2022 Elections Thread

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by SDHornet »

UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:03 am New evidence shows GOP’s Trump problem may be getting worse
Trump remains overwhelmingly popular among Republican voters, but he’s just as unpopular with Democrats, and there is a growing body of evidence that he is losing more support from independent swing voters as he grapples with a slew of investigations.
...
And in another indictment of Trump’s standing with moderate voters, a New York Times-Siena survey conducted earlier in September found him trailing President Biden in a hypothetical rematch by 3 percentage points, despite just 39 percent of independents in that poll saying they approve of Biden’s job performance.
Not the most unbiased source but I think the point is accurate. trump's appeal with independent voters is dropping (and his MAGAts are more desparate in their defense/deflection). Add that to the abortion impact and the conks are in for a tougher fight than expected to win Congressional seats.
I saw something about abortion doings polling in favor of conks in PA. :twocents:
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:29 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:54 pm Reading comprehension is fundamental. This is the 2022 Elections thread. I posted because of the impact of trump (and abortion) on control of the House and Senate from 2023-2024.
:suspicious: You literally quoted a poll of Brandon v Trump 2024.
UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:03 am...And in another indictment of trump’s standing with moderate voters, a New York Times-Siena survey conducted earlier in September found him trailing President Biden in a hypothetical rematch by 3 percentage points, despite just 39 percent of independents in that poll saying they approve of Biden’s job performance.
If you don’t want to talk about 2024 in the 2022 thread, then don’t bring up 2024 in the 2022 thread. So yeah, reading is fundamental.
One, I linked to and quoted from an article, not just a poll. I quoted this first: "trump remains overwhelmingly popular among Republican voters, but he’s just as unpopular with Democrats, and there is a growing body of evidence that he is losing more support from independent swing voters as he grapples with a slew of investigations." The 2nd quote was supporting material, I can't help it that you're TDS is so bad that you get a wet spot thinking about trump running in 2024. ;)

Two, based on the thread I placed it in and my comments "Not the most unbiased source but I think the point is accurate. trump's appeal with independent voters is dropping (and his MAGAts are more desperate in their defense/deflection). Add that to the abortion impact and the conks are in for a tougher fight than expected to win Congressional seats", it should be clear to anyone with a functioning brainstem that this was about 2022 and Congressional elections.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Baldy »

Get ready for the sequel of the "stolen election" clown show from 2018. :nod:

Kemp widens lead over Abrams to 8 points in Georgia governor race: poll
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has expanded his lead over his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, to 8 percentage points in the Peach State’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll.

Half of likely Georgia voters in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released on Tuesday said they would support Kemp, while 42 percent said they backed Abrams.

The new survey differed substantially from a Quinnipiac University poll last Wednesday that showed the two competitors locked in a tight race, with Kemp holding a slim 2-point lead over Abrams. Kemp beat Abrams in the state’s 2018 gubernatorial race by less than 2 points.

The Atlanta-based newspaper’s poll found a bleaker outlook overall for Democrats in Georgia. While the state’s U.S. Senate race remained close, the survey showed Republican candidates leading Democrats across the board in down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Baldy wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:59 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:03 am New evidence shows GOP’s Trump problem may be getting worse



Not the most unbiased source but I think the point is accurate. trump's appeal with independent voters is dropping (and his MAGAts are more desparate in their defense/deflection). Add that to the abortion impact and the conks are in for a tougher fight than expected to win Congressional seats.
Interesting thread.

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Time is short but the trend for now continues to be moving towards the Democrats. The current 538 forecast has the Republicans as 72% chance favorites. That's not "no shot for the Democrats" territory. As it happens, that's about where Clinton was as the favorite over Trump on election eve 2017 (71.4%). Also, the last time i checked it...which I think was probably about a month ago...the Republicans were at 79%.

Meanwhile the Democrats are 70% favorites according to the 538 forecast to maintain control of the Senate. That takes into account the fact that a 50:50 Senate means Democrat control.

