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Posted: **Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:19 am**

Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.

Posted: **Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:32 am**

That's a tough schedule - ASU's isn't as bad, but it certainly doesn't get easier after the WCU game this week...

10/30 Furman
11/6 @ Ga. So
11/13 Wofford
11/20 @ Florida

Posted: **Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:35 am**

93henfan wrote:Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.

At least they have one cupcake game in there down in North Cackalacky.

Posted: **Mon Oct 18, 2010 9:30 am**

ASUG8 wrote:That's a tough schedule - ASU's isn't as bad, but it certainly doesn't get easier after the WCU game this week...

10/30 Furman
11/6 @ Ga. So
11/13 Wofford
11/20 @ Florida

Yeah, that's no cakewalk either. Add in UD with W&M, UMass, and Nova still to go and it's looking like Jax St and SFA may be the 1 and 2 seeds.

Posted: **Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:25 am**

Hey, if UD ended up a #3 or #4 seed & was on Jax St's side of the bracket, I'd be happy with that.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 4:33 am**

I don't usually think this way, but based upon 93hen's original post I have assigned probabilities to the outcome of W&M's last five games as follows:

5-0 = 2.38%
4-1 = 9.52%
3-2 = 38.1%
2-3 = 38.1%
1-4 = 9.52%
0-5 = 2.38%

1). How do you think this sounds, too optimistic, too pessimistic, or about right?

2). Will 2-3 over the last 5 games get W&M in the playoffs (7-4 overall)?

3). What would it take to get a seed?

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:40 am**

bandl wrote:
93henfan wrote:Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.
At least they have one cupcake game in there down in North Cackalacky.

I'd like to amend the comment I made on the GOTW thread. Perhaps W&M getting into the playoffs is NOT a slam dunk.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:42 am**

93henfan wrote:Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.

I give you: Montana!

10/23 Northern Arizona 1:00 PM MT
10/30 @ Weber State 1:00 PM MT
11/13 North Dakota 12:00 PM MT
11/20 Montana State 12:00 PM MT

OK. Sorry. Just had to do it.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:00 am**

LeadBolt wrote:I don't usually think this way, but based upon 93hen's original post I have assigned probabilities to the outcome of W&M's last five games as follows:

5-0 = 2.38%
4-1 = 9.52%
3-2 = 38.1%
2-3 = 38.1%
1-4 = 9.52%
0-5 = 2.38%

1). How do you think this sounds, too optimistic, too pessimistic, or about right?

2). Will 2-3 over the last 5 games get W&M in the playoffs (7-4 overall)?

3). What would it take to get a seed?

In response to question 2, this is a cop out, but it obviously depends who those 3 losses are to.

I think to go 2-3, they'll probably lose to UD and UNC. So...if the loss is to another team sitting on the bubble at 7-4, I think the head to head (should) hurt them. In an odd way, I think the best 2-3 would be to lose to UD, UNC and a team that is 6-5 or worse at the end of the year. Or obviously somebody that's 8-3 or better, but that would require a tremendous run from one of those three teams...

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:14 am**

AZGrizFan wrote:
93henfan wrote:Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.
I give you: Montana!

10/23 Northern Arizona 1:00 PM MT
10/30 @ Weber State 1:00 PM MT
11/13 North Dakota 12:00 PM MT
11/20 Montana State 12:00 PM MT

OK. Sorry. Just had to do it.

Well, it is a tough schedule. NAU and Montana State are good teams, and Montana lost last time in Weber

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:24 am**

LeadBolt wrote:I don't usually think this way, but based upon 93hen's original post I have assigned probabilities to the outcome of W&M's last five games as follows:

5-0 = 2.38%
4-1 = 9.52%
3-2 = 38.1%
2-3 = 38.1%
1-4 = 9.52%
0-5 = 2.38%

1). How do you think this sounds, too optimistic, too pessimistic, or about right?

2). Will 2-3 over the last 5 games get W&M in the playoffs (7-4 overall)?

3). What would it take to get a seed?

Also, I think the probabilities are close, but there's a greater chance of you going 3-2 than 2-3, IMO.

To get a seed, based on the teams you would be competing with, I think you have to go at least 4-1. ASU is not going to lose more than once, Jax St. is not going to lose, you will probably be the team that needs to beat UD for them to lose more than one, SFA doesn't have another ranked team on their schedule. I think one loss is going to be your max for getting a seed.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:01 am**

AZGrizFan wrote:
93henfan wrote:Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.
I give you: Montana!

10/23 Northern Arizona 1:00 PM MT
10/30 @ Weber State 1:00 PM MT
11/13 North Dakota 12:00 PM MT
11/20 Montana State 12:00 PM MT

OK. Sorry. Just had to do it.

All teams west of the Mississippi...

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:01 am**

The past three years a team needed at least 10 wins to get a seed. That would require running the table.

