Bidenflation and Shortage thread

[kalm]

Dumb as a box of rocks..

Well, on the bright side, it's good to see awareness dawning in the administration of their central role in unleashing the inflation monster onto ours, as well as the global economy. They certainly will continue to say things like "Putin" and "animal spirits" and stuff like that, but there's seldom been such a clear line from economic policies/legislation to inflation as what happened here. Still doesn't excuse the Fed's actions (or lack of actions) in also letting inflation get out of hand, but the reasons for inflation running away are pretty easy to see.

So this piece of the puzzle goes without saying? At least I never see it mentioned by neo-liberals…

[GannonFan]

Well, on the bright side, it's good to see awareness dawning in the administration of their central role in unleashing the inflation monster onto ours, as well as the global economy. They certainly will continue to say things like "Putin" and "animal spirits" and stuff like that, but there's seldom been such a clear line from economic policies/legislation to inflation as what happened here. Still doesn't excuse the Fed's actions (or lack of actions) in also letting inflation get out of hand, but the reasons for inflation running away are pretty easy to see.

So this piece of the puzzle goes without saying? At least I never see it mentioned by neo-liberals…

Once you let inflation get out of the barn, it's very hard to get it back in without crashing the economy. Problem is, everyone is aware of the inflation once it starts happening, and then it snowballs into a self-fulfilling nightmare as everyone starts making decisions and actions taking inflation into account. Businesses start charging more fearful that their suppliers will start charging more, which they invariably do. Owners start planning on having to pay their employees more so they start looking to increase profits to be able to pay more salary. People will start locking in high prices on things they buy in the future over time (like heating oil or propane) before the prices are even there on the fear that once they do get there prices will be even higher still. People will pay more for everything on the assumption that everything costs more (see the concern about food prices now and people being angry about Big Grocery).

Inflation fears build on inflation fears and in turn prompt more inflation. It's not terribly different than the cost of college debacle over the past 20 years - perception becomes reality. Again, it's the #1 reason why you, as an administration or the Fed, never ever let inflation get out of control. It's the #1 economic task to any government or central bank and Biden and the Fed absolutely blew it, and brazenly blew it with their adoption, at some levels, of modern monetary theory. Just as being paralyzed by stagflation was and is Carter's failed legacy, fumbling the economy and inviting in rampant inflation will be Biden's failed one as well. Someone else (hopefully someone still under the retirement age) will need to clean things up after 2024.

[kalm]

So this piece of the puzzle goes without saying? At least I never see it mentioned by neo-liberals…

Once you let inflation get out of the barn, it's very hard to get it back in without crashing the economy. Problem is, everyone is aware of the inflation once it starts happening, and then it snowballs into a self-fulfilling nightmare as everyone starts making decisions and actions taking inflation into account. Businesses start charging more fearful that their suppliers will start charging more, which they invariably do. Owners start planning on having to pay their employees more so they start looking to increase profits to be able to pay more salary. People will start locking in high prices on things they buy in the future over time (like heating oil or propane) before the prices are even there on the fear that once they do get there prices will be even higher still. People will pay more for everything on the assumption that everything costs more (see the concern about food prices now and people being angry about Big Grocery).

Inflation fears build on inflation fears and in turn prompt more inflation. It's not terribly different than the cost of college debacle over the past 20 years - perception becomes reality. Again, it's the #1 reason why you, as an administration or the Fed, never ever let inflation get out of control. It's the #1 economic task to any government or central bank and Biden and the Fed absolutely blew it, and brazenly blew it with their adoption, at some levels, of modern monetary theory. Just as being paralyzed by stagflation was and is Carter's failed legacy, fumbling the economy and inviting in rampant inflation will be Biden's failed one as well. Someone else (hopefully someone still under the retirement age) will need to clean things up after 2024.

The FED was created to lesson if not avoid severe financial crises and bank runs.

