2022 Elections Thread
Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Madison Cawthorn lost his primary last night....and you could hear the cheers 4 or 5 counties over. Good riddance to that horrible man. He's an embarrassment to the State, his family and the Republican Party. I like Chuck Edwards, the gentleman who beat him. I hope he wins in November.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Lot of candidates asking people to hold their beer when it comes to dumb Trump endorsements.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
PA’s election system is so fucked up we’re not going to know until at least Fri. It got worse with the mass mail in of ballots. As of this morning Oz held a SLEIGHT lead of about two tenths of 1%/2.5k votes.SDHornet wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 8:29 pmTrump endorsing Oz is just comical. Couldn't have picked a worse candidate.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 6:30 pm YUGE primary here in PA.
Senate: Open seat with Pat Tomey retiring.
Conk side
7 candidates, but a 3 way race that has gotten huge national attention. Went with Tom McCormick, West Point grad, 82nd ABN, Gulf War vet, CEO of Bridgewater Associates. Close 2nd for me was Kathy Barnette, also a military vet. Nothing would drive the left more batshit crazy than a conservative black woman whom they have labeled left ‘Ultra MAGA’. Didn’t like that she stated she wouldn’t support either of the other 2 if she didn’t win. Course Trump endorsed Dr Oz.
On the donk side the the 6’8” Lt Governor John Fetterman, who usually campaigns in shorts and a sweatshirt, won the nomination. He finished 4th in the 2016 donk primary for Gov before winning Lt Gov in 2018. He did just suffer a stroke this week.
Governor
Conk side.
7 candidates (9 on ballot but 2 had dropped out). For me it came down to 2 Italians, former Rep Lou Barletta, and Douglas Mastriano, Pa state senator, retired colonel in the Army, and endorsed by Trump. Barletta had taken strong stances against illegal immigration back when he was mayor of Hazleton, and in Congress, and has pretty good conservative credentials. I was back and forth between the 2, and made a snap decision to go with Mastriano.
Donk side is Josh Shapiro, the state AG who ran unopposed in November.
Lt Gov
Conk side 9 candidates. I wasn’t familiar with any of them. Quick research I went with the apparently 6’4”/360, self described MAGA candidate, described as ‘far right’ by the msm, Teddy Daniels. Started at OG for WVU back in the 90s. Combat vet, purple heart ( (Afghanistan), retired PD. 2018 unsuccessful run for Congress in a redistricted district.
Donk side I have no idea who the candidates are.
——————-
Everything else local..
This litterally could come down to a few hundred votes out of over 1.3 million. The conk turnout was YUGE for a non POTUS yr primary (a record), dwarfing the donk turnout.
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2022/05/18 ... xt-n566450
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
"Do shut up, dear" Maddy.
Last edited by UNI88 on Wed May 18, 2022 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
I wouldn't get too excited about the turnout numbers. The two big conk races were crowded fields with no substantial frontrunner. For the Dems, Shapiro was uncontested for the governor's race and Fetterman was in no danger of losing for the Senate race. There wasn't a lot on the ballot yesterday that was worth showing up for if you were a Dem (I'm currently registered Democratic so I saw a pretty straightforward ballot). I still showed up and voted though.
With that said, I don't disagree that the GOP has an enthusiasm advantage right now. Not sure that translates to wins in November in these two big races - Mastriano still thinks 2020 was illegitimate and if Oz is the candidate he's a total wildcard of how he'll do in a general election. I think McCormick is the better general election candidate as Fetterman is a wildcard too, just more likeable than Oz.
And yes, the PA election system is terrible. But hey, it was only 3 or 4 years ago that we finally adopted a system where we could actually do a real recount. Before that it was just a lot of shrugging of the shoulders if we had to recount anything.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
I thought you said a while ago that you were registered conk because of local races)?GannonFan wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 11:53 amI wouldn't get too excited about the turnout numbers. The two big conk races were crowded fields with no substantial frontrunner. For the Dems, Shapiro was uncontested for the governor's race and Fetterman was in no danger of losing for the Senate race. There wasn't a lot on the ballot yesterday that was worth showing up for if you were a Dem (I'm currently registered Democratic so I saw a pretty straightforward ballot). I still showed up and voted though.
