Page 1 of 5
Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:22 am
by 89Hen
This is shaping up to be a shit show. Unless you limit the MVFC to two teams (no way can you do that), we very well may have a 5 loss team in the field.
I think this is who is most likely already in...
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (9-1)
CAA (4)
Maine (7-3) v Elon (6-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Delaware (7-3)
JMU (7-3) v Towson (7-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Stony Brook (7-3)
MEAC (1)
Assuming FAMU beats Bethune this week, NCAT (8-2) will get a bid as #2 in conference
MVFC (2)
NDSU (10-0)
SDSU (7-2)
NEC (1)
Too lazy to see who will win this one
OVC (2)
Jacksonville State (8-2)
SEMO (7-3)
Patriot (1)
Colgate (9-0)
Pioneer (1)
San Diego
Southern (2)
ETSU (8-2)
Wofford (7-3)
Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner in
So that leaves three spots. Like I said, no way the MVFC only gets two, so that means at least one of: UNI (5-5), WIU (5-5) or Indiana St (6-4) gets in. IF Idaho St (6-4) beats Weber, they're in. Furman with a win over Mercer most likely makes it. Not sure I'm really seeing any other bubble teams, did I miss anyone?
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:27 am
by Gil Dobie
UND would be 7-4 with a win over NAU, and won the head-to-head against Montana.
Indiana St needs to win to get to 6 DI wins.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:40 am
by kalm
89Hen wrote:This is shaping up to be a shit show. Unless you limit the MVFC to two teams (no way can you do that), we very well may have a 5 loss team in the field.
I think this is who is most likely already in...
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (9-1)
CAA (4)
Maine (7-3) v Elon (6-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Delaware (7-3)
JMU (7-3) v Towson (7-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Stony Brook (7-3)
MEAC (1)
Assuming FAMU beats Bethune this week, NCAT (8-2) will get a bid as #2 in conference
MVFC (2)
NDSU (10-0)
SDSU (7-2)
NEC (1)
Too lazy to see who will win this one
OVC (2)
Jacksonville State (8-2)
SEMO (7-3)
Patriot (1)
Colgate (9-0)
Pioneer (1)
San Diego
Southern (2)
ETSU (8-2)
Wofford (7-3)
Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner in
So that leaves three spots. Like I said, no way the MVFC only gets two, so that means at least one of: UNI (5-5), WIU (5-5) or Indiana St (6-4) gets in. IF Idaho St (6-4) beats Weber, they're in. Furman with a win over Mercer most likely makes it. Not sure I'm really seeing any other bubble teams, did I miss anyone?
I don't trust the committee, so....
ICW - AQ if Nicholls loses. Still slightly on the bubble with no bad losses, high SoS of 34 (for a SLC and compared to other bubble teams in SLC, OVC, Monmouth) and wins over McNeese, SHSU, UCA, and ACU. Not that the latter are quality wins but UCA, McNeese, and SHSU might be shiny objects for the committee. They also have a scheduled game against Iowa State, the opening week of the playoffs which they can back out of.
Monmouth - I know, but they got in last year...
ACU - because McNeese and Lamar and they beat Nicholls
UND - at 7-4 gets them ahead of Montana with h2h blowout. Plus a win over SHSU
At-large locks:
CAA- 5
BSC - 2
MVFC - 1
Win and in: ETSU, ISUo, SEMO, ISUb, Montana State
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:59 am
by 89Hen
kalm wrote:Monmouth - I know, but they got in last year...
I agree it doesn't hurt to put them on the bubble watch, but I'm fairly certain they don't have a win over a winning team.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:00 am
by 89Hen
Gil Dobie wrote:UND would be 7-4 with a win over NAU, and won the head-to-head against Montana.
They can be on the bubble too then.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:55 pm
by SuperHornet
Kennesaw gets a double-digit seed...or they WOULD if they seeded the entire field like the hoops tournament....
