STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by SuperHornet »

1. Although I stand by my faith in an undefeated season for Sac, I hereby retract my claim that UC Davis should be removed from the poll. Any school with an FBS win, so long as they don't significantly blow it after that, DEFINITELY belongs in the poll.

2. Contrary to the naysayers, it looks like UNI will have a VERY good season...after they lose in Sac next week. LOL.

3. Congratulations to the 6 scalp-takers, and to those who came close (I'm defining "close" as within 10 points).
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:51 pm
clenz wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:40 pm
So...

uh...

Care to wager on the game this weekend given we have now seen both teams play?

Well, I've watched both teams play. I doubt you watched the UNI game

I have avatars signatures turned off. Couldn't tell you what I have for either, if I have one at all. Put them on the line?
Saw maybe 10 minutes of the UNI-ISU game. I plan to watch it on replay sometime this week. I'll wager even though I don't think the Hornets win. I had this game as a coin flip pre-season. Based on week 1 performances UNI should win. Hornet OL looked awful and out of shape.

$50 to the winner's local animal shelter, paid for by the loser?
I don't know the local animal shelters around here, however, I'm game for that.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by SDHornet »

clenz wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:07 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:51 pm

Saw maybe 10 minutes of the UNI-ISU game. I plan to watch it on replay sometime this week. I'll wager even though I don't think the Hornets win. I had this game as a coin flip pre-season. Based on week 1 performances UNI should win. Hornet OL looked awful and out of shape.

$50 to the winner's local animal shelter, paid for by the loser?
I don't know the local animal shelters around here, however, I'm game for that.
I'm willing to go with another charity of your choosing. Makes no difference to me so long as it's for a good cause. You good with $50? Or is that breaking the bank for you?
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

SDHornet wrote:
clenz wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:07 pm I don't know the local animal shelters around here, however, I'm game for that.
I'm willing to go with another charity of your choosing. Makes no difference to me so long as it's for a good cause. You good with $50? Or is that breaking the bank for you?
50 is fine.


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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by SDHornet »

clenz wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 5:27 pm
SDHornet wrote:
I'm willing to go with another charity of your choosing. Makes no difference to me so long as it's for a good cause. You good with $50? Or is that breaking the bank for you?
50 is fine.


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:thumb:
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by UNI88 »

SDHornet wrote:
clenz wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:07 pm I don't know the local animal shelters around here, however, I'm game for that.
I'm willing to go with another charity of your choosing. Makes no difference to me so long as it's for a good cause. You good with $50? Or is that breaking the bank for you?
Animal shelter or another worthwhile charity is an excellent bet. Props!

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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

Not worried about the defense huh?

5 forced TOs and there's a quarter go to. :lol: :lol: :lol:

That QB change sparked UNI just a bit.

I did some looking at animal shelters in town, this one seemed to be the highest rated

https://greatnonprofits.org/org/dogs-forever
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

6 TO forced
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by SDHornet »

clenz wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:43 pm Not worried about the defense huh?

5 forced TOs and there's a quarter go to. :lol: :lol: :lol:

That QB change sparked UNI just a bit.

I did some looking at animal shelters in town, this one seemed to be the highest rated

https://greatnonprofits.org/org/dogs-forever
QB play was terrible but the Hornet D did great in the first half. The move away from O'Hara to Dunniway cost the Hornets the game IMO, and that move away from McElwain was brilliant. Didn't expect the Hornet to have a lead at half.

$50 Donation made. :thumb:
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

SDHornet wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:39 pm
clenz wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:43 pm Not worried about the defense huh?

5 forced TOs and there's a quarter go to. :lol: :lol: :lol:

That QB change sparked UNI just a bit.

I did some looking at animal shelters in town, this one seemed to be the highest rated

https://greatnonprofits.org/org/dogs-forever
QB play was terrible but the Hornet D did great in the first half. The move away from O'Hara to Dunniway cost the Hornets the game IMO, and that move away from McElwain was brilliant. Didn't expect the Hornet to have a lead at half.

