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Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:37 am
by VandalBasher
http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_133.html
REALLY? These are bold predictions? I have said all along my Vandals will go 7-4 and miss the playoffs due to playing two FBS and a DII.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:02 am
by Wildcat Ryan
http://www.atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_143.html
They have Weber going 8-3 this year but have them favored to win every game except the game at Utah and winning every game but Utah

.
Am I seeing it wrong?
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:01 pm
by AZGrizFan
You can't fix stupid.
Me thinks there might be something wrong with their algorithm.

Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:30 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
It's because they're adding up the winning probabilities; they add up to 8.061 wins.
So—in other words—they're not picking specific wins & losses, but are instead putting together an aggregate probability of the team's most likely final record.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:48 pm
by VandalBasher
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:45 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
I already commented about this on AGS, but I mostly agree with all but the last prediction. Additionally, the comment about UM's non-conference schedule being stronger is stupid since the Griz played UDub last year while they don't play any FBSers this year.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:06 am
by kalm
Mvemjsunpx wrote:
I already commented about this on AGS, but I mostly agree with all but the last prediction. Additionally, the comment about UM's non-conference schedule being stronger is stupid since the Griz played UDub last year while they don't play any FBSers this year.
Disagree. None of the games last year did much to build the resume. Two of the games this year will.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:02 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
kalm wrote:Mvemjsunpx wrote:
I already commented about this on AGS, but I mostly agree with all but the last prediction. Additionally, the comment about UM's non-conference schedule being stronger is stupid since the Griz played UDub last year while they don't play any FBSers this year.
Disagree. None of the games last year did much to build the resume. Two of the games this year will.
If they're wins, which they probably won't be (especially WIU). As losses, they would definitely hurt more than Washington did.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:53 pm
by JohnStOnge
I'm going to guess that the Big Sky is not going to have the leading rusher at the end of the regular season. Can you Big Sky guys tell me how many times the leading rush in I-AA/FCS has been from the Big Sky? I honestly don't know but my impression is that it hasn't been often.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:19 pm
by mtjack
JohnStOnge wrote:
I'm going to guess that the Big Sky is not going to have the leading rusher at the end of the regular season. Can you Big Sky guys tell me how many times the leading rush in I-AA/FCS has been from the Big Sky? I honestly don't know but my impression is that it hasn't been often.
Archie Amerson for NAU in 1996. He won the Walter Payton Award that year.
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:20 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
JohnStOnge wrote:
I'm going to guess that the Big Sky is not going to have the leading rusher at the end of the regular season. Can you Big Sky guys tell me how many times the leading rush in I-AA/FCS has been from the Big Sky? I honestly don't know but my impression is that it hasn't been often.
I doubt the Big Sky will get the leading rusher, either, but Cal Poly does love to give their fullback a lot of carries (they've had a top-10 rusher each of the past 2 years).
The last time the Big Sky had the leading rusher was 2001 with Jesse Chatman (EWU). Charles Roberts (SAC) also led the nation in both 1998 & 1999. Roberts was also the last I-AA/FCS player to average over 200 rushing ypg in a season (1998).
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:23 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
mtjack wrote:JohnStOnge wrote:
I'm going to guess that the Big Sky is not going to have the leading rusher at the end of the regular season. Can you Big Sky guys tell me how many times the leading rush in I-AA/FCS has been from the Big Sky? I honestly don't know but my impression is that it hasn't been often.
Archie Amerson for NAU in 1996. He won the Walter Payton Award that year.
Amerson was actually 2nd. that year, though he was 1st. among players from scholarship leagues (Reggie Greene of Siena led overall).
Re: Bold predictions for the BSC
Posted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:30 pm
by JohnStOnge
I'm actually surprised that the Big Sky has had the nation's leading rusher as often as you guys reported.