2022 Elections Thread

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:18 am
kalm wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:01 am

Perhaps not a perfect explanation but some of this is likely true.

In the biggest non sequitur ever, "Oh yeah? Montana is going to beat EDubs ass".

Excited for this game. EWU is actually my favorite team outside of the Montana schools.
This too is likely.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:28 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:18 am

In the biggest non sequitur ever, "Oh yeah? Montana is going to beat EDubs ass".

Excited for this game. EWU is actually my favorite team outside of the Montana schools.
This too is likely.
Sorry bro. Wasn't trying to rub in a tough season. Just talking shit.

As an aside, when I was a junior in high school, we lost to the Montana School for the Deaf and Blind both times we played them in basketball.

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:01 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:05 am

It's what I said. Trying their best to trickle out R victories until the public forgets.
Perhaps not a perfect explanation but some of this is likely true.

Most states were at 90+% if not by Tues night then by Wed. FL and TX have been at 99% since at least yesterday.

Here today:
CA races: 58%-59%
AZ: 83%-85%
NV: 94%
And no updates since yesterday evening 20+ hours ago.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:38 pm just as an aside, tonight I looked at how States totally controlled by Republicans during the COVID thing have done with respect to death rates vs. those totally controlled by Democrats. By totally controlled I mean one party has the governorship and both legislative houses.

Not surprisingly, to me anyway, the average death rate (cases per million population) for States controlled by Republicans is 21% higher (3540 to 2916) than it is for States controlled by Democrats. And it gets more disparate when one controls for population density and %population >65.

When you control for those things you get a complex situation where the Republican controlled States look worse as %>65 increases. If you hold population density constant and set %>65 at the lowest among the States (11.7%), the Republican controlled States rate is 24% higher (3371 to 2710). if you hold population density constant and set %>65 constant at the highest among States (21.8%), the Republican controlled States rate is 45% higher (3941 to 2710).

Completely consistent with the idea that the Republican Party has become the Party of Stupid. Anti truth. Anti science. Out of touch with reality. Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people who didn't have to have died from COVID-19 due to the stupidity of the Republican Party. But we still have them being a factor nationally. It's just really sad.
Dude. Stop pedaling your garbage in garbage out bullshit. You can't normalize deaths because there were no cultures performed, rural areas are notoriously out of shape and there was a huge monetary incentive to classify deaths as from Covid vs with Covid.

You're a total fraud .

I'll readily admit rural America is sadly out of shape compared to coastal, but you insistence it's due to Trump and Covid is retarded.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:40 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:38 pm just as an aside, tonight I looked at how States totally controlled by Republicans during the COVID thing have done with respect to death rates vs. those totally controlled by Democrats. By totally controlled I mean one party has the governorship and both legislative houses.

Not surprisingly, to me anyway, the average death rate (cases per million population) for States controlled by Republicans is 21% higher (3540 to 2916) than it is for States controlled by Democrats. And it gets more disparate when one controls for population density and %population >65.

When you control for those things you get a complex situation where the Republican controlled States look worse as %>65 increases. If you hold population density constant and set %>65 at the lowest among the States (11.7%), the Republican controlled States rate is 24% higher (3371 to 2710). if you hold population density constant and set %>65 constant at the highest among States (21.8%), the Republican controlled States rate is 45% higher (3941 to 2710).

Completely consistent with the idea that the Republican Party has become the Party of Stupid. Anti truth. Anti science. Out of touch with reality. Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people who didn't have to have died from COVID-19 due to the stupidity of the Republican Party. But we still have them being a factor nationally. It's just really sad.
Dude. Stop pedaling your garbage in garbage out bullshit. You can't normalize deaths because there were no cultures performed, rural areas are notoriously out of shape and there was a huge monetary incentive to classify deaths as from Covid vs with Covid.

You're a total fraud .

