2022 House Elections

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2022 House Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

I'll admit I was looking for a place to post yet more indications that this country has a problem with White voters without College degrees. But, what the heck, we'll be talking about the general topic of 2022 House elections so might as well start a more general thread.

Looked at the two most recent polls linked at the Real Clear Politics Generic Congressional Vote page (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7361.html).

The most recent is the YouGov poll (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/79n2jfbdep/ ... Report.pdf). If you do the math it's got White respondents with College degrees favoring Democrats by 43% to 41% while White respondents without college degrees favor Republicans by 55% to 28%. Don't see a breakdown of people with College degrees overall.

But the most recent NPR/Marist poll (https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-conten ... 0913-1.pdf) does have a breakdown of people with College degrees overall. In that poll, respondents with College degrees favor the Democrats by 50% to 34% while those without College degrees favored Republicans by 46% to 43%. White College graduate respondents favored Democrats by 50% to 40% while Whites without College degrees favored Republicans by 56% to 31%.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by AZGrizFan »

More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:47 pm More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
I suspect conservatives wouldn't be saying things like that if the situation were reversed. The other thing is that it hasn't always been this way. I have followed exit polling for many years and for a long time the vote among the college educated was pretty evenly split. Post grads pretty much always favored the Democrats but it was usually by something like 8 or 10 percentage points instead of something like 20 percentage points as it was during the 2020 House elections.

Unfortunately I have a hard time finding a complete record of House exit polls. But in 2004, for example, college graduates overall voted by 52% to 46% for Republicans and Post Grads only voted for the Democrats by 52% to 45%.

Litmus test? I don't know about that. But I don't think there is any question that there is a strong correlation between IQ and educational attainment. Not perfect. But very strong. I would be very confident in betting that if we could identify all the voters who are in the top 15% of the IQ distribution we'd find that they vote pretty overwhelmingly for Democrats. I'd guess something like 60% to 40% on a consistent basis.

The flip side is that I also would be confident in betting that those n the bottom 15% of the IQ distribution vote solidly Democrat as well. So if you were to take an average those two things would probably kind of cancel each other out.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:15 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:47 pm More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
I suspect conservatives wouldn't be saying things like that if the situation were reversed. The other thing is that it hasn't always been this way. I have followed exit polling for many years and for a long time the vote among the college educated was pretty evenly split. Post grads pretty much always favored the Democrats but it was usually by something like 8 or 10 percentage points instead of something like 20 percentage points as it was during the 2020 House elections.

Unfortunately I have a hard time finding a complete record of House exit polls. But in 2004, for example, college graduates overall voted by 52% to 46% for Republicans and Post Grads only voted for the Democrats by 52% to 45%.

Litmus test? I don't know about that. But I don't think there is any question that there is a strong correlation between IQ and educational attainment. Not perfect. But very strong. I would be very confident in betting that if we could identify all the voters who are in the top 15% of the IQ distribution we'd find that they vote pretty overwhelmingly for Democrats. I'd guess something like 60% to 40% on a consistent basis.

The flip side is that I also would be confident in betting that those n the bottom 15% of the IQ distribution vote solidly Democrat as well. So if you were to take an average those two things would probably kind of cancel each other out.
Yes, lots of word salad to admit that the liberal indoctrination that occurs in our colleges and universities is a relatively new phenomenon, only a generation or so.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:47 pm More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
I think that is a populist myth. I am a conservative philosophically. But I think conservatives need to start asking themselves if people who go to college tend to be more liberal because they are being indoctrinated or if they tend to be more liberal because of being more knowledgable. This thing of just knee jerk saying more educated people tend to vote Democrat is because "they're indoctrinated" is a cop out.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:19 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:15 pm

I suspect conservatives wouldn't be saying things like that if the situation were reversed. The other thing is that it hasn't always been this way. I have followed exit polling for many years and for a long time the vote among the college educated was pretty evenly split. Post grads pretty much always favored the Democrats but it was usually by something like 8 or 10 percentage points instead of something like 20 percentage points as it was during the 2020 House elections.

Unfortunately I have a hard time finding a complete record of House exit polls. But in 2004, for example, college graduates overall voted by 52% to 46% for Republicans and Post Grads only voted for the Democrats by 52% to 45%.

Litmus test? I don't know about that. But I don't think there is any question that there is a strong correlation between IQ and educational attainment. Not perfect. But very strong. I would be very confident in betting that if we could identify all the voters who are in the top 15% of the IQ distribution we'd find that they vote pretty overwhelmingly for Democrats. I'd guess something like 60% to 40% on a consistent basis.

The flip side is that I also would be confident in betting that those n the bottom 15% of the IQ distribution vote solidly Democrat as well. So if you were to take an average those two things would probably kind of cancel each other out.
Yes, lots of word salad to admit that the liberal indoctrination that occurs in our colleges and universities is a relatively new phenomenon, only a generation or so.
I am about to be 64 years old and people have been making that claim about colleges doing liberal indoctrination for all of my adult life. People like you need to come to grips with the fact that more knowledgeable people are more likely to vote Democrat and start asking yourself why that is so instead of going to the "liberal indoctrination" cop out.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:26 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:19 pm

Yes, lots of word salad to admit that the liberal indoctrination that occurs in our colleges and universities is a relatively new phenomenon, only a generation or so.
I am about to be 64 years old and people have been making that claim about colleges doing liberal indoctrination for all of my adult life. People like you need to come to grips with the fact that more knowledgeable people are more likely to vote Democrat and start asking yourself why that is so instead of going to the "liberal indoctrination" cop out.
More education <> more knowledgable. Particularly about the important issues facing this country. THAT is what someone on this thread needs to come to grips with.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

