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So some teams were formally eliminated today (like my Hornets, who were probably done a few weeks ago, anyway). Here's how I see the remaining teams. I'm not including everybody, just those whose record say they have SOMETHING of a shot right now.

Big Sky

MSU/EWU - In. AQ to be decided 11/9.
NAU - Probable. Only UNC/SUU left, so no sign of the usual meltdown. Yet.
UM - Probable. Speedbump: MSU 11/23.
SUU - Out. Unlikely to win out as required due to MSU 11/16, NAU 11/23.

Big South

CCU/CSU - Unsettled. Winner 11/9 probably gets AQ, but both have problem games to close the season: CCU: South Carolina, CSU: Spoiler Liberty. Unsure if Big South will get two bids. CSU may get extra credit for playing Pac-12 Colorado, but that may cancel out with playing D-II Shorter close. Best guess: Coastal AQ, Chuck South snub.

Colonial

UMAINE - In. Probable AQ.
Towson State - Probable. "Seeding" could be affected by games against B&M and JMU.
Delaware - Probable. Bracketing could be affected by games against B&M and spoiler Villanova.
UNH - Possible. Must win out, and UMAINE 11/23 will make that proposition difficult.
B&M - Possible. Must win out, though UD 11/9 and Towson State 11/16 will make it tough.
JMU - Possible. Must beat one of UNH 11/9 and Towson State 11/23.

MEAC

Bethune-Cookman - In with AQ.
SC State - Possible. Must win out and get help elsewhere. Probably done.

MVC

NDSU - In with AQ.
YSU - In.
IL State - Out. NDSU 11/9 too tough.
SIU - Possible. Must win out.
SD State. YSU 11/23 too tough.

Northeast

Duquesne - Possible. Must beat Sacred Heart 11/9.
RMU - Possible. Must beat Sacred Heart 11/16.
Bryant - Possible. Must win out and get help to get AQ.
CCSU - Out. Duquesne 11/16 too tough.
Sacred Heart - Probable AQ. Must win out.

OVC

EIU - In with AQ.
TN State - In.
EKU - Possible. Must win out.
Murray State - Out. TN State 11/16 too tough.
UT-Martin - Out. Memphis State 11/9 and EIU 11/23 too much.
Jacksonville State - Probable. Must beat one of EKU 11/9 and SEMO 11/23.

Patriot

Lafayette - Out. Lehigh 11/23 too tough.
Colgate - Out. Lehigh 11/16 too tough.
Bucknell - Out. Fordham 11/9 too tough.
Lehigh - In with AQ.

Pioneer

San Diego - In with AQ due to H-2-H win over Butler.
Butler - Possible. No AQ due to H-2-H loss to San Diego. Committee MIGHT be nice to a 9-3 team.
Marist - Out. Closing with Mercer 11/16.
Dayton - Out. Two conference losses is too much in the Pioneer.
Drake - Out.

SoCon

Samford/UT-Chattanooga - In. AQ decided 11/16. Wofford 11/9 could spoil it for UT-C, though.
Wofford - Probable. Win vs. UT-Chattanooga 11/9 would help.
Furman - Out. Samford 11/9 is too tough.
GA Southern - Out. Last game is vs. Florida.

Southland

SELA - In. "Seeding" could be affected by games vs. UCA 11/9 and SHSU 11/16.
McNeese State- In. Probable AQ.
SHSU - In. Bracketing could be affected by games vs. SELA 11/16 and UCA 11/23.

SWAC

Jackson State - Probable. Must win out. Alcorn State could play spoiler.
AL State - Possible. Must win out AND hope Alcorn State upsets Jackson State.
Alcorn State - Out. Must win out and hope AL State loses twice.
Southern - Out. Committed to Bayou Classic vs. Grambling State 11/30.
Prairie View A&M - Out. Three or more conference losses in SWAC doesn't cut it.

1. You are out of your damn mind if you think the playoff committee would take -two- Pioneer teams.

2. Jackson State doesn't play in the playoffs.

3. Georgia Southern was out as soon as the season kicked off.

4. UNH is probably out at this point.

5. MEAC is a one-bid.

MrTitleist wrote:1. You are out of your damn mind if you think the playoff committee would take -two- Pioneer teams.

