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Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:04 pm
by FCS Update
http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... ctions-112

Trying to get a little more in depth than I have in the past.

These are predictions of what I think would happened if the playoffs were drawn today, like bracketology in basketball. This is not a prognostication of what I think will happen in the coming weeks.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:35 pm
by Mvemjsunpx
Seems pretty reasonable.

I don't think Delaware will be there at the end, though, since they have to play road games against Navy & Nova. That will create an even bigger mess than last year for the final spot with a slew of likely contenders: Weber, EWU, Colgate/Lafayette/Holy Cross (whoever finishes 2nd. in the PL), FAMU, Liberty, UMass, CCSU.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:42 pm
by JayJ79
Good to see our traditional match against UNH on there again. :lol:

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:52 pm
by Ursus A. Horribilis
Looks pretty good Rob. As tough as the BSC is this year I can't imagine us not getting two but right now the 2nd team ain't making themselves very noticeable. Nice work.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:54 pm
by Screamin_Eagle174
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:Looks pretty good Rob. As tough as the BSC is this year I can't imagine us not getting two but right now the 2nd team ain't making themselves very noticeable. Nice work.
47-10.


We're right here!!! :thumb:

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:58 pm
by Screamin_Eagle174
I don't see how you can have Delaware in there. They'd have to win out, which means beating a Navy squad that should've beaten Ohio State earlier this year. If I remember right, they had to fumble near the goal line and have OSU recover and run it back for a TD to lose that one. :ohno:

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:46 am
by Mvemjsunpx
Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:I don't see how you can have Delaware in there. They'd have to win out, which means beating a Navy squad that should've beaten Ohio State earlier this year. If I remember right, they had to fumble near the goal line and have OSU recover and run it back for a TD to lose that one. :ohno:
It's unlikely, but far from impossible. Delaware beat bowl-bound Navy teams in '03 and '07. This Delaware team isn't quite as good as the other two, though.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 5:30 am
by yorkcountyUNHfan
You've got UNH at 2nd in the CAA. I figure that would put them at 10-1 with wins over Villanova and WM.
I'm not saying I'm predicting that, but that looks the the way you've got it.

2 questions....A 10-1 UNH is not a seed?

You really think UNH @ 10-1 would be rewarded with a trip to UNI?

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:19 am
by houndawg
yorkcountyUNHfan wrote:You've got UNH at 2nd in the CAA. I figure that would put them at 10-1 with wins over Villanova and WM.
I'm not saying I'm predicting that, but that looks the the way you've got it.

2 questions....A 10-1 UNH is not a seed?

You really think UNH @ 10-1 would be rewarded with a trip to UNI?
Or that UNI will get an at-large with their not-so-impressive resume?

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:29 am
by WrenFGun
I'll be honest, if App State gets to 9-2, I think they'll get the seed over UNH despite the fact that UNH would have a significantly better resume (including 3 wins better than Elon).

Do you think the committee cares about sending a 10-1 team to UNI, again? Unless UNH gets a seed they're going to a Southland/MVFC/BSC team, in all likelihood.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:51 am
by houndawg
WrenFGun wrote:I'll be honest, if App State gets to 9-2, I think they'll get the seed over UNH despite the fact that UNH would have a significantly better resume (including 3 wins better than Elon).

Do you think the committee cares about sending a 10-1 team to UNI, again? Unless UNH gets a seed they're going to a Southland/MVFC/BSC team, in all likelihood.
They'll go with the venue every time. :nod: In '03 SIU was 10-1 or 10-2 and got sent to UD.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:59 am
by Col Hogan
Not bad, at all...

I'm not that convinced the CAA will get that 5th slot this season...we've been doing a pretty good job of beating up on each other...

Question is...if the CAA doesn't get the 5th slot, where does that dance card go?????

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:11 am
by clenz
yorkcountyUNHfan wrote:You've got UNH at 2nd in the CAA. I figure that would put them at 10-1 with wins over Villanova and WM.
I'm not saying I'm predicting that, but that looks the the way you've got it.

2 questions....A 10-1 UNH is not a seed?

You really think UNH @ 10-1 would be rewarded with a trip to UNI?
UNI would put a better offer to host out there than UNH. UNI could pull between 12-15K for that game, UNH would be 9K at most.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:28 am
by FCS Update
Mvemjsunpx wrote:Seems pretty reasonable.

