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Three weeks left and a lot can happen but took a shot at what I think is possible.

Assuming that the Big Sky gets 4 teams

Eastern Washington IN
Cal Poly - IN, if they win one of their remaining 3

So let's assume that Cal Poly and Eastern Washington get in and that the Big Sky gets four teams in.

It would then appear that 4 teams are battling for those two at-large berths

North Dakota - IN, with a win at UNC or home against NAU,lose both and they are at risk if two teams below (UNC, NAU and Montana) hit their play-in scenarios

Northern Colorado - IN by winning out, with wins at home against North Dakota & Montana and away against Cal Poly OR if they win two of three and Montana loses at least two of three

Northern Arizona - IN by winning out, with wins away at Weber State & North Dakota and home against Southern Utah, AND ONLY IF UNC fails to take care of their play-in scenario

Montana - IN, with at least two of three wins, with at least two of the above (UND, UNC and NAU) failing to take care of their play-in scenarios.

If UNC, NAU and Montana ALL fail to meet their play-in scenarios then the Big Sky gets only three teams

Good analysis, but I'm not sure why you forgot Weber. There also isn't a set quota of teams getting in—5 berths are plausible if Montana & the NAU/Weber winner both win out.


EWU - In for sure with a win. Probably in even without a win, but you never know. They play ISU at home, though, so that scenario isn't gonna happen.

Cal Poly - In for sure with 2 wins. Probably in with just 1 win, but their momentum wouldn't be good and that could be a factor. They don't have a gimme in their last 3 games, either.

NoDak - In for sure with a win, iffy if they lose both. Neither one of their games is a gimme, either, though NAU could be knocked out of contention before UND plays them.

Montana - In for sure if they win out, probably out if they lose a game. The Griz have the easiest remaining schedule and everything likely comes down to the game in Greeley, where UM is the favorite.

NoCo - Their hopes seem nominal at this point. UNC is 5-3 with the meat of their schedule still upcoming. If the Bears can somehow win out, they make the playoffs easy, but even winning 2 seems pretty unlikely. I'm guessing they don't get in at 7-4.

Weber - In for sure if they win out, iffy if they don't. The schedule isn't too bad, though, since the only road game is the easy one (ISU).

NAU - Probably in if they win out, dead if they drop one. Even the non-DI win won't likely deny them since they'd have 6 straight victories, but pulling off a 3-0 November with that schedule and without Cookus is a tall order. If the 'Jacks can pull it off, Souers should have the CotY award named after him.

SUU - They could get in if they win out, but they play BYU… so no.

Weber is going to have to win out to make the playoffs this year, 7-4 just wont cut it for them this year.

I think to assess the chances of any team, you need to look at the whole landscape. There are a LOT of really bad records out there right now outside of the CAA and MVFC.

Just giving it a very quick look reveals these teams outside of the Big Sky...

Big South (1) = winner of Liberty/CSU
CAA (4-5) = JMU, Richmond, Villanova and New Hampshire are almost locks and Stony has a shot if they win out
MEAC (2) = probably don't deserve two, but they will get it what with reparations and whatnot: NCAT and NCC
MVFC (4) = pretty clear cut conference: NDSU, YSU, SDSU, WIU
NEC (1) = and lucky to have that auto: STFU
OVC (1-2) = very well could be a one bid conference, the only chance for a second bid is EIU at 7-4 if they win out: JSU
Patriot (1) = Lehigh, Fordham has mayyyybe a chance at 8-3, but I wouldn't hold my breath
Pioneer (1) = San Diego
SoCon (3) = El Cid, Chatty and Samford are most likely locks unless Samford gets upset by Mercer or ETSU, Wofford most likely out with loss to Chatty.
Southland (2) = another conference with really bad records down the line: SHSU and UCA are the only two teams without four losses already and more are to come for those teams

So by my count that's 20 which leaves 4 for Big Sky. To get 5, you need to show me who they displace from above.

89Hen wrote:I think to assess the chances of any team, you need to look at the whole landscape. There are a LOT of really bad records out there right now outside of the CAA and MVFC.

Just giving it a very quick look reveals these teams outside of the Big Sky...

Big South (1) = winner of Liberty/CSU
CAA (4-5) = JMU, Richmond, Villanova and New Hampshire are almost locks and Stony has a shot if they win out
MEAC (2) = probably don't deserve two, but they will get it what with reparations and whatnot: NCAT and NCC
MVFC (4) = pretty clear cut conference: NDSU, YSU, SDSU, WIU
NEC (1) = and lucky to have that auto: STFU
OVC (1-2) = very well could be a one bid conference, the only chance for a second bid is EIU at 7-4 if they win out: JSU
Patriot (1) = Lehigh, Fordham has mayyyybe a chance at 8-3, but I wouldn't hold my breath
Pioneer (1) = San Diego
SoCon (3) = El Cid, Chatty and Samford are most likely locks unless Samford gets upset by Mercer or ETSU, Wofford most likely out with loss to Chatty.
Southland (2) = another conference with really bad records down the line: SHSU and UCA are the only two teams without four losses already and more are to come for those teams

So by my count that's 20 which leaves 4 for Big Sky. To get 5, you need to show me who they displace from above.

You forgot that the MEAC isn't participating anymore, though I guess it's possible the NCAT/NC Central loser could get an at-large (will one of them try to tank the game? ).

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

89Hen wrote:I think to assess the chances of any team, you need to look at the whole landscape. There are a LOT of really bad records out there right now outside of the CAA and MVFC.