Of course i am wondering how any thinking person could vote to give what the Republican Party has become control of ANYTHING. But it is what it is.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Baldy wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:59 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:03 am New evidence shows GOP’s Trump problem may be getting worse



Not the most unbiased source but I think the point is accurate. trump's appeal with independent voters is dropping (and his MAGAts are more desparate in their defense/deflection). Add that to the abortion impact and the conks are in for a tougher fight than expected to win Congressional seats.
Interesting thread.

That hidden Trump voter thing is way overblown. In 2020 the candidate who led in the polls in 48 of the 50 States won the State. The exceptions were Georgia and Florida. Trump led narrowly in the Georgia polling and Biden won Georgia while Biden led narrowly in the Florida polling and Trump won Florida. The Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" projection on election eve had Biden winning the Electoral vote by 319 - 219 and he won it by 306 to 232. i guess you could say Trump support in key battleground States exceeded expectations but it wasn't by much except for Wisconsin.

The RCP averages under estimated how well Trump would do by 1.4 percentage points in Michigan, 0.6 in Arizona and 4.2 in Florida. But they over estimated him by 1.3 in Georgia and Pennsylvania was dead on .

I also think polls could under estimate Democrat voting likelihood associated with the abortion issue. I think the Kansas thing indicates that possibility. The polls actually made a "yes" vote on the "pro life" referendum a slight edge. But the "no" side won by 18 percentage points. It is very rare to see the polls be off by that much. And that time, with abortion on the ballot, they were way off on the "pro choice" side.

The lesson is that Democrats need to make sure abortion is on the ballot in the minds of potential voters.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:18 pm
Baldy wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:59 pm
Interesting thread.

That hidden Trump voter thing is way overblown. In 2020 the candidate who led in the polls in 48 of the 50 States won the State. The exceptions were Georgia and Florida. Trump led narrowly in the Georgia polling and Biden won Georgia while Biden led narrowly in the Florida polling and Trump won Florida. The Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" projection on election eve had Biden winning the Electoral vote by 319 - 219 and he won it by 306 to 232. i guess you could say Trump support in key battleground States exceeded expectations but it wasn't by much except for Wisconsin.

The RCP averages under estimated how well Trump would do by 1.4 percentage points in Michigan, 0.6 in Arizona and 4.2 in Florida. But they over estimated him by 1.3 in Georgia and Pennsylvania was dead on .

I also think polls could under estimate Democrat voting likelihood associated with the abortion issue. I think the Kansas thing indicates that possibility. The polls actually made a "yes" vote on the "pro life" referendum a slight edge. But the "no" side won by 18 percentage points. It is very rare to see the polls be off by that much. And that time, with abortion on the ballot, they were way off on the "pro choice" side.

The lesson is that Democrats need to make sure abortion is on the ballot in the minds of potential voters.
Yes, please do. :lol:

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Winterborn »

Baldy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm
Yes, please do. :lol:

Agree. The DNC (and RNC) are both their own worst enemy.

The Fetterman and Oz campaign's are also becoming interesting.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

Ron DeSantis' Martha's Vineyard stunt gives Republicans the midterm fight they crave and takes focus off Trump 2024 and abortion rights, GOP operatives say
But according to GOP operatives, the move also gave Republicans running for Congress the opportunity to home in on illegal immigration and border security, topics they've clamored to put at the center of this fall's midterm elections.
Fair point.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Winterborn »

UNI88 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:44 pm Ron DeSantis' Martha's Vineyard stunt gives Republicans the midterm fight they crave and takes focus off Trump 2024 and abortion rights, GOP operatives say
But according to GOP operatives, the move also gave Republicans running for Congress the opportunity to home in on illegal immigration and border security, topics they've clamored to put at the center of this fall's midterm elections.
Fair point.
Kind of hard to bury the story when the immigrants are dropped off in front of local news crews and then it gets reported locally, which then means it makes it harder for national news to do their normal bury and move. It also gets the whole border thing free press that it normally would not get outside of border states.