Correct. Same for the NEC.

5. MEAC is a one-bid.

Not so sure on that. I think SCSU will probably get in if they win out (which they should).

4. UNH is probably out at this point.

Eh, maybe not. Any 4-loss CAA team has a shot, and they would add wins over JMU & Maine if they win out. Not adding a 12th. game may end up dooming them…

I wouldn't put Tn State in either.

SuperHornet wrote:So some teams were formally eliminated today (like my Hornets, who were probably done a few weeks ago, anyway). Here's how I see the remaining teams. I'm not including everybody, just those whose record say they have SOMETHING of a shot right now.

Big Sky

MSU/EWU - In. AQ to be decided 11/9.
NAU - Probable. Only UNC/SUU left, so no sign of the usual meltdown. Yet.
UM - Probable. Speedbump: MSU 11/23.
SUU - Out. Unlikely to win out as required due to MSU 11/16, NAU 11/23.

My take on the Big Sky

MSU is nowhere near safe. If they lose to EWU & Montana they're 8-4 and likely on the outside. SUU isn't a gimme, either. The SFA loss looms large…

EWU would have to lose out to miss; they should get in at 8-4 with that schedule. Losing out is possible, but exceedingly unlikely (MSU, @ CP, PSU-who they always struggle with).

NAU just has to win once, and they have NoCo at home. Even "the usual meltdown" can't choke that away, right?

Montana has to win 2 of 3, but with a gimme against Weber at home it's effectively win 1 of 2. Beat SoDak in a week & the Griz are in without needing to put the whole season on the line in Bozeman.

Agree with you on SUU. They will get in if they win out, but that's unlikely. I doubt they're in at 8-4.

PSU is 5-4, but with two non-DI wins and nothing resembling a quality victory they're effectively dead.

Mvemjsunpx wrote:Montana has to win 2 of 3, but with a gimme against Weber at home it's effectively win 1 of 2. Beat SoDak in a week & the Griz are in without needing to put the whole season on the line in Bozeman.

PSU is 5-4, but with two non-DI wins and nothing resembling a quality victory they're effectively dead.

That game at South Dakota may not be as much of a gimme as it was just a few weeks ago. The Coyotes are playing some good football right now, especially at home. I wouldn't want to be playing them now.

I like that PSU is still included in the talks and it would be interesting if we win out what would happen, being on a 5 game winning streak and our quality win the last game of the year at EWU. However, I highly doubt we are going anywhere, even winning out. The season was pretty much lost after the Southern Utah game.

You didn't mention a certain 9-0 team going as an at large.

IMO the Big Sky gets 4 in this year:

EWU
Montana State
Montana
Northern Arizona

Right now the Valley is only a 2 bid conference....

NDSU and YSU are in.

SDSU and SIU are the only others that could make it...although Ill State might make it in if they win out but no way they win in Fargo this week.

I say the Valley gets 3 with SDSU/SIU taking the other spot...but SIU has the head/head win over SDSU so they control their own playoff fate.

SuperHornet wrote:Colonial

UMAINE - In. Probable AQ.
Towson State - Probable. "Seeding" could be affected by games against B&M and JMU.
Delaware - Probable. Bracketing could be affected by games against B&M and spoiler Villanova.
UNH - Possible. Must win out, and UMAINE 11/23 will make that proposition difficult.
B&M - Possible. Must win out, though UD 11/9 and Towson State 11/16 will make it tough.
JMU - Possible. Must beat one of UNH 11/9 and Towson State 11/23.

Why does W&M need to win out? They are 6-3 right now. Winning 2 of next 3 should be good enough at 8-4 to put them in which would mean they would have wins against JMU, UNH, and either at Towson or at Delaware and only losses at WVU (last 4 minute), at Maine, at Towson or at Delaware, and at Nova (last minute). Also, would likely have the tiebreaker against JMU if both finish at 8-4 due to 17-7 win against them

Pride: If what Mr. T. had to say about Jackson State is correct (and I have no reason to doubt him, though the only HBCUs that I knew for sure that blew off the playoffs as a matter of course were Southern and Grambling), that might be enough for B&M to get in 8-4.