Just giving it a very quick look reveals these teams outside of the Big Sky...

Big South (1) = winner of Liberty/CSU
CAA (4-5) = JMU, Richmond, Villanova and New Hampshire are almost locks and Stony has a shot if they win out
MEAC (2) = probably don't deserve two, but they will get it what with reparations and whatnot: NCAT and NCC
MVFC (4) = pretty clear cut conference: NDSU, YSU, SDSU, WIU
NEC (1) = and lucky to have that auto: STFU
OVC (1-2) = very well could be a one bid conference, the only chance for a second bid is EIU at 7-4 if they win out: JSU
Patriot (1) = Lehigh, Fordham has mayyyybe a chance at 8-3, but I wouldn't hold my breath
Pioneer (1) = San Diego
SoCon (3) = El Cid, Chatty and Samford are most likely locks unless Samford gets upset by Mercer or ETSU, Wofford most likely out with loss to Chatty.
Southland (2) = another conference with really bad records down the line: SHSU and UCA are the only two teams without four losses already and more are to come for those teams

So by my count that's 20 which leaves 4 for Big Sky. To get 5, you need to show me who they displace from above.

You forgot that the MEAC isn't participating anymore, though I guess it's possible the NCAT/NC Central loser could get an at-large (will one of them try to tank the game? ).

Yeah, bad on me. That does free up two spots. No way the NCAA takes the second place MEAC while the champ sits out. We've had that discussion many times about the SWAC. It's just not happening.

89Hen wrote:Yeah, bad on me. That does free up two spots. No way the NCAA takes the second place MEAC while the champ sits out. We've had that discussion many times about the SWAC. It's just not happening.

There hasn't been a SWAC also-ran with a good enough resume, though, in part because of two divisions and the fact that Grambling, Southern, and ASU have conflicts Thanskgiving weekend & can't do the playoffs anyway.

I think there's a good chance NCAT gets an at-large if they lose to NC Central, but they've looked considerably better than the Eagles to this point so an upset is unlikely.

Montana calls dibs on SAN Diego in the first round!

Mvemjsunpx wrote:Good analysis, but I'm not sure why you forgot Weber. There also isn't a set quota of teams getting in—5 berths are plausible if Montana & the NAU/Weber winner both win out.


EWU - In for sure with a win. Probably in even without a win, but you never know. They play ISU at home, though, so that scenario isn't gonna happen.

Cal Poly - In for sure with 2 wins. Probably in with just 1 win, but their momentum wouldn't be good and that could be a factor. They don't have a gimme in their last 3 games, either.

NoDak - In for sure with a win, iffy if they lose both. Neither one of their games is a gimme, either, though NAU could be knocked out of contention before UND plays them.

Montana - In for sure if they win out, probably out if they lose a game. The Griz have the easiest remaining schedule and everything likely comes down to the game in Greeley, where UM is the favorite.

NoCo - Their hopes seem nominal at this point. UNC is 5-3 with the meat of their schedule still upcoming. If the Bears can somehow win out, they make the playoffs easy, but even winning 2 seems pretty unlikely. I'm guessing they don't get in at 7-4.

Weber - In for sure if they win out, iffy if they don't. The schedule isn't too bad, though, since the only road game is the easy one (ISU).

NAU - Probably in if they win out, dead if they drop one. Even the non-DI win won't likely deny them since they'd have 6 straight victories, but pulling off a 3-0 November with that schedule and without Cookus is a tall order. If the 'Jacks can pull it off, Souers should have the CotY award named after him.

SUU - They could get in if they win out, but they play BYU… so no.

Wow, not sure why I blanked out on Weber State... Agree that If they win out they probably get in. But UNC would certainly get in before them if they win out.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

89Hen wrote:Yeah, bad on me. That does free up two spots. No way the NCAA takes the second place MEAC while the champ sits out. We've had that discussion many times about the SWAC. It's just not happening.

There hasn't been a SWAC also-ran with a good enough resume, though, in part because of two divisions and the fact that Grambling, Southern, and ASU have conflicts Thanskgiving weekend & can't do the playoffs anyway.

I think there's a good chance NCAT gets an at-large if they lose to NC Central, but they've looked considerably better than the Eagles to this point so an upset is unlikely.

I'm going back a while. SWAC hasn't participated in a long time but there were a couple years with a team that could have ended up available with a good record and some people were speculating that they could get a bid. IIRC somebody at the NCAA even came out and said off the record, no way.

89Hen wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
There hasn't been a SWAC also-ran with a good enough resume, though, in part because of two divisions and the fact that Grambling, Southern, and ASU have conflicts Thanskgiving weekend & can't do the playoffs anyway.

I think there's a good chance NCAT gets an at-large if they lose to NC Central, but they've looked considerably better than the Eagles to this point so an upset is unlikely.

I'm going back a while. SWAC hasn't participated in a long time but there were a couple years with a team that could have ended up available with a good record and some people were speculating that they could get a bid. IIRC somebody at the NCAA even came out and said off the record, no way.

OK, fair enough. The official criteria has changed so much since then, though, that it's anyone's guess what would happen.

According to the committee, the Southland and Southern conferences are the toughest, with 2 teams each in the initial top 10 released Thursday. Those 10 are pretty much locks unless something unforeseen happens. The were basing it on SOS, but did Jacksonville State or Sam Houston have the toughest schedules? They had the most wins without a FCS loss. Looks like playing a weaker schedule pays offs. SHSU's schedule is 232 out of 254 according to Sagrin. Just win baby.