Sun Belt 2022 thread

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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

Baldy wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:09 pm If you're trying to say that Appy, Coastal, Marshall, UL-L, etc. aren't of the same caliber, then I'm not sure you've been paying attention.
You said they were equal or better to NDSU. I do not think that is accurate, at least at this point in time. NDSU > 90% of the SunBelt. The SB opponents will be better than CAA opponents, but that's not what you said.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:11 pm
UNI88 wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:03 pm Any answers to my question about recruiting value of playing in Hampton Roads vs. Harrisonburg/Shenandoah Valley?
I don't know VA HS football well enough, but I know HR is considered a hotbed and Hburg and Shenandoah are so spread out, there's a HS every 20+ miles. Sheer numbers would suggest HR is 5x more important for recruiting. $0.02
It comes down to NOVA. If you s t r e t c h it out, you could claim NOVA to be in the JMU area. That's a good recruiting area. But that's a stretch. It's more value for JMU than it is for an opponent. The idea is to have recruits drop by at some point during your stay. Maybe that is on Friday or maybe that is during game day. Depends on the recruits schedule too. But that is a bit of a hike. 1-2 hour drive not counting traffic. There are at least 60 high schools within a 45 minute drive of the ODU campus.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Baldy »

89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:14 pm
Baldy wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:09 pm If you're trying to say that Appy, Coastal, Marshall, UL-L, etc. aren't of the same caliber, then I'm not sure you've been paying attention.
You said they were equal or better to NDSU. I do not think that is accurate, at least at this point in time. NDSU > 90% of the SunBelt. The SB opponents will be better than CAA opponents, but that's not what you said.
That's pretty much exactly what I said.
You'll be playing NDSU caliber and better teams most every week.
I wasn't only talking about SBC teams. Their OOC schedule will become much tougher and against teams much better than NDSU or SBC or CAA or FCS teams.
EDIT:
In my opinion, Coastal, Appy, UL-L, Marshall, and other SBC teams (depending on the year) are just as good or better than NDSU.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

Baldy wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:35 pm EDIT:
In my opinion, Coastal, Appy, UL-L, Marshall, and other SBC teams (depending on the year) are just as good or better than NDSU.
That's where we differ. One or two of the ones you mentioned are maybe on par any given year, but that's it. NDSU would most likely beat 9 out of 10 SB teams right now. The problem is, once teams move up, they don't always maintain or improve. You know that first hand. Do you think GSU is better today than 2010-2013?
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

UNI88 wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:03 pm
89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:35 am Some interesting things OOC. Am I to understand that UNC is @ AppSt and @ GeorgiaSt back to back to open the season? Their fans must be thrilled. I guess Army is hoping to win the SunBelt this year. The SB West can't get anyone to come to them.

APP STATE
9/3 UNC
10/1 The Citadel
10/29 Robert Morris

COASTAL CAROLINA
9/3 Army
9/10 Gardner-Webb
9/17 Buffalo

GEORGIA SOUTHERN
9/3 Morgan State
9/24 Ball State

GEORGIA STATE
9/10 UNC
9/17 Charlotte

JAMES MADISON
9/3 Middle Tennessee
9/10 Norfolk State

MARSHALL
9/3 Norfolk State
10/1 Gardner-Webb

OLD DOMINION
9/2 Virginia Tech
10/1 Liberty

ARKANSAS STATE
9/3 Grambling State
11/12 UMass

LOUISIANA
9/3 Southeastern Louisiana
9/10 Eastern Michigan

ULM
9/10 Nicholls State

SOUTH ALABAMA
9/3 Nicholls State
9/24 Louisiana Tech

SOUTHERN MISS
9/3 Liberty
9/17 Northwestern State

TEXAS STATE
9/9 FIU
9/24 Houston Baptist

TROY
9/10 Alabama A&M
11/12 Army
I could see why UNC might play Ga State for additional exposure to Atlanta recruits. It would be similar to Iowa playing an away game vs. Northern Illinois at Soldier Field for exposure in Chicago. I don't think Iowa would ever play 2 G5's away from home in the same year. UNC is a state flagship whose focus is basketball and Iowa is a state flagship whose focus is football and UNC hasn't been nearly as successful in football. While Iowa compares to UNC better than Wake it still isn't a strong comparison.

