Sun Belt 2022 thread

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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by SuperHornet »

The thing I'm scared of is that this game will cause the voters to back WAY off JMU the rest of the season, despite the likelihood that this game was an anomaly for the Dukes....
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Pwns »

I have no doubt JMU can finish ranked if they win out. This isn't 2014 where a Sun Belt team has to be undefeated to be ranked.

Their run defense is the best I've seen from a team that's not a major P5. Giving up a combined 75 yards rushing to Georgia Southern and App is just crazy when both of those teams have really solid backs.

I think they'll honestly be favorites at Louisville and the only Sun Belt team left on the schedule that might can give the JMU D problems is Coastal and Grayson McCall.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

ODU quietly moves into first place with a win over Coastal.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by GannonFan »

Pwns wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:33 am I have no doubt JMU can finish ranked if they win out. This isn't 2014 where a Sun Belt team has to be undefeated to be ranked.

Their run defense is the best I've seen from a team that's not a major P5. Giving up a combined 75 yards rushing to Georgia Southern and App is just crazy when both of those teams have really solid backs.

I think they'll honestly be favorites at Louisville and the only Sun Belt team left on the schedule that might can give the JMU D problems is Coastal and Grayson McCall.
How can you tell anything about their run defense from that game? They just gave us 570 some yards of passing in one game. I wouldn't run the ball either if I was putting up those kinds of numbers through the air.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Highlights from the last 7+ min of the JMU @ GSU game. Starts with GSU up 34-24. Crazy with:
-JMU TD
-GSU FG
-JMU TD
-GSU TD on a highlight reel catch + 2 point conversion (from inside the 1 yd line)
-JMU drive & throwing pick in the GSU red zone with under 20 seconds left.
-GSU fans stormed the field, which I thought was very odd. :suspicious:
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

JMU got their bubble burst vs GSU. JMU had been able to mask their weakness in the secondary with pressure pressure from the front 7, which they doesn’t get vs GSU. Starting corners got gassed, the two 2nd teamers were hurt, and there’s a big drop off 2 the 3rd teamers.

I think JMU bounces back vs Marshall. At home, an they match up much better with Marshall's power football. National stats:
Marshall #21 rush offense (210.2) vs JMU #1 rush defense (36.2 ypg)
JMU #18 rush offense (212.7) vs Marshall #2 rush defense (77.3 ypg)

Passing JMU #19 (307 ypg), Marshall #112 (188.8 ypg). That should be the difference right there as long as Centeio doesn't turn it over like he did vs GSU. Has 22 TDs (17 passing, 5 rushing), 5 turnovers (4 INT, 1 fumble lost). 3 of those 4 INT came vs GSU.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Pwns wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:33 am I have no doubt JMU can finish ranked if they win out. This isn't 2014 where a Sun Belt team has to be undefeated to be ranked.

Their run defense is the best I've seen from a team that's not a major P5. Giving up a combined 75 yards rushing to Georgia Southern and App is just crazy when both of those teams have really solid backs.

I think they'll honestly be favorites at Louisville and the only Sun Belt team left on the schedule that might can give the JMU D problems is Coastal and Grayson McCall.
As far as L'ville Looking at Louisville schedule:
10/22 vs Pitt (4-2) (L'ville -1)
10/29 vs #13 Wake Forest (JMU bye)
11/5 vs JMU
11/12 @ #5 Clempson
Maybe the JMU game will be a trap game for L'ville, but I don't expect JMU to win.

JMU could lose any of the last 3 games @ ODU, GST, Coastal. Right now the over/under is probably 8-3.
The bye before App St helped, and might before L'ville, but I wish JMU had 12 games, esp when other teams have up to 14 (12 + conference champ game + bowl game). JMU has a chance at a toilet bowl IF there's aren't enough eligible teams and the NCAA grants a waiver. Think they would be more inclined to give a waiver for a toilet bowl to an 8-3 or 9-2 JMU vs a 5-7 team.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

I didn't realize a waiver was possible. I was thinking last week of the potential irony of an undefeated ranked team being left out.
Right now, it looks like 3 of the 5 bowl slots will be accounted for soon. Then a bunch of teams at 3-3, 4-3 for Georgia Southern.
If App beats Georgia State tomorrow, and assuming a win over Robert Morris the following week, we enter the gauntlet at 5-3. Then it's road games at Marshall and Coastal, home against ODU and away at Georgia Southern. This seasons schedule has read like an extended 1-AA playoff run.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