Top 10 Google searches are now:

1) Jobs
2) Taxes
3) Donald Trump
4) Wages
5) Ukraine
6) Firearms
7) China
8) Russia
9) Joe Biden
10) Border/Immigration

Some good analysis (I think) on what it means for both parties below.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/midter ... n-abortion
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

Winterborn wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:54 pm
Kind of hard to bury the story when the immigrants are dropped off in front of local news crews and then it gets reported locally, which then means it makes it harder for national news to do their normal bury and move. It also gets the whole border thing free press that it normally would not get outside of border states.

Top 10 Google searches are now:

1) Jobs
2) Taxes
3) Donald Trump
4) Wages
5) Ukraine
6) Firearms
7) China
8) Russia
9) Joe Biden
10) Border/Immigration

Some good analysis (I think) on what it means for both parties below.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/midter ... n-abortion
Right now it looks like a brilliant move. The Republican Party and 2022 candidates owe DeSantis for changing the focus.

What are the odds that trump gets upset that this takes the spotlight off of him and he or his minions take shots at it and DeSantis?
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:54 pm
Winterborn wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:54 pm

Kind of hard to bury the story when the immigrants are dropped off in front of local news crews and then it gets reported locally, which then means it makes it harder for national news to do their normal bury and move. It also gets the whole border thing free press that it normally would not get outside of border states.

Top 10 Google searches are now:

1) Jobs
2) Taxes
3) Donald Trump
4) Wages
5) Ukraine
6) Firearms
7) China
8) Russia
9) Joe Biden
10) Border/Immigration

Some good analysis (I think) on what it means for both parties below.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/midter ... n-abortion
Right now it looks like a brilliant move. The Republican Party and 2022 candidates owe DeSantis for changing the focus.

What are the odds that trump gets upset that this takes the spotlight off of him and he or his minions take shots at it and DeSantis?
Kushner already lobbed a volley.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by houndawg »

SDHornet wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:07 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:03 am New evidence shows GOP’s Trump problem may be getting worse



Not the most unbiased source but I think the point is accurate. trump's appeal with independent voters is dropping (and his MAGAts are more desparate in their defense/deflection). Add that to the abortion impact and the conks are in for a tougher fight than expected to win Congressional seats.
I saw something about abortion doings polling in favor of conks in PA. :twocents:
very well may be but independents swing national elections and soon we're going to be treated to Clarence Thomas' wife speaking to the Jan 6 committee, that should be entertaining af
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by houndawg »

UNI88 wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:24 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:29 pm
:suspicious: You literally quoted a poll of Brandon v Trump 2024.

If you don’t want to talk about 2024 in the 2022 thread, then don’t bring up 2024 in the 2022 thread. So yeah, reading is fundamental.
One, I linked to and quoted from an article, not just a poll. I quoted this first: "trump remains overwhelmingly popular among Republican voters, but he’s just as unpopular with Democrats, and there is a growing body of evidence that he is losing more support from independent swing voters as he grapples with a slew of investigations." The 2nd quote was supporting material, I can't help it that you're TDS is so bad that you get a wet spot thinking about trump running in 2024. ;)

Two, based on the thread I placed it in and my comments "Not the most unbiased source but I think the point is accurate. trump's appeal with independent voters is dropping (and his MAGAts are more desperate in their defense/deflection). Add that to the abortion impact and the conks are in for a tougher fight than expected to win Congressional seats", it should be clear to anyone with a functioning brainstem that this was about 2022 and Congressional elections.
It was :coffee:
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by houndawg »

Baldy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:55 am Get ready for the sequel of the "stolen election" clown show from 2018. :nod:

Kemp widens lead over Abrams to 8 points in Georgia governor race: poll
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has expanded his lead over his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, to 8 percentage points in the Peach State’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll.

Half of likely Georgia voters in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released on Tuesday said they would support Kemp, while 42 percent said they backed Abrams.

The new survey differed substantially from a Quinnipiac University poll last Wednesday that showed the two competitors locked in a tight race, with Kemp holding a slim 2-point lead over Abrams. Kemp beat Abrams in the state’s 2018 gubernatorial race by less than 2 points.

