dakota State (Seed)
CAA: James Madison (Seed)
Big South: Kennesaw State
Big Sky: Eastern Washington (Seed)
At-Large Bids:
AQ7: E. Kentucky
Big Sky: Montana State, UC Davis, Sacramento State, Montana
Big South: N/A
CAA: Villanova, Rhode Island, Delaware
MVFC: SIU, South Dakota, South Dakota State, SW Missouri State
NEC: N/A
OVC: N/A
Patriot: N/A
Pioneer: N/A
SoCon: Mercer
Southland: Incarnate Word