AshevilleApp wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:11 am I didn't realize a waiver was possible. I was thinking last week of the potential irony of an undefeated ranked team being left out.
Right now, it looks like 3 of the 5 bowl slots will be accounted for soon. Then a bunch of teams at 3-3, 4-3 for Georgia Southern.
If App beats Georgia State tomorrow, and assuming a win over Robert Morris the following week, we enter the gauntlet at 5-3. Then it's road games at Marshall and Coastal, home against ODU and away at Georgia Southern. This seasons schedule has read like an extended 1-AA playoff run.
There‘s a slim chance it sounds like.
Insufficient Number of Deserving Teams
If an insufficient number of institutions does not meet the definition of a "deserving team" to participate in postseason bowl games in a particular year, an institution that meets a condition set forth below shall be eligible as an alternate to be selected to participate in such a bowl game after all deserving teams have been selected to participate. All institutions that meet the first condition must be selected before an institution that meets the second condition may be selected and so forth in descending order. The conditions below represents the order in which alternates are identified in the event there are insufficient number of deserving teams:

3) An institution that is in its final year of reclassification from the Football Championship Subdivision to the Football Bowl Subdivision and meets the definition of a "deserving team".
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... ndbook.pdf

JMU has competed in the same manner (schedule, conference play, etc) as a team in year 2/final year of transition. Haven’t yet heard that the waiver to be in our final year of reclassification has been granted, but off the JMU board a few weeks ago from one of the long time top posters (JB is Jeff Bourne, the JMU AD):
JB said we were waiting to file the final part of the "skip a year" waiver in part for the NCAA transformation committee to finalize what the FBS criteria will be going forward. There's a catch-22 there if we file early, and then they change the criteria, and we didn't show that we met the "new" criteria. Believe we also have to wait for an NCAA site visit this year. It's a multi-step process. Don't know if it can be accelerated, or we already agreed with NCAA on the timeline.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Baldy »

BDKJMU wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:59 am Highlights from the last 7+ min of the JMU @ GSU game. Starts with GSU up 34-24. Crazy with:
-JMU TD
-GSU FG
-JMU TD
-GSU TD on a highlight reel catch + 2 point conversion (from inside the 1 yd line)
-JMU drive & throwing pick in the GSU red zone with under 20 seconds left.
-GSU fans stormed the field, which I thought was very odd. :suspicious:
There's nothing strange about storming the field when you beat a top 25 team at home. :coffee:
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Baldy »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:47 am
Pwns wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:33 am I have no doubt JMU can finish ranked if they win out. This isn't 2014 where a Sun Belt team has to be undefeated to be ranked.

Their run defense is the best I've seen from a team that's not a major P5. Giving up a combined 75 yards rushing to Georgia Southern and App is just crazy when both of those teams have really solid backs.

I think they'll honestly be favorites at Louisville and the only Sun Belt team left on the schedule that might can give the JMU D problems is Coastal and Grayson McCall.
How can you tell anything about their run defense from that game? They just gave us 570 some yards of passing in one game. I wouldn't run the ball either if I was putting up those kinds of numbers through the air.
JMU's run D is as advertised. They're stout. Our O line is adequate run blocking but are excellent pass protectors. I think we've only given up one sack on the season, so them not getting consistent pressure on Vantrease was no fluke.

IMO, Vantrease is only an average QB. Playing behind a very good O Line and collectively having the best skill position players in the conference at his disposal make him look better than he really is.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

Troy St. moves into first place in the Western Division. That Hail Mary win in Boone doesn't look so bad now.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by Baldy »

GSU takes out their second FCS move up and second 1st place team in two weeks at ODU.
Marshall takes out JMU. The Dukes lose two in a row for the first time since 2015.
Army beats ULM like a drum.
Ragin Cajuns making it look easy against Ark State.
Southern Miss and TX State in a dogfight/pillow fight.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Starters alone out to injury just last week/2 games:
-QB Todd Centeio (some shoulder injury in practice)
-Both OT
-Both LB
-S

Backup QB TERRIBLE. 13 for 35, 1 TD/4 INT, 1 lost fumble. Sacked 7 times, part because reshuffled JMU OL missing starting OTs was a sieve bs a good Marshall DL, part because kid continuously holds onto the ball too long and has terrible pocket prescence. Not sure how long Centeio out (bye week next week). If the back up is the starter the rest of the season, JMU likely won’t win another game.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by SuperHornet »

I hope you're wrong, BDK, but given the items you mentioned, I can easily see your conclusion come to pass. And the season was going so well, too....
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

App vs Coastal tonight at the beach. We still have a slim chance at winning the SB East, but need to win out. And get some help with a JMU loss.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

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AshevilleApp wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:21 pm App vs Coastal tonight at the beach. We still have a slim chance at winning the SB East, but need to win out. And get some help with a JMU loss.
That doesn't seem likely right now. Coastal's running triple option, something I've wanted to see for a LONG time, and App can't stop it. They're running it out of formations that seem more suited to the zone read option, and perhaps that's why it's working: it's not expected. And they even busted it wide open with a reverse flea flicker for a TD to make it 21-7 early in the 2nd quarter. App's been mostly punting, thought their one TD drive seemed pretty good, taking advantage of a weak Coastal secondary. They'll have to find a way to sustain that, though.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

Congratulations Coastal. Maybe we can still qualify for a bowl game.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by ASUG8 »