I don't think Delaware will be there at the end, though, since they have to play road games against Navy & Nova. That will create an even bigger mess than last year for the final spot with a slew of likely contenders: Weber, EWU, Colgate/Lafayette/Holy Cross (whoever finishes 2nd. in the PL), FAMU, Liberty, UMass, CCSU.
I agree. This is as of today.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:30 am
by FCS Update
JayJ79 wrote:Good to see our traditional match against UNH on there again. :lol:
Yeah, that's the way the bracket fell. Why not make it 4 times in 5 years. ;)

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:31 am
by FCS Update
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:Looks pretty good Rob. As tough as the BSC is this year I can't imagine us not getting two but right now the 2nd team ain't making themselves very noticeable. Nice work.
The BSC is tough. Montana dominates and the next 3 are up and down.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:39 am
by ToTheLeft
Yeah, if you're doing this as of right now, rather than predicting to the end of the year, it's tough to put anyone from the BSC in. There are three teams that, IF they win out, WILL be squarely in the discussion, however, no one right now seems to be worthy.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:42 am
by FCS Update
yorkcountyUNHfan wrote:You've got UNH at 2nd in the CAA. I figure that would put them at 10-1 with wins over Villanova and WM.
I'm not saying I'm predicting that, but that looks the the way you've got it.

2 questions....A 10-1 UNH is not a seed?

You really think UNH @ 10-1 would be rewarded with a trip to UNI?
In the end, UNH may get a seed. Richmond still plays Nova and W&M and UNH plays W&M. If UNH gets to 10-1 they would most likely earn a seed.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:46 am
by FCS Update
Col Hogan wrote:Not bad, at all...

I'm not that convinced the CAA will get that 5th slot this season...we've been doing a pretty good job of beating up on each other...

Question is...if the CAA doesn't get the 5th slot, where does that dance card go?????
I actually removed Delaware, but after running through the other teams, put them back in.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:50 am
by FCS Update
ToTheLeft wrote:Yeah, if you're doing this as of right now, rather than predicting to the end of the year, it's tough to put anyone from the BSC in. There are three teams that, IF they win out, WILL be squarely in the discussion, however, no one right now seems to be worthy.
Maybe EWU. I basically had to pick two between Delaware, UNI, and EWU.

The NCAA likes names and $ so I went with UD and UNI.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:53 am
by yorkcountyUNHfan
clenz wrote:
yorkcountyUNHfan wrote:You've got UNH at 2nd in the CAA. I figure that would put them at 10-1 with wins over Villanova and WM.
I'm not saying I'm predicting that, but that looks the the way you've got it.

2 questions....A 10-1 UNH is not a seed?

You really think UNH @ 10-1 would be rewarded with a trip to UNI?
UNI would put a better offer to host out there than UNH. UNI could pull between 12-15K for that game, UNH would be 9K at most.
I completely understand that a UNI UNH match up would be at UNI unless UNH was a seed.
I've lived it...it sucked...both times... :cry:

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:58 am
by FCS Update
yorkcountyUNHfan wrote:
clenz wrote: UNI would put a better offer to host out there than UNH. UNI could pull between 12-15K for that game, UNH would be 9K at most.
I completely understand that a UNI UNH match up would be at UNI unless UNH was a seed.
I've lived it...it sucked...both times... :cry:
Wasn't last year pretty fun outside of the game? :)

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:34 pm
by JayJ79
clenz wrote:UNI would put a better offer to host out there than UNH. UNI could pull between 12-15K for that game, UNH would be 9K at most.
I don't think UNI would bid based on 12-15K, especially with the current financial situation.
Their attendance for the previous 4 first round home games have been thus:
2008 vs. Maine: 8477
2007 vs UNH: 16015
2005 vs EWU: 7746
2003 vs Montana St: 10165

So given that, and the financial situation, they'd probably base their bid closer to 8-9K.
But that's just speculation on my part, I really don't know the specifics of how they bid.

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:01 pm
by yorkcountyUNHfan
FCS Update wrote:
yorkcountyUNHfan wrote:
I completely understand that a UNI UNH match up would be at UNI unless UNH was a seed.
I've lived it...it sucked...both times... :cry:
Wasn't last year pretty fun outside of the game? :)
Mulligans :thumb:

Re: Playoff predictions 11/2

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:20 pm
by Screamin_Eagle174
FCS Update wrote:
ToTheLeft wrote:Yeah, if you're doing this as of right now, rather than predicting to the end of the year, it's tough to put anyone from the BSC in. There are three teams that, IF they win out, WILL be squarely in the discussion, however, no one right now seems to be worthy.
Maybe EWU. I basically had to pick two between Delaware, UNI, and EWU.

The NCAA likes names and $ so I went with UD and UNI.
EWU's remaining two are more likely than Delawares. I can't wait until we settle it on the field and prove all the doubters wrong. :nod: