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Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.

Pwns wrote:Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.

In 2012:

MSU, Cal Poly (those two teams IMO will battle for the conference title), Montana, and North Dakota.

The Big Sky will get in 3 maybe 4. MSU, EWU, Cal Poly and/or UM if they get decent QB play. I am not yet sold on UND being a playoff team just yet. PSU is improving, but may have to take a step back this year with the loss of their stud QB and RB. Fun offense to watch though! No idea on Weber and their coaching change, but they are capable of beating anybody in the conference on a given day. SUU is the dark horse out there with their QB. Might just end up beating the he!! out of each other and only two get in, but I'll say three for sure!

canyoncat wrote:The Big Sky will get in 3 maybe 4. MSU, EWU, Cal Poly and/or UM if they get decent QB play. I am not yet sold on UND being a playoff team just yet. PSU is improving, but may have to take a step back this year with the loss of their stud QB and RB. Fun offense to watch though! No idea on Weber and their coaching change, but they are capable of beating anybody in the conference on a given day. SUU is the dark horse out there with their QB. Might just end up beating the he!! out of each other and only two get in, but I'll say three for sure!

I throw UND in as a homer pick. If UM's offseason problems knock them from the top to say a 5-6 or a 6-5 UND could squeeze in. The GWFC teams are big question marks because we aren't used to play in a big conference. I expect Cal Poly to challenge MSU for the title, then that leaves UND, SUU and UC Davis. UC Davis had problems last year and it could be a long season for them, UND loaded up on recruits during transition so they will be ready for this year and beyond, SUU had problems being consistant last year (ranked early in the year after an FBS win then it all fell apart). I think it will be a good dogfight for the last playoff spot.

Pwns wrote:Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season...

All teams will play the same number of DI games no matter how many teams are in the conference.

Darell1976 wrote:

canyoncat wrote:The Big Sky will get in 3 maybe 4. MSU, EWU, Cal Poly and/or UM if they get decent QB play. I am not yet sold on UND being a playoff team just yet. PSU is improving, but may have to take a step back this year with the loss of their stud QB and RB. Fun offense to watch though! No idea on Weber and their coaching change, but they are capable of beating anybody in the conference on a given day. SUU is the dark horse out there with their QB. Might just end up beating the he!! out of each other and only two get in, but I'll say three for sure!

I throw UND in as a homer pick. If UM's offseason problems knock them from the top to say a 5-6 or a 6-5 UND could squeeze in. The GWFC teams are big question marks because we aren't used to play in a big conference. I expect Cal Poly to challenge MSU for the title, then that leaves UND, SUU and UC Davis. UC Davis had problems last year and it could be a long season for them, UND loaded up on recruits during transition so they will be ready for this year and beyond, SUU had problems being consistant last year (ranked early in the year after an FBS win then it all fell apart). I think it will be a good dogfight for the last playoff spot.

Anything can happen, but do not count out EWU. What kept them down last year was all the injuries. If they are healthy they will be there. As long as who ever is playing QB for the griz he just needs to be a good game manager. Their O-line and rb's will win them some game this year. Especially early on. MSU needs the O-line to come together really quick. Not a lot of experience out side of our very undersized center. Lots of talent, but they have to come together as a unit. Everywhere else, I think MSU is better than last year.

3 teams make the playoffs from the Big Sky-

NAU, MSU ( share title) and EWU. UM is fourth -too many off field distarctions.

NAU finally gets it right and plays with consistancy.

JackParty wrote:3 teams make the playoffs from the Big Sky-

NAU, MSU ( share title) and EWU. UM is fourth -too many off field distarctions.

NAU finally gets it right and plays with consistancy.

NAU is at a huge disadvantage right out of the gate. They are likely to be 0-2 after three games (Ft Lewis is a non-counter). They will need to go 7-1 the rest of the season to feel good about getting a spot. They are lucky to not play EWU or MSU this year, but there's not much room for error after that start. Last time NAU went 7-1 in the Big Sky was 1996.

at Montana
Portland State
at North Dakota
UC Davis
at Northern Colorado
at Idaho State
Southern Utah
Cal Poly

89Hen wrote:

JackParty wrote:3 teams make the playoffs from the Big Sky-

NAU, MSU ( share title) and EWU. UM is fourth -too many off field distarctions.

NAU finally gets it right and plays with consistancy.

NAU is at a huge disadvantage right out of the gate. They are likely to be 0-2 after three games (Ft Lewis is a non-counter). They will need to go 7-1 the rest of the season to feel good about getting a spot. They are lucky to not play EWU or MSU this year, but there's not much room for error after that start. Last time NAU went 7-1 in the Big Sky was 1996.

at Montana
Portland State
at North Dakota
UC Davis
at Northern Colorado
at Idaho State
Southern Utah
Cal Poly

4-4 at BEST for NAU in those 8.

