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Still early but thought I'd start this thread now that the season is about half over.

So far MSU looks like they have a great shot at the autobid and the Griz for an at-large. Weber, EWU and Sac even PSU look like they have a chance at a post season. Could the Sky get 3 in? Can we get 4 without next yr's expansion?



To get 7 wins
MSU 4-1 vs DI, 5 games left to get 3 wins
UM 4-2 vs DI, 4 games left to get 3 wins
Sac 3-3, 5 games left to get 4 wins
PSU 2-2, 5 games left to get 5 wins
Weber 2-3, 6 games left to get 5 wins
EWU 2-4, 5 games left to get 5 wins

EWU and PSU can't lose another game to get 7 wins. Even if Weber & EWU lose another and get 7 wins it might not be enough to get in. If 3 teams finished 7-4 that would be a trip. I am not sure if it is possible for 3 to go 7-4 and 2 more to go at least 8-3 of the 6 teams.

If PSU wins out they would be 7-2 which is better than 7-4 but against lesser OOC teams. Is it better to lose to Washington or Tennessee or not play a game which is what a non-DI looks like in the eyes of the playoff panel.

Right now, it's looking like 2, maybe 3. MSU is probably a lock, with UM, WSU, and Sac having a decent shot, and EWU and PSU as long-shots.

At the moment, I'm thinking MSU will get the auto-bid with a 9-2 record, and then probably UM getting an at-large. I am not sure WSU and Sac are playing playoff caliber football right now, but we'll know a lot more in the next couple of weeks.

Three point road losses to Washington and Montana are really biting us in the ass right now.

if MSU was to win out that would likely mean the griz 7-3 and weber 6-5 (unless we win in missoula ).

EWURanger wrote:Right now, it's looking like 2, maybe 3. MSU is probably a lock, with UM, WSU, and Sac having a decent shot, and EWU and PSU as long-shots.

At the moment, I'm thinking MSU will get the auto-bid with a 9-2 record, and then probably UM getting an at-large. I am not sure WSU and Sac are playing playoff caliber football right now, but we'll know a lot more in the next couple of weeks.

Three point road losses to Washington and Montana are really biting us in the ass right now.

I really don't think the cats will lose to anyone besides us, and even that is pretty questionable at this point. They are a legit national title contender this year.

if Sac beats EWU they have a great shot to win out and finish 8-3. I think Sac would have to be automatic at that point with wins over ewu, griz and an FBS. i think only 2 teams will get to 8 wins.

Grizalltheway wrote:

EWURanger wrote:Right now, it's looking like 2, maybe 3. MSU is probably a lock, with UM, WSU, and Sac having a decent shot, and EWU and PSU as long-shots.

At the moment, I'm thinking MSU will get the auto-bid with a 9-2 record, and then probably UM getting an at-large. I am not sure WSU and Sac are playing playoff caliber football right now, but we'll know a lot more in the next couple of weeks.

Three point road losses to Washington and Montana are really biting us in the ass right now.

I really don't think the cats will lose to anyone besides us, and even that is pretty questionable at this point. They are a legit national title contender this year.

I don't see them winning out, but that is just me. You could be right about them being a contender this season, but until they can show they can win a game in the playoffs, I'm not completely sold.

With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

Agreed.

Although, I will say this about the ISU game: THAT was what we expected from this Griz team entering the season...a smothering, fly-to-the-ball, attacking defense and a someone questionable, hit-and-miss offense. Had THAT defense showed up against Sac State I'd feel much differently about our chances this year. Unfortunately, they're like a box of chocolates....you never know what you're gonna get.

7 D-1 wins merely makes you ELIGIBLE. Doesn't mean you're in. A 7-4 team is going to be sitting in line behind every 8-3 team from the power leagues (CAA, SoCon, BSC, MVFC).

bluehenbillk wrote:7 D-1 wins merely makes you ELIGIBLE. Doesn't mean you're in. A 7-4 team is going to be sitting in line behind every 8-3 team from the power leagues (CAA, SoCon, BSC, MVFC).

If EWU starts out 0-4 and then runs the table, I would bet my next paycheck they're an at-large selection.

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season. Give Kemp the starting job and this team will make noise in the playoffs.

EWURanger wrote:
I don't see them winning out, but that is just me. You could be right about them being a contender this season, but until they can show they can win a game in the playoffs, I'm not completely sold.

Im not sold either.. They are a balanced team but they are not National Contenders and until they can win a playoff game, they will be just another team in my book.. When was the last time Bozeman State actually won the Big SKy out right?

Grizalltheway wrote:

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season. Give Kemp the starting job and this team will make noise in the playoffs.

Agreed. But I also agree that if our OFFENSE plays like that we will struggle with Weber and won't be able to hang with MSU.

it was hard to not expect 6-5 from weber before the season started. i thought 6-5 would mean we had a very good team. tough schedule. to even get to 7-4 would mean winning at wa-griz or beat msu at home.

we have a very efficient QB after 5 games and our turnover margin is like nothing I have seen at Weber. So based on that I think we have a shot 5+ big sky wins.

Grizalltheway wrote:

GrizFanStuckInUtah wrote:With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season. Give Kemp the starting job and this team will make noise in the playoffs.

I'm certainly ready to give Kemp the nod, we need some kind of spark and/or change. I am not trying to be negative but am calling it as I see it right now. With what we are doing right now, we won't compete and win like I think we should be able to.

bluehenbillk wrote:7 D-1 wins merely makes you ELIGIBLE. Doesn't mean you're in. A 7-4 team is going to be sitting in line behind every 8-3 team from the power leagues (CAA, SoCon, BSC, MVFC).

Yes, it does depend on what happens elsewhere, but with the expanded field, five 7-4 teams from power conferences received at-large bids last year.

Sac, then EWU have the clearest paths.

grizcountry420 wrote:

EWURanger wrote:
I don't see them winning out, but that is just me. You could be right about them being a contender this season, but until they can show they can win a game in the playoffs, I'm not completely sold.

Im not sold either.. They are a balanced team but they are not National Contenders and until they can win a playoff game, they will be just another team in my book.. When was the last time Bozeman State actually won the Big SKy out right?

I hope your team takes this same attitude into Cat/griz. The Cats have yet to put a full game together, and are 5-1. This does worry me a little, but overall most of our really hard games are behind us (that's what she said) .

1 or 2...

Assuming no 6-5 teams are somehow in line for an at-large...

Im going to say Montana State & Montna will make the playoffs from the fluffy.

Sac will finish 4-1 and have a 7-4 overall record and make the playoffs as an AL team with good wins over UM, EWU, and Oregon State.

Kadeezy wrote:Sac will finish 4-1 and have a 7-4 overall record and make the playoffs as an AL team with good wins over UM, EWU, and Oregon State.

Keep blowin that Booger Sugar!

Kadeezy wrote:Sac will finish 4-1 and have a 7-4 overall record and make the playoffs as an AL team with good wins over UM, EWU, and Oregon State.

A path to four Big Sky teams in the field would be EWU running the table, Sac only losing to EWU, and Montana only losing one more and probably to the Cats. Again, not extremely likely, but that would be pretty cool.

4 seems too unlikely since we wont have 3 8 win teams. next yr with the 4 new schools we could see 4.

I can't see more than 3 teams coming from the Big Sky. MSU, UM, and either Sac, PSU, or if EWU wins out.

2 BSC make it, MSU and WSU