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We pretty much know EWU and Maine will be the auto qualifiers for the playoffs.

How many at large bids will the two conferences receive?

Right now, the Big Sky has:

Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, and Southern Utah in the likely conversation. Cal Poly and Portland State still alive as well.

The CAA has Towson, W&M, Delaware, NH, and JMU.

How many hear their name on Sunday, November 24th?

I think 4 for the CAA: Maine, Towson, W&M, Delaware

Montana state has to be in there
Montana shd be be there

SUU/NAU winner shd get a shot due to strength of schedule if nothing else.

Answer:3

Southern Utah would be a stretch with Montana state and n arizona still to play.

BlackFalkin wrote:Montana state has to be in there
Montana shd be be there

SUU/NAU winner shd get a shot due to strength of schedule if nothing else.

Answer:3

If SUU wins out, yes. They would be 9-3, with FBS win, and wins over NAU and MSU

MSU, though, if they lose both games, would be 7-5 and out. Even splitting puts them on the bubble.

I say four though:

EWU, UM, MSU and NAU

dbackjon wrote:

BlackFalkin wrote:Montana state has to be in there
Montana shd be be there

SUU/NAU winner shd get a shot due to strength of schedule if nothing else.

Answer:3

If SUU wins out, yes. They would be 9-3, with FBS win, and wins over NAU and MSU

MSU, though, if they lose both games, would be 7-5 and out. Even splitting puts them on the bubble.

I say four though:

EWU, UM, MSU and NAU

You mean "3" BIDS. But I'm going to correct myself and say this : IF NAU BEATS SUU THEY SHD BE IN AND SUU SHD BE OUT BUT IF SUU BEATS NAU THEY BOTH SHD BE IN.

BlackFalkin wrote:Montana state has to be in there
Montana shd be be there

SUU/NAU winner shd get a shot due to strength of schedule if nothing else.

Answer:3

What makes SUUs strength of schedule so good? One of their wins is against a DII (Fort Lewis) school. I don't see them winning out and an absolute but kicking by UC Davis is not something an At Large selection can afford on their resume.

dbackjon wrote:

BlackFalkin wrote:Montana state has to be in there
Montana shd be be there

SUU/NAU winner shd get a shot due to strength of schedule if nothing else.

Answer:3

If SUU wins out, yes. They would be 9-3, with FBS win, and wins over NAU and MSU

MSU, though, if they lose both games, would be 7-5 and out. Even splitting puts them on the bubble.

I say four though:

EWU, UM, MSU and NAU

This.

CPAlum wrote:

BlackFalkin wrote:Montana state has to be in there
Montana shd be be there

SUU/NAU winner shd get a shot due to strength of schedule if nothing else.

Answer:3

What makes SUUs strength of schedule so good? One of their wins is against a DII (Fort Lewis) school. I don't see them winning out and an absolute but kicking by UC Davis is not something an At Large selection can afford on their resume.

This year, the Sky gets TWO: UM and MSU. That's it. I'm not sure about how many CAA gets, but the Sky gets two. The Big South might get two before the Sky gets three this year....

Edit: Cr@p! How could I forget about EWU?!? Thanks, AZ.

Make that THREE bids: EWU, UM, and MSU. SUU and NAU need not apply. CCU is more likely to get in than they are....

MSU already has 3 losses. One more and they're on the bubble.
SUU has to win out, which would give NAU and MSU one more loss each.
NAU just has to get by SUU and they're in.
UM needs a WSU win and they're in.

So, I think it's EWU/UM and 2 of MSU/NAU/SUU, depending on how their head/head games come out in the next two weeks.

AZGrizFan wrote:MSU already has 3 losses. One more and they're on the bubble.
SUU has to win out, which would give NAU and MSU one more loss each.
NAU just has to get by SUU and they're in.
UM needs a WSU win and they're in.

So, I think it's EWU/UM and 2 of MSU/NAU/SUU, depending on how their head/head games come out in the next two weeks.

And what if (Huge IF) Cal Poly wins out beating EWU and UNC they'd be 7-5 and 6-2 BSC.....slim chance? No Chance? What say you?

CPAlum wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:MSU already has 3 losses. One more and they're on the bubble.
SUU has to win out, which would give NAU and MSU one more loss each.
NAU just has to get by SUU and they're in.
UM needs a WSU win and they're in.

So, I think it's EWU/UM and 2 of MSU/NAU/SUU, depending on how their head/head games come out in the next two weeks.

And what if (Huge IF) Cal Poly wins out beating EWU and UNC they'd be 7-5 and 6-2 BSC.....slim chance? No Chance? What say you?

I think they're out even if they win out.

There are too many other good teams at 8-4 or better.

They would need some massive, crazy help the next two weeks.

I see the most likely scenario that plays out is the Big Sky getting 4 teams in.

