Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:10 am A different take.

Comical. Sounds like more donk misinformation. It’s too much money chasing too few goods.

It ain’t rocket science and it ain’t evil corporations.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:12 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:12 am

Yes I took one economics class in college. I THINK I took one in high school but that's getting to be in the realm where I can't remember for sure. It's a good thing that whether I took one or not has absolutely nothing to do with the math involved because i remember absolutely nothing about it.

The CPI did not rise during July or August, 2022, after consistently rising at monthly rates that translate into annual rates way above what people would like to see during each of the previous 6 months of the year. That is just an objective fact.

Let's say there is 0 change in the CPI during the current month. That would mean three months during which the CPI declined slightly during the first two then was flat during the third. But if that were to happen, when the September, 2022, inflation rate is reported during early October, an 8% September inflation rate will be reported because the June, 2022 CPI was already 8% higher than the September 2021 CPI was. The CPI declined slightly during July and August, but not enough to bring the difference between September 2022 and September 2021 to below 8.0% to the nearest 10th of a percentage point.

I think that the overwhelming majority of the people who see something like the August, 2022, inflation rate reported as 8.3% interpret that to mean the CPI increased during August. They think it indicates that prices are currently rising at an alarming rate. And they haven't been. Again: The CPI has been flat for two months. The last two months have been different. I went back through through December 2020 - January 2021. The CPI increased during each of the 18 months January 2021 through June 2022. Now it has declined for two straight months. But, unfortunately for the Democrats, virtually nobody is going to realize that something has changed even if the same thing happens in September because of the way in which inflation is reported. They are going to see 8% and think the CPI is still increasing.

And all of that is true whether I ever took an economics course or not.
You mean the majority of MORONS. Inflation is reported year-over-year. Has been for decades. So when it was actually 15-16% on an annualized basis they got the benefit of it only being reported as 5-7%, and now that it’s finally slowed, they get the non-benefit of it being reported as 8.3-8.5%. The fact that it’s stopped going UP doesn’t change the fact that shit is 8.5% more expensive than last year, and about 14% more expensive than when Brandon took office, because don’t forget, the 8% # is on TOP OF the 6-7% increase in 2021.
I don't disagree with any of that (accepting that "Brandon" has become a popular term among those o the right for "Biden"). 14% is close for the increase in CPI since January, 2021 as the calculator I've been referencing puts it at 13.2% as of August. But I do think having a bunch of the people who are relatively in the middle politically know that a pattern of constant and significant month to month increases that started with January, 2021 (I'll have another post on that) stopped with July. That's what I think people are looking for. They're looking for the price increases to stop. And they have. Or at least they did during July and August. We'll find out about September during early October.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AzGrizFan caused me to look at when it looks like the excessive month to month increases started and I think the results call the idea that Biden caused the situation into question. The reason is that the trend started in January, 2021. I am defining excessive increases as monthly increases that translate into annual rates of >2% because 2% is the Fed's target.

The table below shows the month to month increases and what they translate into in terms of annual rate during the period September, 2020, through August 2022. Green highlight means the monthly rate translated into annual rate was <2%. What you can see is that the problem was first manifested in January, 2021. That was the first month of the period with a >2% increase over the previous month. But I think the idea that Biden could have caused the start of the trend is extremely questionable. He did not take office until January 20. No way he had time to have done anything to precipitate the monthly rate going from translating into 1.13% in December, 2020, to translating into 5.22% in January, 2022. I think it is unlikely he had time to do anything to cause it to go to 6.77% in February, 2022.

In any case, you can see that the monthly rate translated into a >2% annual rate for 16 consecutive months (January 2021 - June 2022). Then that pattern abruptly stopped in July 2022. i do note that there was also a dip in the rate during July and August of 2021. Maybe there is some kind of historical seasonal pattern that makes those two months tend to be lower. But I'd have do a lot more work to see if there is such a pattern. Might be that I would already know the answer if I was more familiar with the field of economics.

I also included a graph of the data. You can see how excessive month by month inflation occurred for an extended period then disappeared with July, 2022. Obviously this kind of thing is not going to be perceived by any substantial proportion of the voting public. To get it across, you'd have to spend a lot of time explaining. It's a lot easier to just say "SEE, August inflation was 8.3%!!!!'

