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This ranking suggests they punished EWU for their starting QB being done for the season, but didn't do the same for Elon.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:This ranking suggests they punished EWU for their starting QB being done for the season, but didn't do the same for Elon.

Think they were looking at keeping only 2 teams from the Big Sky for seeds?

I grabbed a list of the top 10 including remaining schedules from Kemo on AGS and added to it a little:

Remaining Schedules, strength of schedule, and quality wins for the committee's Top 10 plus a few teams on the outside looking in:

1) NDSU
--- Youngstown St; @ Missouri St; Southern Illinois

SoS: 3
Quality wins *: Illinois State, WIU, UNI, SDSU, UD

2) James Madison
--- @ New Hampshire; Rhode Island; @Towson

SoS: 22
QW: SBU

3) UC Davis
--- Northern Arizona; @ Eastern Washington; Sacramento St

Sos: 9
QW: SJSU, Idaho State, Montana, San Diego

4) Weber St
--- Sacramento State; @ Southern Utah; @ Idaho St

SoS: 8
QW: EWU, Montana State, UND

5) Elon
--- Rhode Island; Towson; @ Maine

SoS: 7
QW: JMU

6) Kennesaw St.
--- Campbell; @ Monmouth; Jacksonville St (neutral site)

SoS: 88
Samford

7) SDSU
--- Missouri St; @ SIU; USD

Sos: 5
QW: Montana State, Indiana State, Illinois State

8) Wofford
--- @ Samford; @ Western Carolina; Presbyterian

SoS: 54
QW: UTC, ETSU, Mercer

9) Eastern Washington
--- @ Northern Colorado; UC Davis; @ Portland St

SoS: 14
QW: Montana State

10) Delaware
--- @ Albany; @ Stony Brook; Villanova

Sos: 16
QW: Towson, Elon

Towson
--- Maine, @ Elon, JMU

SoS: 23
QW: Stony Brook

Colgate
--- @Fordham, @ Lehigh, @ Army

SoS: 81
QW: 0

JSU
--- UTM, @ TSU, Kennesaw (neutral field)

SoS: 76
QW: Murray State, EKU, Austin Peay

McNeese
--- @ SELA, NSU, Lamar

SoS: 49
QW: Nicholls, ACU, UCA

SE Missouri State:
--- TSU, @ Murray State, EIU

SoS: 56
QW JSU, Austin Peay


You could exchange EWU for Towson who has the better win however the SoS makes it a push. It's a close call.

Same thing goes for Colgate and KSU but the Owls win against Samford trumps Colgate's slightly higher SoS.

Delaware and SDSU seem low given their strength of schedule and quality wins vs Elon's and JMU's resumes. In the case of JMU, Margin of victory might place them higher than UD but that wouldn't apply in comparing them to SDSU.

KSU is a significant outlier with their Strength of schedule and only quality win coming against a 4-4 Samford. This supports YT's (AGS poster) theory of institutional memory.

It's not a terrible ranking, but the further you drill down, the less it holds up. There was talk in the AGS thread of strength of schedule playing a roll but that didn't matter for EWU last year who wasn't even one of the last four out (homerism acknowledged). The committee has also been fairly consistent in the past with valuing recent outcomes, H2H, and FBS wins except when UNH got in over Albany in 2016 when Albany beat Buffalo early in the season and beat UNH on the road the 2nd to last game of the season.

kalm wrote:I grabbed a list of the top 10 including remaining schedules from Kemo on AGS and added to it a little:

Remaining Schedules, strength of schedule, and quality wins for the committee's Top 10 plus a few teams on the outside looking in:

1) NDSU
--- Youngstown St; @ Missouri St; Southern Illinois

SoS: 3
Quality wins *: Illinois State, WIU, UNI, SDSU, UD

2) James Madison
--- @ New Hampshire; Rhode Island; @Towson

SoS: 22
QW: SBU

3) UC Davis
--- Northern Arizona; @ Eastern Washington; Sacramento St

Sos: 9
QW: SJSU, Idaho State, Montana, San Diego

4) Weber St
--- Sacramento State; @ Southern Utah; @ Idaho St

SoS: 8
QW: EWU, Montana State, UND

5) Elon
--- Rhode Island; Towson; @ Maine

SoS: 7
QW: JMU

6) Kennesaw St.
--- Campbell; @ Monmouth; Jacksonville St (neutral site)

