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Following a 45-0 defeat at the hands of Idaho I think UND has only the slightest glimmer of hope in this one. My analysis tells me this will be another rout. That means the margin of victory is greater than 21 points and betting is closed. Lets look at the stats.

Overview:

The NIU Huskies didn’t do well against Iowa State last week. NDSU played the Cyclones better last season. Some things did become clear. The analysis has to focus on the main coefficient of comparison: UND is not Iowa State. Whatever The Huskies did against Iowa State they will do better against UND. There is no coefficient for UND. Expect this week what you got last week.

OUTLOOK:

Passing:

Northern Illinois really got burned last week. Iowa state had about 260 yds passing. UND will get every bit of their expected 130 yds or so.

On the other hand UND really got burned by a good Idaho QB for about 400 yds. The Huskies are having a QB controversy and have named a new starter for this game. Give them 250 yds and 2 scores.

NIU + 14

Rushing:

This is kind of a strong point for the Northern Illinois defense. They were stingy last week. UND will be lucky to repeat last weeks performance against this defense. One bright spot might be the new QB. Look for some new stuff, some option maybe, some roll outs and plain-old QB keepers. Being realistic this wont have much effect on the efficiency of the UND offense.

NIU on the other hand did well last week. Against Iowa State they had 156 yds and a TD. Not bad. Expect all of that against UND.

+17

Key:

Third down conversions. I expect to see the Huskies do well on third down. They have good potential on the ground and in the air. They only had 3 last week but had 17 total. They got 14 first downs on first and second down. This means big play threat.

Unfortunately the Huskies gave up a lot of third down conversions to the Cyclones. This is an area where UND might have a chance to extend drives and put up some points. They don't have any yet. If UND can get something going, preferably on the ground, they could stay in it. If they dont it could be a long year.

Conclusion:

Northern Illinois +31 betting closed

Over/under: 42

I would imagine the UND fans are looking forward, wouldnt you ( )?

Its also an FBS matchup with a chance for the FCS upset. Its hard to say how solid the Huskies really are. Certainly they are no better than NDSU and maybe not as good as Idaho.

should I start referring to the Bison's school as UNDS?

I'm sure the north dakota fans care deeply about your obsessive analysis about how badly they are going to lose, JBB.

JayJ79 wrote:should I start referring to the Bison's school as UNDS?

You'll start a Civil War...wait...go right ahead.

JBB wrote:Its also an FBS matchup with a chance for the FCS upset. Its hard to say how solid the Huskies really are. Certainly they are no better than NDSU and maybe not as good as Idaho.

Don't lie. It's unbecoming.

Willie wrote:

JayJ79 wrote:should I start referring to the Bison's school as UNDS?

You'll start a Civil War...wait...go right ahead.

wouldn't be me starting it, as I would just be returning fire at that yokel who keeps referring to Northern Iowa as "NIU" and to Northern Illinois as UNI.

Sorry about the mixup. I should have caught that error.

UNI = University of Northern Iowa

NIU = Northern Illinois University.

Could be a very long day, and a longer night for fans of one of those teams.

Could be a routine opening of another tomato can for the other.

DJH wrote:I'm sure the north dakota fans care deeply about your obsessive analysis about how badly they are going to lose, JBB.

Here are the types of comments you are seeing on the UND board in the NIU prediction threads:

darell1976:
My heart UND 31 NIU 28
My head NIU 35 UND 21 I hope my heart is right!! Lets show the country the Bison aren't the only ND team that can beat a FBS team.

VMeister:
Only head:

NIU 31 UND 13

BigGame:
I hope I am wrong but after last week I doubt it.

NIU - 37
UND - 13

NSFD: I have to go with 35 - 10 - NIU

fgosioux:

Ole, I agree with what your saying. Most on here don't want to admit that so far we have had a very poor transition in all sports. Especially a guy with 'HOMER" as his name. Recruiting in B.Ball and football is almost impossible compared to who we are going against.

What can we sell to the players that NDSU and SDSU or UNI doesn't have in spades. Absolutely nothing!! That's just reality. So we are left with leftovers and recruiting in places far from home.

We thought it's bad now. Try recruiting when everyone knows Poly and Davis are gone and we have no one else to play.

Homer, I commend your optimism however misguided it might be.