AshevilleApp wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:50 pm Congratulations Coastal. Maybe we can still qualify for a bowl game.
This....it's painful but we still own the series. It was hard to tell if their QB was as banged up as they said. I have some serious doubts about our coaching with our commitment to the run when they were stacking the box all night. There was ample opportunity for midfield passes as well as downfield more often, but we seem to be shackled to the run whether it's available or not. CCU is a good team and we're whatever shows up on a given gameday unfortunately. The Jekyl/Hyde performance continues every week - hopefully we can get things straight with Marshall/ODU/Ga So in the next weeks.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

JMU @ L’Ville Sat 7:30 ESPNU. One of professional 5. I’ve seen them play twice. Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory vs FSU in Sept, and destroyed #10 Wake Forest last Sat. A lot of talent, not so much discipline. Apparently if their football team is like their basketball team, then hopefully after they destroyed Wake they were out partying with booster provided strippers, hookers, and blow, are totally overlooking this FCS moveup team that has lost 2 straight, that most of their players couldn’t even tell you even what state they’re from, and are looking ahead to next weeks @ #5 Clempson. If that is the case AND JMU gets their starting QB Todd Centeio back close to 100% (missed loss v Marshall with a ‘strained oblique’) and a couple of the other 1/2 doz injured starters back after this bye week, JMU has a chance. L’ville is inly -7, which indicates Centeio is playing. Acorrding to some folks on the JMU board, twatter rumors state Centeio is practicing full. But if its still the backup who was a disaster vs Marshall (Cignetti closed practice this past week to outsiders) JMU is gonna get rolled.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Like I said on the JMU board:3 straight losses:
-Vs GSU leading at the half. Outscored, out adjusted, out coached 2nd half.
-Vs Marshall leading at the half. Outscored, shutout, out adjusted, out coached 2nd half.
-Vs Louisville tied at the half. Outscored, shutout, out adjusted, out coached 2nd half.

Going to get out coached/out adjusted some games. It happens to every staff in their weekly chess matches. But to happen. 3 weeks in a row with 3 straight losses is extremely disappointing.

Excuses are like assholes, but here goes: Vs GSU was 2nd straight on road, vs Marshall found out right before game starting QB couldn’t go with a beat up JMU team coming into the game & more beat up by the end, and vs Lousiville were facing superior P5 talent & Centeio played but clearly not 100%. All 3 of those were losses I’d predicted at the beginning of the season, At this point are 5-3 when I’d predicted 4-4 (I’d predicted loss @ ASU). We’ll see if can go 2-1 down the stretch (@ ODU, home vs GST & CCU) to finish 7-4/5-3..
Last edited by BDKJMU on Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Week 10 Scores
CCU 35, App St 28
Louisville 34, JMU 10
Marshall 12, ODU 0
GST 42, S Miss 14
S Alabama 38, GSU 31
Troy 23, Louisiana Lafayette 17
Louisiana Monroe 31, TX St 30

Standings
East
CCU 8-1/5-1
JMU 5-3/3-2
GST 4-5/3-2
App St 5-4/2-3
GSU 5-4/2-3
Marshall 5-4/2-3
ODU 3-6/2-3

West
Troy 7-2/5-1
S Alabama 7-2/4-1
S Miss 5-4/3-2
Louisiana Monroe 3-6/2-3
Louisiana Lafayette 4-5/2-4
Texas St 3-6/1-4
Arkansas St 2-7/1-5





West
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

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JMU holds GST to 9 1st dowms & 257 yds…and GST scores 40 pts. JMU fumbles the ball 7x, loses 4.

JMU goes up 7-0. Then rest of 1st half GST gets TWO sccop and scores, and a FG aftwr JMU fumbles a kickoff at the 4 yd line. 1st half GST 17 pts off JMU fumbles, up 34-14 at the half.

2nd half JMU opens a can of whoop ass, and reels off 28 straight to go up 42-34. Late 4th yet another JMU fumble in JMU territory. GST scores TD, fails on 2 pt conversion amd onside kick. JMU wins 42-40.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by AshevilleApp »

Coastal Carolina plays JMU on Saturday, to see who represents the east in the SB Championship.

In other news, Georgia Southern will host App in a play in game for a potential bowl spot.
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Re: Sun Belt 2022 thread

Post by BDKJMU »

AshevilleApp wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 9:51 am Coastal Carolina plays JMU on Saturday, to see who represents the east in the SB Championship.

In other news, Georgia Southern will host App in a play in game for a potential bowl spot.
SBC East standings #23 CCU (9-1/6-1) @ JMU (7-3/5-2).
https://sunbeltsports.org/standings.aspx?path=football
If JMU wins they would be 1st place in SBC East, but ineligible to go to the SBC title game due to the BS technicality. Now the SBC and can prematurely label CCU SBC East champs,

and CCU can prematurely call themselves that,

but I bet if JMU wins, the SBC "explanation" isn't going to age well, because "first place" and "champions" is the same thing.
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