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Several teams I had in the poll lost last Sat. and I would think that SE Missouri State, William and Mary, and Wofford probably lost their shot at a seed. But I will throw the later two in anyway.

As of now here is my projection.

#1 Delaware
#2 App State (unless they beat Florida, then that might do the trick)
#3 Jacksonville State
#4 Montana State
#5 EWU

If anyone stumbles, SFA is up next.

1 UD
2 ASU
3 EWU
4 JSU
5 CWM

It's very rare for a 3-loss team to get a seed. I know there's more parity now, but I think there will be enough teams with 2 or fewer losses that an 8-3 W&M gets a bye, not a seed.

Why is Eastern Washington almost unanimously ranked above Montana State across the polls? With identical 8-2, 6-1 records, I would think Montana State's head-to-head win against EWU would give them the nod in most people's eyes, but this doesn't seem to be the case anywhere.

Am I missing something here?

Here is how I see it. EWU's loss to MSU came early in the season. MSU's loss came in the middle, that is how the human poll works. Very few voters see these teams play, so they move teams they are unfamiliar up and back solely on scores and reading blurbs. Since EWU was close to MSU in the polls before MSU lost to NAU, EWU moved ahead of them. Pretty standard.

I would have more of a beef with Montana's ranking. They have 3 FCS losses and are only 2 spots behind MSU and similar teams who only have 1 FCS loss. Why are they where they are? Because they started in the preseason polls way way to high. That's what annoys me to no end, Montana is ranked higher than they should be because of a preseason poll?!?! Are you kidding me? My opinion is that no official polls should be done until the 3rd or 4th week of the season.

Ok back on track with the EWU MSU question. Despite the human polls, I think that the committee will give MSU a seed above EWU due to the fact they MSU would be the AQ (with a win) and would also have the head to head. I have seen the committee not put much stock in the TSN and Coaches poll many times.

Pitz wrote:Why is Eastern Washington almost unanimously ranked above Montana State across the polls? With identical 8-2, 6-1 records, I would think Montana State's head-to-head win against EWU would give them the nod in most people's eyes, but this doesn't seem to be the case anywhere.

Am I missing something here?

strength of schedule, perhaps?

JayJ79 wrote:

Pitz wrote:Why is Eastern Washington almost unanimously ranked above Montana State across the polls? With identical 8-2, 6-1 records, I would think Montana State's head-to-head win against EWU would give them the nod in most people's eyes, but this doesn't seem to be the case anywhere.

Am I missing something here?

strength of schedule, perhaps?

EWU is ahead of MSU in all of the polls, Sagarin, and the GPI. Sagarin's SOS has EWU at 116 and MSU at 147.

EWU's OOC opponents (Nevada 9-1, Southern Utah 6-5, Central Washington 8-2) are significantly better than MSU's (WSU 2-8, Drake 7-4, Ft. Lewis 3-7)

That being said, if I were a bobcat fan, the head to head win in week 4 would trump all of this...But I'm not.

It should be real interesting in who they choose to give the seed to, or who they give a higher seed to (I could see both EWU and MSU getting a seed if both win this weekend). This is the way I see it.

but, but, but...SUU lost to TXST

CatMom wrote:but, but, but...SUU lost to TXST

I'm not in the camp that Texas State is a bad loss.

Looking at that table, SE, I'm inclined to, after determining that both rate not only berths but seeds as well, consider the D-II games as a secondary item. EWU won a relatively close game against a known good D-II, while MSU blew out a lesser team. I'm not sure how that balances, and it could be the push you assert. Overall, I'd cite your chart as evidence sufficient to give EWU a higher seed than MSU.

Cue 2506's whining retort in 3...2...1...

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:It should be real interesting in who they choose to give the seed to, or who they give a higher seed to (I could see both EWU and MSU getting a seed if both win this weekend). This is the way I see it.

I still find it a little strange that people are discounting MSU's road win over Sac State because they gave up 61 points, as though the fact that they also scored 64 doesn't mean anything. How is a 64-61 win any less impressive than a 24-21 win? As it turns out, any win over Sac State this year was a pretty damn good one, even when playing at home.