Ole in Mnpls:

Face it, there are more DI schools looking at the same kids in the region than 10 or even 5 years ago. It is going to be tougher and tougher to get quality players with their heads screwed on straight to move to any school that does not have a chance for some national attention. The Bison wins over FBS programs echo very loudly when you compare them to other regional FCS schools. It will be very interesting to see how USD does this Saturday against the Gophers and how UND does against NIU. If they aren't competetive then not a lot of progress has been made in keeping up. A conference helps out the schedule, but you still have to get the talent in the door. Not sure the answer on that is going to be known for some time.

I think Im in the majority with my call but there are others out there with a different opinion. You nay-sayers that think there is no upset chance had better consider this:

GeauxSioux:
I'll predict with my heart and not my head...

Sioux 21
NIU 17

Oh yea, Im not the only one having problems with school initials. Ticketmaster had this game as NDSU @ NIU! Its fixed now.

Nebraska leads Idaho 24-0 in the second qtr. This is a bad sign for UND. Idaho beat them 45-0 last week and Idaho is looking like a paper tiger giving up TDs to the Nebraska offense and defense. NIU may have a field day?

UND kicks off without incident and NIU takes over on the UND 20. First play from scrimmage is an 80 yd TD run!!

7-0 NIU,

Lots of football left. The NIU drive took 21 seconds.

NIU Scores after a nice 4 minute, 70 yd drive. 13-0. NIU missed the extra point. There are just under 6 minutes left. UND held at the goal line for 3rd and goal but NIU scored on a pass play.

Nice drive by UND. Near the end of the 1st qtr there is a review underway on what was called a UND rushing TD on third and goal. If this doesnt count its 4 th and half yard.

On 4th and goal Josh Murry is rejected. Its turned over on downs after an exciting goal line stand by NIU. Well off to the BISON game.

http://www.channelsurfing.net/watch-nca ... s.php?w=18" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NIU is running circles (literally) around the UND defense. I won't be watching this one long.

UND looks a little bewildered right now. UND fans are not happy with the coach or the QB. They say the coach, Chris Mussman, is holding his head down with discouragement and shame.

Great defensive play by UND. The intercept a pass and return it for 80 yds or so for a TD. First good news of the season for them. Its now 16-7 NIU. Thats the half time score.

UND has scored another defensive TD on an INT return. Impressive. Now 16-13.

I had the score wrong. Right now, early in the 4th, its 23-14 NIU.

UND is looking better than last week. NIU is a good game for the FCS.

Oh No!!! UND fumbles a punt return. NIU on offense with good field position.

I guess to finish this one off, UND had a chance to win but threw an INT on the last play of the game near the goal line to lose 23-17. A good effort, especially in the second half, but still pretty disappointed in the defense and offense overall.

Not finished yet. Shades of Texas Tech, the first big moral victory of UNDs division 1 transition. Now we have a second!

UND fans think they won!

Here is the talk from Grand Forks:

UNDVince97-01:
HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE moral victories, but I agree. While this team still has a lot of question marks, it is still a very young team that showed a lot of improvement and more importantly, character. We could/should have won this game.

Wilber:
Moral victories suck, but at the same point in time, the Sioux represented their university a helluva lot better last night. Lets hope they can win the home opener next weekend

I saw the game. It was poorly played and kept close by a couple of defensive plays that were the absolute highlights for UND. Maybe the best plays of the season for them? The final drive was typical of the UND offense all night: ineffective.

I think they roll into the D2 part of their schedule next so get ready for the crazy excitement that will accompany those "big" wins.

UND played it closer than I thought they would, but on the other hand NIU is not a very good football team. Certainly no Central Michigan or Temple type of team. In a game like that the scholarship difference doesn't mean a thing. NIU type teams get a certain type of athlete but rarely field the caliber of player you will see filling the roster at teams like Kansas or even Iowa State.

Against teams like NIU lower level or bottom feeding FCS teams, especially with the help of a couple amazing miracle plays, can look respectable. This was a cookie cutter loss. The tomato can was opened routinely but not in the spectacular fashion I though it might be.

I watched this game on an internet video feed without sound.

There were two spectacular, if not improbable plays, by UND last night. The first was an INT returned for about 80 yds for a TD. I thought the second UND TD was an interception as well, but the excitement of the NDSU broadcast had diverted my attention.

The second play was an 85 yard TD pass!

In the end UND gave up 364 yds rushing and and 510 yds overall but were able to keep the score closer than the game at 23-17.