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AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:47 pm More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
Is that why you're a banker, Z? Because you got all Cs in high school?
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:49 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:47 pm More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
Is that why you're a banker, Z? Because you got all Cs in high school?
That’s only part of the reason. :coffee:
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:10 am
houndawg wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:49 am

Is that why you're a banker, Z? Because you got all Cs in high school?
That’s only part of the reason. :coffee:
:lol:

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Re: 2022 House Elections

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Nine of 10 most popular governors are Republicans, Biden less popular than least popular governor.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nine-o ... st-popular
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:58 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:26 pm

I am about to be 64 years old and people have been making that claim about colleges doing liberal indoctrination for all of my adult life. People like you need to come to grips with the fact that more knowledgeable people are more likely to vote Democrat and start asking yourself why that is so instead of going to the "liberal indoctrination" cop out.
More education <> more knowledgable. Particularly about the important issues facing this country. THAT is what someone on this thread needs to come to grips with.
I think it highly likely that there is an association between being more educated and being more knowledgable about the important issues facing this country. Do you REALLY doubt that? For instance, say you were to design a poll where people were asked questions pertaining to being informed about important issues. Do you REALLY doubt that people with college degrees would answer the questions correctly at a higher frequency than those without college degrees do? Be honest with yourself.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

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JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:41 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:58 pm

More education <> more knowledgable. Particularly about the important issues facing this country. THAT is what someone on this thread needs to come to grips with.
I think it highly likely that there is an association between being more educated and being more knowledgable about the important issues facing this country. Do you REALLY doubt that? For instance, say you were to design a poll where people were asked questions pertaining to being informed about important issues. Do you REALLY doubt that people with college degrees would answer the questions correctly at a higher frequency than those without college degrees do? Be honest with yourself.
Yes, I doubt it. You’re exhibit A, FFS.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:15 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:47 pm More of you hanging your hat on formal liberal education, like it's some kind of litmus test for intelligence. Living proof our universities pump out nothing but a bunch of indoctrinated idiots, for the most part.
I suspect conservatives wouldn't be saying things like that if the situation were reversed. The other thing is that it hasn't always been this way. I have followed exit polling for many years and for a long time the vote among the college educated was pretty evenly split. Post grads pretty much always favored the Democrats but it was usually by something like 8 or 10 percentage points instead of something like 20 percentage points as it was during the 2020 House elections.

Unfortunately I have a hard time finding a complete record of House exit polls. But in 2004, for example, college graduates overall voted by 52% to 46% for Republicans and Post Grads only voted for the Democrats by 52% to 45%.

Litmus test? I don't know about that. But I don't think there is any question that there is a strong correlation between IQ and educational attainment. Not perfect. But very strong. I would be very confident in betting that if we could identify all the voters who are in the top 15% of the IQ distribution we'd find that they vote pretty overwhelmingly for Democrats. I'd guess something like 60% to 40% on a consistent basis.

The flip side is that I also would be confident in betting that those n the bottom 15% of the IQ distribution vote solidly Democrat as well. So if you were to take an average those two things would probably kind of cancel each other out.
Can’t wait to see the results of the 2022 house elections. :nod: :nod: :nod:
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:41 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:58 pm

More education <> more knowledgable. Particularly about the important issues facing this country. THAT is what someone on this thread needs to come to grips with.
I think it highly likely that there is an association between being more educated and being more knowledgable about the important issues facing this country. Do you REALLY doubt that? For instance, say you were to design a poll where people were asked questions pertaining to being informed about important issues. Do you REALLY doubt that people with college degrees would answer the questions correctly at a higher frequency than those without college degrees do? Be honest with yourself.
When the highly educated are saying shit like men can have babies and other woke shit, then yes, definitely.
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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by AZGrizFan »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:57 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:41 pm

I think it highly likely that there is an association between being more educated and being more knowledgable about the important issues facing this country. Do you REALLY doubt that? For instance, say you were to design a poll where people were asked questions pertaining to being informed about important issues. Do you REALLY doubt that people with college degrees would answer the questions correctly at a higher frequency than those without college degrees do? Be honest with yourself.
When the highly educated are saying shit like men can have babies and other woke shit, then yes, definitely.
Men can menstruate. Denying science.
Men can have babies. Denying science.
There are 70 genders. Denying science.
Life doesn’t begin until the baby is born. Denying science.

But yeah, “follow the science” when it comes to global warming and vaccines. Educated idiots, the lot of ‘em.
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2022 House Elections

Post by LeadBolt »

The US has higher infection and death rates from Covid.

The US has higher vaccinated percentage of its population.

The US has had more shutdowns and face mask mandates.

The US has old public health leadership.

One has to ask what about our public health policy and guidance from our public health leadership is lacking.

What does the rest of the world know about science that our public health leadership either doesn’t know or ignores?

More Covid deaths under enlightened D’s than deplorable R’s.

Time for change.


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Re: 2022 House Elections

Post by Winterborn »

AZGrizFan wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:19 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:41 pm

I think it highly likely that there is an association between being more educated and being more knowledgable about the important issues facing this country. Do you REALLY doubt that? For instance, say you were to design a poll where people were asked questions pertaining to being informed about important issues. Do you REALLY doubt that people with college degrees would answer the questions correctly at a higher frequency than those without college degrees do? Be honest with yourself.
Yes, I doubt it. You’re exhibit A, FFS.
And funnily enough he proves your point when hy/hym posts on this topic.
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