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Happy 4th to all. Before the celebration begins a little college football:

Directy from the GAM:

USD @ OK Sooners
Sat. September 7, 2019
Norman, OK
6 PM

PREDICTED WINNER: OK SOONERS
SPREAD: OK - 36
OVER/UNDER: 72
MYTHICAL SCORE: OK 54 USD 18

To be fair OK spent $242,057/athlete in 2017 while USD, 6th in the MVFC in this category, spent $49,489. This isn’t an absolute factor, NDSU was outspent in a similar fashion at Iowa and KSU and the stat does not correlate to standings but it is another good indicator.

Augustana would be a better match-up, lighting up Sioux Falls and except for a few sour faces in Vermillion an interesting game for all regional fans.

PREDICTED WINNER: Augustana Vikings
SPREAD: Doggies -4
OVER/UNDER: 64
MYTHICAL SCORE: Augustana 33 USD 29*
*2 pt home field awarded

This conclusion was derived using the GAM software package. It incorporated last seasons cumulative statistics. There were no adjustments made to account for strength of schedule or scholarships.

Adjustments may be moot. USD is a middle of the pack team. Augustana fields a pretty good D2 squad going 7-6.

Augustana is a real possibility for the MVFC. I will be tracking them against a weekly schedule of MVFC teams in a mythical season test. how will the Vikings stack up?

On a pure statistical comparison without any adjustments for D2/FCS Augi is an interesting proposition for the MVFC. If they can achieve in the FCS what they now achieve against their D2 opponents they would be a successful MVFC program.

The reason? The Vikings are better against their D2 opponents than a lot of the MVFC teams are against their FCS opponents.

With an equal amount of scholarships so they could endure the season their prospects are every bit as good as USD, UND or MSU.

The Vikings were better offensively and more efficient than say UNI outscoring them 379 - 333. Augie had 4,958 yds and UNI 4,512.

Augustana was far stingier on defense giving up only 3,853 yds but they were victims of the big play and short field giving up 299 pts. UNI gave up 277 points and 4,759.

It's UNIs low per game offensive output that gives Augustana and edge with a mythical score Augustana 30 UNI 27. That's not a prediction just and example of how Augustana stacks up considering they could achieve in the FCS what they are achieving in D2 today.

You're comparing without considering SoS?

Yes, I did compare without adjusting for strength of schedule. The premise is Augustana does as well against the FCS opponents as they do against their D2 opponents. A more probable outcome, if they were to play today, is:

PREDICTED WINNER: UNI Panthers
SPREAD: 34
OVER/UNDER: 49
MYTHICAL SCORE: Augustana 7 UNI 41*
*2 pt home field awarded

Augustana is pretty good at football and would fit right in to the middle or lower MVFC pecking order once they were up and running with full scholarships and a million or 2 more in the football budget. Right now they are spending as much as the lower end of the conference and I would expect some victories if they played in the MVFC.