BTW I can see a good reason for normally reporting it for the entire year ending in the given month. It is extremely variable when you project a yearly rate based on each individual month. And I think people that understand the situation can see that that the monthly increases have stopped for now. It's just a shame for the future of the country that the general public doesn't recognize it because it makes it more likely that a political party that has done a lot of harm to our country over the past few years and which is poised to do a lot more damage will gain control of Congress.

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:15 am
kalm wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:10 am A different take.

Comical. Sounds like more donk misinformation. It’s too much money chasing too few goods.

It ain’t rocket science and it ain’t evil corporations.
No, economics is not rocket science. It is far less certain. With respect to inflation: As has bee noted I am not an economist. But I can see that different economists have different views on the impact of government spending. See the discussion at https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo ... -inflation for an example of an economist who was then with Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and who thought government spending has little if any impact:
Across the board, we found almost no effect of government spending on inflation. For example, in our benchmark specification, we found that a 10 percent increase in government spending led to an 8 basis point decline in inflation. Moreover, the effect is not statistically different from zero.
And of course one can find economists who think otherwise. I've tried just looking at data myself to see if there is an obvious association between deficit spending as a percent of GDP and inflation rate in the United States. There isn't any on a year by year basis. I did see some evidence of an association if you lag 2 or 3 years so that you're comparing deficit spending in a given year to inflation rate 2 or 3 years later. But even then deficit in a given year accounted for only 7 percent of the variation in inflation rate two years later and only 8 percent in it three years later.

Now, i do understand that supply and demand is dominant in determining prices. Like for instance if we have a short supply of vehicles because of the microchip shortage so that demand exceeds supply motor vehicles are more expensive. But I have my doubts about whether the spending to respond to COVID-19 is the predominant factor in the inflation we've seen. I think it's very possible that the disruptions caused by COVID-19 are more of a factor.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

For JSO:

A) Inflation by definition is too much money chasing too few goods. REALLY REALLY high inflation is when the government pours gasoline on an already lit fire by printing money by the hundreds of billions and injecting it into an economy that already has a supply problem.

B) Brandon OWNS this shit. It started literally as soon as he was elected. And his administration has fucked up at every opportunity to tamp it down. His Fed waited a YEAR too long before raising rates, claiming (falsely) that the inflation was “transitory”. HIS administration passed more unneeded stimulus packages and trillion $$ spending packages all which poured more gasoline on the fire. HIS administration attempted to REDEFINE what a recession is, despite the fact it’s been an agreed upon definition for over 75 years. HIS administration’s transportation secretary felt it was more important to be on paternity leave than to do his fucking job and help try and solve the supply chain issues that continue to persist. HIS (and YOUR) party is the one that is forcing EV’s on everyone and killing the fossil fuels industry, despite the fact the average American can’t afford an EV and the average EV can’t/won’t operate effectively in about 75% of the country. HIS administration gleefully noted that the gasoline crisis would expedite the conversion to EV’s despite the fact that our electrical grid is nowhere NEAR ready to be able to handle a 5% increase in EV’s, let alone a 95% increase like is being mandated in California and other bluetarded states. HIS administration has downplayed the impact of the inflation, the cost of fuel, the cost of electricity, the cost of food (going up at the fastest rate since 1979, by the way) and the cost heating oil on the average American and continually spews misinformation regarding where we stand as a country regarding getting inflation under control. HIS Fed, after sitting on their thumps for 12 months too long, now has made THREE consecutive 75 bp increases, the three largest increases since 1994 and the fastest rate increase in HISTORY during rising rate periods. HIS inflation shut down pipelines, cancelled drilling leases, and demonized fossil fuels companies all while oil was spiking and people were getting killed at the gas pumps.

He owns it. Lock stock and two smoking barrels. And no amount of donk-like rewriting of history by you can change that.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:18 pm For JSO:

A) Inflation by definition is too much money chasing too few goods. REALLY REALLY high inflation is when the government pours gasoline on an already lit fire by printing money by the hundreds of billions and injecting it into an economy that already has a supply problem.