Undue corporate profit taking in a mixed economy with government guarantees against failure is still a driver of inflation in addition to other causes like supply chain issues, consolidation of wealth, etc. it ain’t all simply Biden.

[GannonFan]

Once you let inflation get out of the barn, it's very hard to get it back in without crashing the economy. Problem is, everyone is aware of the inflation once it starts happening, and then it snowballs into a self-fulfilling nightmare as everyone starts making decisions and actions taking inflation into account. Businesses start charging more fearful that their suppliers will start charging more, which they invariably do. Owners start planning on having to pay their employees more so they start looking to increase profits to be able to pay more salary. People will start locking in high prices on things they buy in the future over time (like heating oil or propane) before the prices are even there on the fear that once they do get there prices will be even higher still. People will pay more for everything on the assumption that everything costs more (see the concern about food prices now and people being angry about Big Grocery).

Inflation fears build on inflation fears and in turn prompt more inflation. It's not terribly different than the cost of college debacle over the past 20 years - perception becomes reality. Again, it's the #1 reason why you, as an administration or the Fed, never ever let inflation get out of control. It's the #1 economic task to any government or central bank and Biden and the Fed absolutely blew it, and brazenly blew it with their adoption, at some levels, of modern monetary theory. Just as being paralyzed by stagflation was and is Carter's failed legacy, fumbling the economy and inviting in rampant inflation will be Biden's failed one as well. Someone else (hopefully someone still under the retirement age) will need to clean things up after 2024.

The FED was created to lesson if not avoid severe financial crises and bank runs.

Undue corporate profit taking in a mixed economy with government guarantees against failure is still a driver of inflation in addition to other causes like supply chain issues, consolidation of wealth, etc. it ain’t all simply Biden.

Biden and his administration, along with a compliant Congress (because before the student loan forgiveness fiasco only Congress could spend money), along with an asleep at the wheel Fed, are all the instigators of this. You need a spark to light a fire, and their slavish devotion to modern monetary theory as the next new thing was what drove the incredibly excessive government spend (and I've always included Trump's smaller contribution to this with his own, albeit modest, bump in spend that he drove in his lameduck period in Dec 2020) that was the thing that opened the doors for inflation to run rampant. So yes, it ain't all simply Biden. He just happens to be the central figure in it all. You don't have undue corporate profit taking (which doesn't even have a definition) without inflation in the first place. Biden, et al, failed in their responsibility to avoid that.

[kalm]

[HI54UNI]

Comparing it to the prior year with all the pandemic related spending is stupid. The deficit was still $1.375 TRILLION. Good job Biden!

[kalm]

Comparing it to the prior year with all the pandemic related spending is stupid. The deficit was still $1.375 TRILLION. Good job Biden!

Still a step in the right direction…unlike the last 6 Republican terms.

[UNI88]

Comparing it to the prior year with all the pandemic related spending is stupid. The deficit was still $1.375 TRILLION. Good job Biden!

Still a step in the right direction…unlike the last 6 Republican terms.

JSO says it doesn't matter. The POTUS has very, very little impact on the economy.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[kalm]

Still a step in the right direction…unlike the last 6 Republican terms.

JSO says it doesn't matter. The POTUS has very, very little impact on the economy.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I agree with him to a point. There are many factors outside a presidents control and fiscal policy can take years if not decades to have an impact (both negative and positive).

[HI54UNI]

Comparing it to the prior year with all the pandemic related spending is stupid. The deficit was still $1.375 TRILLION. Good job Biden!

Still a step in the right direction…unlike the last 6 Republican terms.

Still the 4th highest deficit in history. 2020 and 2021 blow it away due to covid spending. 2009 was higher by $37B. A looooong way to go.

[kalm]

Still a step in the right direction…unlike the last 6 Republican terms.

Still the 4th highest deficit in history. 2020 and 2021 blow it away due to covid spending. 2009 was higher by $37B. A looooong way to go.

