Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by CAA Flagship »

Gil Dobie wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote: But that (20 - 1) equates to 1637 scholarship players in FBS instead of FCS.

(20 x 85) - 63 = 1637
It isn't a 1 for 1 replacement of FCS scholarship players. I would assume being in FBS, means recruiting better players than you were at the FCS level. NDSU recruits better players, 1-63, than they did at the Division II level. Even getting better players, or maybe developing players better than the next door Minnesota Gophers. Grabbing players from under their shadow.
I'm saying the FCS player pool has been reduced by 1637 players. There can't be any denying that. The FBS schools are not taking DII players, they are taking FCS players. In other words, if you eliminated those net +19 programs today, there would be 1637 players that would likely find homes at FCS schools. And 1637 FCS players that would be bumped down to DII, DIII, NAIA, and JUCO. And that doesn't count the FBS walk-ons, some of which eventually earn scholarships.
So let's say that 50% of those 1637 players would be starters at the FCS level immediately. That's enough to field 37 full teams on offense and defense. Math: 1637 / 2 / 22 = 37
That's pretty significant.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 89Hen »

Flaggy, I'm pretty sure Gil has to still be fishing on this expedition. Note that he never answered my question as to whether the MVFC would be as strong without NDSU in it. This is a dumb discussion. If middle of the road teams had left I-AA over the years, that could be argued. But when you lose these teams...

Georgia Southern
2010 - #6
2011 - #2
2012 - #2

Appalachian State
2010 - #4
2011 - #8
2012 - #15

Old Dominion
2011 - #10
2012 - #7

Coastal Carolina
2013 - #7
2014 - #6
2015 - #17

It doesn't take a lot of soul searching to know that you can't lose the top teams and pretend it didn't affect the strength of the division.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote:Flaggy, I'm pretty sure Gil has to still be fishing on this expedition. Note that he never answered my question as to whether the MVFC would be as strong without NDSU in it. This is a dumb discussion. If middle of the road teams had left I-AA over the years, that could be argued. But when you lose these teams...

Georgia Southern
2010 - #6
2011 - #2
2012 - #2

Appalachian State
2010 - #4
2011 - #8
2012 - #15

Old Dominion
2011 - #10
2012 - #7

Coastal Carolina
2013 - #7
2014 - #6
2015 - #17

It doesn't take a lot of soul searching to know that you can't lose the top teams and pretend it didn't affect the strength of the division.
But I don't think it is only a matter of the "top" teams leaving. It's a matter of FBS vs. FCS to the recruit. Georgia State sucked at FCS, but they moved up and I'm sure that because they hand out 85 FBS scholarships, they are affecting the talent pool of FCS.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 89Hen »

CAA Flagship wrote:But I don't think it is only a matter of the "top" teams leaving. It's a matter of FBS vs. FCS to the recruit. Georgia State sucked at FCS, but they moved up and I'm sure that because they hand out 85 FBS scholarships, they are affecting the talent pool of FCS.
I agree in part, but the 22 extra schollies that GaSt is handing out IMO has less of an impact than the 65 that AppSt, GSU, etc... took with them.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote:Flaggy, I'm pretty sure Gil has to still be fishing on this expedition. Note that he never answered my question as to whether the MVFC would be as strong without NDSU in it. This is a dumb discussion. If middle of the road teams had left I-AA over the years, that could be argued. But when you lose these teams...

Georgia Southern
2010 - #6
2011 - #2
2012 - #2

Appalachian State
2010 - #4
2011 - #8
2012 - #15

Old Dominion
2011 - #10
2012 - #7

Coastal Carolina
2013 - #7
2014 - #6
2015 - #17

It doesn't take a lot of soul searching to know that you can't lose the top teams and pretend it didn't affect the strength of the division.
I don’t recall anyone arguing that losing those teams didn’t have at least a short term effect but why do think it’s permanent?

Besides, ODU and CCU were flashes in the pan.