With that said, I don't disagree that the GOP has an enthusiasm advantage right now. Not sure that translates to wins in November in these two big races - Mastriano still thinks 2020 was illegitimate and if Oz is the candidate he's a total wildcard of how he'll do in a general election. I think McCormick is the better general election candidate as Fetterman is a wildcard too, just more likeable than Oz.
And yes, the PA election system is terrible. But hey, it was only 3 or 4 years ago that we finally adopted a system where we could actually do a real recount. Before that it was just a lot of shrugging of the shoulders if we had to recount anything.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
I bounce from one to the other. I changed in 2020 to vote in the Dem Presidential primary and haven't changed back yet. Locally things have changed in recent years and being a Democrat isn't the disadvantage it use to be for decades where I live now when it was completely dominated by the GOP. Very purple here now.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 12:09 pmI thought you said a while ago that you were registered conk because of local races)?GannonFan wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 11:53 am
I wouldn't get too excited about the turnout numbers. The two big conk races were crowded fields with no substantial frontrunner. For the Dems, Shapiro was uncontested for the governor's race and Fetterman was in no danger of losing for the Senate race. There wasn't a lot on the ballot yesterday that was worth showing up for if you were a Dem (I'm currently registered Democratic so I saw a pretty straightforward ballot). I still showed up and voted though.
With that said, I don't disagree that the GOP has an enthusiasm advantage right now. Not sure that translates to wins in November in these two big races - Mastriano still thinks 2020 was illegitimate and if Oz is the candidate he's a total wildcard of how he'll do in a general election. I think McCormick is the better general election candidate as Fetterman is a wildcard too, just more likeable than Oz.
And yes, the PA election system is terrible. But hey, it was only 3 or 4 years ago that we finally adopted a system where we could actually do a real recount. Before that it was just a lot of shrugging of the shoulders if we had to recount anything.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
So Oz was up over McCormick about 2500 votes thia morning. Update at 6:02 down to 1520..
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
9:07 PM update down to 1242..
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Z .....experiencing that not-so-fresh feeling...
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Had posted these in the 2024 Primary thread couple of weeks ago. Meant to post them here.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
The turnout is related to interest. Let's wait and see what happens in the general election with respect to relative White turnout to relative non White turnout. Also relative turnout rates for other groupings where one group can be expected to vote majority Republican while the other can be expected to vote majority Democrat.
Here is an example of an article on the kind of thing you should be looking for: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/ ... 0-election. A quote citing the 2020 election:
If the disparity is less than or equal to that during the general election, that will suggest that those complaining about the new voter restrictions are wrong. If it is greater than that, that will suggest that they are correct.70.9 percent of white voters cast ballots compared with only 58.4 percent of nonwhite voters — a disparity that will worsen with new restrictive voting laws.
What happened during these primaries really doesn't lend much insight into the question.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
That was the point, flying right over your head.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 7:11 pmThe turnout is related to interest. Let's wait and see what happens in the general election with respect to relative White turnout to relative non White turnout. Also relative turnout rates for other groupings where one group can be expected to vote majority Republican while the other can be expected to vote majority Democrat.
Here is an example of an article on the kind of thing you should be looking for: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/ ... 0-election. A quote citing the 2020 election:
If the disparity is less than or equal to that during the general election, that will suggest that those complaining about the new voter restrictions are wrong. If it is greater than that, that will suggest that they are correct.70.9 percent of white voters cast ballots compared with only 58.4 percent of nonwhite voters — a disparity that will worsen with new restrictive voting laws.
What happened during these primaries really doesn't lend much insight into the question.
Point being: If you want to fucking vote, you can vote. All this “voter suppression” bullshit is just red meat for the mouth breathers like you.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
She really doesn't want to win.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Long ways to go and history is obviously still in the Republicans favor as well as a recession. Still, an 8 point swing directly reflects on the crazy.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr ... -may-2022/47% of registered voters nationally say they will support the Democrat on the ballot in this year’s Congressional Midterm Elections. 42% think they will back the Republican. Support falls firmly along party lines. Independents break 41% for the Democrat to 37% for the Republican. Last month, prior to the leaked Court document, 47% of voters nationally supported the Republican candidate, and 44% supported the Democratic candidate.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Roe v. Wade is not going to matter much more than a percentage or two in the end (if that) once people realize it will only affect have an effect of a 12% reduction in abortions, as almost all states already have protections or restrictions in place.
