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Should be a great game then.

Mike McFeely
1 hr ·
Twitter
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Sam Houston State coach K.C. Keeler says he believes Bearkats match up better physically with @NDSUfootball than they have in the past.

Keeler Link

“For us to do that, we have to go through the best program in the country and that’s North Dakota State. We talk about them all the time. We talk about Alabama and North Dakota State all the time in terms of how they do things and the reason why they win. There’s a method to their madness. It’s not by chance, it’s by design. We’re excited. With the way this defense can play, I think it’s going to be a great contest at their place.”

Who is this Keeler clown?

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

Bo Pelini wannabe.

Will not matter the Bison are going to smoke them anyway unless the Wildcats come up with a great game plan for a upset!!!!

dal4018 wrote:Will not matter the Bison are going to smoke them anyway unless the Wildcats come up with a great game plan for a upset!!!!

Bearkats.

Gil Dobie wrote:Keeler Link

“For us to do that, we have to go through the best program in the country and that’s North Dakota State. We talk about them all the time. We talk about Alabama and North Dakota State all the time in terms of how they do things and the reason why they win. There’s a method to their madness. It’s not by chance, it’s by design. We’re excited. With the way this defense can play, I think it’s going to be a great contest at their place.”

I hope by "this defense" he means North Dakota State's and not Sam Houston State's. As noted in another thread, Sam Houston State is rated 107th in total defense (439 ypg) and 90th in scoring defense (29.4 ppg). Also 94th in rushing defense (180 ypg, 4.48 ypc).

If North Dakota State's #1 ranked total and #2 ranked scoring defense slows Sam Houston State's offense down I don't think a great contest is likely. North Dakota State is also ranked #1 in passing yards allowed and #2 in pass efficiency defense. North Dakota State hasn't played a passing offense ranked as high in the NCAA stats as Sam Houston State as Sam Houston State's passing offense is #1. But the Bison held the 6th ranked passing offense (South Dakota) to 14 points and held the 8th ranked passing offense (Eastern Washington) to 13 points.

It's always possible that Sam Houston State's defense could unexpectedly match up well with North Dakota State's offense and win a defensive struggle. But I think it's more likely that if Sam Houston State is going to win they're going to have to continue to score a lot of points in spite of playing against a defense that's a lot better than any they've faced so far this season. Flipping Northwestern State got 36 points, 518 total yards, and 297 rushing yards at 7.6 yards per carry against Sam Houston State.

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

He used to coach defense.

Here's another one for you:

Prairie View got 31 points, 499 total yards, and 334 rushing yards at 7.4 yards per carry against Sam Houston State. And it wasn't option football. I watched the game. It was power football. Prairie View overpowering Sam Houston State's defense.

It could happen. Football is unpredictable. But it'd be a surprise if Sam Houston State can slow down North Dakota State's offense.

Sam Houston State is 1st in FCS scoring offense playing in the Southland. North Dakota State is 2nd in FCS scoring offense playing in the Missouri Valley. Meanwhile North Dakota State is 2nd in scoring defense while Sam Houston State is the aforementioned 90th.

kalm wrote:

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

He used to coach defense.

When? He's been an offensive coach everywhere he's been - he's never claimed to be a defensive playcaller - in his head coaching stints he's always publicly deferred to the defensive coordinator.

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

He demands a firm hand shake and worships Corey Hart.

GannonFan wrote:

kalm wrote:
He used to coach defense.

When? He's been an offensive coach everywhere he's been - he's never claimed to be a defensive playcaller - in his head coaching stints he's always publicly deferred to the defensive coordinator.

GF gets jokes!

andy7171 wrote:

GannonFan wrote:
When? He's been an offensive coach everywhere he's been - he's never claimed to be a defensive playcaller - in his head coaching stints he's always publicly deferred to the defensive coordinator.

GF gets jokes!

What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness.

kalm wrote:

andy7171 wrote: GF gets jokes!

What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness.

If only the chain crew recognized they played great defense that year.

GannonFan wrote:

kalm wrote:
What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness.

If only the chain crew recognized they played great defense that year.

Gil Dobie wrote:Should be a great game then.

Mike McFeely
1 hr ·
Twitter
·
Sam Houston State coach K.C. Keeler says he believes Bearkats match up better physically with @NDSUfootball than they have in the past.

That is true, certainly at least since 2011. Soft Houston as soft this year from what I have seen. If they can stay within a couple of scores of NDSU maybe they can shed the Soft Houston label.

Last 3 Soft Houston road playoff games:
2014 semis L @ NDSU 35-3 (did win road playoff games @ JSU & @ VU)
2015 semis L @ JSU 62-10
2016 qtr L @ JMU 65-7

Line is NDSU -21, O/U 64.5.

1 common opponent, both beat S Dakota at home.
NDSU 49, SD 14 (up 49-7 after 3 quarters).
SHSU 54, SD 42 (up 41-14 at the half).

HOT TAKE: North Dakota State is a heavy favorite in this game. *pause to allow readers to calm down*

The real question is whether Sam Houston can even put up a fight, since they haven't in their last 3 road playoff games (outscored by an average of 54-7 ). If the Bearkats do actually show up, then they may have a shot. Their pass-protection stats are quite good, and Jeremiah Briscoe is the 10th. ranked QB on NFL Draft Scout. Briscoe may have to play at an NFL level to win this, though, because the opposing D is really good and I just don't see Sam Houston's defense stopping the Bison running game.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Sam Houston St.
      
      Running Backs - North Dakota St.
      
      Receivers/TEs - Sam Houston St.
      
      Offensive Line - North Dakota St.
      
      
      Defensive Line - North Dakota St.
      
      Linebackers --- North Dakota St.
      
      Secondary ---- North Dakota St.
      
      
      Kicking ------ Sam Houston St.
      
      Punting ------ North Dakota St.
      
      Return Teams - Sam Houston St.
      
      Kickoffs ------ Sam Houston St.
      
      
      
      
      
      • Sam Houston St. 20-42 North Dakota St.

Anybody have one of these?

Big question is is Davion Davis playing? He got hurt 1st half vs Kennesaw & didn't return..

National Rankings
#1 receiving TDs (17)
#2 Total TDs (21)
#9 receiving yards (1147)

Mvemjsunpx wrote: The real question is whether Sam Houston can even put up a fight, since they haven't in their last 3 road playoff games (outscored by an average of 54-7 ). If the Bearkats do actually show up, then they may have a shot. Their pass-protection stats are quite good,

I think the home/road thing with Sam Houston State is a little overblown. I think 2016 James Madison, 2015 Jacksonville State, and 2014 North Dakota State would've blown Sam Houston State out regardless of where they played.

On the pass protection stats thing: Central Arkansas did get 3 sacks against Sam Houston State and during the parts of the game I watched they did get pressure. I suspect North Dakota State is better up front on defense than Central Arkansas was.

Factoid: Sam Houston State gave up 8 sacks in games against playoff teams. 3 against Central Arkansas, 1 (only) against Nicholls State, 2 against South Dakota, 2 against Kennesaw State.

I also think Sam Houston State is a "quick release" passing offense. If there are problems with "quick release" due to coverage there could be issues with sacks. And they're going to be playing against the #1 defense in terms of passing yards allowed and the #5 defense in terms of passing efficiency.

GannonFan wrote:

kalm wrote:
What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness.

If only the chain crew recognized they played great defense that year.

MEAC refs sucks worse than their teams do..

It's Game Day Pukes!

andy7171 wrote:

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

He demands a firm hand shake and worships Corey Hart.