Mr. T: You are likely correct about the Pioneer. But weirder things have happened with teams at nine wins, particularly when they are east of the Big Sky but not in the Big South. I'm not at all confident that the Committee WILL take a 9-3 Butler team that fails to get the AQ, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility. The question would then be who gets the snub if Butler DOES get the nod. B&M? NAU? Who knows? As you say, the point is probably moot.

For the peanut gallery: do you know of anyone with enough historical rep and on enough of a current roll to get an at-large at 7-5? I presume, as per usual, that barring an AQ, a 6-win record, while technically "eligible," won't be anywhere near enough to get it done.

SuperHornet wrote:Pride: If what Mr. T. had to say about Jackson State is correct (and I have no reason to doubt him, though the only HBCUs that I knew for sure that blew off the playoffs as a matter of course were Southern and Grambling), that might be enough for B&M to get in 8-4.

Mr. T: You are likely correct about the Pioneer. But weirder things have happened with teams at nine wins, particularly when they are east of the Big Sky but not in the Big South. I'm not at all confident that the Committee WILL take a 9-3 Butler team that fails to get the AQ, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility. The question would then be who gets the snub if Butler DOES get the nod. B&M? NAU? Who knows? As you say, the point is probably moot.

For the peanut gallery: do you know of anyone with enough historical rep and on enough of a current roll to get an at-large at 7-5? I presume, as per usual, that barring an AQ, a 6-win record, while technically "eligible," won't be anywhere near enough to get it done.

Why would Jackson State have any effect on W&M's ability to make the playoffs at 8-4. At 8-4, W&M's resume would be better than Jackson St at 9-2.

Also, it seems that you are giving JMU a chance at 8-4 and not close to as much for W&M. Not sure why that is since we beat them 17-7 2 weeks ago and both teams otherwise would have similar strengths of wins and losses.

I gotta say, I think we will make the playoffs but I still don't feel like we are a playoff team. I wish I was wrong but the Koolaid just isn't tasting very well lately.

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:I gotta say, I think we will make the playoffs but I still don't feel like we are a playoff team. I wish I was wrong but the Koolaid just isn't tasting very well lately.

We need a lot of shoring up on D to have any chance of a deep run, but I certainly think we're capable of winning a first round game and maybe even upsetting a seed in the second (unless that seed is NDSU). Don't be so friggin' negative.

Grizalltheway wrote:

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:I gotta say, I think we will make the playoffs but I still don't feel like we are a playoff team. I wish I was wrong but the Koolaid just isn't tasting very well lately.

We need a lot of shoring up on D to have any chance of a deep run, but I certainly think we're capable of winning a first round game and maybe even upsetting a seed in the second (unless that seed is NDSU). Don't be so friggin' negative.

You have a very good offense, especially if you let JJ chuck it some more. Your front 7 on d are also good and if/when you get Goodwin back, I think you have enough playmakers on d to be a very tough out.

kalm wrote:

Grizalltheway wrote:
We need a lot of shoring up on D to have any chance of a deep run, but I certainly think we're capable of winning a first round game and maybe even upsetting a seed in the second (unless that seed is NDSU). Don't be so friggin' negative.

You have a very good offense, especially if you let JJ chuck it some more. Your front 7 on d are also good and if/when you get Goodwin back, I think you have enough playmakers on d to be a very tough out.

(double post)

kalm wrote:
You have a very good offense, especially if you let JJ chuck it some more. Your front 7 on d are also good and if/when you get Goodwin back, I think you have enough playmakers on d to be a very tough out.

Goodwin was back yesterday.