The Atlanta-based newspaper’s poll found a bleaker outlook overall for Democrats in Georgia. While the state’s U.S. Senate race remained close, the survey showed Republican candidates leading Democrats across the board in down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state.
As expected I'm sure - any kind of Blue victory would just be gravy in Georgia. :coffee:

Kemp winning and De Santis losing is still a huge win for Blue
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by UNI88 »

houndawg wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:17 pm
Baldy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:55 am Get ready for the sequel of the "stolen election" clown show from 2018. :nod:

Kemp widens lead over Abrams to 8 points in Georgia governor race: poll
As expected I'm sure - any kind of Blue victory would just be gravy in Georgia. :coffee:

Kemp winning and De Santis losing is still a huge win for Blue
Kemp winning is a huge win for Georgia and America. :coffee:
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:17 pm
Baldy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:55 am Get ready for the sequel of the "stolen election" clown show from 2018. :nod:

Kemp widens lead over Abrams to 8 points in Georgia governor race: poll

As expected I'm sure - any kind of Blue victory would just be gravy in Georgia. :coffee:

Kemp winning and De Santis losing is still a huge win for Blue
:lol: :lol: DeSantis losing. That’s a good one.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

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Baldy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:18 pm

That hidden Trump voter thing is way overblown. In 2020 the candidate who led in the polls in 48 of the 50 States won the State. The exceptions were Georgia and Florida. Trump led narrowly in the Georgia polling and Biden won Georgia while Biden led narrowly in the Florida polling and Trump won Florida. The Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" projection on election eve had Biden winning the Electoral vote by 319 - 219 and he won it by 306 to 232. i guess you could say Trump support in key battleground States exceeded expectations but it wasn't by much except for Wisconsin.

The RCP averages under estimated how well Trump would do by 1.4 percentage points in Michigan, 0.6 in Arizona and 4.2 in Florida. But they over estimated him by 1.3 in Georgia and Pennsylvania was dead on .

I also think polls could under estimate Democrat voting likelihood associated with the abortion issue. I think the Kansas thing indicates that possibility. The polls actually made a "yes" vote on the "pro life" referendum a slight edge. But the "no" side won by 18 percentage points. It is very rare to see the polls be off by that much. And that time, with abortion on the ballot, they were way off on the "pro choice" side.

The lesson is that Democrats need to make sure abortion is on the ballot in the minds of potential voters.
Yes, please do. :lol:

Abrams is correct in saying there is no heartbeat at six weeks. i would not say it is a manufactured sound. But it's not a heartbeat. If you think the abortion issue is going to work in favor of Republicans, you are kidding yourself. it is going to work in favor of Democrats. It may not be enough for them given everything else that is going on. But it is going to work in favor of them.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Here is yet another manifestation of what the Republican Party has become:

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... 1c46711999
Campaigning for a northwestern Ohio congressional seat, Republican J.R. Majewski presents himself as an Air Force combat veteran who deployed to Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, once describing “tough” conditions including a lack of running water that forced him to go more than 40 days without a shower.

Military documents obtained by The Associated Press through a public records request tell a different story.

They indicate Majewski never deployed to Afghanistan but instead completed a six-month stint helping to load planes at an air base in Qatar, a longtime U.S. ally that is a safe distance from the fighting.
I'll also say that no sane person would have voted for such a person after seeing his campaign ads. But the Republican base is now dominated by people who are not sane.

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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

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Winterborn wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:54 pm
Kind of hard to bury the story when the immigrants are dropped off in front of local news crews and then it gets reported locally, which then means it makes it harder for national news to do their normal bury and move. It also gets the whole border thing free press that it normally would not get outside of border states.

Top 10 Google searches are now:

1) Jobs
2) Taxes
3) Donald Trump
4) Wages
5) Ukraine
6) Firearms
7) China
8) Russia
9) Joe Biden
10) Border/Immigration

Some good analysis (I think) on what it means for both parties below.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/midter ... n-abortion
I think I would stick with polling. The obvious glaring example of what that is so is inflation. It's not among that top 10 and obviously it is at or near the top in terms of issues people are concerned about.

