Playoff Committee Top 10 11/15

[BDKJMU]

[BDKJMU]

IMHOP its should be:
1. NDSU
2. EWU
3. JMU
4. Citadel
5. JSU
6. SHSU

Don't think there could be any argument against NDSU & EWU #1 & #2. Toughest SOS (110 & 138).

-JMU is 9-0 vs I-AA, 3-0 vs playoffs teams (UR, VU, and the winner of UNH/Maine) Beat all 4 of those teams on the road, 2 of whom were Top 10 at the time. 1-0 vs Top 8 seed. Sagarin SOS 180.

-Citadel is 9-0 vs I-AA and has beaten 3 likely playoff teams. Did beat a Div II. Sagarin SOS 174, and will go stronger when they play UNC this weekend.

-JSU is 8-0 vs I-AA and has beaten 0 likely playoff teams. They did beat CCSU at home 27-26, and CCSU would be a playoff team if they were eligible. The next most impressive is losing by only 3 TDs @ LSU. Beat a Div II, a decent Liberty. OVC not very strong this year. Sagarin SOS is 176

-SHSU is 9-0 vs I-AA and has beaten 0 likely playoff teams. Of course IF they beat UCA then they will have beaten a playoff team. Didn't play a I-A, beat a Div II, and have played a weak Southland slate. They haven't beaten ANYONE worth a damn. Sagarin SOS is 226. The only likely playoff team with a weaker SOS? San Diego from the non scholly Pioneer.

7-10 looks about right. if UCA loses to SHSU they obviously drop out of the top 8. If SHSU loses I would think they would drop out also, or at least fall back to 8th..

[Gil Dobie]

As they stand, the brackets would look like this, if all seeds won the 2nd round game.

1. NDSU
8. Richmond

5. SHSU
4. JMU

3. JSU
6. The Citadel

7. UCA
2. EWU

[kalm]

As they stand, the brackets would look like this, if all seeds won the 2nd round game.

1. NDSU
8. Richmond

5. SHSU
4. JMU

3. JSU
6. The Citadel

7. UCA
2. EWU

But unless it's a close game between UCA and SHSU, I can see UND or SDSU replacing the loser.

With at least two if not 3 seeds out West (even 4 seeds in the event of mayhem on Saturday) the NCAA's airfare is going to increase.

[89Hen]

Sorry to all our El Cid fans, but they are the worst of the top 10. I would favor all other 9 over them.

[BDKJMU]

There isn't much difference between #1 #2 seed- both at home throughout. If seeds win out:
-Not too much difference between #3 & #4- both at home through quarterfinals.
-Not too much difference between #6-#8- on road in quarters

-Big difference between #4 & #5- #5 @ #4 in quarterfinals
-HUGE difference between #8 & #9 obviously..

[BDKJMU]

Here's what I wrote on the JMU board regarding the worry that SHSU with a win over UCA would jump JMU @ #4, with the Top 3 all winning:

Here's something I noticed. Looking at TN Martin, their only non I-A loss is @ TN State, whom JSU didn't play, back on 10/1. Since then TN Martin has won 5 of 6, their only loss @ Ga State. Have won their last 3 straight in conference, beating 2 of those 3 worse than JSU did. Looking at JSU's & TN Martin's 6 common conference opponents, TN Martin beat 3 of them worse than JSU did. If you combine the point differential of all 6, its only JSU+3. Unfortunately the game is @ JSU, so JSU likely wins. While I expect JSU (-16.5) to win, I wouldn't be surprised if TN Martin won. I would be surprised if JSU blew TN Martin out..

Another poster:

Looked a little closer at UT Martin's box scores against their FBS opponents. They outgained both Hawaii and Georgia St., and were within 77 yds of Cincinnati (400-323). They were done in each game by turnovers- 4 against UC, 3 against Hawaii and 4 against GA St. They were only down 14-7 entering the 4th against UC and had a 1 point lead on Hawaii until giving up a long TD pass with 6 minutes. They should be able to scare Jax St if they can avoid the turnovers.

[BDKJMU]

Looking at S Dakota, they will likely have played 7 playoff teams, 2 Big Sky OOC, and 5 MVFC (assuming UNI or ILSU will get in as a 5th MVFC @ 6-5).
1. Weber State W 52-49
2. @ North Dakota L 47-44
3. @ Youngstown St. L 30-20
4. UNI W 28-25
-- Illinois State W 27-24
5. Western Illinois L 35-34
6. @ South Dakota St. L 28-21
7. NDSU

They have beaten 3 of 6 likely playoff teams & 4 of 7 possible. Their worst loss among the 3 losses was by a TD in their instate rivary game @ SDSU.

They lost by 27 @ New Mexico, but New Mexico is 7-3/5-1 in the MTN West. S Dakota's only bad loss was @ S Ill by 7, the last place MVFC team. S Dakota's schedule SOS (120) is 3rd only to NDSU & UNI. They are clearly the best 4-6 team in the country.

Last year S Dakota had a similar team- fininished 5-6. They beat NDSU in the Fargodome. Course that could be a negative since NDSU will be looking for revenge.

While I expect NDSU to win, this isn't a slam dunk. I wouldn't be surprised if SD pulled the upset. The only thing that would surprise me was if NDSU blew them out by far more than the spread..

I know the MVFC folks have more insight on this as I'm just looking at things on paper..

[89Hen]

Sorry to all our El Cid fans, but they are the worst of the top 10. I would favor all other 9 over them.