I'm not convinced the committee won't give BCU a seed if they finish 11-0. Hampton 2005, all over again.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:22 am**

LeadBolt wrote:I don't usually think this way, but based upon 93hen's original post I have assigned probabilities to the outcome of W&M's last five games as follows:

5-0 = 2.38%
4-1 = 9.52%
3-2 = 38.1%
2-3 = 38.1%
1-4 = 9.52%
0-5 = 2.38%

1). How do you think this sounds, too optimistic, too pessimistic, or about right?

2). Will 2-3 over the last 5 games get W&M in the playoffs (7-4 overall)?

3). What would it take to get a seed?

What is the probability of picking another guy as Homecoming Queen?

OK. Seriously. Here is a link of the Tribe's probability of winning each of the remainaing games. It says that you will be underdogs in 4 of the last 5 games. That is a tough stretch but winning 3 is certainly a possibility. Who is going to QB going forward?
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8934&s=98700" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:50 am**

I predict both Richmond and WM are 6-4 going into the Rivalry game with a playoff berth on the line.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:53 am**

PenthouseClosedEnd wrote:I predict both Richmond and JMU are 6-4 going into the Rivalry game with a playoff berth on the line.

Do you mean Richmond and W&M? We play you guys in a few weeks.

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:02 am**

What is the probability of picking another guy as Homecoming Queen?

OK. Seriously. Here is a link of the Tribe's probability of winning each of the remainaing games. It says that you will be underdogs in 4 of the last 5 games. That is a tough stretch but winning 3 is certainly a possibility. Who is going to QB going forward?
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8934&s=98700" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;[/quote]

Thanks for the link. Having 3 of the 4 underdog situations at 3 points or less makes them doable, if the team continues to improve as they have and doesn't have a fall off in intensity as they have at times.

I didn't realize you were so interested in our Homecoming Queen....

Posted: **Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:03 am**

LeadBolt wrote:What is the probability of picking another guy as Homecoming Queen?

OK. Seriously. Here is a link of the Tribe's probability of winning each of the remainaing games. It says that you will be underdogs in 4 of the last 5 games. That is a tough stretch but winning 3 is certainly a possibility. Who is going to QB going forward?
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8934&s=98700" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks for the link. Having 3 of the 4 underdog situations at 3 points or less makes them doable, if the team continues to improve as they have and doesn't have a fall off in intensity as they have at times.

I didn't realize you were so interested in our Homecoming Queen....[/quote]

If JMU plays like I think they will - which is to say, poorly - at least one of those games you will not be the underdog.

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 4:58 am**

LeadBolt wrote: I didn't realize you were so interested in our Homecoming Queen....

Interested? No. Appalled. Yes.

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:21 am**

Maine had 5 straight weeks of........

at Syracuse
#4 W&M
#10 UNH
at #2 Delaware
#6 Villanova

Cry me a river............

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:14 am**

CAA Flagship wrote:
LeadBolt wrote: I didn't realize you were so interested in our Homecoming Queen....
Interested? No. Appalled. Yes.

"Me thinkst thou dost protest too much..."

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:17 am**

mainejeff wrote:Maine had 5 straight weeks of........

at Syracuse
#4 W&M
#10 UNH
at #2 Delaware
#6 Villanova

Cry me a river............

MJ - you realize that this thread was started by a Delaware fan, right? The only Tribe poster before me to post on this thread tried to do an evaluation of our chances of winning a number of games and thought that 2 to 3 is the most likely scenario. You aren't seeing the Tribe fans crying on this thread. This is playoff preparation assuming the Tribe can make it through with at least 2 wins in the last 5.

By the way, welcome to a traditional CAA South's schedule.

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:18 am**

93henfan wrote:Sat, Oct 23 Delaware 12:00 pm --
Sat, Oct 30 at North Carolina TBA --
Sat, Nov 6 at New Hampshire 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 at James Madison 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 Richmond 3:30 pm

Is there a tougher finish in FCS? Wow.

How about Weber State?

Portland State
#7 Montana
@ #15 Montana State
@ #22 Northern Arizona
@ Texas Tech

Last home game is in October. Thats a good schedule!

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:27 am**

tribe_pride wrote:
mainejeff wrote:Maine had 5 straight weeks of........

at Syracuse
#4 W&M
#10 UNH
at #2 Delaware
#6 Villanova

Cry me a river............
MJ - you realize that this thread was started by a Delaware fan, right? The only Tribe poster before me to post on this thread tried to do an evaluation of our chances of winning a number of games and thought that 2 to 3 is the most likely scenario. You aren't seeing the Tribe fans crying on this thread. This is playoff preparation assuming the Tribe can make it through with at least 2 wins in the last 5.

+1
By the way, welcome to a traditional CAA South's schedule.

Posted: **Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:41 am**

UNH, over the course of 6 weeks (bye week in there) play/played Richmond, JMU, UMass, W&M and 'Nova. Not quite as tough.

I think the interesting game for W&M is really the UNH game. If W&M is suddenly 5-3 entering that game it could be a huge one.

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