Safron just played really good. The Griz secondary could've played better, of course, but Sac's top two WRs are good & Safron was able to make plays even though the Griz front pretty much dominated their O-Line. UM won because they didn't turn it over (unlike against NAU) and they didn't give up cheap big plays (unlike against EWU).

tribe_pride wrote:Why does W&M need to win out? They are 6-3 right now. Winning 2 of next 3 should be good enough at 8-4 to put them in which would mean they would have wins against JMU, UNH, and either at Towson or at Delaware and only losses at WVU (last 4 minute), at Maine, at Towson or at Delaware, and at Nova (last minute). Also, would likely have the tiebreaker against JMU if both finish at 8-4 due to 17-7 win against them

Tribe Pride, not aimed at your Wm & Mary, or any specific team, but in general...
There are fans out there of multiple teams in various conferences all convinced that 'their' team (or one of their conference foes) should be a playoff lock with an 8-4 record. A few of these fans may be please on selection day but the vast majority will not.

It is hard to know at this point how many teams end up at 8-4. Yet the number of that field will certainly be a factor, and at the moment there are plenty of possible candidates. Add in teams that end with three losses, and a few two loss teams (even from weak conferences), and the majority of four loss teams will be watching the playoffs on TV. Win and you're in. At least that is my two bits.

Grizalltheway wrote:

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:I gotta say, I think we will make the playoffs but I still don't feel like we are a playoff team. I wish I was wrong but the Koolaid just isn't tasting very well lately.

We need a lot of shoring up on D to have any chance of a deep run, but I certainly think we're capable of winning a first round game and maybe even upsetting a seed in the second (unless that seed is NDSU). Don't be so friggin' negative.

Not trying to be negative, just realistic. I am convinced we have the capability but we fail to put it together week in and week out, that is my only negative I guess. We do big plays and can be scary that way but we just aren't very consistent and that is what it will take to make any noise.

NDSU losses out.
YSU losses out.

MSU wins out.

The Bears earn the MVC autobid!!!

For My T-Birds:

-We seem to have found the spark on offense that we needed with QB Mike Sharp who has done a pretty dang good job so far this season (Passing: 17-33, 1 TD, 1 Int. 224yds; Rushing: 31, 218yds, 1 TD) and despite the score the game against Idaho State we had over 418 yards of total offense, the largest total of the year. What we need to work on is our redzone/scoring offense which I feel can and will get better over time. Now I do agree with the above that we have to win out to get in and though it will be tought, it wont be impossible. \

-@ Weber State: Like last season we should win this game and after the Wildcats upset us last season at home highly doubt we will be overlooking them this season. I see us coming out and an improving on offense to get us the win.

-@ Montana State: The toughest game on our schedule remaining and the only way I see us winning this game is riding our defense which has been great this season to win. Biggest thing will be shutting down Mcghee and Kirk which will be a tall task.

-vs NAU: This should be another great game in what has become a great rivalry in the Big Sky with the last five games being decided by a total of only 21 points. Another tough matchup but with us being home and the tendency for NAU to implode late in the season we have a good shot on winning.

Now lets say if we were to only win x2 out of the x3 games that would leave us with an 8-4 Record overall with 7 D1 wins, including a win over FBS Southern Alabama which at least will give us a chance to take one of the last slots into the playoffs with help from other conferences being weaker and some teams like GSU not allowed to play since they are going FBS, however chances are we need all three wins to get in.

MrTitleist wrote:1. You are out of your damn mind if you think the playoff committee would take -two- Pioneer teams.

2. Jackson State doesn't play in the playoffs.

3. Georgia Southern was out as soon as the season kicked off.

4. UNH is probably out at this point.

5. MEAC is a one-bid.

Agreed the SWAC no longer has a playoff bid and the MEAC is a one bid league and it will be Bethune Cookman again.And if it were it would be Alcorn St or Alabama St.representing the SWAC.

SuperHornet wrote:So some teams were formally eliminated today (like my Hornets, who were probably done a few weeks ago, anyway). Here's how I see the remaining teams. I'm not including everybody, just those whose record say they have SOMETHING of a shot right now.

Big Sky

MSU/EWU - In. AQ to be decided 11/9.
NAU - Probable. Only UNC/SUU left, so no sign of the usual meltdown. Yet.
UM - Probable. Speedbump: MSU 11/23.
SUU - Out. Unlikely to win out as required due to MSU 11/16, NAU 11/23.