I'll readily admit rural America is sadly out of shape compared to coastal, but you insistence it's due to Trump and Covid is retarded.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

kalm wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:40 pm Dude. Stop pedaling your garbage in garbage out bullshit. You can't normalize deaths because there were no cultures performed, rural areas are notoriously out of shape and there was a huge monetary incentive to classify deaths as from Covid vs with Covid.

You're a total fraud .

I'll readily admit rural America is sadly out of shape compared to coastal, but you insistence it's due to Trump and Covid is retarded.
They were also following dear leader and they like freedom!
We had a dear leader from 2008 - 2020. Hopefully we've moved past cult of personality presidencies.

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:05 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:40 pm

Dude. Stop pedaling your garbage in garbage out bullshit. You can't normalize deaths because there were no cultures performed, rural areas are notoriously out of shape and there was a huge monetary incentive to classify deaths as from Covid vs with Covid.

You're a total fraud .

I'll readily admit rural America is sadly out of shape compared to coastal, but you insistence it's due to Trump and Covid is retarded.
They were also following dear leader and they like freedom!
For sure. Heaven forbid Trump dangled monetary incentives to track the issue.

You saying Trump knew, and skewed the numbers?

That's quite a claim.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Democrats retain the Senate.

Also, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Kent in WA 3rd. 538 had it 98% chance for Kent. Massive upset. :lol:

Historic midterms for Dems. '26 is going to be ugly. This was R's chance. :coffee:
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:27 pm Democrats retain the Senate.

Also, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Kent in WA 3rd. 538 had it 98% chance for Kent. Massive upset. :lol:

Historic midterms for Dems. '26 is going to be ugly. This was R's chance. :coffee:
Gen Z retiring the boomers. The Republican Party will need to begrudgingly adapt to new social constructs from renewable energy to gender identification to living wages.

Generational Theory in full effect.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Baldy »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:25 am
Skjellyfetti wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:27 pm Democrats retain the Senate.

Also, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Kent in WA 3rd. 538 had it 98% chance for Kent. Massive upset. :lol:

Historic midterms for Dems. '26 is going to be ugly. This was R's chance. :coffee:
Gen Z retiring the boomers. The Republican Party will need to begrudgingly adapt to new social constructs from renewable energy to gender identification to living wages.

Generational Theory in full effect.
Yes, that's exactly it. Oh and don't forget drag queen story hour too. :lol:
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

Baldy wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:41 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:25 am

Gen Z retiring the boomers. The Republican Party will need to begrudgingly adapt to new social constructs from renewable energy to gender identification to living wages.

Generational Theory in full effect.
Yes, that's exactly it. Oh and don't forget drag queen story hour too. :lol:
I think it’s time to raise the voting age. We deserve to age gracefully!

“Where is the red wave I was promised? This cannot be! Something has gone wrong! These results — something is the matter with them. I would like to speak to an election manager, if one can be found.

After this disheartening news, I have been doing a great deal of soul-searching. Not my soul, which is, of course, perfect, but the souls of others. What, for instance, possessed Gen Z to put down their phones and Pokémon-Go-to-the-polls, and — worse yet — to vote for Democrats in substantial numbers when they arrived there?

There has been some mistake, clearly. And until we can get to the bottom of it, we have got to take prompt action to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. Change our platform so that anything in it is appealing to young people? Learn to take the campaign to online spaces? Make inroads on TikTok? No, God forbid.

That would suggest there is something wrong with our party, and there is nothing wrong with our party. When I look at our prominent acolytes and national figureheads I see nothing but total dominance! The party is great and everyone in it is savory and not oleaginous, from Ted Cruz to Mehmet Oz to Donald Trump and — of course! — all the Mikes! What could be unappealing to young people about all the Mikes?
And our ideas?! Top-notch! Forcing people to give birth, banning library books and increasingly embracing fringe conspiracy theories — do these sound like the actions of a party that is off track? If you think that democracy is good and you like to see the results of the election before declaring a winner, I don’t know what to tell you! That’s a snowflake problem. Want student debt relief? No, you don’t. I am not moving an inch on any of these positions. You must come to me.