Abortion is around 6th or so on things people are worried about (if memory serves me correct). Dems and their media lackeys are trying to make it a wedge issue, but after 50 years, Americans minds are pretty settled on where they as an individual stand. More importantly is where people think the economy is at and that is not looking good for Team Biden.
Abortion is around 6th or so on things people are worried about (if memory serves me correct). Dems and their media lackeys are trying to make it a wedge issue, but after 50 years, Americans minds are pretty settled on where they as an individual stand. More importantly is where people think the economy is at and that is not looking good for Team Biden.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/19/biden-job ... cent-poll/Three-fifths of US Hispanics dislike the job President Biden is doing, according to a new survey out this week — yet another sign of widespread discontent as Americans grapple with the ongoing border crisis, baby formula shortage and skyrocketing inflation.
The Quinnipiac University survey published Wednesday found that just 26% of Hispanics approve of Biden’s performance, while 60% disapprove and 13% said they did not know or had no opinion.
The survey interviewed 1,586 adults, including 132 self-reported Hispanics. The margin of error among the group was 8.5 percentage points.
Despite the small sample, the poll result marks a reversal from the fall of 2020, when Biden won Hispanic voters by a 2-to-1 margin over Donald Trump.
In addition, a similar survey done by Quinnipiac at this time last year found that 55% of Hispanic voters approved of Biden while only 29% disapproved.
A Republican lean among Hispanic voters, who make up roughly 12.5% of the eligible population, could prove disastrous for Democrats in the November midterms.
According to Wednesday’s poll, 48% of Hispanic registered voters said they wanted Republicans to take control of the House of Representatives, while just 34% said they wanted Democrats in power. In addition, 49% of Hispanic voters said they wanted the GOP to win the Senate, while 36% said they wanted Democrats to remain in control of the chamber.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Also seems like the Catholic Church is stepping in certain areas over the Demarcates push for unlimited abortion (Pelosi's archbishop orders her to stop receiving communion).
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour
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“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Lol
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 895349002/James Craig, Perry Johnson, 3 others ineligible for ballot, Bureau of Elections says
Former Detroit police Chief James Craig and businessman Perry Johnson, two of the top candidates for the Republican nomination for governor, didn't submit enough valid petition signatures to make the ballot, according to findings from the Michigan Bureau of Elections.
The bureau's revelations Monday evening shook up the 2022 race to be Michigan's governor, potentially leaving Republicans without their most well-known candidate, Craig, and without their wealthiest hopeful, Johnson.
If the bureau's reviews hold, five of the 10 candidates who submitted signatures to run for governor wouldn't make the ballot. Three other GOP candidates for governor were also found to have insufficient signatures: financial adviser Michael Markey of Grand Haven, Michigan State Police Capt. Michael Brown of Stevensville and entrepreneur Donna Brandenburg of Byron Center.
In a staff report, the bureau said it had tracked 36 petition circulators "who submitted fraudulent petition sheets consisting entirely of invalid signatures." The bureau said it was "unaware of another election cycle in which this many circulators submitted such a substantial volume of fraudulent petition sheets consisting of invalid signatures."
"In total, the bureau estimates that these circulators submitted at least 68,000 invalid signatures submitted across 10 sets of nominating petitions," the report said. "In several instances, the number of invalid signatures submitted by these circulators was the reason a candidate had an insufficient number of valid signatures."
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
Economic concerns aside (I agree), Roe goes beyond just the abortion issue but to a control issue. It’s a lower priority when it’s simmering and rights are not at stake. It also becomes a branding issue for the Republicans and they need every bit as much branding help with moderates as Democrats do.Winterborn wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 8:44 am Roe v. Wade is not going to matter much more than a percentage or two in the end (if that) once people realize it will only affect have an effect of a 12% reduction in abortions, as almost all states already have protections or restrictions in place.
Abortion is around 6th or so on things people are worried about (if memory serves me correct). Dems and their media lackeys are trying to make it a wedge issue, but after 50 years, Americans minds are pretty settled on where they as an individual stand. More importantly is where people think the economy is at and that is not looking good for Team Biden.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/19/biden-job ... cent-poll/Three-fifths of US Hispanics dislike the job President Biden is doing, according to a new survey out this week — yet another sign of widespread discontent as Americans grapple with the ongoing border crisis, baby formula shortage and skyrocketing inflation.
