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This is pretty simple: the dominant early-season South Dakota wins this game, the middling late-season South Dakota doesn't. Sam Houston is also 11-0 at home in the playoffs this millennium, so it's difficult to see an upset here.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- South Dakota
      
      Running Backs - (push)
      
      Receivers/TEs - Sam Houston St.
      
      Offensive Line - (push)
      
      
      Defensive Line - South Dakota
      
      Linebackers --- South Dakota
      
      Secondary ---- South Dakota
      
      
      Kicking ------ (push)
      
      Punting ------ South Dakota
      
      Return Teams - Sam Houston St.
      
      Kickoffs ------ Sam Houston St.
      
      
      
      
      
      • South Dakota 31-45 Sam Houston St.

I guess my gut favors Sam Houston State but I think only one of those home playoff wins by Sam Houston State was against Missouri Valley or prior to that Gateway teams. That was Western Kentucky of the Gateway in 2004. I don't know what any of the lines are but usually the lines are similar to power ratings margins. South Dakota is rated higher in power ratings than Sam Houston State is. They're a 7.58 point favorite in this game in spite of Sam Houston State being at home by Sagarin and a 6.75 point favorite by Massey. If you go by the rankings composite at https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm South Dakota is at 11 while Sam Houston State is at 14.

It's an interesting thing because we're talking about the road team being from a much tougher conference and having played a much tougher schedule. If you go by the Sagarin schedule strength ratings South Dakota's slate is 130th among Division I schools while Sam Houston State's is 216th.

One thing's for sure: South Dakota isn't going to start off in awe of Sam Houston State. They've played several teams this year that are better than Sam Houston State and they know it. They know that in the Missouri Valley Sam Houston State would be a middle of the pack team. And since I said that I'll say that by the Sagarin Ratings Sam Houston State is rated lower than 7 of the 10 Missouri Valley Conference teams. Same with Massey. Seven Missouri Valley Conference teams are rated higher than Sam Houston State.

Sam Houston State was a lot more impressive than South Dakota was against their one common opponent; Nicholls State. But the Bearkats also struggled with 4-7 Stephen F. Austin, 4-7 Northwestern State, and 2-9 Abilene Christian.

Should be interesting. I would not be surprised to see either team blow the other one out. Would not be surprised to see either team win a close one. Nothing would surprise me with respect to this game.

Gotta say Sam Houston is fun to watch. So far have gotten a shit ton of big yardage plays. 14-7 SHSU

Sam Houston looking to finish off an epic collapse. It's 44-42 after it was 41-14 at the half.

Now 51-42 and some breathing room for the Bearkats.

Now 54-42 with 2:53 left.

Can you say obvious SHOOTOUT!!!!!

SoDak drops a screen on 4th. & 1, so that should be it.

54-42 the final.

I had to stop watching to do some things but I think a huge moment in the game was fairly early on when Sam Houston State was leading by 7...21-14 I think...and South Dakota got an interception at around the Sam Houston 30. They threw three incomplete passes on downs 1 through 3 and on two of those three attempts they had guys open for touchdowns and didn't connect. Went for it on fourth down and didn't make it.

The way that game went that was a huge missed opportunity. I can't believe South Dakota was THAT bad on defense. I thought they looked pretty weak last week but THAT was weak.

Now Sam Houston State gets Kennesaw State at home. That's kind of an interesting matchup.

QBs threw for a combined 1,025 9 tds 3 WRs broke the 100yd barrier for receiving yds!!! My kind of game!!!!!

Brandt Van Roekel great size 6'5 200 wonder if he's a 4.4 man in the(40) 11 grabs 231 yds led everyone in stats.