SoS: 88
Samford

7) SDSU
--- Missouri St; @ SIU; USD

Sos: 5
QW: Montana State, Indiana State, Illinois State

8) Wofford
--- @ Samford; @ Western Carolina; Presbyterian

SoS: 54
QW: UTC, ETSU, Mercer

9) Eastern Washington
--- @ Northern Colorado; UC Davis; @ Portland St

SoS: 14
QW: Montana State

10) Delaware
--- @ Albany; @ Stony Brook; Villanova

Sos: 16
QW: Towson, Elon

Towson
--- Maine, @ Elon, JMU

SoS: 23
QW: Stony Brook

Colgate
--- @Fordham, @ Lehigh, @ Army

SoS: 81
QW: 0

JSU
--- UTM, @ TSU, Kennesaw (neutral field)

SoS: 76
QW: Murray State, EKU, Austin Peay

McNeese
--- @ SELA, NSU, Lamar

SoS: 49
QW: Nicholls, ACU, UCA

SE Missouri State:
--- TSU, @ Murray State, EIU

SoS: 56
QW JSU, Austin Peay


You could exchange EWU for Towson who has the better win however the SoS makes it a push. It's a close call.

Same thing goes for Colgate and KSU but the Owls win against Samford trumps Colgate's slightly higher SoS.

Delaware and SDSU seem low given their strength of schedule and quality wins vs Elon's and JMU's resumes. In the case of JMU, Margin of victory might place them higher than UD but that wouldn't apply in comparing them to SDSU.

KSU is a significant outlier with their Strength of schedule and only quality win coming against a 4-4 Samford. This supports YT's (AGS poster) theory of institutional memory.

It's not a terrible ranking, but the further you drill down, the less it holds up. There was talk in the AGS thread of strength of schedule playing a roll but that didn't matter for EWU last year who wasn't even one of the last four out (homerism acknowledged). The committee has also been fairly consistent in the past with valuing recent outcomes, H2H, and FBS wins except when UNH got in over Albany in 2016 when Albany beat Buffalo early in the season and beat UNH on the road the 2nd to last game of the season.

Should not have to worry about UNH favoritism this year.

Gil Dobie wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:This ranking suggests they punished EWU for their starting QB being done for the season, but didn't do the same for Elon.

Think they were looking at keeping only 2 teams from the Big Sky for seeds?

Well, there isn't supposed to be a quota.

And Elon is too high, anyway. They shouldn't be above Delaware.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

Gil Dobie wrote:
Think they were looking at keeping only 2 teams from the Big Sky for seeds?

Well, there isn't supposed to be a quota.

And Elon is too high, anyway. They shouldn't be above Delaware.

That's totally correct and strongly suggests laziness on the committee's part.

Hey! They beat JMU! We KNOW they're good, right?

kalm wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Well, there isn't supposed to be a quota.

And Elon is too high, anyway. They shouldn't be above Delaware.

That's totally correct and strongly suggests laziness on the committee's part.

Hey! They beat JMU! We KNOW they're good, right?

Exactly—a lot has changed with Elon since that JMU win.

kalm wrote:6) Kennesaw St.

SoS: 88

WAFJ

Mvemjsunpx wrote:And Elon is too high, anyway. They shouldn't be above Delaware.

Stony should be in over Elon.

I'm not a believer in the Hens yet, and if they really are tenth best, then as I suspect, other than NDSU, FCS is as weak as it's ever been.

93henfan wrote:I'm not a believer in the Hens yet, and if they really are tenth best, then as I suspect, other than NDSU, FCS is as weak as it's ever been.

No chance NDSU doesn't hoist the trophy again this year.

You guys are bringing up good points here. Kennesaw State is a joke, and Elon is barely playoff material.

I'm not really a fan of the four-seed system (I'd rather return to the regional system), but my top four would have to be NDSU, Eastern Washington, BBQ, and JMU.

I'd pick KSU to be favored to beat 70% of that field.


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89Hen wrote:

93henfan wrote:I'm not a believer in the Hens yet, and if they really are tenth best, then as I suspect, other than NDSU, FCS is as weak as it's ever been.

No chance NDSU doesn't hoist the trophy again this year.

Some tough teams out there, SDSU and JMU to name a couple that have beaten the Bison recently.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

kalm wrote:


That's totally correct and strongly suggests laziness on the committee's part.

Hey! They beat JMU! We KNOW they're good, right?

Exactly—a lot has changed with Elon since that JMU win.

And now Malcolm Summers is done, too.

http://www.thetimesnews.com/sports/2018 ... mers-again


It's almost like beating JMU was a Faustian bargain or something.

Gil Dobie wrote:

89Hen wrote: No chance NDSU doesn't hoist the trophy again this year.

Some tough teams out there, SDSU and JMU to name a couple that have beaten the Bison recently.

Nigga please. Just move up already.

Gil Dobie wrote:

89Hen wrote: No chance NDSU doesn't hoist the trophy again this year.

Some tough teams out there, SDSU and JMU to name a couple that have beaten the Bison recently.