There is. But at least he’s cut it the last two years. IIRC his predecessor increased it ever year.

[Winterborn]

Comparing it to the prior year with all the pandemic related spending is stupid. The deficit was still $1.375 TRILLION. Good job Biden!

The deficit would have been less than $1 trillion except for his $426 billion loan forgiveness plan (tentative cost) and the biggest drop is from expiration from pandemic emergency programs (some of which Biden is looking at expanding and would have been permanent except for Manchin's opposition). There was also the $850 billion additional revenue in the fiscal year from taxes (Income tax rose 29% ($600 billion)). Takes are now 19.6% of GDP (last time they were this high was 1944 at 20.5% and 2000 at 20%). And this past Friday he was speaking out against R's for trying to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.

So yes. Great job Mr. President. Somehow I doubt he will be sending a Christmas card to Manchin for helping him "achieve" that number.

Just goes to show you a) why one shouldn't get their news from twatter, b) who the low information voters are.

[HI54UNI]

Supply Alert – October 25, 2022

East Coast fuel markets are facing diesel supply constraints due to market economics and tight inventories.

Poor pipeline shipping economics and historically low diesel inventories are combining to cause shortages in various markets throughout the Southeast. These have been occurring sporadically, with areas like Tennessee seeing particularly acute challenges.

Back in May 2022, diesel prices rose by $1/gal and supply dried up throughout the Southeast. Over the past few weeks, market volatility has begun to echo the challenges seen in April 2022, as we covered in FUELSNews on Oct 11 and Oct 14. Like before, markets are now seeing extremely high prices in the Northeast along with supply outages along the Southeast.

In many areas, actual fuel prices are currently 30-80 cents higher than the posted market average, because supply is tight. Usually the “low rack” posters can sell many loads of fuel before running out of supply; now, they only have one or two loads. That means fuel suppliers have to pull from higher cost options, at a time when low-high spreads are much wider than normal. At times, carriers are having to visit multiple terminals to find supply, which delays deliveries and strains local trucking capacity.

Because conditions are rapidly devolving and market economics are changing significantly each day, Mansfield is moving to Alert Level 4 to address market volatility. Mansfield is also moving the Southeast to Code Red, requesting 72 hour notice for deliveries when possible to ensure fuel and freight can be secured at economical levels.

https://mansfield.energy/market-news/su ... r-25-2022/

Inventories are the lowest since EIA started tracking in 1982. If you heat your home with fuel oil you better fill your tank now.

[BDKJMU]

2021
Jan: 1.4% (Biden enters office)
Feb: 1.7%
March: 2.6%
April: 4.2%
May: 5.0%
June: 5.4%
July: 5.4%
Aug: 5.3%
Sept: 5.4%
Oct: 6.2%
Nov: 6.8%
Dec: 7.0
2022:
Jan: 7.5%
Feb: 7.9%
March: 8.5%
April: 8.3%
May: 8.6%
June: 9.1%
July 8.5%
Aug 8.3%
Sept 8.2%
Oct 7.7%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ion-rates/

Bump. 7.7% in Oct. Now over 16% since Brandon entered office.

[kalm]

It’s not all bad.

Corporate profits are at a 70 year high.

[GannonFan]

It’s not all bad.

Corporate profits are at a 70 year high.

Source? Revenues or profit margins? Which industries? Surely you can go more in depth with this than just that.

[kalm]

It’s not all bad.

Corporate profits are at a 70 year high.

Source? Revenues or profit margins? Which industries? Surely you can go more in depth with this than just that.

Margins. Here’s one among several.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... since-1950

[kalm]

How Democratic establishment views economic populism and inflation reduction…

[houndawg]

The FED was created to lesson if not avoid severe financial crises and bank runs.

Undue corporate profit taking in a mixed economy with government guarantees against failure is still a driver of inflation in addition to other causes like supply chain issues, consolidation of wealth, etc. it ain’t all simply Biden.