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:00 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
89Hen wrote:
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:08 pm
by JohnStOnge
89Hen wrote:
Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner
Unless Incarnate Word loses to North Alabama they will be in before McNeese or Lamar. And if Nicholls State loses Incarnate Word is the Southland automatic bid.
Incarnate Word can finish no worse than second in the Southland with 2 conference losses. The only way McNeese gets in is if the committee somehow decides to include three from the Southland and lets McNeese in by virtue of a quality win over Nicholls State. And I guess if Lamar wins they could let them in by virtue of a quality win over Incarnate Word.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:41 am
by 89Hen
Mvemjsunpx wrote:89Hen wrote:
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
Nope. Winner is in because there aren't enough 8-3 teams to keep them out.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:59 am
by Mvemjsunpx
89Hen wrote:Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
Nope. Winner is in because there aren't enough 8-3 teams to keep them out.
But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:00 am
by 89Hen
Mvemjsunpx wrote:89Hen wrote:
Nope. Winner is in because there aren't enough 8-3 teams to keep them out.
But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.
I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:05 am
by AZGrizFan
Mvemjsunpx wrote:89Hen wrote:
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
so every loss is now considered a bad loss?
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:06 am
by AZGrizFan
89Hen wrote:Mvemjsunpx wrote:
But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.
I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.
Furman?
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:18 am
by SACCAT
AZGrizFan wrote:Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
so every loss is now considered a bad loss?
Yes/No
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:23 am
by 89Hen
AZGrizFan wrote:89Hen wrote:
I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.
Furman?
Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:30 am
by grizzaholic
89Hen wrote:AZGrizFan wrote:
Furman?
Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They
used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:44 am
by 89Hen
grizzaholic wrote:89Hen wrote:
Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
Yes, what part of that didn't you catch the first time? I'm sure the NCAA would like to try to rekindle something there.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:47 am
by kalm
89Hen wrote:AZGrizFan wrote:
Furman?
Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:38 am
by Gil Dobie
kalm wrote:89Hen wrote:
Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.
Don't know if it was a typo, but NCAT coulf finish 9-2 and 2nd in the MEAC if FAMU wins.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:47 am
by 89Hen
Gil Dobie wrote:kalm wrote:
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.
Don't know if it was a typo, but NCAT coulf finish 9-2 and 2nd in the MEAC if FAMU wins.
Correct, and I have NCAT in my field projection above.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:31 pm
by kalm
Gil Dobie wrote:kalm wrote:
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.
Don't know if it was a typo, but NCAT coulf finish 9-2 and 2nd in the MEAC if FAMU wins.
Typo
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:25 pm
by grizzaholic
89Hen wrote:grizzaholic wrote:
Yes, what part of that didn't you catch the first time? I'm sure the NCAA would like to try to rekindle something there.
I didn't know past accomplishments should dictate current seeding. I'll have to remember to use that.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:26 pm
by 89Hen
grizzaholic wrote:89Hen wrote:
Yes, what part of that didn't you catch the first time? I'm sure the NCAA would like to try to rekindle something there.
I didn't know past accomplishments should dictate current seeding. I'll have to remember to use that.
Who is talking about seeds? If you don't think the committee chooses a team or two for the at-larges based on who the team is rather than just current season merit, you haven't been paying attention.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:17 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
89Hen wrote:Mvemjsunpx wrote:
But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.
I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.
The NCAA doesn't select the teams, the playoff selection committee does. I really doubt the UCA or Bucknell athletic directors care one bit about whether the NCAA makes money off a home game in Missoula. Bid size matters for selecting home teams in unseeded games, of course (per the rules), but there's no reason to think it applies to selecting who gets in the field.
If "the NCAA liking Montana in the field" was a real factor, the Griz would've gotten in last year.
Re: Playoff Field
Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:24 pm
by Gil Dobie
How is the committee going to treat the 3 MVFC teams that are 5-4 vs FCS
UNI, WIU and ISUB. Possibly 2 could finish 6-4 against FCS competition.