The Quinnipiac University survey published Wednesday found that just 26% of Hispanics approve of Biden’s performance, while 60% disapprove and 13% said they did not know or had no opinion.
The survey interviewed 1,586 adults, including 132 self-reported Hispanics. The margin of error among the group was 8.5 percentage points.
Despite the small sample, the poll result marks a reversal from the fall of 2020, when Biden won Hispanic voters by a 2-to-1 margin over Donald Trump.
In addition, a similar survey done by Quinnipiac at this time last year found that 55% of Hispanic voters approved of Biden while only 29% disapproved.
A Republican lean among Hispanic voters, who make up roughly 12.5% of the eligible population, could prove disastrous for Democrats in the November midterms.
According to Wednesday’s poll, 48% of Hispanic registered voters said they wanted Republicans to take control of the House of Representatives, while just 34% said they wanted Democrats in power. In addition, 49% of Hispanic voters said they wanted the GOP to win the Senate, while 36% said they wanted Democrats to remain in control of the chamber.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
The branding and control issue is intertwined for both parties on this issue. The branding and solution the R’s have been using since pretty much the beginning is that it is a State’s right issue and that Roe v. Wade needs to be overturned due to it’s constitutionality issues. This is why on the national level they have been pretty quite over the whole situation and while some States are gathering news for playing to certain elements of their constituents, this is only going to bother the individuals running in those particular states (believe there is 2 or 3 States that are looking at banning it from conception).kalm wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 6:38 pm
Economic concerns aside (I agree), Roe goes beyond just the abortion issue but to a control issue. It’s a lower priority when it’s simmering and rights are not at stake. It also becomes a branding issue for the Republicans and they need every bit as much branding help with moderates as Democrats do.
On the flip side, the D’s it started out and continued up until the Obama years, that it is not a State’s right issue but can be nationally (but for some reason (being sarcastic here) they never introduced a bill to codify it but left it up to the judicial system to define it) and that is a woman’s right to choose. Even Ginsberg said the way it was originally decided was a bit of a stretch. Under Obama the D’s stated to change their message from keeping Roe v. Wade to expanding it (while keeping the woman’s right to choose portion) into abortion on demand. The only reason I can think of why they changed is that they had good indications that Obama was going to serve two full terms and that Hillary would be elected, thereby ensuring the SC would stay in their favor. Then Trump was elected. One also has to take into account the States that are doing the opposite of the few red States and codifying abortion on demand (i.e. CA and I think NY).
How I see it is that the Republicans have a much smaller risk of exposure due to the fact that they can push it back on the States and say that they are sticking to their party roots and it is up to the voters in the State’s to make the rules, not the Party. The Democrats have a larger risk mainly due to their adoption of abortion on demand message and the fact this is not supported by the majority of the voting public. Moderate Dems are at risk due to the fact their party does not want moderates anymore, one either toes the line of the progressive side, or gets black-listed. In short, Moderate Dems have a yuuge branding issue here and on other topics. Throw in the “tone” of the democratic party these past few years (defund the police, etc.) and the fact that they have lost touch with the moderates of their base they are in a worse spot than the Republicans. Good news for them is that they have enough control in the media that they can try and whitewash their way out of it. Issue for them here is that all an R has to do is pull up the actual verbiage of the bills Pelosi or State D’s have introduced and ask whey they are more extreme than R v. W when they are on record stating all they want is what Roe v. Wade has outlined. As the recent Congressional hearings demonstrated, Pelosi’s bill for all practical purposes opening the door for infanticide, is a bit hard to explain and does not make for good optics.
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“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
You raise some fair points but let’s face it, branding isn’t as much about details, performance, or quality. It’s about messaging. The Dems are terrible about messaging. The old sound bite versus longsplaining. Simon Sinek’s “the why versus the what” if you will. Infanticidal baby killers versus a woman’s right.Winterborn wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 5:33 amThe branding and control issue is intertwined for both parties on this issue. The branding and solution the R’s have been using since pretty much the beginning is that it is a State’s right issue and that Roe v. Wade needs to be overturned due to it’s constitutionality issues. This is why on the national level they have been pretty quite over the whole situation and while some States are gathering news for playing to certain elements of their constituents, this is only going to bother the individuals running in those particular states (believe there is 2 or 3 States that are looking at banning it from conception).kalm wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 6:38 pm
Economic concerns aside (I agree), Roe goes beyond just the abortion issue but to a control issue. It’s a lower priority when it’s simmering and rights are not at stake. It also becomes a branding issue for the Republicans and they need every bit as much branding help with moderates as Democrats do.