B) Brandon OWNS this shit. It started literally as soon as he was elected. And his administration has fucked up at every opportunity to tamp it down. His Fed waited a YEAR too long before raising rates, claiming (falsely) that the inflation was “transitory”. HIS administration passed more unneeded stimulus packages and trillion $$ spending packages all which poured more gasoline on the fire. HIS administration attempted to REDEFINE what a recession is, despite the fact it’s been an agreed upon definition for over 75 years. HIS administration’s transportation secretary felt it was more important to be on paternity leave than to do his fucking job and help try and solve the supply chain issues that continue to persist. HIS (and YOUR) party is the one that is forcing EV’s on everyone and killing the fossil fuels industry, despite the fact the average American can’t afford an EV and the average EV can’t/won’t operate effectively in about 75% of the country. HIS administration gleefully noted that the gasoline crisis would expedite the conversion to EV’s despite the fact that our electrical grid is nowhere NEAR ready to be able to handle a 5% increase in EV’s, let alone a 95% increase like is being mandated in California and other bluetarded states. HIS administration has downplayed the impact of the inflation, the cost of fuel, the cost of electricity, the cost of food (going up at the fastest rate since 1979, by the way) and the cost heating oil on the average American and continually spews misinformation regarding where we stand as a country regarding getting inflation under control. HIS Fed, after sitting on their thumps for 12 months too long, now has made THREE consecutive 75 bp increases, the three largest increases since 1994 and the fastest rate increase in HISTORY during rising rate periods. HIS inflation shut down pipelines, cancelled drilling leases, and demonized fossil fuels companies all while oil was spiking and people were getting killed at the gas pumps.

He owns it. Lock stock and two smoking barrels. And no amount of donk-like rewriting of history by you can change that.
:rofl:


nice rage-queefing Z.......didn't realize you were still carrying so much butthurt from the last election. :shock:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

Z’s response to Trump’s Fed Secretary’s handling of the market.

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:30 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:18 pm For JSO:

A) Inflation by definition is too much money chasing too few goods. REALLY REALLY high inflation is when the government pours gasoline on an already lit fire by printing money by the hundreds of billions and injecting it into an economy that already has a supply problem.

B) Brandon OWNS this shit. It started literally as soon as he was elected. And his administration has fucked up at every opportunity to tamp it down. His Fed waited a YEAR too long before raising rates, claiming (falsely) that the inflation was “transitory”. HIS administration passed more unneeded stimulus packages and trillion $$ spending packages all which poured more gasoline on the fire. HIS administration attempted to REDEFINE what a recession is, despite the fact it’s been an agreed upon definition for over 75 years. HIS administration’s transportation secretary felt it was more important to be on paternity leave than to do his fucking job and help try and solve the supply chain issues that continue to persist. HIS (and YOUR) party is the one that is forcing EV’s on everyone and killing the fossil fuels industry, despite the fact the average American can’t afford an EV and the average EV can’t/won’t operate effectively in about 75% of the country. HIS administration gleefully noted that the gasoline crisis would expedite the conversion to EV’s despite the fact that our electrical grid is nowhere NEAR ready to be able to handle a 5% increase in EV’s, let alone a 95% increase like is being mandated in California and other bluetarded states. HIS administration has downplayed the impact of the inflation, the cost of fuel, the cost of electricity, the cost of food (going up at the fastest rate since 1979, by the way) and the cost heating oil on the average American and continually spews misinformation regarding where we stand as a country regarding getting inflation under control. HIS Fed, after sitting on their thumps for 12 months too long, now has made THREE consecutive 75 bp increases, the three largest increases since 1994 and the fastest rate increase in HISTORY during rising rate periods. HIS inflation shut down pipelines, cancelled drilling leases, and demonized fossil fuels companies all while oil was spiking and people were getting killed at the gas pumps.