89Hen wrote:

JackParty wrote:3 teams make the playoffs from the Big Sky-

NAU, MSU ( share title) and EWU. UM is fourth -too many off field distarctions.

NAU finally gets it right and plays with consistancy.

NAU is at a huge disadvantage right out of the gate. They are likely to be 0-2 after three games (Ft Lewis is a non-counter). They will need to go 7-1 the rest of the season to feel good about getting a spot. They are lucky to not play EWU or MSU this year, but there's not much room for error after that start. Last time NAU went 7-1 in the Big Sky was 1996.

Exact same spot UNI is in thanks to the Savannah St debacle.

Threeve

2 teams - 100%
3 teams - 75%
4 teams - 50%

I'd say the safe bet right now is three teams, with 4 a very real possibility.

If I had to predict right now as to who those 3 teams would be, it'd be MSU, EWU, and Cal Poly.

EWURanger wrote:2 teams - 100%
3 teams - 75%
4 teams - 50%

I'd say the safe bet right now is three teams, with 4 a very real possibility.

If I had to predict right now as to who those 3 teams would be, it'd be MSU, EWU, and Cal Poly.

Can't argue with that.

[quote="Pwns"]Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.[/quote]

They haven't gone CAA on us. Looking at the schedules for the 11 CAA teams and 13 BS:

# of CAA teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 1
# of BS teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 6

# of CAA teams scheduling a Div II: 1
# of BS teams scheduling a Div II: 8

Heck, I see NAU has 2 I-A AND a Div II meaning unless they pull an upset over one of the I-A they'd have to go 7-1 in the The Big Sky just to get to the 7 Div I wins to be eligible.

If the Big Sky scheduled like the CAA would get 4-5 in. But the way their teams scheduled makes that highly unlikely.

BDKJMU wrote:[quote="Pwns"]Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.

They haven't gone CAA on us. Looking at the schedules for the 11 CAA teams and 13 BS:

# of CAA teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 1
# of BS teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 6

# of CAA teams scheduling a Div II: 1
# of BS teams scheduling a Div II: 8

Heck, I see NAU has 2 I-A AND a Div II meaning unless they pull an upset over one of the I-A they'd have to go 7-1 in the The Big Sky just to get to the 7 Div I wins to be eligible.

If the Big Sky scheduled like the CAA would get 4-5 in. But the way their teams scheduled makes that highly unlikely.[/quote]


Correct statement: The the Big Sky had FCS patsies nearby like the CAA, they could get 6-8 teams in
We have no choice but to schedule DII teams. Plus, most of the DII teams are on the level of the FCS patsies you guys are scheduling. JMU is playing St. Francis and Alcorn State

BDKJMU wrote:

Pwns wrote:Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.

They haven't gone CAA on us. Looking at the schedules for the 11 CAA teams and 13 BS:

# of CAA teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 1
# of BS teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 6

# of CAA teams scheduling a Div II: 1
# of BS teams scheduling a Div II: 8

Heck, I see NAU has 2 I-A AND a Div II meaning unless they pull an upset over one of the I-A they'd have to go 7-1 in the The Big Sky just to get to the 7 Div I wins to be eligible.

If the Big Sky scheduled like the CAA would get 4-5 in. But the way their teams scheduled makes that highly unlikely.

Wow. That's nuts. Can't argue with that.

89Hen wrote:

Pwns wrote:Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season...

All teams will play the same number of DI games no matter how many teams are in the conference.

But if your top 4 or 5 teams to not have to play each other, it's a big advantage. The CAA has gotten more mediocre at-larges than any of the top 4 conferences.

In a few years it'll be the Big Sky folks crowing they are the best conference because of how many teams they get in.

Pwns wrote:

89Hen wrote: All teams will play the same number of DI games no matter how many teams are in the conference.

But if your top 4 or 5 teams to not have to play each other, it's a big advantage. The CAA has gotten more mediocre at-larges than any of the top 4 conferences.

In a few years it'll be the Big Sky folks crowing they are the best conference because of how many teams they get in.

In reality, a lot of Big Sky schools are playing 9 game conference schedules - just one game doesn't count as a conference game. We don't have the OOC patsies to inflate the record, so we end up playing OOC against each other.

Jon: +1.

I've seen in another thread that at least one person expects to see at least three and up to five. I agree with that, but not necessarily with the teams involved.

My best guesses (top 3 locks, IMO, next three possible, in decreasing order of probability):

1. Montana
2. EWU
3. CP
4. MSU
5. Sac
6. BBQ U

That said, I don't believe that we'll get as many as six. We still have to account for CAA and that big conference with App. Both of those will get high numbers of entrants as well.