We already tried gerrymandering. And we will keep trying it! We already tried voter suppression of various kinds. That was good, but did not go far enough. It was not sufficiently well-targeted.

The answer is simple: We have got to raise the voting age. Twenty-one? That might not be enough, honestly. Millennials are not as conservative as they ought to be and some of them are pushing 40 now. We should consider whether we might not want it to be higher than that. Fifty feels reasonable. A good, round number.

I hear what you are saying. “You keep trying to tackle the problem from the perspective of discouraging voters! Why not, instead, modify any of your stances in a way that might encourage more people to vote for you?” I will tell you why not: because I do not want to.

Consider whom you want to trust with making decisions for the future. Shouldn’t you put your confidence in sober, levelheaded elders who, on their way out, are entirely unbiased and can look at the situation without considering their own self-interest?

Young people are the last people you want to make important choices about the future. They are not objective about it; they will be the ones living there.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ge-satire/
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by HI54UNI »

Saw several articles before the election talking about Russian interference with the upcoming election. Now that talk seems to have disappeared....
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

Skjellyfetti wrote:Democrats retain the Senate.

Also, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Kent in WA 3rd. 538 had it 98% chance for Kent. Massive upset. Image

Historic midterms for Dems. '26 is going to be ugly. This was R's chance. :coffee:
Kent was an extreme MAGAt who primaried Rep. Jaime Jaime Herrera Beutler who voted to impeach. It's a red district where a good sized chunk of republicans are more rational and moderate or libertarian. Gluesenkamp Perez is a gun-owning small business owner who campaigned as a moderate. It looks like the moderate republicans repudiated trump and voted D in this election. Republicans retake the seat if they nominate a moderate in 2024.

And kalmy, I would guess that there were plenty of Boomer & Gen X republicans who voted for Gluesenkamp Perez. If I lived on the other side of the river I would have voted for her.

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:43 am
Skjellyfetti wrote:Democrats retain the Senate.

Also, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Kent in WA 3rd. 538 had it 98% chance for Kent. Massive upset. Image

Historic midterms for Dems. '26 is going to be ugly. This was R's chance. :coffee:
Kent was an extreme MAGAt who primaried Rep. Jaime Jaime Herrera Beutler who voted to impeach. It's a red district where a good sized chunk of republicans are more rational and moderate or libertarian. Gluesenkamp Perez is a gun-owning small business owner who campaigned as a moderate. It looks like the moderate republicans repudiated trump and voted D in this election. Republicans retake the seat if they nominate a moderate in 2024.

And kalmy, I would guess that there were plenty of Boomer & Gen X republicans who voted for Gluesenkamp Perez. If I lived on the other side of the river I would have voted for her.

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My hippy brother and SiL who live near Ridgefield did.

Like I implied before, female, small business owning moderates are a good thing and electable. The Dems rely too much on corporatism.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Know nothing about this district or race, but a conk flip just announced:
Last edited by BDKJMU on Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:48 am Know about this district or race, but a conk flip just announced:
Flip side of what happened in Washington with Herrera Beutler, Kent, and Gluesenkamp Perez. Progressive extremist McLeod-Skinner beat incumbent Kurt Schrader (who organized against Biden's Build Back Better bill) in the democratic primary and moderates went for Chavez-DeRemer in the general election.

For all of the democratic celebrating the red tsunami being a ripple, the 2020 midterm elections were a repudiation of trump and extremists from both sides. It was not a vote of confidence for Biden or the progressive agenda. Hopefully, they get the hint and focus on the economy, safety, etc.
Last edited by UNI88 on Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Baldy »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:41 am
Baldy wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:41 am
Yes, that's exactly it. Oh and don't forget drag queen story hour too. :lol:
I think it’s time to raise the voting age. We deserve to age gracefully!