Any answers to my question about recruiting value of playing in Hampton Roads vs. Harrisonburg/Shenandoah Valley?
Shenadoah Valley isn’t a recruiting hotbed at all. The Tidewater area of VA is a HUGE one, and probably signs 20x-30x the amount of recruits. If you were to rank nationally the top sub 2 million metro areas for # of Div I recruits each year, Tidewater would have to rank near the top, probably along with some places in FL & other parts of the South.

Looking at the markets for the SBC east teams & stadium size
GST: 6 million metro/7 million CSA/25k
ODU: 1.8 million metro/23k
CCU: 600k metro/21k
Marshall: 370k metro/38k (41k+ record)
JMU <140k metro/25k
GSU: 70k> metro/25k
ASU: <60k micropolitan/30k (SRO ECU last season 36,752).
Last edited by BDKJMU on Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

BDKJMU wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:50 pm CCU: 500k metro/21k
Are you siting numbers during tourist season? :|
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:52 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:50 pm CCU: 500k metro/21k
Are you siting numbers during tourist season? :|
Citing. ;)
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:52 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:50 pm CCU: 500k metro/21k
Are you siting numbers during tourist season? :|
I edited it to 600k. 2019 estimate of 570k about a 70% increase from 2010 of 354k.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrtle_ ... litan_area

Redneck Riviera Atlantic coast is a popular, and less expensive substitute for much of FL. Have an aunt and uncle who bought down there and retirring from the Roanoke area of southwedt VA..
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Baldy »

89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:13 pm
Baldy wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:35 pm EDIT:
In my opinion, Coastal, Appy, UL-L, Marshall, and other SBC teams (depending on the year) are just as good or better than NDSU.
That's where we differ. One or two of the ones you mentioned are maybe on par any given year, but that's it. NDSU would most likely beat 9 out of 10 SB teams right now. The problem is, once teams move up, they don't always maintain or improve. You know that first hand. Do you think GSU is better today than 2010-2013?
I doubt that very seriously. They would be very competitive no doubt and challenge for the conference title, but beating 9 out of the 10 teams is possible but very unlikely.

As a program there is no doubt we are light years ahead of 2010-2013. The on field performance over the last five years has been less than desirable though. That was horrible administration/coaching related decisions. Hopefully all that is behind us.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:13 pm
Baldy wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:35 pm EDIT:
In my opinion, Coastal, Appy, UL-L, Marshall, and other SBC teams (depending on the year) are just as good or better than NDSU.
That's where we differ. One or two of the ones you mentioned are maybe on par any given year, but that's it. NDSU would most likely beat 9 out of 10 SB teams right now. The problem is, once teams move up, they don't always maintain or improve. You know that first hand. Do you think GSU is better today than 2010-2013?
It's certainly possible that you are correct re: NDSU, but I wouldn't be as adamant as you are. There is just no real way to know with such certainty. In basketball, a team that employs a full court press isn't always effective early in a game. Much of their success comes after they wear a team down that is not used to that kind of pace. And sometimes the press is not effective at all, but over the course of a season, they often find more success than failure. The same could be said for playing against teams with better overall talent (compared to the average FCS team) over the course of the season.
Do you believe Cincinnati would have been in the playoffs if that team played in any of the P5 conferences last year?
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

CAA Flagship wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:01 am Do you believe Cincinnati would have been in the playoffs if that team played in any of the P5 conferences last year?
ACC and Pac10, for sure I'd believe that. B10 and BXII... very possible. SEC... take ANY team in the country and put them in the SEC and chances are they don't make the playoffs. Alabama has been the outlier. Georgia, Auburn, LSU... all struggle to make it out of there.

