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Despite Gil's sandbagging, NDSU is right between Southern California and West Virginia. Amazing how that works.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I'm a Michigan fan when they aren't playing App. They are vastly overrated. Again.

93henfan wrote:Despite Gil's sandbagging, NDSU is right between Southern California and West Virginia. Amazing how that works.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

93henfan wrote:Despite Gil's sandbagging, NDSU is right between Southern California and West Virginia. Amazing how that works.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

I don't doubt that and didn't claim there was.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

93henfan wrote:Despite Gil's sandbagging, NDSU is right between Southern California and West Virginia. Amazing how that works.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

And Massey appears to be more accurate in the end.

kalm wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

And Massey appears to be more accurate in the end.

Sagarin is very accurate by the end, once all games are statistically connected, much more so than Massey, which is usually garbage.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

93henfan wrote:Despite Gil's sandbagging, NDSU is right between Southern California and West Virginia. Amazing how that works.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

How do you account for #3?

kalm wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

And Massey appears to be more accurate in the end.

Not from my experience. Out of curiosity, I had the Sagarins & Masseys do spread picks in 2015. The Sagarins would've lost money, but they still did way better than the Masseys (they would've lost a boatload of money).

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

93henfan wrote:Despite Gil's sandbagging, NDSU is right between Southern California and West Virginia. Amazing how that works.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

Yeah, preseason Sagarin's are even more worthless than the human polls. Doesn't even factor in returning/lost personnel, coaches, etc. Have to wait until Oct or so to put any stock in it..

BDKJMU wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
I believe Sagarin's preseason rankings are just a weighted average of the past three seasons, so there's no real "prediction" for 2019 there.

Yeah, preseason Sagarin's are even more worthless than the human polls. Doesn't even factor in returning/lost personnel, coaches, etc. Have to wait until Oct or so to put any stock in it..

You're saying exactly what Sagarin says on his page. The power in his ratings begins once all games are statistically connected, which takes a few weeks.

Michigan has a few good recruiting classes, so they should be good at some point.

93henfan wrote:

BDKJMU wrote: Yeah, preseason Sagarin's are even more worthless than the human polls. Doesn't even factor in returning/lost personnel, coaches, etc. Have to wait until Oct or so to put any stock in it..

You're saying exactly what Sagarin says on his page. The power in his ratings begins never.

FYP

89Hen wrote:

93henfan wrote:
You're saying exactly what Sagarin says on his page. The power in his ratings begins never.

FYP

Then you don't bet in the second half of the season. They're immensely helpful as a baseline once the bayesian statistical connectedness is established. Of course, there's always some art involved based on the bettor's own knowledge (and FCS has at least 2-3 games every week that are a STEAL on 5dimes), but Sagarin is the best baseline for calling a line after about week 5 most years.

Nobody knows how any team is going to come out for the first game. Personalities emerge immediately with the establishment of a mean in the critical statistical ratios. The second derivative from those ratios is where the answer is found and the basis of the GAM system.

By derivative we mean a quantity indicating how a function changes when the values of its inputs change.

The second derivative for our purposes is the function after application of the fundamental input values into the function itself.

Results can then be graphed to show the slope of a line on both offense and defense indicating how difficult it is for a team to score on them (upward slope/the opponents hill to climb) or how easy for their team to score (downward slope/the steeper the better). From this you can derive pojected winner, spread and over/under based on the mythical score.

The first game is a decent guess based on the output of last years team. Adjustments can be made by removing yardage for the loss of an offensive player. For Easton Stick it was easy just remove his 2200 yards or so and go from there. For a player like a lineman its more difficult and involves another adjustment to total yards.

If a team has a lot of changes reverting statistics to season mean or higher/lower is another effective way to adjust for a more accurate second derivative early on.

the next biggest problem is the strength of schedule issue. This adjustment has proven difficult to determine but the most promising approach has been using the principal of mean reversion.

the games the GAM has covered so far are not adjusted unless noted. Its game week and we are watching the odds.

This has been an effective system for finding winners and most importantly finding the miss-priced games on 5dimes.

The biggest thing that has changed over the past few years is the amount of respect the FCS squads are getting against the FBS teams. This used to be easy money but they are getting a lot better and the margins between the more accurage GAM and 5 dimes a lot narrower. Sagarin is right there too.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

kalm wrote:


And Massey appears to be more accurate in the end.

Not from my experience. Out of curiosity, I had the Sagarins & Masseys do spread picks in 2015. The Sagarins would've lost money, but they still did way better than the Masseys (they would've lost a boatload of money).

I’m looking at it from a ranking and SOS standpoint rather than single game and spread. Massey made more sense and made it earlier the last couple of years although as noted Sagarin does catch up somewhat in the end. IIRC they’re within a few points of each other in predictive success.