“Where is the red wave I was promised? This cannot be! Something has gone wrong! These results — something is the matter with them. I would like to speak to an election manager, if one can be found.

After this disheartening news, I have been doing a great deal of soul-searching. Not my soul, which is, of course, perfect, but the souls of others. What, for instance, possessed Gen Z to put down their phones and Pokémon-Go-to-the-polls, and — worse yet — to vote for Democrats in substantial numbers when they arrived there?

There has been some mistake, clearly. And until we can get to the bottom of it, we have got to take prompt action to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. Change our platform so that anything in it is appealing to young people? Learn to take the campaign to online spaces? Make inroads on TikTok? No, God forbid.

That would suggest there is something wrong with our party, and there is nothing wrong with our party. When I look at our prominent acolytes and national figureheads I see nothing but total dominance! The party is great and everyone in it is savory and not oleaginous, from Ted Cruz to Mehmet Oz to Donald Trump and — of course! — all the Mikes! What could be unappealing to young people about all the Mikes?
And our ideas?! Top-notch! Forcing people to give birth, banning library books and increasingly embracing fringe conspiracy theories — do these sound like the actions of a party that is off track? If you think that democracy is good and you like to see the results of the election before declaring a winner, I don’t know what to tell you! That’s a snowflake problem. Want student debt relief? No, you don’t. I am not moving an inch on any of these positions. You must come to me.

We already tried gerrymandering. And we will keep trying it! We already tried voter suppression of various kinds. That was good, but did not go far enough. It was not sufficiently well-targeted.

The answer is simple: We have got to raise the voting age. Twenty-one? That might not be enough, honestly. Millennials are not as conservative as they ought to be and some of them are pushing 40 now. We should consider whether we might not want it to be higher than that. Fifty feels reasonable. A good, round number.

I hear what you are saying. “You keep trying to tackle the problem from the perspective of discouraging voters! Why not, instead, modify any of your stances in a way that might encourage more people to vote for you?” I will tell you why not: because I do not want to.

Consider whom you want to trust with making decisions for the future. Shouldn’t you put your confidence in sober, levelheaded elders who, on their way out, are entirely unbiased and can look at the situation without considering their own self-interest?

Young people are the last people you want to make important choices about the future. They are not objective about it; they will be the ones living there.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ge-satire/
Political satire written by an out of touch inside the beltway elitist isn't that funny or insightful. :|
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

Baldy wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:16 pm
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:41 am

I think it’s time to raise the voting age. We deserve to age gracefully!

“Where is the red wave I was promised? This cannot be! Something has gone wrong! These results — something is the matter with them. I would like to speak to an election manager, if one can be found.

After this disheartening news, I have been doing a great deal of soul-searching. Not my soul, which is, of course, perfect, but the souls of others. What, for instance, possessed Gen Z to put down their phones and Pokémon-Go-to-the-polls, and — worse yet — to vote for Democrats in substantial numbers when they arrived there?

There has been some mistake, clearly. And until we can get to the bottom of it, we have got to take prompt action to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. Change our platform so that anything in it is appealing to young people? Learn to take the campaign to online spaces? Make inroads on TikTok? No, God forbid.

That would suggest there is something wrong with our party, and there is nothing wrong with our party. When I look at our prominent acolytes and national figureheads I see nothing but total dominance! The party is great and everyone in it is savory and not oleaginous, from Ted Cruz to Mehmet Oz to Donald Trump and — of course! — all the Mikes! What could be unappealing to young people about all the Mikes?
And our ideas?! Top-notch! Forcing people to give birth, banning library books and increasingly embracing fringe conspiracy theories — do these sound like the actions of a party that is off track? If you think that democracy is good and you like to see the results of the election before declaring a winner, I don’t know what to tell you! That’s a snowflake problem. Want student debt relief? No, you don’t. I am not moving an inch on any of these positions. You must come to me.