Big South

CCU/CSU - Unsettled. Winner 11/9 probably gets AQ, but both have problem games to close the season: CCU: South Carolina, CSU: Spoiler Liberty. Unsure if Big South will get two bids. CSU may get extra credit for playing Pac-12 Colorado, but that may cancel out with playing D-II Shorter close. Best guess: Coastal AQ, Chuck South snub.

Colonial

UMAINE - In. Probable AQ.
Towson State - Probable. "Seeding" could be affected by games against B&M and JMU.
Delaware - Probable. Bracketing could be affected by games against B&M and spoiler Villanova.
UNH - Possible. Must win out, and UMAINE 11/23 will make that proposition difficult.
B&M - Possible. Must win out, though UD 11/9 and Towson State 11/16 will make it tough.
JMU - Possible. Must beat one of UNH 11/9 and Towson State 11/23.

MEAC

Bethune-Cookman - In with AQ.
SC State - Possible. Must win out and get help elsewhere. Probably done.

MVC

NDSU - In with AQ.
YSU - In.
IL State - Out. NDSU 11/9 too tough.
SIU - Possible. Must win out.
SD State. YSU 11/23 too tough.

Northeast

Duquesne - Possible. Must beat Sacred Heart 11/9.
RMU - Possible. Must beat Sacred Heart 11/16.
Bryant - Possible. Must win out and get help to get AQ.
CCSU - Out. Duquesne 11/16 too tough.
Sacred Heart - Probable AQ. Must win out.

OVC

EIU - In with AQ.
TN State - In.
EKU - Possible. Must win out.
Murray State - Out. TN State 11/16 too tough.
UT-Martin - Out. Memphis State 11/9 and EIU 11/23 too much.
Jacksonville State - Probable. Must beat one of EKU 11/9 and SEMO 11/23.

Patriot

Lafayette - Out. Lehigh 11/23 too tough.
Colgate - Out. Lehigh 11/16 too tough.
Bucknell - Out. Fordham 11/9 too tough.
Lehigh - In with AQ.

Pioneer

San Diego - In with AQ due to H-2-H win over Butler.
Butler - Possible. No AQ due to H-2-H loss to San Diego. Committee MIGHT be nice to a 9-3 team.
Marist - Out. Closing with Mercer 11/16.
Dayton - Out. Two conference losses is too much in the Pioneer.
Drake - Out.

SoCon

Samford/UT-Chattanooga - In. AQ decided 11/16. Wofford 11/9 could spoil it for UT-C, though.
Wofford - Probable. Win vs. UT-Chattanooga 11/9 would help.
Furman - Out. Samford 11/9 is too tough.
GA Southern - Out. Last game is vs. Florida.

Southland

SELA - In. "Seeding" could be affected by games vs. UCA 11/9 and SHSU 11/16.
McNeese State- In. Probable AQ.
SHSU - In. Bracketing could be affected by games vs. SELA 11/16 and UCA 11/23.

SWAC

Jackson State - Probable. Must win out. Alcorn State could play spoiler.
AL State - Possible. Must win out AND hope Alcorn State upsets Jackson State.
Alcorn State - Out. Must win out and hope AL State loses twice.
Southern - Out. Committed to Bayou Classic vs. Grambling State 11/30.
Prairie View A&M - Out. Three or more conference losses in SWAC doesn't cut it.

Tennessee St defenders have not shown up the past two weekends and the starting QB German is out with a major injury better hope he along with the defense make a recovery if the Tigers are to win the OVC and make noise in the playoffs

dal4018 wrote:Tennessee St defenders have not shown up the past two weekends and the starting QB German is out with a major injury better hope he along with the defense make a recovery if the Tigers are to win the OVC and make noise in the playoffs

There's no way they're gonna win the OVC (EIU basically has that sewn up). They need to turn things around in a hurry to get an at-large bid.

SH, you may want to do some more homework.

89Hen wrote:SH, you may want to do some more homework.

Yeah, Ga. Southern shouldn't have even been listed. Coastal/Chas. So. is still undecided and even then, as much as I hate to say it, don't expect either to advance very far.

Pioneer, two teams...HAHAHAHA. Don't make me laugh.

SC State - See Ga Southern. They shouldn't have been listed.