SDSU has stepped it up at least to their level both on the field and with facilities. JSU, while struggling in the playoffs made a title game. KSU’s quick rise is reminiscent of Georgia Southern’s. UC Davis has the endowment, enrollment, and well healed donors to become a force for years to come now that they’re competitive and garnering attention. We saw the same thing with EWU (a new stadium renovation study with preliminary architectural plans was announced this week...again :mrgreen:)

It’s simply perspective but just like with most situations in life, everyone is replaceable.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:But I don't think it is only a matter of the "top" teams leaving. It's a matter of FBS vs. FCS to the recruit. Georgia State sucked at FCS, but they moved up and I'm sure that because they hand out 85 FBS scholarships, they are affecting the talent pool of FCS.
I agree in part, but the 22 extra schollies that GaSt is handing out IMO has less of an impact than the 65 that AppSt, GSU, etc... took with them.
Yeah but that's not the whole picture. It's the ripple effect. They kid that gets snubbed by Appy but signs on with Georgia St. then snubbed Elon. Elon has to go after the kid that was only offered by NC Central. NC Central has to steal a recruit away from Savannah St. Savannah St has to get a kid that would have played DII. And so on.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by CAA Flagship »

kalm wrote: Besides, ODU and CCU were flashes in the pan.
Yes.

Fuck you very much. :kisswink:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote:I don’t recall anyone arguing that losing those teams didn’t have at least a short term effect but why do think it’s permanent?

Besides, ODU and CCU were flashes in the pan.

SDSU has stepped it up at least to their level both on the field and with facilities. JSU, while struggling in the playoffs made a title game. KSU’s quick rise is reminiscent of Georgia Southern’s. UC Davis has the endowment, enrollment, and well healed donors to become a force for years to come now that they’re competitive and garnering attention. We saw the same thing with EWU (a new stadium renovation study with preliminary architectural plans was announced this week...again :mrgreen:)

It’s simply perspective but just like with most situations in life, everyone is replaceable.
You and Gil are the only two on your side of the argument, so 'anyone' is a small field. Define short term. Remember that my contention was:
89Hen wrote:The division is a LOT worse today than 10 years ago.
Since we don't know what I-AA will look like in 5 years, all we're comparing is today to the past.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:I don’t recall anyone arguing that losing those teams didn’t have at least a short term effect but why do think it’s permanent?

Besides, ODU and CCU were flashes in the pan.

SDSU has stepped it up at least to their level both on the field and with facilities. JSU, while struggling in the playoffs made a title game. KSU’s quick rise is reminiscent of Georgia Southern’s. UC Davis has the endowment, enrollment, and well healed donors to become a force for years to come now that they’re competitive and garnering attention. We saw the same thing with EWU (a new stadium renovation study with preliminary architectural plans was announced this week...again :mrgreen:)

It’s simply perspective but just like with most situations in life, everyone is replaceable.
You and Gil are the only two on your side of the argument, so 'anyone' is a small field. Define short term. Remember that my contention was:
89Hen wrote:The division is a LOT worse today than 10 years ago.
Since we don't know what I-AA will look like in 5 years, all we're comparing is today to the past.
Versus the CAA, 89, and 93 massive field (maybe clenz agreed with you too?)

Again, it's perspective and how you measure such things. To 93, the level of talent has gone down and FCS is "bad". I don't see it the same way and can support my argument as well with NFL performance, stats, success against FBS, and the eyeball test.

And of course we're all biased toward our own teams and conferences. When I watch EWU take the field against a P5 WAZZU that finished 9-4 two years ago and know for certain there's more talent at least at the skill positions for Eastern, hear Mike Leach admit that the best football player on the field that day was a sophomore QB making his first start, watch the success of David Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Carson Wentz, and see two WR's from Eastern catching TD's for the Rams and Niners it just doesn't seem to me that there's a huge drop off from 10 years ago. And this is from a team that hasn't made it back to the Chipper since 2010.

When I go watch Davis come to Cheney tomorrow there will be NFL talent on the field and bigger and faster athletes on both sides of the line of scrimmage than there was 10 years ago.

Is it that the same for all of FCS? I'm sure it's not, but at worst, I'd call it a push. Hell, a terrible ISU team beat Nevada last year, a likely 8-3 SLC team beat a P5 this season and likely 4-7 NAU rolled an FBS.

You don't do these things by playing bad football and talent is out there even with the struggling teams.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 89Hen »

Citing a couple teams being better than they were years ago, doesn't do a whole lot when we're talking about the division as a whole.