We already tried gerrymandering. And we will keep trying it! We already tried voter suppression of various kinds. That was good, but did not go far enough. It was not sufficiently well-targeted.

The answer is simple: We have got to raise the voting age. Twenty-one? That might not be enough, honestly. Millennials are not as conservative as they ought to be and some of them are pushing 40 now. We should consider whether we might not want it to be higher than that. Fifty feels reasonable. A good, round number.

I hear what you are saying. “You keep trying to tackle the problem from the perspective of discouraging voters! Why not, instead, modify any of your stances in a way that might encourage more people to vote for you?” I will tell you why not: because I do not want to.

Consider whom you want to trust with making decisions for the future. Shouldn’t you put your confidence in sober, levelheaded elders who, on their way out, are entirely unbiased and can look at the situation without considering their own self-interest?

Young people are the last people you want to make important choices about the future. They are not objective about it; they will be the ones living there.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ge-satire/
Political satire written by an out of touch inside the beltway elitist isn't that funny or insightful. :|
It is to an out-of-touch Palousian. :D

I love it when hypocritical democrats or republicans complain about the other side's gerrymandering. There's an Illinois for every North Carolina.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:40 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:38 pm just as an aside, tonight I looked at how States totally controlled by Republicans during the COVID thing have done with respect to death rates vs. those totally controlled by Democrats. By totally controlled I mean one party has the governorship and both legislative houses.

Not surprisingly, to me anyway, the average death rate (cases per million population) for States controlled by Republicans is 21% higher (3540 to 2916) than it is for States controlled by Democrats. And it gets more disparate when one controls for population density and %population >65.

When you control for those things you get a complex situation where the Republican controlled States look worse as %>65 increases. If you hold population density constant and set %>65 at the lowest among the States (11.7%), the Republican controlled States rate is 24% higher (3371 to 2710). if you hold population density constant and set %>65 constant at the highest among States (21.8%), the Republican controlled States rate is 45% higher (3941 to 2710).

Completely consistent with the idea that the Republican Party has become the Party of Stupid. Anti truth. Anti science. Out of touch with reality. Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people who didn't have to have died from COVID-19 due to the stupidity of the Republican Party. But we still have them being a factor nationally. It's just really sad.
Dude. Stop pedaling your garbage in garbage out bullshit. You can't normalize deaths because there were no cultures performed, rural areas are notoriously out of shape and there was a huge monetary incentive to classify deaths as from Covid vs with Covid.

You're a total fraud .

I'll readily admit rural America is sadly out of shape compared to coastal, but you insistence it's due to Trump and Covid is retarded.
No. What's happening is that you don't accept the data because the data don't comport with what you wish to believe. That thing about from COVID vs. with COVID was thoroughly debunked a long time ago.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:00 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:40 pm

Dude. Stop pedaling your garbage in garbage out bullshit. You can't normalize deaths because there were no cultures performed, rural areas are notoriously out of shape and there was a huge monetary incentive to classify deaths as from Covid vs with Covid.

You're a total fraud .

I'll readily admit rural America is sadly out of shape compared to coastal, but you insistence it's due to Trump and Covid is retarded.
No. What's happening is that you don't accept the data because the data don't comport with what you wish to believe. That thing about from COVID vs. with COVID was thoroughly debunked a long time ago.
That thing? No it wasn't debunked. I can guarantee you have no idea how deaths are coded as with everything else in regards to health and wellness you get wrong.

You don't remember Walensky stating it was fact that many in hospitals were actually admitted for something else, but because hospitals make more money if someone is Covid positive, they PCR'd everyone and drove up a false rate? It's also why there were crazy stories about car deaths being attributed to Covid. It was all about making more money.

So now you've got three problems. The first is an over count of those hospitalized due to overcycled PCR tests picking up viral debris, The second is that they didn't confirm the positive with a viral culture, and the last is when the CDC changed the cycle threshold for the vaccinated, but not the unvaccinated. You're using gamed numbers.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:14 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:00 pm

No. What's happening is that you don't accept the data because the data don't comport with what you wish to believe. That thing about from COVID vs. with COVID was thoroughly debunked a long time ago.
That thing? No it wasn't debunked. I can guarantee you have no idea how deaths are coded as with everything else in regards to health and wellness you get wrong.

