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So basically, it's like this. Take the teams that can finish 7-4 with 7 DI wins (who would have a realistic chance of getting in the playoffs at 7-4) and rank their playoff "resumes" that the teams would have at 7-4. Also rank where a 9-2 South Carolina State and a 7-4 Liberty team would fall.

I'm not counting WIU and Montana because I think all would agree that they are all but locks if they win this week and both have zero chance of getting in with losses.

1. North Dakota State (7-4 with a loss this week) <- because they have the FBS win
2. Richmond (7-4 with a win this week) <-played tough OOC schedule, only CAA south team among possible playoff CAA south teams that had to play Rhody, UNH, and UMass from the north
3. New Hampshire (7-4 with a win this week)
4. Villanova (7-4 with a win this week)
5. Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win this week) a <-7-4 GSU team gets in before a 7-4 Chatty because GSU has wins over two of the three top common opponents that UTC has lost to
6. UT Chattanooga (7-4 with a win this week)
7. South Carolina State (9-2 with a win this week)
8. McNeese State (7-4 with a win this week)
9. Liberty (threw in Liberty because of the FBS win)

Pwns wrote:So basically, it's like this. Take the teams that can finish 7-4 with 7 DI wins (who would have a realistic chance of getting in the playoffs at 7-4) and rank their playoff "resumes" that the teams would have at 7-4. Also rank where a 9-2 South Carolina State and a 7-4 Liberty team would fall.

I'm not counting WIU and Montana because I think all would agree that they are all but locks if they win this week and both have zero chance of getting in with losses.

1. North Dakota State (7-4 with a loss this week) <- because they have the FBS win
2. Richmond (7-4 with a win this week) <-played tough OOC schedule, only CAA south team among possible playoff CAA south teams that had to play Rhody, UNH, and UMass from the north
3. New Hampshire (7-4 with a win this week)
4. Villanova (7-4 with a win this week)
5. Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win this week) a <-7-4 GSU team gets in before a 7-4 Chatty because GSU has wins over two of the three top common opponents that UTC has lost to
6. UT Chattanooga (7-4 with a win this week)
7. South Carolina State (9-2 with a win this week)
8. McNeese State (7-4 with a win this week)
9. Liberty (threw in Liberty because of the FBS win)

Lamar don't count so McNeese isnt eligible

Pwns wrote:So basically, it's like this. Take the teams that can finish 7-4 with 7 DI wins (who would have a realistic chance of getting in the playoffs at 7-4) and rank their playoff "resumes" that the teams would have at 7-4. Also rank where a 9-2 South Carolina State and a 7-4 Liberty team would fall.

I'm not counting WIU and Montana because I think all would agree that they are all but locks if they win this week and both have zero chance of getting in with losses.

1. North Dakota State (7-4 with a loss this week) <- because they have the FBS win
2. Richmond (7-4 with a win this week) <-played tough OOC schedule, only CAA south team among possible playoff CAA south teams that had to play Rhody, UNH, and UMass from the north
3. New Hampshire (7-4 with a win this week)
4. Villanova (7-4 with a win this week)
5. Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win this week) a <-7-4 GSU team gets in before a 7-4 Chatty because GSU has wins over two of the three top common opponents that UTC has lost to
6. UT Chattanooga (7-4 with a win this week)
7. South Carolina State (9-2 with a win this week)
8. McNeese State (7-4 with a win this week)
9. Liberty (threw in Liberty because of the FBS win)

Also, just curious how you justify Richmond over UNH when UNH beat them.

UNHWildCats wrote:

Pwns wrote:So basically, it's like this. Take the teams that can finish 7-4 with 7 DI wins (who would have a realistic chance of getting in the playoffs at 7-4) and rank their playoff "resumes" that the teams would have at 7-4. Also rank where a 9-2 South Carolina State and a 7-4 Liberty team would fall.

I'm not counting WIU and Montana because I think all would agree that they are all but locks if they win this week and both have zero chance of getting in with losses.

1. North Dakota State (7-4 with a loss this week) <- because they have the FBS win
2. Richmond (7-4 with a win this week) <-played tough OOC schedule, only CAA south team among possible playoff CAA south teams that had to play Rhody, UNH, and UMass from the north
3. New Hampshire (7-4 with a win this week)
4. Villanova (7-4 with a win this week)
5. Georgia Southern (7-4 with a win this week) a <-7-4 GSU team gets in before a 7-4 Chatty because GSU has wins over two of the three top common opponents that UTC has lost to
6. UT Chattanooga (7-4 with a win this week)
7. South Carolina State (9-2 with a win this week)
8. McNeese State (7-4 with a win this week)
9. Liberty (threw in Liberty because of the FBS win)

Also, just curious how you justify Richmond over UNH when UNH beat them.

Head to head starts to mean a whole lot less when you're talking about 7-4 teams with enough losses between them, and when the head to heads get mixed up - if Richmond is 7-4, then they beat W&M, who would also be 7-4, a team that just beat UNH recently. Too many interconnected parts to just focus on one head to head game to break a multi=team tie.

Liberty can win this weekend to get to 8-3 and still not get the auto bid. An 8-3 Liberty has an outside shot. A 7-4 Liberty has Zero chance.

I think you also need to include Dayton and Jacksonville on this list.

I see Richmond, Villanova, Chattanooga and/or Georgia Southern, all losing Saturday. Wouldn't be shocked at a couple others losing as well.