It'd be great if Jobs really were the top issue because Biden's term has been characterized by record job creation.

A relatively recent set of polling results on what the top issues are is at https://www.npr.org/2022/09/08/11215356 ... -elections. Inflation is number 1 and Abortion is number 2. There is a graphic there that I think indicates the 1, 5, and 7 ranked issues (inflation and immigration) work in favor of Republicans while the 2,3, and 4 ranked issues (abortion, health care, and the January 6 hearings) work in favor of Democrats. Issue 6, guns, appears to be pretty much a wash though the Democrats may have a slight edge there.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by GannonFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:28 pm
Winterborn wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:54 pm

Kind of hard to bury the story when the immigrants are dropped off in front of local news crews and then it gets reported locally, which then means it makes it harder for national news to do their normal bury and move. It also gets the whole border thing free press that it normally would not get outside of border states.

Top 10 Google searches are now:

1) Jobs
2) Taxes
3) Donald Trump
4) Wages
5) Ukraine
6) Firearms
7) China
8) Russia
9) Joe Biden
10) Border/Immigration

Some good analysis (I think) on what it means for both parties below.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/22/midter ... n-abortion
I think I would stick with polling. The obvious glaring example of what that is so is inflation. It's not among that top 10 and obviously it is at or near the top in terms of issues people are concerned about.

It'd be great if Jobs really were the top issue because Biden's term has been characterized by record job creation.
Problem is, you can't really talk about jobs without then also talking about wages. The drop in real wages over the past year or two due to the overwhelming inflation is not really something Dems would want to have to defend. Dems are going to run on Trump and abortion and hope nothing else comes up.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Here is another polling result reported at https://www.npr.org/2022/09/08/11215356 ... -elections suggesting the abortion issue will help the Democrats:

Image

I think it's safe to say that the Democrats who said they will be more likely to vote due to the decision will vote Democrat. i also think it likely that a substantial majority of the Independents who said that will vote Democrat.

Whether that will be enough is another question. But this is not the Republican slam dunk situation it was looking to be before the Dobbs decision came down.

Also the Republican primary voters have helped the Democrats with the candidates they've selected. Absolutely no doubt about that.
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

One thing i see in the poll reported at https://www.npr.org/2022/09/08/11215356 ... -elections, once again, is that a majority think Republicans are better for the economy. i just have to shake my head every time i see that. History provides no basis for thinking that is the case. The Great Depression started when a Republican was President and Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

Thinking Trump was the reason the economy was decent during the first three years of his term is ridiculous. It was just as decent during the previous 7 years when Obama was President. And the turnaround happened during Obama's administration rather than during Trump's.

The economy was great when Reagan was President. But the best economy of my 1957 - present lifetime was the one in place while Bill Clinton was President.

I just don't get how people who have been alive for any substantial period can perceive the Republicans as being better on the economy based on what they've lived through.

i used to vote Republican all the time. But it was for other reasons. I never thought the idea that they are better on the economy is valid. I think they have primitive, simplistic notions with respect to that issue. I think that if they had gotten their way over the past 100 years this country's economy would be a disaster. We have the economy we do largely because Democrats have been successful in having the government regulate it.

I think the Great Depression is the poster child for what to expect when Republicans get everything they want in terms of economic policy.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

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Baldy
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Re: 2022 Elections Thread

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:05 pm
Baldy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm
Yes, please do. :lol:

Abrams is correct in saying there is no heartbeat at six weeks. i would not say it is a manufactured sound. But it's not a heartbeat. If you think the abortion issue is going to work in favor of Republicans, you are kidding yourself. it is going to work in favor of Democrats. It may not be enough for them given everything else that is going on. But it is going to work in favor of them.
The same Johns Hopkins you have been jerking off to since the start of COVID is the same Johns Hopkins that says the heart of human embryos starts beating at the end of the first four weeks.

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Quit being stupid and pay better attention. I did not say abortion was going to work in the favor of Conks. I did say that it isn't going to be the savior to keep Donks from getting motorboated out of Congress.
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