You don't remember Walensky stating it was fact that many in hospitals were actually admitted for something else, but because hospitals make more money if someone is Covid positive, they PCR'd everyone and drove up a false rate? It's also why there were crazy stories about car deaths being attributed to Covid. It was all about making more money.

So now you've got three problems. The first is an over count of those hospitalized due to overcycled PCR tests picking up viral debris, The second is that they didn't confirm the positive with a viral culture, and the last is when the CDC changed the cycle threshold for the vaccinated, but not the unvaccinated. You're using gamed numbers.
Wolenski did not say hospitals PCRed everyone that drove up so they could make more money. I recall a story about a car death attributed to COVID-19. Just looked it up again. See https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/veri ... ae75c2b2ce. No, car deaths are not in the numbers reported as COVID-19 deaths.

I posted what I think is a good video on this "with COVID and not OF COVID" nonsense below because I think the guy does a good job. He talked specifically about the claim that only 6% of deaths were from COVID-19 but the information has broader application than that because he talks about the death certificate process and the role of co morbidities in COVID-19 deaths.

Aside from that, when I look at the data, the associations for all of the things that are not political make perfect sense. There are associations involving % population >65. There are associations involving population density. There are, yes, associations involving vaccination. You'd have to believe that somehow, by chance, the deficiencies you think exist with deaths reporting worked out by chance to create a dataset where the associations worked out like that. And, when it comes to Party control of States, you'd have to believe that just happened by chance as well. You have to believe that somehow, by chance, the over counting you think has occurred was distributed in a way that created the associations one would reasonably expect.

You've got the entire scientific community considering data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to be reliable enough to base conclusions.

And by the way my wife went to the hospital twice and I went once while COVID-19 was a big deal. Neither of us were tested for COVID-19 on any of the occasions.

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:22 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:14 pm

That thing? No it wasn't debunked. I can guarantee you have no idea how deaths are coded as with everything else in regards to health and wellness you get wrong.

You don't remember Walensky stating it was fact that many in hospitals were actually admitted for something else, but because hospitals make more money if someone is Covid positive, they PCR'd everyone and drove up a false rate? It's also why there were crazy stories about car deaths being attributed to Covid. It was all about making more money.

So now you've got three problems. The first is an over count of those hospitalized due to overcycled PCR tests picking up viral debris, The second is that they didn't confirm the positive with a viral culture, and the last is when the CDC changed the cycle threshold for the vaccinated, but not the unvaccinated. You're using gamed numbers.
Wolenski did not say hospitals PCRed everyone that drove up so they could make more money. I recall a story about a car death attributed to COVID-19. Just looked it up again. See https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/veri ... ae75c2b2ce. No, car deaths are not in the numbers reported as COVID-19 deaths.

I posted what I think is a good video on this "with COVID and not OF COVID" nonsense below because I think the guy does a good job. He talked specifically about the claim that only 6% of deaths were from COVID-19 but the information has broader application than that because he talks about the death certificate process and the role of co morbidities in COVID-19 deaths.

Aside from that, when I look at the data, the associations for all of the things that are not political make perfect sense. There are associations involving % population >65. There are associations involving population density. There are, yes, associations involving vaccination. You'd have to believe that somehow, by chance, the deficiencies you think exist with deaths reporting worked out by chance to create a dataset where the associations worked out like that. And, when it comes to Party control of States, you'd have to believe that just happened by chance as well. You have to believe that somehow, by chance, the over counting you think has occurred was distributed in a way that created the associations one would reasonably expect.

You've got the entire scientific community considering data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to be reliable enough to base conclusions.