He owns it. Lock stock and two smoking barrels. And no amount of donk-like rewriting of history by you can change that.
:rofl:


nice rage-queefing Z.......didn't realize you were still carrying so much butthurt from the last election. :shock:
Just setting idiots like you and JSO straight. Like I’ve been doing on this site for years. :thumb:

And of course you can’t refute anything i said, so go ahead and attack the messenger. Fuckin’ pussy. :coffee:
Last edited by AZGrizFan on Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:26 am Z’s response to Trump’s Fed Secretary’s handling of the market.

He’s right. They know nothing. Purely politicized at this point.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:44 am
houndawg wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:30 am

:rofl:


nice rage-queefing Z.......didn't realize you were still carrying so much butthurt from the last election. :shock:
Just setting idiots like you and JSO straight. Like I’ve been doing on this site for years. :thumb:

And of course you can’t refute anything i said, so go ahead and attack the messenger. Fuckin’ pussy. :coffee:
somebody is a bit peevish today...touch a nerve did we? :coffee:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:45 am
kalm wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:26 am Z’s response to Trump’s Fed Secretary’s handling of the market.

He’s right. They know nothing. Purely politicized at this point.
:lol: Wharton?

Isn't Jabba the Gutt's alma mater...must be a real academic powerhouse
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

Wow, a lot of blah blah blah that gets us back to where we knew we were before - we have rampant inflation because we had too much money (i.e. money supply) chasing too few goods. So, classic inflation. And no, it doesn't trace back to George W or Reaganomics or any other made up reason why. It's simply because we had too much money in the money supply.

As for JSO's point, saying that it started in Jan 2021, I think we've already covered on here that Trump's push for one last COVID relief in December of 2020 was already unnecessary and a bad decision. But, it follows if the $900 billion COVID stimulus bill was bad policy and that it began to move the inflation needle, then the $1.9 trillion bill (yes, at least 2x bigger, although how much it actually a government stimulus actually is is normally higher than reported) that Biden and the Dems rushed through just 3 months later was an even bigger impact on inflation, which by then was already an incipient fire of inflation. And that doesn't even include other spending bonanzas that have gone on since, including the transportation bill, the semiconductor handout bill, and the spending that's originating from the White House (yes, we've bypassed that part of the Constitution now, spending bills can originate from the tip of Biden's pen) like the Student Loan Bailout that is at least $600 billion, but again, probably higher (some have it over $1T, but with it coming directly from the White House, it can bypass silly things like a budget estimate). So to recap - Trump dumping a lot of unneeded COVID relief to an economy already recovered from COVID in Dec 2020 - bad idea. Biden dumping something like 3x-5x more COVID relief even more months down the road - also bad, and much worse due to the much bigger scale and the much later in the timeframe of the onset of inflation.

And as for the dumb topic of why do we report year on year inflation rather than month to month. We always report both. But you can't say you want to do year on year inflation for the past year when the message was blunted by inflation just picking up (i.e. the month to month was crazy high even when people were laughing it off as transitory) and then, when the year to year numbers finally catch up wave your hand and now revert to just reporting month to month numbers. You can't just pick what gives you a better political message and only report that. That's the advantage of always reporting both - people paying attention have the full data in front of them and can see what's going on.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Winterborn »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:15 am
kalm wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:10 am A different take.

Comical. Sounds like more donk misinformation. It’s too much money chasing too few goods.

It ain’t rocket science and it ain’t evil corporations.
The only thing she has going for her (assuming it is not a parody of democratic talking points) is her tits. Kept hoping she would switch to a third person and show a bikini.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Winterborn »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:34 am You can't just pick what gives you a better political message and only report that. That's the advantage of always reporting both - people paying attention have the full data in front of them and can see what's going on.
:agree:

Both you and AZ's posts hit it right on the head. But the piece of your post from above is exactly what this is, multiple groups playing politics with the numbers and a news media that follows along like good little puppets.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:03 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:44 am

Just setting idiots like you and JSO straight. Like I’ve been doing on this site for years. :thumb:

And of course you can’t refute anything i said, so go ahead and attack the messenger. Fuckin’ pussy. :coffee:
somebody is a bit peevish today...touch a nerve did we? :coffee:
Says the guy who calls facts “rage queefing”. But I’m sure you’re the expert on queefing, so I’ll defer.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by houndawg »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:29 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:15 am

Comical. Sounds like more donk misinformation. It’s too much money chasing too few goods.