Of course this is all speculation about how NDSU would do playing a full SB schedule, but considering all we have is speculation... build a case that they wouldn't be at the very top of the SB the last 10 years. One year of computer ratings doesn't really paint a picture, but 10 years of it. I think the numbers are on my side on this one.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

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BDKJMU wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:29 pm
89Hen wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:52 pm

Are you siting numbers during tourist season? :|
I edited it to 600k. 2019 estimate of 570k about a 70% increase from 2010 of 354k.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrtle_ ... litan_area

Redneck Riviera Atlantic coast is a popular, and less expensive substitute for much of FL. Have an aunt and uncle who bought down there and retirring from the Roanoke area of southwedt VA..
It's just funny to see the MB area referred to as "metro". There's nothing metro about it. And that 500-600k includes Brunswick County, NC which includes Wilmington, not a hotbed for CCU and SunBelt football. You're correct that there are a LOT of retirees there, so that's why it's not a normal "metro" IMO.

Myrtle Beach 34,695
Conway 25,956
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Ibanez »

89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:05 am
BDKJMU wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 5:29 pm
I edited it to 600k. 2019 estimate of 570k about a 70% increase from 2010 of 354k.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myrtle_ ... litan_area

Redneck Riviera Atlantic coast is a popular, and less expensive substitute for much of FL. Have an aunt and uncle who bought down there and retirring from the Roanoke area of southwedt VA..
It's just funny to see the MB area referred to as "metro". There's nothing metro about it. And that 500-600k includes Brunswick County, NC which includes Wilmington, not a hotbed for CCU and SunBelt football. You're correct that there are a LOT of retirees there, so that's why it's not a normal "metro" IMO.

Myrtle Beach 34,695
Conway 25,956
There's a high population density that makes it "metro". I don't understand why Brunswick Cnty is there - you've got the most rural part of that county included? :suspicious: And they stop at Leland, over an hour away from MB. Why not go another 20 miles and include Wilmington?
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

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89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:58 am
CAA Flagship wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:01 am Do you believe Cincinnati would have been in the playoffs if that team played in any of the P5 conferences last year?
ACC and Pac10, for sure I'd believe that. B10 and BXII... very possible. SEC... take ANY team in the country and put them in the SEC and chances are they don't make the playoffs. Alabama has been the outlier. Georgia, Auburn, LSU... all struggle to make it out of there.

Of course this is all speculation about how NDSU would do playing a full SB schedule, but considering all we have is speculation... build a case that they wouldn't be at the very top of the SB the last 10 years. One year of computer ratings doesn't really paint a picture, but 10 years of it. I think the numbers are on my side on this one.
Computer ratings? While there is a little bit of overlap in scheduling between FCS and FBS, it's hard for me to believe computer ratings because of how little the overlap is. I don't want to take anything away from what NDSU has done over the last decade, but it's very different between P5, G5, and FCS. And by that I mean playing a whole season, not just one game. It's the grind of an entire season that makes the difference. I'm not saying that any of the NDSU teams couldn't be competitive, but I just don't think they would be consistently "at the very top" of the SB.

But the SB has gone through several years where teams have transitioned which has hurt their overall rating. GAST, GSU, APPY, and CCU went through roster turnovers that took time. Same with Charlotte, WKU, UTSA, and ODU in CUSA. Many of those teams had some decent success in FCS but took a hit in the first few years of the transition. Several teams, GSU and ODU among others, then hit a soft patch with coaching and recruiting and fell on hard times quickly. Sure, NDSU could have taken advantage of all of that during those times. But that's not necessarily enough to get them to the top.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

CAA Flagship wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:22 am
89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:58 am

ACC and Pac10, for sure I'd believe that. B10 and BXII... very possible. SEC... take ANY team in the country and put them in the SEC and chances are they don't make the playoffs. Alabama has been the outlier. Georgia, Auburn, LSU... all struggle to make it out of there.