And by the way my wife went to the hospital twice and I went once while COVID-19 was a big deal. Neither of us were tested for COVID-19 on any of the occasions.

There will sadly remain an effort to render Covid as mostly over-reaction and not a big deal. There was some over-reaction but also grotesque under-reaction. And it was indeed a very big deal.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

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Just a note on the Hispanic/Latino vote because I heard a Republican consultant today say the Republicans got "historic" support among that group. I don't know what he meant by "historic" but it was not the best they've done in a congressional mid term.

This time, the Hispanic/Latino vote was 60% for Democrats, 39% for Republicans. In the 2004 House elections, it was Democrats 55%, Republicans 44%.

By the next election, 2006, the overall House vote was 69% for Democrats 30% for Republicans.

And that's the thing. The Hispanic/Latino vote has been consistently in favor of Democrats but highly variable. I can't get to all the exit polling data for House races. But in Presidential races going back to 1976, the percentage of voters voting for Republicans has ranged from 18 through 44%. Some people made a big deal over Trump getting 32% of the Hispanic/Latino vote in 2020. That level of support ranked 5th highest among 12 Presidential elections since exit polling started. It was nowhere close to being unprecedented.

There is not, so far, evidence of change in the basic picture.

BTW, in 2004, the Republican Senate Candidate won the Hispanic/Latino vote in Florida by 60% to 39%. I also know that Bush won the Hispanic/Latino vote in Florida that year in the Presidential race but can't find the exit poll for that right now. The point is that what happened in Florida yesterday isn't unprecedented either.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

It'd be good to make having a college degree a minimum requirement for voting. I'd written a big post with specific numbers and lost it and don't want to go through looking up and typing the numbers again right now but the bottom line is that there was exit polling on 9 Senate races. The actual results so far appear to be Democrats winning 4, Republicans winning 4, and one going to a runoff.

The States involved are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The exit polling estimates show Democrats as winning among college graduates at >95% confidence for all of the States except Florida. The Florida estimate shows the Republican winning at 95% confidence.

So, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that, if only people with college degrees could vote, Democrats would've 8 of those 9 Senate seats. There's 95% confidence that the Democrat got >50% in Georgia so there's sufficient evidence that we wouldn't have to worry about a runoff.

Also, the overall house vote among college grads estimate is Democrats 54% to Republicans 44%. So I think it's safe to say, if only college grads would vote, the Democrats would have a very solid House majority.

I also looked at what would happen if only people with advanced degrees could vote. The margins for Democrats are larger, of course. But the only difference is that there is not 95% confidence that the Republican won Florida among post grads. Better than 90% confidence. But not 95%. The overall House vote among those with advanced degrees was 57% to 41%.

All in all, I think raising to bar to requiring a college degree to vote would be sufficient. And it would really help this country. Then if we need to we can revisit the situation and raise the bar to having only people with advanced degrees vote.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

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kalm wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 5:02 pm

There will sadly remain an effort to render Covid as mostly over-reaction and not a big deal. There was some over-reaction but also grotesque under-reaction. And it was indeed a very big deal.
I do not think there was over-reaction. There was uncertainty and a core tenant of public health is that, when there is uncertainty, you err on the side of protecting public health. And I think that, if most rational people really think about it, they will agree that that's the way it should be.

The problem wasn't just under reaction. It was and continues to be a constant torrent of misinformation. Like the idea that the death counts aren't accurate and that they are being exaggerated. There is always SOME error but they are basically accurate. And most people who are qualified to judge think that the deaths are actually somewhat UNDER reported. Or like all the anti vaccine nonsense. The vaccines are safe by any reasonable standard. They significantly reduce the risk of being a case and even more significantly reduce the risk of severe disease and/or death. Those things are not even remotely debatable from a scientific standpoint. But we still have people trying to undermine confidence in the vaccines.

Ivermectin and hydroxychloriquine do not work. We can't solve the problem by having everybody load up on Vitamin D. So on and so forth.
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