I think the last spot will come down to Liberty, Dayton, Jacksonville, ODU, SC State, and teams w/o 7 D1 wins.

I'd give it a toss up between an 8-3 Liberty team and a 704 NDSU team.

Pwns wrote: 2. Richmond (7-4 with a win this week) <-played tough OOC schedule, only CAA south team among possible playoff CAA south teams that had to play Rhody, UNH, and UMass from the north

W&M played all three as well, plus Maine.

TribeFanInNC wrote:

Pwns wrote: 2. Richmond (7-4 with a win this week) <-played tough OOC schedule, only CAA south team among possible playoff CAA south teams that had to play Rhody, UNH, and UMass from the north

W&M played all three as well, plus Maine.

I want to know why W&M isn't on this list. After all, if UR goes 7-4, W&M must go 7-4.

ChoppinBroccoli wrote:

TribeFanInNC wrote:
W&M played all three as well, plus Maine.

I want to know why W&M isn't on this list. After all, if UR goes 7-4, W&M must go 7-4.

Because they're not a bubble team...they're already in.

If the defending champs beat Delaware in the last game of the year with Szczur healthy, they are a lock.

Dukie95 wrote:

ChoppinBroccoli wrote:
I want to know why W&M isn't on this list. After all, if UR goes 7-4, W&M must go 7-4.

Because they're not a bubble team...they're already in.

So finishing 7-4 by dropping 3 of your last 4 is a lock, but finishing 7-4 by winning your last 3 is a bubble team?

I'm not trying to be difficult -- I think W&M deserves a bid. I just don't understand how they're "already in."

I know they're the only team to beat UD, but there is recency bias. If your last two games are losses to 1) one of the teams you're tied with and 2) a team that every other team you're tied with defeated, it doesn't look good.

ChoppinBroccoli wrote:

Dukie95 wrote:
Because they're not a bubble team...they're already in.

So finishing 7-4 by dropping 3 of your last 4 is a lock, but finishing 7-4 by winning your last 3 is a bubble team?

I'm not trying to be difficult -- I think W&M deserves a bid. I just don't understand how they're "already in."

I know they're the only team to beat UD, but there is recency bias. If your last two games are losses to 1) one of the teams you're tied with and 2) a team that every other team you're tied with defeated, it doesn't look good.

Yea, I think W&M is in a perilous situation at 7-4, ending with losses to a (hopefully) 6-5 and 7-4 team. They should be in, but they're in a much better position if they win (obviously...who isn't)

I just put the four possible 7-4 CAA teams in a "mini-conference." Here are the standings (this, of course, assumes that UR wins):

William and Mary - 2-1 (tops by virtue of their win against UNH)
UNH - 2-1
Villanova 1-2 (third by virtue of their win against UR)
UR 1-2

What does this mean? Who knows? But if the committee performs a conference-esque tiebreaker this is how it will shake down.

mcveyrl wrote:I just put the four possible 7-4 CAA teams in a "mini-conference." Here are the standings (this, of course, assumes that UR wins):

William and Mary - 2-1 (tops by virtue of their win against UNH)
UNH - 2-1
Villanova 1-2 (third by virtue of their win against UR)
UR 1-2

What does this mean? Who knows? But if the committee performs a conference-esque tiebreaker this is how it will shake down.

There are five possible 7-4 CAA teams. If UMass wins, your standings change to:
UNH 3-1
UR 2-2 (second by virtue of their win over W&M)
W&M 2-2
Villanova 1-2
UMass 1-2

And if UMass wins and Nova loses, your 4-way tie is:
UNH 2-1 (tops by virtue of their win over UR)
UR 2-1
UMass 1-2 (third by virtue of their win over W&M)
W&M 1-2

So, adding UMass to the tiebreakers hurts the Tribe. Adding Villanova helps them. Based on their respective opponents this weekend, which team is more likely to be 7-4?

My head says W&M wins on Saturday and this is all moot. My heart is making my head do all these permutations, and my head hurts.

What a interesting situation. I hope if my Spiders can pull out a win at #6 W&M they will be in the playoffs.

ChoppinBroccoli wrote:

mcveyrl wrote:I just put the four possible 7-4 CAA teams in a "mini-conference." Here are the standings (this, of course, assumes that UR wins):

William and Mary - 2-1 (tops by virtue of their win against UNH)
UNH - 2-1
Villanova 1-2 (third by virtue of their win against UR)
UR 1-2

What does this mean? Who knows? But if the committee performs a conference-esque tiebreaker this is how it will shake down.

There are five possible 7-4 CAA teams. If UMass wins, your standings change to:
UNH 3-1
UR 2-2 (second by virtue of their win over W&M)
W&M 2-2
Villanova 1-2
UMass 1-2

And if UMass wins and Nova loses, your 4-way tie is:
UNH 2-1 (tops by virtue of their win over UR)
UR 2-1
UMass 1-2 (third by virtue of their win over W&M)
W&M 1-2

So, adding UMass to the tiebreakers hurts the Tribe. Adding Villanova helps them. Based on their respective opponents this weekend, which team is more likely to be 7-4?

My head says W&M wins on Saturday and this is all moot. My heart is making my head do all these permutations, and my head hurts.

Good catch and that definitely changes things. My head hurts too.

Just remember back to the Maine/WM situation a couple years ago guys. Recent performance did play a factor there.

Also, I doubt it comes down to this. This year, if a CAA team is eligible, they're IN.