Biden and his administration, along with a compliant Congress (because before the student loan forgiveness fiasco only Congress could spend money), along with an asleep at the wheel Fed, are all the instigators of this. You need a spark to light a fire, and their slavish devotion to modern monetary theory as the next new thing was what drove the incredibly excessive government spend (and I've always included Trump's smaller contribution to this with his own, albeit modest, bump in spend that he drove in his lameduck period in Dec 2020) that was the thing that opened the doors for inflation to run rampant. So yes, it ain't all simply Biden. He just happens to be the central figure in it all. You don't have undue corporate profit taking (which doesn't even have a definition) without inflation in the first place. Biden, et al, failed in their responsibility to avoid that.

What was his part in Turkey's 80% inflation?

[GannonFan]

Biden and his administration, along with a compliant Congress (because before the student loan forgiveness fiasco only Congress could spend money), along with an asleep at the wheel Fed, are all the instigators of this. You need a spark to light a fire, and their slavish devotion to modern monetary theory as the next new thing was what drove the incredibly excessive government spend (and I've always included Trump's smaller contribution to this with his own, albeit modest, bump in spend that he drove in his lameduck period in Dec 2020) that was the thing that opened the doors for inflation to run rampant. So yes, it ain't all simply Biden. He just happens to be the central figure in it all. You don't have undue corporate profit taking (which doesn't even have a definition) without inflation in the first place. Biden, et al, failed in their responsibility to avoid that.

What was his part in Turkey's 80% inflation?

The world's biggest economy (the US) has a profound effect on the rest of the world, especially smaller economies, like your example of Turkey. Seriously, whoever gave you that talking point knows extremely little about economics. At least stick with kalmie's schtick that inflation is all about corporations teaming up and coordinating massive price increases to make money. It ignores much that this administration did to make certain sectors of the economy untenable and also ignores the inflationary pressure of massive government spending in an already recovering and almost booming economy, but at least he has some data that says something as long as you ignore the details. Yours just exhibits no understanding of the world economy at all.

[houndawg]

What was his part in Turkey's 80% inflation?

The world's biggest economy (the US) has a profound effect on the rest of the world, especially smaller economies, like your example of Turkey. Seriously, whoever gave you that talking point knows extremely little about economics. At least stick with kalmie's schtick that inflation is all about corporations teaming up and coordinating massive price increases to make money. It ignores much that this administration did to make certain sectors of the economy untenable and also ignores the inflationary pressure of massive government spending in an already recovering and almost booming economy, but at least he has some data that says something as long as you ignore the details. Yours just exhibits no understanding of the world economy at all.

any astgrologer is as much an economist as you are

[GannonFan]

The world's biggest economy (the US) has a profound effect on the rest of the world, especially smaller economies, like your example of Turkey. Seriously, whoever gave you that talking point knows extremely little about economics. At least stick with kalmie's schtick that inflation is all about corporations teaming up and coordinating massive price increases to make money. It ignores much that this administration did to make certain sectors of the economy untenable and also ignores the inflationary pressure of massive government spending in an already recovering and almost booming economy, but at least he has some data that says something as long as you ignore the details. Yours just exhibits no understanding of the world economy at all.

any astgrologer is as much an economist as you are

From your viewpoint I'm sure that's how you see it, hence why we don't really go to you for views on the economy. It's all good.

[Pwns]

How Democratic establishment views economic populism and inflation reduction…

Donks are the Whole Foods party, not the Waffle House party.

[kalm]

How Democratic establishment views economic populism and inflation reduction…

Donks are the Whole Foods party, not the Waffle House party.

I’m not sure we live in the same country.

[UNI88]

How Democratic establishment views economic populism and inflation reduction…

Donks are the Whole Foods party, not the Waffle House party.

Until Amazon bought Whole Foods. They couldn't support a union-busting mega-corporation so they switched to Trader Joes.

I think of Waffle House, I think of redneck Conks.