Bullish or Bearish on America?

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Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by kalm »

Another fine screed from Scott Galloway. Government can provide positive outcomes. Capitalism isn’t bad. Striking the right balance is the challenge we’ve been able to mostly overcome in the past. Will trust in government institutions increase?
Optimists are overrated. With Big Tech, Covid-19, or Putin, would we have been better off listening to the optimists or the pessimists? People think it takes optimism to be an entrepreneur. Not so — in my case, it just required the self-awareness to know I didn’t have the skills to succeed in a big company. Optimism is required to be an early stage investor, however. I typically invest in later stage growth firms, as my reaction to every startup idea is “there’s NFW that will work.”

I believe pessimists make better operators. I, no joke, sit awake at night and imagine everything that can go wrong in my firm(s). Then I start emailing people to ensure it won’t. On a livestream last night with two other entrepreneurs, someone asked about our management styles. The other two panelists gave Hallmark Channel answers about helping people find their purpose and encouraging failure and some other bullshit. Then it was my turn.

“I’m fucking all over everybody all the fucking time.”

Awkward..........

If you’re looking for justice in the corporate world, you’re going to be disappointed. It’s tempting to put successful business leaders or political figures on a pedestal and mistake adulation for analysis. The lack of realism in our country has been damaging. We gave Donald Trump, Sheryl Sandberg, 3D printing, and Hayden Christensen the benefit of the doubt. And we were wrong. The next casualty of our optimism? The midlife-crisis-fueled ascent of … private space travel. Tourists/explorers to space/Mars will be disappointed/dead, respectively. Worse, they will produce poor shareholder returns.

However, recently, I’ve been experiencing an alien sensation. I hate the world/myself/everyone … less. I’m still bearish on space travel, but at sea level, things feel … better.

Back in March, on the one-year anniversary of Covid going global, I published an ode to pessimism in the Economist. America’s maladroit response to the pandemic, I argued, was a symptom of a deeper issue: We’ve lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism. The result “is rising inequality, decreased economic mobility and an economy that has gone from dysfunctional to dystopic in 12 months.” Yep, that sounds like me.

This frustration with the feeble American pandemic response was rooted in the knowledge that we’re capable of much better. Since WWII, the U.S. federal government has been the most powerful player on the global stage and the catalyst for some of the century’s key successes, from the Marshall Plan to the eradication of smallpox to the internet.

You’re likely reading this newsletter on the product of two generations of government accomplishments. As economist Mariana Mazzucato has shown, the iPhone is a museum of government-funded research: DARPA pioneered voice-controlled AI, the Air Force developed GPS — almost every piece of its technology has the government behind it.
https://www.profgalloway.com/a-reluctant-optimist/
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Pwns »

I fear we're going in the exact opposite direction we went when Sputnik was launched.

Serious countries don't self-flagellate about science and it's institutions being "systemically racist" and get rid of standardized tests and accelerated math and science options in schools.

Combine that with a corporate culture that cares less about innovation and you've got a gradual decline in the country.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Ivytalk »

Of course Galloway is optimistic. His piece is a paean to Big Government, which is on the march in this country. He probably has a nude photo of Lina Khan on his office wall. Hail, FTC! Hail, IRS! Break up Big Tech! You didn’t build that! Replace the Ten Commandments with the Sherman Act! Life is good!
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by UNI88 »

Pwns wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:27 pm I fear we're going in the exact opposite direction we went when Sputnik was launched.

Serious countries don't self-flagellate about science and it's institutions being "systemically racist" and get rid of standardized tests and accelerated math and science options in schools.

Combine that with a corporate culture that cares less about innovation and you've got a gradual decline in the country.
A piece comparing current shifts in the US to the decline of ancient Rome could be interesting.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by CID1990 »

"The feeling that the government should “do something” has seldom been based on a comparison of what actually happens when government does and when it does not “do something."

Thomas Sowell
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by AZGrizFan »

....a misguided obsession with individualism....

I stopped reading right there.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by UNI88 »

AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:59 pm ....a misguided obsession with individualism....

I stopped reading right there.
I'm assuming it's the right that has "lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism". If that's so, hasn't the left lost respect for individualism, in favor of a misguided obsession with the role of civil institutions?

The author assumes that his beliefs are truth and his cause is just.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by kalm »

Ivytalk wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:38 pm Of course Galloway is optimistic. His piece is a paean to Big Government, which is on the march in this country. He probably has a nude photo of Lina Khan on his office wall. Hail, FTC! Hail, IRS! Break up Big Tech! You didn’t build that! Replace the Ten Commandments with the Sherman Act! Life is good!
That sounds wonderful! :lol:
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:20 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:59 pm ....a misguided obsession with individualism....

I stopped reading right there.
I'm assuming it's the right that has "lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism". If that's so, hasn't the left lost respect for individualism, in favor of a misguided obsession with the role of civil institutions?

The author assumes that his beliefs are truth and his cause is just.
Yes the left has. That’s why I opened with the importance of striking a balance. Economically, we have been mostly neo-liberal for decades. Some have benefitted, many have not thus the motivation in turning to government in a ironic a negative feedback loop of our own creation.

Not enough crumbs and the peasants are hungry. Agree with Galloway or not, it’s coming down the pike. But we’ve somehow survived this swing before.

‘And the objectivists gnashed their terrible teeth, and rolled their terrible eyes...’
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by UNI88 »

kalm wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 6:49 pm
UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:20 pm
I'm assuming it's the right that has "lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism". If that's so, hasn't the left lost respect for individualism, in favor of a misguided obsession with the role of civil institutions?