Pwns wrote:

89Hen wrote: All teams will play the same number of DI games no matter how many teams are in the conference.

But if your top 4 or 5 teams to not have to play each other, it's a big advantage. The CAA has gotten more mediocre at-larges than any of the top 4 conferences.

In a few years it'll be the Big Sky folks crowing they are the best conference because of how many teams they get in.

No they won't, because the way they schedule makes it unlikely they'll be able to get more than 3 with the necessary 7 Div I wins. Very outside shot at 4.

That won't change when the field goes to 24 in 2013, assuming the NCAA keeps the 7 Div I win threshold.

dbackjon wrote:

BDKJMU wrote:[quote="Pwns"]Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.

They haven't gone CAA on us. Looking at the schedules for the 11 CAA teams and 13 BS:

# of CAA teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 1
# of BS teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 6

# of CAA teams scheduling a Div II: 1
# of BS teams scheduling a Div II: 8

Heck, I see NAU has 2 I-A AND a Div II meaning unless they pull an upset over one of the I-A they'd have to go 7-1 in the The Big Sky just to get to the 7 Div I wins to be eligible.

If the Big Sky scheduled like the CAA would get 4-5 in. But the way their teams scheduled makes that highly unlikely.

Correct statement: The the Big Sky had FCS patsies nearby like the CAA, they could get 6-8 teams in
We have no choice but to schedule DII teams. Plus, most of the DII teams are on the level of the FCS patsies you guys are scheduling. JMU is playing St. Francis and Alcorn State [/quote]

No choice but tio schedule Div II teams? Excuses, excuses.

And JMU is being smart to schedule St Francis and Alcorn St considering have a guaranteed loss vs likely Top 10 WVU.

BDKJMU wrote:

dbackjon wrote:
They haven't gone CAA on us. Looking at the schedules for the 11 CAA teams and 13 BS:

# of CAA teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 1
# of BS teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 6

# of CAA teams scheduling a Div II: 1
# of BS teams scheduling a Div II: 8

Heck, I see NAU has 2 I-A AND a Div II meaning unless they pull an upset over one of the I-A they'd have to go 7-1 in the The Big Sky just to get to the 7 Div I wins to be eligible.

If the Big Sky scheduled like the CAA would get 4-5 in. But the way their teams scheduled makes that highly unlikely.

Correct statement: The the Big Sky had FCS patsies nearby like the CAA, they could get 6-8 teams in
We have no choice but to schedule DII teams. Plus, most of the DII teams are on the level of the FCS patsies you guys are scheduling. JMU is playing St. Francis and Alcorn State

No choice but tio schedule Div II teams? Excuses, excuses.

And JMU is being smart to schedule St Francis and Alcorn St considering have a guaranteed loss vs likely Top 10 WVU.[/quote]

Hey genius, how about you tell the class how many non-Big Sky, full scholly FCS teams are left in the western US?

Except for Montana and Cal Poly at the top and Idaho State and Northern Colorado at the bottom, there is quite a bit of parity between the other 9 schools. On any given year, a couple of them might rise to be contenders and a few more as pretenders. This parity, unfortunately, could keep the Big Sky from getting a lot of teams in.

Even with all of their problems, I think the Grizz get into the playoffs.

These 4 have the best chance:

Montana
Montana State
Cal Poly
EWU

I think Montana State is a "paper tiger" but maybe this year they prove their ranking is legit. Cal Poly doesn't have Grizz or Cats on their schedule this year, so that makes them a real contender for the BSC.

I don't think anyone else has a chance besides the 4 just mentioned, IMO.

BDKJMU wrote:[quote="Pwns"]Now that the Big Sky has gone all CAA on us and isn't having a round-robin conference schedule how will that affect how many teams they have with at least 7 DI wins at the end of the season? I'm thinking you will have four teams with a case to get into the playoffs...Griz, Cats, EWU, and SUU.

They haven't gone CAA on us. Looking at the schedules for the 11 CAA teams and 13 BS:

# of CAA teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 1
# of BS teams scheduling 2 I-A teams: 6

# of CAA teams scheduling a Div II: 1
# of BS teams scheduling a Div II: 8

Heck, I see NAU has 2 I-A AND a Div II meaning unless they pull an upset over one of the I-A they'd have to go 7-1 in the The Big Sky just to get to the 7 Div I wins to be eligible.

If the Big Sky scheduled like the CAA would get 4-5 in. But the way their teams scheduled makes that highly unlikely.[/quote]





Now that Cal Poly only has to schedule 3 OOC games instead of 7, they were able to put together a good schedule for the first time in forever. No DII and only one FBS game. OOC schedule is San Diego, @ Wyoming and @ Eastern Washington. In 2013 it is even better, San Diego, @ Fresno State, @ Colorado State and Yale.