Of course this is all speculation about how NDSU would do playing a full SB schedule, but considering all we have is speculation... build a case that they wouldn't be at the very top of the SB the last 10 years. One year of computer ratings doesn't really paint a picture, but 10 years of it. I think the numbers are on my side on this one.
Computer ratings? While there is a little bit of overlap in scheduling between FCS and FBS, it's hard for me to believe computer ratings because of how little the overlap is. I don't want to take anything away from what NDSU has done over the last decade, but it's very different between P5, G5, and FCS. And by that I mean playing a whole season, not just one game. It's the grind of an entire season that makes the difference. I'm not saying that any of the NDSU teams couldn't be competitive, but I just don't think they would be consistently "at the very top" of the SB.

But the SB has gone through several years where teams have transitioned which has hurt their overall rating. GAST, GSU, APPY, and CCU went through roster turnovers that took time. Same with Charlotte, WKU, UTSA, and ODU in CUSA. Many of those teams had some decent success in FCS but took a hit in the first few years of the transition. Several teams, GSU and ODU among others, then hit a soft patch with coaching and recruiting and fell on hard times quickly. Sure, NDSU could have taken advantage of all of that during those times. But that's not necessarily enough to get them to the top.
We both have opinions on this, but you've still yet to sell me on NDSU not being at the very top of the SB in any way. Playing bottom feeding SB teams isn't much of a grind, is it?
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:36 am
CAA Flagship wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:22 am
Computer ratings? While there is a little bit of overlap in scheduling between FCS and FBS, it's hard for me to believe computer ratings because of how little the overlap is. I don't want to take anything away from what NDSU has done over the last decade, but it's very different between P5, G5, and FCS. And by that I mean playing a whole season, not just one game. It's the grind of an entire season that makes the difference. I'm not saying that any of the NDSU teams couldn't be competitive, but I just don't think they would be consistently "at the very top" of the SB.

But the SB has gone through several years where teams have transitioned which has hurt their overall rating. GAST, GSU, APPY, and CCU went through roster turnovers that took time. Same with Charlotte, WKU, UTSA, and ODU in CUSA. Many of those teams had some decent success in FCS but took a hit in the first few years of the transition. Several teams, GSU and ODU among others, then hit a soft patch with coaching and recruiting and fell on hard times quickly. Sure, NDSU could have taken advantage of all of that during those times. But that's not necessarily enough to get them to the top.
We both have opinions on this, but you've still yet to sell me on NDSU not being at the very top of the SB in any way. Playing bottom feeding SB teams isn't much of a grind, is it?
It's a bigger grind than the bottom of MVFC.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

Ibanez wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:12 am There's a high population density that makes it "metro".
Not really. MB has a population density of 1,291 people per square mile (31,783 total pop). For comparison, Potomac, MD (my hood) has a population density of 1,827 (45,824 total pop) and I'd laugh my ass off if anyone called us a "metro". We're the sleepy suburbs. This is literally 'downtown' Potomac... a small strip center.

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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

BTW, this is the most talk the SB has ever gotten here!
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Ibanez »

89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:48 am
Ibanez wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:12 am There's a high population density that makes it "metro".
Not really. MB has a population density of 1,291 people per square mile (31,783 total pop). For comparison, Potomac, MD (my hood) has a population density of 1,827 (45,824 total pop) and I'd laugh my ass off if anyone called us a "metro". We're the sleepy suburbs. This is literally 'downtown' Potomac... a small strip center.

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n the United States, a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is a geographical region with a relatively high population density at its core and close economic ties throughout the area.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropo ... tical_area
A metropolitan area or metro is a region consisting of a densely populated urban core and its less-populated surrounding territories sharing industries, commercial areas, transport network, infrastructures and housing.[1] A metro area usually comprises multiple jurisdictions and municipalities: neighborhoods, townships, boroughs, cities, towns, exurbs, suburbs, counties, districts, and even states and nations like the eurodistricts. As social, economic and political institutions have changed, metropolitan areas have become key economic and political regions.[2]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_area