$50 Donation made. :thumb:
The first half was exactly what I expected. UNI defense doing enough to make it so it shouldn't be close, and the offense making it close.

The move to Day changed everything. Youl could see the energy on both sides of the ball for UNI go up about 39 levels.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by BDKJMU »

SuperHornet wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:50 am 1. Although I stand by my faith in an undefeated season for Sac, I hereby retract my claim that UC Davis should be removed from the poll. Any school with an FBS win, so long as they don't significantly blow it after that, DEFINITELY belongs in the poll.

2. Contrary to the naysayers, it looks like UNI will have a VERY good season...after they lose in Sac next week. LOL.

3. Congratulations to the 6 scalp-takers, and to those who came close (I'm defining "close" as within 10 points).
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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clenz wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:06 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:39 pm

QB play was terrible but the Hornet D did great in the first half. The move away from O'Hara to Dunniway cost the Hornets the game IMO, and that move away from McElwain was brilliant. Didn't expect the Hornet to have a lead at half.

$50 Donation made. :thumb:
The first half was exactly what I expected. UNI defense doing enough to make it so it shouldn't be close, and the offense making it close.

The move to Day changed everything. Youl could see the energy on both sides of the ball for UNI go up about 39 levels.
Well you gotta give credit to the Hornet D for forcing UNI's hand in making that QB switch. And on our side of the ball Taylor made a terrible QB switch. Game turned on a dime on following those halftime adjustments.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:23 pm
clenz wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:06 pm

The first half was exactly what I expected. UNI defense doing enough to make it so it shouldn't be close, and the offense making it close.

The move to Day changed everything. Youl could see the energy on both sides of the ball for UNI go up about 39 levels.
Well you gotta give credit to the Hornet D for forcing UNI's hand in making that QB switch. And on our side of the ball Taylor made a terrible QB switch. Game turned on a dime on following those halftime adjustments.
If you think that one half forced the switch you've watched zero UNI football the last 3 seasons.

Will should have been benched 2.5 years ago. There just wasn't someone as good as Day on the roster to give the job too. Only reason Will played at Iowa State, i"ve since learned, is Farley didn't want to have Day make his first college start (and snaps in 3 years) in that environment

In the spring he went 72-141 (51%) with 1 TD and 2 picks. His frehsman season was good in terms of yards with 2778 and 20 TD to 7 INT but did so at 53% completion

He isn't good. Other teams fans seemed to see him as something of a scrambling magician. What he is is undersized, can't make any throws accurately because weak arm leads to bad throwing motion but runs around a ton in the backfield to make it seem like he makes a ton of plays. UNI fans have been calling for him to be benched since about the 2nd game this past spring. UNI's message board was overwhelmingly pissed off that he started the final game of the spring after missing the two previous games to covid protocols.

These are his games in order, excluding Iowa State's two games. Not exactly the guy others seem to think he is

Comp Att % Yards
17 25 0.68 262
15 26 0.58 131
16 29 0.55 219
10 20 0.50 235
15 29 0.52 233
8 17 0.47 213
14 27 0.52 238
14 28 0.50 189
11 20 0.55 167
12 24 0.50 85
10 18 0.56 154
13 27 0.48 180
11 20 0.55 124
12 30 0.40 114
19 29 0.66 165
15 30 0.50 178
14 33 0.42 148
10 22 0.45 254
14 27 0.52 193
Average 0.52 183

The reason I took ISU games out is somehow he played well in both of those and those are the two games people judge him on for some reason.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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clenz wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:26 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:23 pm

Well you gotta give credit to the Hornet D for forcing UNI's hand in making that QB switch. And on our side of the ball Taylor made a terrible QB switch. Game turned on a dime on following those halftime adjustments.
If you think that one half forced the switch you've watched zero UNI football the last 3 seasons.

Will should have been benched 2.5 years ago. There just wasn't someone as good as Day on the roster to give the job too. Only reason Will played at Iowa State, i"ve since learned, is Farley didn't want to have Day make his first college start (and snaps in 3 years) in that environment
Then he would have started last night, no? :lol:
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:27 pm
clenz wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:26 pm

If you think that one half forced the switch you've watched zero UNI football the last 3 seasons.

