Playoffs: Where we stand (11/7)
Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:31 am
The likeliest playoff contenders of the moment and expected number of bids by conference:
Big Sky: One bid — Montana
CAA: Four bids — (North) UNH; (South) UR, 'Nova AND W&M
MEAC: One bid — SC St.
MVC: Three bids — SIU AND SD St.AND UNI
OVC: One bid — EIU
Patriot: One bid — Holy Cross OR Lafayette
SoCon: Two bids — Elon AND ASU
SLC: Two bids — SFA AND McNeese
The all-but-locked-up bids at this moment — this list accounts for still-murky single-bid conference championship races, auto-bid front-runners with decent at-large resumes in case of slight disasters, likely at-large teams with softer remaining schedules, and teams that virtually cannot play themselves out of the postseason:
Montana
UNH
UR
'Nova
W&M
SC St.
SIU
SD St.
EIU
Holy Cross OR Lafayette
Elon
SFA
So after this week's complete lack of movement, there are still three teams with a realistic shot at four available at-large playoff spots: UNI, ASU, and McNeese. This week's news and teams of note:
Big Sky: One bid — Montana
CAA: Four bids — (North) UNH; (South) UR, 'Nova AND W&M
MEAC: One bid — SC St.
MVC: Three bids — SIU AND SD St.AND UNI
OVC: One bid — EIU
Patriot: One bid — Holy Cross OR Lafayette
SoCon: Two bids — Elon AND ASU
SLC: Two bids — SFA AND McNeese
The all-but-locked-up bids at this moment — this list accounts for still-murky single-bid conference championship races, auto-bid front-runners with decent at-large resumes in case of slight disasters, likely at-large teams with softer remaining schedules, and teams that virtually cannot play themselves out of the postseason:
Montana
UNH
UR
'Nova
W&M
SC St.
SIU
SD St.
EIU
Holy Cross OR Lafayette
Elon
SFA
So after this week's complete lack of movement, there are still three teams with a realistic shot at four available at-large playoff spots: UNI, ASU, and McNeese. This week's news and teams of note:
- Absolutely nothing changed this week, unless you had money on the fledgling candidacies of Hofstra and Youngstown. There's still a short list of teams mathematically alive for at-large consideration stuck in holding pattern, and one team (SE La.) that isn't but could still win their conference championship if they can somehow hit their straight-up bet on the Great Southland Conference Playoff Roulette Wheel.
- The three likeliest of the at-large teams took care of business today in solid if unspectacular fashion. App jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, El Matador and his offense took a siesta for two quarters, then put up a pair of scores in the fourth for the winning margin. UNI ground up Youngstown in the first half and coasted from there. McNeese traded buckets with Sam Houston - Huntsville and won by three touchdowns. ASU and McNeese should be safe even if they split their final two games, and UNI probably needs to win out just to stay on the safe side.
- By my reckoning, the teams that are still alive for the final at-large, and in no particular order: EWU, NAU, Weber, Montana St., Liberty, UMass, Delaware, Illinois St., Missouri St., and Texas St. (¡SAN MARCOS!) Again, all these teams have to win out to become eligible, and in Liberty's case, to even be considered. If I have to put on my magical prognosticatin' hat and stick my dick out for any of these teams, I'll take UMass, but I won't like it. They have a really good win stirred in with their inconsistent play, and I'm just not convinced any of the Big Sky chasers can run the end-of-season gauntlet unscathed.
- There are four teams tied atop the Southland at 4-1. Although they've looked mighty vulnerable the past couple weeks, SFA is still the front-runner by virtue of their head-to-head win over McNeese. It would take a falling-down-the-stairs finish to keep them out of at least an at-large, which doesn't seem likely considering they finish with winless Northwestern St.
- The Liberty test case is at least curious if not totally compelling, but despite some deranged speculation from the fringe the final bid will not go to an at-large from the Patriot or MEAC. It's entirely possible we might end up scraping the barrel for the final spot, but let's not carried away here, folks.