You sound like Joe Gibbs. He was amazed the Redskins ever won a game. Like 93 said, nice try at the cliches.

kalm wrote:I grabbed a list of the top 10 including remaining schedules from Kemo on AGS and added to it a little:

Remaining Schedules, strength of schedule, and quality wins for the committee's Top 10 plus a few teams on the outside looking in:

1) NDSU
--- Youngstown St; @ Missouri St; Southern Illinois

SoS: 3
Quality wins *: Illinois State, WIU, UNI, SDSU, UD

2) James Madison
--- @ New Hampshire; Rhode Island; @Towson

SoS: 22
QW: SBU

3) UC Davis
--- Northern Arizona; @ Eastern Washington; Sacramento St

Sos: 9
QW: SJSU, Idaho State, Montana, San Diego

4) Weber St
--- Sacramento State; @ Southern Utah; @ Idaho St

SoS: 8
QW: EWU, Montana State, UND

5) Elon
--- Rhode Island; Towson; @ Maine

SoS: 7
QW: JMU

6) Kennesaw St.
--- Campbell; @ Monmouth; Jacksonville St (neutral site)

SoS: 88
Samford

7) SDSU
--- Missouri St; @ SIU; USD

Sos: 5
QW: Montana State, Indiana State, Illinois State

8) Wofford
--- @ Samford; @ Western Carolina; Presbyterian

SoS: 54
QW: UTC, ETSU, Mercer

9) Eastern Washington
--- @ Northern Colorado; UC Davis; @ Portland St

SoS: 14
QW: Montana State

10) Delaware
--- @ Albany; @ Stony Brook; Villanova

Sos: 16
QW: Towson, Elon

Towson
--- Maine, @ Elon, JMU

SoS: 23
QW: Stony Brook

Colgate
--- @Fordham, @ Lehigh, @ Army

SoS: 81
QW: 0

JSU
--- UTM, @ TSU, Kennesaw (neutral field)

SoS: 76
QW: Murray State, EKU, Austin Peay

McNeese
--- @ SELA, NSU, Lamar

SoS: 49
QW: Nicholls, ACU, UCA

SE Missouri State:
--- TSU, @ Murray State, EIU

SoS: 56
QW JSU, Austin Peay


You could exchange EWU for Towson who has the better win however the SoS makes it a push. It's a close call.

Same thing goes for Colgate and KSU but the Owls win against Samford trumps Colgate's slightly higher SoS.

Delaware and SDSU seem low given their strength of schedule and quality wins vs Elon's and JMU's resumes. In the case of JMU, Margin of victory might place them higher than UD but that wouldn't apply in comparing them to SDSU.

KSU is a significant outlier with their Strength of schedule and only quality win coming against a 4-4 Samford. This supports YT's (AGS poster) theory of institutional memory.

It's not a terrible ranking, but the further you drill down, the less it holds up. There was talk in the AGS thread of strength of schedule playing a roll but that didn't matter for EWU last year who wasn't even one of the last four out (homerism acknowledged). The committee has also been fairly consistent in the past with valuing recent outcomes, H2H, and FBS wins except when UNH got in over Albany in 2016 when Albany beat Buffalo early in the season and beat UNH on the road the 2nd to last game of the season.

Jacksonville St will have a good game vs Tenn St.

89Hen wrote:

Gil Dobie wrote:
Some tough teams out there, SDSU and JMU to name a couple that have beaten the Bison recently.

You sound like Joe Gibbs. He was amazed the Redskins ever won a game. Like 93 said, nice try at the cliches.

A bad team gave NDSU a good game yesterday..........anygivensaturday.

Gil Dobie wrote:

89Hen wrote: You sound like Joe Gibbs. He was amazed the Redskins ever won a game. Like 93 said, nice try at the cliches.

A bad team gave NDSU a good game yesterday..........anygivensaturday.

Y'okay!

Top 10 might look something like this now......

1. NDSU
2. Eastern Washinton
3. Weber State
4. Kennesaw State
5. UC Davis
6. South Dakota State
7. Colgate
8. JMU
9. Maine
10. Stony Brook

mainejeff wrote:Top 10 might look something like this now......

1. NDSU
2. Eastern Washinton
3. Weber State
4. Kennesaw State
5. UC Davis
6. South Dakota State
7. Colgate
8. JMU
9. Maine
10. Stony Brook

At least there's one good team on that list. My God does FCS suck this year.

mainejeff wrote:Top 10 might look something like this now......

1. NDSU
2. Eastern Washinton
3. Weber State
4. Kennesaw State
5. UC Davis
6. South Dakota State
7. Colgate
8. JMU
9. Maine
10. Stony Brook

SDSU will be higher, 2 or 3. Just shows the West is the best, and FCS is only down in ECB land.

Colgate and Kennesaw are pretenders.