Will should have been benched 2.5 years ago. There just wasn't someone as good as Day on the roster to give the job too. Only reason Will played at Iowa State, i"ve since learned, is Farley didn't want to have Day make his first college start (and snaps in 3 years) in that environment
Then he would have started last night, no? :lol:
I added more context above...but...you don't understand how Farley works.

If anything I'll say thank you for being another failed attempt at throwing the ball for Will. It might actually get us an offense.

In 20 non-Iowa State starts (including Sac) he finished with a completion percent over .500 just half the time. He was Tim Tebow. The highs make people go "Oh wow" but 98% of his game is not good.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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How you feeling about that season record bet now, SD?
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:04 pm How you feeling about that season record bet now, SD?
Fine. We'll clear 4 wins easily.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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clenz wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:50 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:27 pm

Then he would have started last night, no? :lol:
I added more context above...but...you don't understand how Farley works.

If anything I'll say thank you for being another failed attempt at throwing the ball for Will. It might actually get us an offense.

In 20 non-Iowa State starts (including Sac) he finished with a completion percent over .500 just half the time. He was Tim Tebow. The highs make people go "Oh wow" but 98% of his game is not good.
Not sure why Day wouldn't be the guy after last night. There was a clear difference in execution between the 2.

And no I don't understand or care how Farley works. Not buying that the plan was to play Day in the 2nd half all along, especially after a first half in which the only UNI points came on a gift fumble deep in our own end.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:19 pm
clenz wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:50 pm
I added more context above...but...you don't understand how Farley works.

If anything I'll say thank you for being another failed attempt at throwing the ball for Will. It might actually get us an offense.

In 20 non-Iowa State starts (including Sac) he finished with a completion percent over .500 just half the time. He was Tim Tebow. The highs make people go "Oh wow" but 98% of his game is not good.
Not sure why Day wouldn't be the guy after last night. There was a clear difference in execution between the 2.

And no I don't understand or care how Farley works. Not buying that the plan was to play Day in the 2nd half all along, especially after a first half in which the only UNI points came on a gift fumble deep in our own end.
It wasn't "the plan" to play Day in the second half. The plan was as soon as will fucked up he was out. It just happened to be this week and not next.

Day is the guy after last night. Had will not had 2 years as the starter before Iowa State that Theo had to overcome in Farley's mind he does start in Ames.

Farley doesn't change QBs once he finds the guy he "connects with". It doesn't matter if that QB is shit or not, if he likes the effort that kid gives it's who he sticks with. Go look at Aaron Bailey and Brion Carnes careers and try to figure out why they kept starter other than Farley liked them. The UNI offense you saw in the first half is what we have watched for about a decade. I'm not kidding. This would be Wills third year starting. We had 2 years of Aaron Bailey who had about a 54% completion rate for his career for 2 years and for 2 years before that we had Brion Carnes who was at 46% of his career. At least Bailey ran for about 2100 yards in his 2 years starting for UNI. Carnes ran for about 100 even though he had 4.4 speed. Will is Brion Carnes, but white.

Day was going to get his shot this year because Will was going to do what he did last night - and has done for 2 years - be meh at best and below average 95% of the time. There just wasn't a Theo Day on campus before this year to take it away from Will - and honestly with Farley even if he was on campus last year Will still would have started every game.

So what I'm saying is, it's not like the Sac Sate defense forced our offense to be bad to the point that Farley had to try something different. It's that our offense continued to be complete dog shit and last night just happened to be when the change was made.

FWIW UNI had something like 150 yards rushing at half time. The last time UNI had 150 yards rushing for a game was years ago. So if anything Farley could have looked at it and gone "We're actually successful right now at establishing the LOS. Just keep pounding it and eventually Will and a WR will hook up for a big play. In the meantime we just need our defense to do what they do every week, force a shit load of TOs and put the offense in a position where they can maybe broken clock their way to a score." That's normally what Farley does.