It ain’t rocket science and it ain’t evil corporations.
No, economics is not rocket science. It is far less certain. With respect to inflation: As has bee noted I am not an economist. But I can see that different economists have different views on the impact of government spending. See the discussion at https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo ... -inflation for an example of an economist who was then with Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and who thought government spending has little if any impact:
Across the board, we found almost no effect of government spending on inflation. For example, in our benchmark specification, we found that a 10 percent increase in government spending led to an 8 basis point decline in inflation. Moreover, the effect is not statistically different from zero.
And of course one can find economists who think otherwise. I've tried just looking at data myself to see if there is an obvious association between deficit spending as a percent of GDP and inflation rate in the United States. There isn't any on a year by year basis. I did see some evidence of an association if you lag 2 or 3 years so that you're comparing deficit spending in a given year to inflation rate 2 or 3 years later. But even then deficit in a given year accounted for only 7 percent of the variation in inflation rate two years later and only 8 percent in it three years later.

Now, i do understand that supply and demand is dominant in determining prices. Like for instance if we have a short supply of vehicles because of the microchip shortage so that demand exceeds supply motor vehicles are more expensive. But I have my doubts about whether the spending to respond to COVID-19 is the predominant factor in the inflation we've seen. I think it's very possible that the disruptions caused by COVID-19 are more of a factor.
Economists and astrologers are pretty much the same thing
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:46 pm
Uh, yeah. That's what inflation and a recession do to savings. Notice those really big jumps in Dec '20 and the bigger one in Mar '21. Nothing like pouring gasoline on a fire when it comes to government excessive spending in an already hot economy. But hey, that's the new model of liberal economic thought - government spending is free money, just print more. Genius. :ohno:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by BDKJMU »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 2:29 pm 2021
Jan: 1.4% (Biden enters office)
Feb: 1.7%
March: 2.6%
April: 4.2%
May: 5.0%
June: 5.4%
July: 5.4%
Aug: 5.3%
Sept: 5.4%
Oct: 6.2%
Nov: 6.8%
Dec: 7.0
2022:
Jan: 7.5%
Feb: 7.9%
March: 8.5%
April: 8.3%
May: 8.6%
June: 9.1%
July 8.5%
Aug 8.3%
Sept 8.2%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ion-rates/
Bump. 8.2%

Up over 15% since Brandon entered office.

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 6:33 am
BDKJMU wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 2:29 pm 2021
Jan: 1.4% (Biden enters office)
Feb: 1.7%
March: 2.6%
April: 4.2%
May: 5.0%
June: 5.4%
July: 5.4%
Aug: 5.3%
Sept: 5.4%
Oct: 6.2%
Nov: 6.8%
Dec: 7.0
2022:
Jan: 7.5%
Feb: 7.9%
March: 8.5%
April: 8.3%
May: 8.6%
June: 9.1%
July 8.5%
Aug 8.3%
Sept 8.2%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ion-rates/
Bump. 8.2%

Up over 15% since Brandon entered office.

FJB.
Weird economy…

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kalm
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

Powell wants wage deflation as a cure…

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:55 am Powell wants wage deflation as a cure…

Guess Biden has to get out there and lambaste the poultry farmers for being price gougers, tell them to only charge what it costs them to gather eggs and to raise chickens. Big Poultry must have a heckuva lobbying arm to not already be included in the price gouger group. :coffee:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Baldy »

Wait a got damn minute. Didn't Congress and Brandon pass the Inflation Reduction Act two months ago. What the fuq???? :?
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Dumb as a box of rocks.. :rofl:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:12 am Dumb as a box of rocks.. :rofl:
Well, on the bright side, it's good to see awareness dawning in the administration of their central role in unleashing the inflation monster onto ours, as well as the global economy. They certainly will continue to say things like "Putin" and "animal spirits" and stuff like that, but there's seldom been such a clear line from economic policies/legislation to inflation as what happened here. Still doesn't excuse the Fed's actions (or lack of actions) in also letting inflation get out of hand, but the reasons for inflation running away are pretty easy to see.
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