On the flip side, the D’s it started out and continued up until the Obama years, that it is not a State’s right issue but can be nationally (but for some reason (being sarcastic here) they never introduced a bill to codify it but left it up to the judicial system to define it) and that is a woman’s right to choose. Even Ginsberg said the way it was originally decided was a bit of a stretch. Under Obama the D’s stated to change their message from keeping Roe v. Wade to expanding it (while keeping the woman’s right to choose portion) into abortion on demand. The only reason I can think of why they changed is that they had good indications that Obama was going to serve two full terms and that Hillary would be elected, thereby ensuring the SC would stay in their favor. Then Trump was elected. One also has to take into account the States that are doing the opposite of the few red States and codifying abortion on demand (i.e. CA and I think NY).
How I see it is that the Republicans have a much smaller risk of exposure due to the fact that they can push it back on the States and say that they are sticking to their party roots and it is up to the voters in the State’s to make the rules, not the Party. The Democrats have a larger risk mainly due to their adoption of abortion on demand message and the fact this is not supported by the majority of the voting public. Moderate Dems are at risk due to the fact their party does not want moderates anymore, one either toes the line of the progressive side, or gets black-listed. In short, Moderate Dems have a yuuge branding issue here and on other topics. Throw in the “tone” of the democratic party these past few years (defund the police, etc.) and the fact that they have lost touch with the moderates of their base they are in a worse spot than the Republicans. Good news for them is that they have enough control in the media that they can try and whitewash their way out of it. Issue for them here is that all an R has to do is pull up the actual verbiage of the bills Pelosi or State D’s have introduced and ask whey they are more extreme than R v. W when they are on record stating all they want is what Roe v. Wade has outlined. As the recent Congressional hearings demonstrated, Pelosi’s bill for all practical purposes opening the door for infanticide, is a bit hard to explain and does not make for good optics.
Long term performance issues are the same. To use an earlier point of yours regarding economics, if it was about performance the economic growth and deficit reduction of presidential administrations would decidedly work in favor of the Dems.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
I agree with your first paragraph. While the details are important, messaging (spin) is the key and IMHO why the Dem's are so bad at it has mostly to do with their crappy platform. One can only polish a turd so much..kalm wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 6:09 am
You raise some fair points but let’s face it, branding isn’t as much about details, performance, or quality. It’s about messaging. The Dems are terrible about messaging. The old sound bite versus longsplaining. Simon Sinek’s “the why versus the what” if you will. Infanticidal baby killers versus a woman’s right.
Long term performance issues are the same. To use an earlier point of yours regarding economics, if it was about performance the economic growth and deficit reduction of presidential administrations would decidedly work in favor of the Dems.
As for the second paragraph, a economic professor of mine (Democrat) put it quite clear to us in his class and it hold very true I think. Dems are a party of the short term (next election cycle) while Republicans are the party of the long term (3 or 4 election cycles). One has to only look at the last 40 plus years of Republican inroads into the judicial side of things to see this play out.
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“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread
No doubt. If only both/either party were into long term economic cycles.Winterborn wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 6:35 amI agree with your first paragraph. While the details are important, messaging (spin) is the key and IMHO why the Dem's are so bad at it has mostly to do with their crappy platform. One can only polish a turd so much..kalm wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 6:09 am
You raise some fair points but let’s face it, branding isn’t as much about details, performance, or quality. It’s about messaging. The Dems are terrible about messaging. The old sound bite versus longsplaining. Simon Sinek’s “the why versus the what” if you will. Infanticidal baby killers versus a woman’s right.
Long term performance issues are the same. To use an earlier point of yours regarding economics, if it was about performance the economic growth and deficit reduction of presidential administrations would decidedly work in favor of the Dems.
As for the second paragraph, a economic professor of mine (Democrat) put it quite clear to us in his class and it hold very true I think. Dems are a party of the short term (next election cycle) while Republicans are the party of the long term (3 or 4 election cycles). One has to only look at the last 40 plus years of Republican inroads into the judicial side of things to see this play out.