You're thinking of individual towns/cities like NYC as being metropolitan. That isn't wrong, but the Wikipedia above states a metropolitan statistical area, which is different. I get what you're saying, i'm in the Charlotte Metro area and this is our data
Population (2019) 22,284
• Density 1,134.62/sq mi
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by 89Hen »

Ibanez wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:22 am You're thinking of individual towns/cities like NYC as being metropolitan. That isn't wrong, but the Wikipedia above states a metropolitan statistical area, which is different. I get what you're saying, i'm in the Charlotte Metro area and this is our data
Population (2019) 22,284
• Density 1,134.62/sq mi
If you weren't a suburb of Charlotte, you wouldn't be in a "metro" area. Potomac is not a metro, but we're a part of the DC metro. There is no metro area for MB. MB is the heart of the density and economics for that area.

This all came from me laughing at the notion of MB being called a metro area.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:46 am
Ibanez wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:22 am You're thinking of individual towns/cities like NYC as being metropolitan. That isn't wrong, but the Wikipedia above states a metropolitan statistical area, which is different. I get what you're saying, i'm in the Charlotte Metro area and this is our data
Population (2019) 22,284
• Density 1,134.62/sq mi
If you weren't a suburb of Charlotte, you wouldn't be in a "metro" area. Potomac is not a metro, but we're a part of the DC metro. There is no metro area for MB. MB is the heart of the density and economics for that area.

This all came from me laughing at the notion of MB being called a metro area.
Well if it wasn't for all those damn golf courses taking up space, they could be building townhouses and apartment buildings and creating a metro.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Ibanez »

89Hen wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:46 am
Ibanez wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:22 am You're thinking of individual towns/cities like NYC as being metropolitan. That isn't wrong, but the Wikipedia above states a metropolitan statistical area, which is different. I get what you're saying, i'm in the Charlotte Metro area and this is our data
Population (2019) 22,284
• Density 1,134.62/sq mi
If you weren't a suburb of Charlotte, you wouldn't be in a "metro" area. Potomac is not a metro, but we're a part of the DC metro. There is no metro area for MB. MB is the heart of the density and economics for that area.

This all came from me laughing at the notion of MB being called a metro area.

I get your point. And I find most things about MB laughable. I hate that place.
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Re: Official Sunbelt Adds Streamers Thread

Post by Skjellyfetti »

UNI88 wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:52 am
Skjellyfetti wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:23 am

Also hosted Wake and will host UNC this year.

Hosting in state P5 is huge.

For UNI88, imagine UNI hosting Iowa.
Wake = Iowa :rofl: Wake is probably the #4 university in NC, Iowa is #1 in Iowa. UNI hosting Iowa is closer to Furman hosting Clemson then ASU hosting Wake.
And UNC is the flagship of the North Carolina system.

Yeah, I'd imagine Furman would be pretty excited to host Clemson or South Carolina. And I'd imagine UNI would be pretty excited to host Iowa or Iowa State. The thing is, there is a 0% chance of either of those happening with Furman in the Sun Belt and UNI in the MVC. :coffee:
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Re: Official Sunbelt Adds Streamers Thread

Post by UNI88 »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:46 pm
UNI88 wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:52 am
Wake = Iowa :rofl: Wake is probably the #4 university in NC, Iowa is #1 in Iowa. UNI hosting Iowa is closer to Furman hosting Clemson then ASU hosting Wake.
And UNC is the flagship of the North Carolina system.

Yeah, I'd imagine Furman would be pretty excited to host Clemson or South Carolina. And I'd imagine UNI would be pretty excited to host Iowa or Iowa State. The thing is, there is a 0% chance of either of those happening with Furman in the Sun Belt and UNI in the MVC. :coffee:
UNC is a basketball school with a football team, Iowa is a football school with a basketball team. Apples to oranges.

I must have missed Furman joining the Sun Belt. :D
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Well, the state is a basketball state. App and ECU are the only football schools. So, we are numba 1? :D

And, yes - brain fart on Sun Belt vs SoCon. :oops:
"The unmasking thing was all created by Devin Nunes"
- Richard Burr, (R-NC)
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