For context at how bad UNI's offense has been

I went back to the 50 games before yesterday. The reason I went with that number is 50 just seemed like a good round number, and a large enough sample size to get a basis to answer most questions

In the 50 games prior to yesterday UNI had 4+ offensive touchdowns just 11 times and had 5+ offensive touchdown just 4 times.

Scoring on four consecutive possessions happened for just the third time. Against SUU in 2019 there was scores on 5 straight possessions with 3 TD and 2 FG (TD TD FG TD FG) and Hampton 2018 also had 4 straight TD, with a FG for the fifth in a row but that was spread over two quarters. This is the first time UNI scored 4 offensive TD in one quarter.



IOW that third quarter offense was the most productive offense this program has seen in at least 50 games even when looking at entire games - and the reality is that trend goes back to about 2011 when UNI went 11-3 and finished the season ranked #3
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:16 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:04 pm How you feeling about that season record bet now, SD?
Fine. We'll clear 4 wins easily.
What about YOUR prediction?
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by SuperHornet »

Yes, BDK. I'm bumming right now. Except for that horrible third quarter, apparently sparked by an incredibly stupid decision to change quarterbacks, we had that game won. Mad props to UNI, who recognized our inability to stop them OR to hold onto the ball in the third quarter and took full advantage. (I'm sure you've all seen games where one team tried to give the game away, but the other team couldn't or wouldn't seize the opportunity. UNI was the complete opposite of that.)

I just hope we get all this straightened out before our game with Cal. If we do, we have a chance to get the scalp. If we don't, it's gonna be ugly....
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

Had the game won?

Sac has 3 field goals until midway through the fourth quarter when UNI was dropping 7 15 yards back and playing keep everything in front.

Roughly 45% off sac states yards came in the fourth quarter after UNI scored to go up 4 scores and dropped into a cover 4 prevent the rest of the game.

UNI with a competent QB from the start is up 4 scores at half and the final is closer to 50-16


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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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clenz wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:37 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:19 pm

Not sure why Day wouldn't be the guy after last night. There was a clear difference in execution between the 2.

And no I don't understand or care how Farley works. Not buying that the plan was to play Day in the 2nd half all along, especially after a first half in which the only UNI points came on a gift fumble deep in our own end.
It wasn't "the plan" to play Day in the second half. The plan was as soon as will fucked up he was out. It just happened to be this week and not next.

Day is the guy after last night. Had will not had 2 years as the starter before Iowa State that Theo had to overcome in Farley's mind he does start in Ames.

Farley doesn't change QBs once he finds the guy he "connects with". It doesn't matter if that QB is shit or not, if he likes the effort that kid gives it's who he sticks with. Go look at Aaron Bailey and Brion Carnes careers and try to figure out why they kept starter other than Farley liked them. The UNI offense you saw in the first half is what we have watched for about a decade. I'm not kidding. This would be Wills third year starting. We had 2 years of Aaron Bailey who had about a 54% completion rate for his career for 2 years and for 2 years before that we had Brion Carnes who was at 46% of his career. At least Bailey ran for about 2100 yards in his 2 years starting for UNI. Carnes ran for about 100 even though he had 4.4 speed. Will is Brion Carnes, but white.

Day was going to get his shot this year because Will was going to do what he did last night - and has done for 2 years - be meh at best and below average 95% of the time. There just wasn't a Theo Day on campus before this year to take it away from Will - and honestly with Farley even if he was on campus last year Will still would have started every game.

So what I'm saying is, it's not like the Sac Sate defense forced our offense to be bad to the point that Farley had to try something different. It's that our offense continued to be complete dog shit and last night just happened to be when the change was made.

FWIW UNI had something like 150 yards rushing at half time. The last time UNI had 150 yards rushing for a game was years ago. So if anything Farley could have looked at it and gone "We're actually successful right now at establishing the LOS. Just keep pounding it and eventually Will and a WR will hook up for a big play. In the meantime we just need our defense to do what they do every week, force a shit load of TOs and put the offense in a position where they can maybe broken clock their way to a score." That's normally what Farley does.


For context at how bad UNI's offense has been

I went back to the 50 games before yesterday. The reason I went with that number is 50 just seemed like a good round number, and a large enough sample size to get a basis to answer most questions

In the 50 games prior to yesterday UNI had 4+ offensive touchdowns just 11 times and had 5+ offensive touchdown just 4 times.

Scoring on four consecutive possessions happened for just the third time. Against SUU in 2019 there was scores on 5 straight possessions with 3 TD and 2 FG (TD TD FG TD FG) and Hampton 2018 also had 4 straight TD, with a FG for the fifth in a row but that was spread over two quarters. This is the first time UNI scored 4 offensive TD in one quarter.



IOW that third quarter offense was the most productive offense this program has seen in at least 50 games even when looking at entire games - and the reality is that trend goes back to about 2011 when UNI went 11-3 and finished the season ranked #3
Yeah still not buying the idea that Sac State's defense had no hand in the QB change. All that rushing in the 1st half and the only points came with the gifted field position. Hornet D was getting stops and forcing punts in the first half. That all changed with Day.

Good luck the rest of the season. :thumb:
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

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AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:17 am
SDHornet wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:16 pm

Fine. We'll clear 4 wins easily.
What about YOUR prediction?
I think we can still see 8 wins. I had UNI, Cal and Montucky as the losses. Nothing I've seen so far to change that. Hornets need to take care of the ball better and O'Hara needs to be quicker on his reads but we'll be fine barring a rash of injuries.
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Re: STATS Perform Pre-Season Poll

Post by clenz »

SDHornet wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:07 pm
Yeah still not buying the idea that Sac State's defense had no hand in the QB change. All that rushing in the 1st half and the only points came with the gifted field position. Hornet D was getting stops and forcing punts in the first half. That all changed with Day.

Good luck the rest of the season. :thumb:
[/quote]
If you think that one half alone is what prompted the change then I can't change your mind. If you think your defense is that damn good and want to ignore the last 2 seasons then I can't help you.

If you're defense was that good a simple QB change wouldn't get itself absolutely raped by a kid that wasn't good enough to start (apparently). It wouldn't give up TDs on 4 straight drives to a program that has scored 4 offensive TDs just 10 times in the last 50 games. It wouldn't give up 234 yards rushing at over 5 yards per carry to a team that ran for

45 yards on 26 carries one week prior
3.0 YPC and 103 YPG in the spring using the exact same offensive line and running backs
3.1 YPC and 110 YPG in 2019
3.5 YPC in 2018
3.1 YPC in 2017
3.9 YPC in 2016

Over that time only 7 times did UNI rush for at least 200 yards - and 4 of those 5 came in 16, 17, 18. The last time UNI rushed for 200+ was November 2019. UNI hasn't head a RB break 100 yards in 2 years.

Your defense didn't do fuck all to stop the UNI offense that hasn't been done for at least 6 seasons, including by teams like Western Illinois, Indiana State, Southern Utah, Idaho State, YSU, etc. It doesn't take a good defense to make UNI's offense look bad.

For something as simple as a different QB, not changing the offense at all, being the complete demise of your defense says a lot

Your scoring drives were field goals until late game prevent mode. One started off of a turn over as UNI was marching (which wasn't a TO, Will was down IIRC). You went into halftime with the lead because of a missed UNI field goal.


You ran 89 plays and scored 1 touchdown in garbage time and were an impressively bad 4/17 on third downs. UNI fans have been critical of our OL for years and they manhandled your front. Over 5 yards per carry and no sacks given up while Sac blitzing over half the time. UNI almost never blized and were able to destroy that OL and force your QBs to run for their lives all night and had 3 sacks to go with it.

I'm sure you'll be fine in the Big Sky but that was not a top 25 teams I was told UNI would be playing.

I know the Big Sky isn't known for physical play but if anyone in the big sky even pretends to be physical Sac is going to struggle. The Big Sky is known for it's passing games and given what a QB who hasn't played since a HS game in 2017 did once he was put in the game I can only imagine what those passing offenses can do.

Honestly, giving up 230+ yards rushing to the UNI that has existed for the last 6 years is, frankly, embarrassing.
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