Having said that, I agree that EWU does have the overall better resume at this point, and if I were assigning seeds today I'd definitely rank EWU over MSU. Of course, a lot can change this weekend as a road win over UM would make MSU's resume look a lot impressive and an EWU win over ISU is, well, not going to do much for them.

MSU01 wrote:

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:It should be real interesting in who they choose to give the seed to, or who they give a higher seed to (I could see both EWU and MSU getting a seed if both win this weekend). This is the way I see it.

I still find it a little strange that people are discounting MSU's road win over Sac State because they gave up 61 points, as though the fact that they also scored 64 doesn't mean anything. How is a 64-61 win any less impressive than a 24-21 win? As it turns out, any win over Sac State this year was a pretty damn good one, even when playing at home.

Having said that, I agree that EWU does have the overall better resume at this point, and if I were assigning seeds today I'd definitely rank EWU over MSU. Of course, a lot can change this weekend as a road win over UM would make MSU's resume look a lot impressive and an EWU win over ISU is, well, not going to do much for them.

Great chart SE, and great point on the influence of MSU's win this weekend, MSU.

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:It should be real interesting in who they choose to give the seed to, or who they give a higher seed to (I could see both EWU and MSU getting a seed if both win this weekend). This is the way I see it.

Richmond has six wins. Please post a picture of yourself eating crow.

ChoppinBroccoli wrote:

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:It should be real interesting in who they choose to give the seed to, or who they give a higher seed to (I could see both EWU and MSU getting a seed if both win this weekend). This is the way I see it.

Richmond has six wins. Please post a picture of yourself eating crow.

http://vimeo.com/2878778" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I really think it all depends on how this weekend goes down.

1. UD
2. App St.
3.MSU ...with win
4. EWU
5. JSU ...with win

or

1. UD
2. App St.
3. EWU... with MSU loss
4. JSU... with win
5. SFA

I believe the top two are set unless App St. can pull off the upset. The other three are still up for grabs.

SEMOFB2010 wrote:I really think it all depends on how this weekend goes down.

1. UD
2. App St.
3.MSU ...with win
4. EWU
5. JSU ...with win

or

1. UD
2. App St.
3. EWU... with MSU loss
4. JSU... with win
5. SFA

I believe the top two are set unless App St. can pull off the upset. The other three are still up for grabs.

That looks about right.

#1 - Delaware
#2 - App State
#3 - EWU
#4 - SFA
#5 - Jacksonville St.

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:

ChoppinBroccoli wrote:
Richmond has six wins. Please post a picture of yourself eating crow.

http://vimeo.com/2878778" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Assuming all these teams win this weekend
#1 Appy 10-1(29,499 avg attendance)
#2 Delaware 10-1(20,317)
#3 Jax State 10-1(18,432)
#4 Montana State 9-2(14,302)
#5 EWU 9-2 (7,920) or W&M 8-3 (11,047)

The most likely loss is probably ASU, but even at 9-2, they would still be a #2, maybe #3 seed.

JSU02 wrote:Assuming all these teams win this weekend
#1 Appy 10-1(29,499 avg attendance)
#2 Delaware 10-1(20,317)
#3 Jax State 10-1(18,432)
#4 Montana State 9-2(14,302)
#5 EWU 9-2 (7,920) or W&M 8-3 (11,047)

The most likely loss is probably ASU, but even at 9-2, they would still be a #2, maybe #3 seed.

Attendance shouldn't play a role in seeding.

Maybe not, but with those team with those records it would be incredibly easy for the ncaa to do it and defend it.

Sorry JSU...Jax St. will be no higher then a 4 in the seeding. Unless all hell breaks loose and everyone above them lose.

Northcoast wrote:I would have more of a beef with Montana's ranking. They have 3 FCS losses and are only 2 spots behind MSU and similar teams who only have 1 FCS loss. Why are they where they are? Because they started in the preseason polls way way to high. That's what annoys me to no end, Montana is ranked higher than they should be because of a preseason poll?!?! Are you kidding me? My opinion is that no official polls should be done until the 3rd or 4th week of the season.

Seriously? It annoys you to "no end"?

1 - Delaware
2 - App State
3 - EWU
4 - JSU
5 - SFA

If App wins they will get the #1 seed, if they lose it goes to Delaware. I think Montana will beat Montana State, thus giving them a bye - not a seed.