Those teams are:
EWU (Seed)
Montana (Seed)
MSU
NAU

uofmman1122 wrote:

CPAlum wrote:

And what if (Huge IF) Cal Poly wins out beating EWU and UNC they'd be 7-5 and 6-2 BSC.....slim chance? No Chance? What say you?

I think they're out even if they win out.

There are too many other good teams at 8-4 or better.

They would need some massive, crazy help the next two weeks.

Yep.....I think you are probably right but I sure hope they play EWU like they still have a chance

uofmman1122 wrote:

CPAlum wrote:

And what if (Huge IF) Cal Poly wins out beating EWU and UNC they'd be 7-5 and 6-2 BSC.....slim chance? No Chance? What say you?

I think they're out even if they win out.

There are too many other good teams at 8-4 or better.

They would need some massive, crazy help the next two weeks.

If Cal Poly wins out (big if) and you do not count the two FBS losses Cal Poly would be 7-3 vs FCS teams with a win over the 3rd rank team (EWU). One of their 3 losses is a OT loss against a top 10 team (Montana) and a 3 point loss to a ranked team (NAU). Cal Poly's only bad loss would be to Yale.

SloStang wrote:

uofmman1122 wrote:I think they're out even if they win out.

There are too many other good teams at 8-4 or better.

They would need some massive, crazy help the next two weeks.

If Cal Poly wins out (big if) and you do not count the two FBS losses Cal Poly would be 7-3 vs FCS teams with a win over the 3rd rank team (EWU). One of their 3 losses is a OT loss against a top 10 team (Montana) and a 3 point loss to a ranked team (NAU). Cal Poly's only bad loss would be to Yale.

Like I said, that's fine, but there are a ton of other, more deserving teams, IMO.

That Yale loss really hurt you guys.

It is interesting to me that SUU is in most discussions about teams from the Big Sky that have a shot. There is a remote possibility that Cal Poly finishes 7-5 with an all D1 schedule (including two FBS) with their worst loss to Yale.

My guess is that SUU will finish 8-5 (losing to MSU and NAU and beating Weber). Their wins would include a win at home against DII Fort Lewis and an embarrassing loss (was it 3-21?) to UC Davis.

In the scenario above Cal Poly is a more deserving At Large IMHO.

Personally I think the BSC will get 3 teams in EWU, Montana and MSU or NAU

While I don't believe either team will get in, CP is INFINITELY more worthy than SUU....

I think the Big Sky puts 4 in... hard for me to imagine a circumstance where that doesn't happen. Even at 8-4 (should they lose to Montana), I think Montana State gets a first-round game and then gets sent to North Dakota State to make "reparations" for their coitus interuptus.

CPAlum wrote:What makes SUUs strength of schedule so good? One of their wins is against a DII (Fort Lewis) school. I don't see them winning out and an absolute but kicking by UC Davis is not something an At Large selection can afford on their resume.

Tell that to UNH last year!

If SUU can pull the upset in Bozeman this week, their game against NAU will have large playoff implications - for both teams. SUU is an absolute lock if they were to win out but even splitting these two - that's one solid FCS win against a ranked opponent plus the FBS. Not saying they'd be in at 8-4 but definitely a bubble team with two quality wins greater than some the teams they'd be competing with.

I probably need to watch them some more, but based on the couple of games I've seen them play, I just don't see SUU as a playoff caliber team.


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EWU, Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, and Southern Utah.

Poly wins out they are 7-5 with 2 FBS losses. The bottom 7 of the Sky are bad.

Maine, Towson, Delaware, Bill and Mary.

uofmman1122 wrote:

SloStang wrote:If Cal Poly wins out (big if) and you do not count the two FBS losses Cal Poly would be 7-3 vs FCS teams with a win over the 3rd rank team (EWU). One of their 3 losses is a OT loss against a top 10 team (Montana) and a 3 point loss to a ranked team (NAU). Cal Poly's only bad loss would be to Yale.

Like I said, that's fine, but there are a ton of other, more deserving teams, IMO.

That Yale loss really hurt you guys.

There will be teams with better records against weaker schedules, but that does not make them better teams or more deserving. Replace Fresno State and Colorado State with two wins against mid level FCS teams and if Cal Poly wins out they would be 9-3 with two close losses against ranked teams and a win over the 3rd ranked team. Like I said before they probably won't get in, but they certainly would not be an easy out for any team if they made it in.

EWURanger wrote:I probably need to watch them some more, but based on the couple of games I've seen them play, I just don't see SUU as a playoff caliber team.


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Not saying they're playoff worthy and if I was a betting man I'd guess they lose the next two. But they play solid defense which gives them a chance the next two weeks, especially at home. FWIW, if you only watched MSU's games against a 3-6 SFA and EWU it would be hard making the case they are a playoff team as well.