Montana is down. Montana State is down. CalPoly is down.

IOW, for every team you can name as up, I can name one that's down.

What we're talking about is the overall division. It is weaker today than it was 10 years ago because we lost some of the top teams.

Above you imply that the division is worse off "short term", or at least that nobody argued against that notion. So we agree that losing top teams hurts the strength of the division.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by Ibanez »

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:Flaggy, I'm pretty sure Gil has to still be fishing on this expedition. Note that he never answered my question as to whether the MVFC would be as strong without NDSU in it. This is a dumb discussion. If middle of the road teams had left I-AA over the years, that could be argued. But when you lose these teams...

Georgia Southern
2010 - #6
2011 - #2
2012 - #2

Appalachian State
2010 - #4
2011 - #8
2012 - #15

Old Dominion
2011 - #10
2012 - #7

Coastal Carolina
2013 - #7
2014 - #6
2015 - #17

It doesn't take a lot of soul searching to know that you can't lose the top teams and pretend it didn't affect the strength of the division.
I don’t recall anyone arguing that losing those teams didn’t have at least a short term effect but why do think it’s permanent?

Besides, ODU and CCU were flashes in the pan.

SDSU has stepped it up at least to their level both on the field and with facilities. JSU, while struggling in the playoffs made a title game. KSU’s quick rise is reminiscent of Georgia Southern’s. UC Davis has the endowment, enrollment, and well healed donors to become a force for years to come now that they’re competitive and garnering attention. We saw the same thing with EWU (a new stadium renovation study with preliminary architectural plans was announced this week...again :mrgreen:)

It’s simply perspective but just like with most situations in life, everyone is replaceable.
I think CCU should've remained in the FCS and if we had...we'd only continue to be a top performing team.
Turns out I might be a little gay. 89Hen 11/7/17
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote:Citing a couple teams being better than they were years ago, doesn't do a whole lot when we're talking about the division as a whole.

Montana is down. Montana State is down. CalPoly is down.

IOW, for every team you can name as up, I can name one that's down.

What we're talking about is the overall division. It is weaker today than it was 10 years ago because we lost some of the top teams.

Above you imply that the division is worse off "short term", or at least that nobody argued against that notion. So we agree that losing top teams hurts the strength of the division.
After you cited two teams who started up in 2003 and 2009 with limited success as examples of two of the top teams leaving the subdivision therefore it's down. :lol: If only Wofford and Weber had made it to the semi's and had multiple playoff appearances too! :lol:

This is really just a debate between traditional powers/dynasties vs. new powers/dynasties, one in which you're failing at badly. :nod:

You'd prefer the old and are shaking your fist from you lawn. I'm thinking this is one of the more exciting years we've had in the FCS for quite awhile.

Young upstart programs like KSU, the evil empire in NDSU, some parity in the CAA which could lead to an at-large team going on the road and winning it all like JMU did a number of years back, perhaps a changing of the guard in the Big Sky with Weber State, Davis, and ISU, 8 games of inter-conference play between the MVFC and Big Sky muddling the drink, and hell...even the CAA branching off and playing NDSU, The Citadel, and Furman OOC.

LIke I said, it's all perspective. You've provided very little to prove your point.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by kalm »

Ibanez wrote:
kalm wrote:
I don’t recall anyone arguing that losing those teams didn’t have at least a short term effect but why do think it’s permanent?

Besides, ODU and CCU were flashes in the pan.

SDSU has stepped it up at least to their level both on the field and with facilities. JSU, while struggling in the playoffs made a title game. KSU’s quick rise is reminiscent of Georgia Southern’s. UC Davis has the endowment, enrollment, and well healed donors to become a force for years to come now that they’re competitive and garnering attention. We saw the same thing with EWU (a new stadium renovation study with preliminary architectural plans was announced this week...again :mrgreen:)

It’s simply perspective but just like with most situations in life, everyone is replaceable.
I think CCU should've remained in the FCS and if we had...we'd only continue to be a top performing team.
Agreed.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 93henfan »

kalm wrote:

LIke I said, it's all perspective. You've provided very little to prove your point.
No, it's more than perspective.

Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:

2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)

Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)

So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by kalm »

93henfan wrote:
kalm wrote:

LIke I said, it's all perspective. You've provided very little to prove your point.
No, it's more than perspective.

Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:

2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)

Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)

So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.
Pfft....

2018 season is 7 games from being over.

Massey composite > Sagarin.

And to quote my computer loving friend 89hen...” garbage in, garbage out...”

:coffee:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 93henfan »

kalm wrote:
93henfan wrote:
No, it's more than perspective.

Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:

2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)

Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)

So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.
Pfft....

2018 season is 7 games from being over.

Massey composite > Sagarin.

And to quote my computer loving friend 89hen...” garbage in, garbage out...”

:coffee:
So you've got nothing to refute.



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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by kalm »

93henfan wrote:
kalm wrote:
Pfft....

2018 season is 7 games from being over.

Massey composite > Sagarin.

And to quote my computer loving friend 89hen...” garbage in, garbage out...”

:coffee:
So you've got nothing to refute.



What do I win?
I just refuted your entire damn post. Try and understand.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 93henfan »

kalm wrote:
93henfan wrote:
So you've got nothing to refute.



What do I win?
I just refuted your entire damn post. Try and understand.
I provided numbers. You said my eyes were lying so I gave you stats.

I win on both accounts.

Next.
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Re: RE: Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by UNI88 »

93henfan wrote:
kalm wrote:
Pfft....

2018 season is 7 games from being over.

Massey composite > Sagarin.

And to quote my computer loving friend 89hen...” garbage in, garbage out...”

:coffee:
So you've got nothing to refute.



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A romantic weekend in St. Louis with Flaggy.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by Gil Dobie »

CAA Flagship wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
It isn't a 1 for 1 replacement of FCS scholarship players. I would assume being in FBS, means recruiting better players than you were at the FCS level. NDSU recruits better players, 1-63, than they did at the Division II level. Even getting better players, or maybe developing players better than the next door Minnesota Gophers. Grabbing players from under their shadow.
I'm saying the FCS player pool has been reduced by 1637 players. There can't be any denying that. The FBS schools are not taking DII players, they are taking FCS players. In other words, if you eliminated those net +19 programs today, there would be 1637 players that would likely find homes at FCS schools. And 1637 FCS players that would be bumped down to DII, DIII, NAIA, and JUCO. And that doesn't count the FBS walk-ons, some of which eventually earn scholarships.
So let's say that 50% of those 1637 players would be starters at the FCS level immediately. That's enough to field 37 full teams on offense and defense. Math: 1637 / 2 / 22 = 37
That's pretty significant.
There's 1.1 million kids playing High School football each year in this country. You are saying a drop-in-the-bucket, 1637 scholarships are going to make a difference over 40 years. Many FCS teams get recruits over FBS teams, and there are another good chunk transferring to FCS from FBS. Many of the FBS transfers can't make the FCS teams.

I purposely left Sagarin out of the discussion, per 89Hen's love of computer rankings. 2003 Delaware had a 76.15 rating, #2 team WIU had a 66.2 rating, comparing to 2018, NDSU 79.86, #4 UNI is 66.36.

It varies year to year, but I really don't see a drop off in FCS since NDSU joined. Fans arguing that FCS is worse, appear to be fans of teams that have been down or gone, Montana, Delaware, GSU and App St. EWU has been a top team for 10 years, SDSU has improved, as has the MVFC overall, James Madison is still good, with new teams rising up and others having down seasons.

NDSU loses 20+ Seniors this year, including it's QB, top 2 RB's, and solid defenders, so maybe some balance will return next year.
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Re: RE: Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by CAA Flagship »

UNI88 wrote:
93henfan wrote:
So you've got nothing to refute.



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We'll have a shitty pizza party. :bananahump:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by 93henfan »

I always think "romance" when somebody mentions St. Louis. I guess it's the brown water and the housing projects.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by SuperHornet »

Meh. I still say that the Big Sky is the best conference in college football....
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by SeattleGriz »

CAA Flagship wrote:I blame Montana
It's Bob Stitt's fault.

On the bright side, we do have Idaho back. Now they just need to get a lot better.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Post by Grizalltheway »

SeattleGriz wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:I blame Montana
It's Royce Engstrom's fault.

On the bright side, we do have Idaho back. Now they just need to get a lot better.
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