The author assumes that his beliefs are truth and his cause is just.
Yes the left has. That’s why I opened with the importance of striking a balance. Economically, we have been mostly neo-liberal for decades. Some have benefitted greatly, many have not benefited as much as they think they were entitled to, thus the motivation in turning to government in a ironic a negative feedback loop of our own creation.

Not enough crumbs and the peasants are hungry. Agree with Galloway or not, it’s coming down the pike. But we’ve somehow survived this swing before.

‘And the objectivists gnashed their terrible teeth, and rolled their terrible eyes...’
FYP
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by AZGrizFan »

UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:20 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:59 pm ....a misguided obsession with individualism....

I stopped reading right there.
I'm assuming it's the right that has "lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism". If that's so, hasn't the left lost respect for individualism, in favor of a misguided obsession with the role of civil institutions?

The author assumes that his beliefs are truth and his cause is just.
As any good liberal does.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Ibanez »

I'm bullish. Bought in at 2020, expect some breakout around 2024 and will take profits starting at 2025.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:22 pm
UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:20 pm

I'm assuming it's the right that has "lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism". If that's so, hasn't the left lost respect for individualism, in favor of a misguided obsession with the role of civil institutions?

The author assumes that his beliefs are truth and his cause is just.
As any good liberal does.
Whereas you question the truth of your convictions and justice of your cause?

Got it!
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Baldy »

UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:20 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:59 pm ....a misguided obsession with individualism....

I stopped reading right there.
I'm assuming it's the right that has "lost respect for the role of civil institutions, in favor of a misguided obsession with individualism". If that's so, hasn't the left lost respect for individualism, in favor of a misguided obsession with the role of civil institutions?

The author assumes that his beliefs are truth and his cause is just.
To be honest, the Left (especially the 'progressive' Left) has never valued or had respect for the individual, and that it is only being accelerated in today's world.

They look at your group identity instead of who you are as an individual.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Skjellyfetti »

It sounds like you're judging people on the Left based on their group identity and not valuing or respecting who they are as an individual.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Baldy »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:42 am It sounds like you're judging people on the Left based on their group identity and not valuing or respecting who they are as an individual.
:lol:
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by AZGrizFan »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:42 am It sounds like you're judging people on the Left based on their group identity and not valuing or respecting who they are as an individual.
why should we? They don't....
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:11 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:22 pm

As any good liberal does.
Whereas you question the truth of your convictions and justice of your cause?

Got it!
Every day. :nod: :nod:
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Ibanez »

AZGrizFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:57 am
Skjellyfetti wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:42 am It sounds like you're judging people on the Left based on their group identity and not valuing or respecting who they are as an individual.
why should we? They don't....
Just b/c one group acts inappropriately doesn't mean you have to. Wrongful, immature, idiotic, criminal and/or crazy acts from one group doesn't give another group a free pass to do the same. You lose the higher ground when you engage in the same BS that you're complaining about.

How can I possibly have any moral standing to say you shouldn't do X when i'll engage in it myself?
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by GannonFan »

UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:04 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 6:49 pm

Yes the left has. That’s why I opened with the importance of striking a balance. Economically, we have been mostly neo-liberal for decades. Some have benefitted greatly, many have not benefited as much as they think they were entitled to, thus the motivation in turning to government in a ironic a negative feedback loop of our own creation.

Not enough crumbs and the peasants are hungry. Agree with Galloway or not, it’s coming down the pike. But we’ve somehow survived this swing before.

‘And the objectivists gnashed their terrible teeth, and rolled their terrible eyes...’
FYP
Good fix. Kalmie's post would have you think we're on the verge of shanty towns popping up everywhere and Depression-era soup lines opening up. Income inequality has grown, there's no doubt about that, but that's happened every time there's an economic expansion, like what we've experienced for the past several decades. The only time that we manage to shrink income inequality is when there is an economic downturn or recession. I'm not sure how you get around this phenomenon - if the economy grows and everyone sees a 10% increase in income, the income inequality will grow - 10% of a bigger number is going to be 10% of a smaller number. Math and all. Seems odd to be rooting for an economic collapse just so we can get better income equality.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by AZGrizFan »

Ibanez wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:03 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:57 am

why should we? They don't....
Just b/c one group acts inappropriately doesn't mean you have to. Wrongful, immature, idiotic, criminal and/or crazy acts from one group doesn't give another group a free pass to do the same. You lose the higher ground when you engage in the same BS that you're complaining about.

How can I possibly have any moral standing to say you shouldn't do X when i'll engage in it myself?
THAT is quite the extrapolation. I simply asked why should WE respect them as individuals when they don't themselves.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by AZGrizFan »

GannonFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:16 am
UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:04 pm

FYP
Good fix. Kalmie's post would have you think we're on the verge of shanty towns popping up everywhere and Depression-era soup lines opening up. Income inequality has grown, there's no doubt about that, but that's happened every time there's an economic expansion, like what we've experienced for the past several decades. The only time that we manage to shrink income inequality is when there is an economic downturn or recession. I'm not sure how you get around this phenomenon - if the economy grows and everyone sees a 10% increase in income, the income inequality will grow - 10% of a bigger number is going to be 10% of a smaller number. Math and all. Seems odd to be rooting for an economic collapse just so we can get better income equality.
Math IS confusing to most folks. Remember, people wouldn't buy DQ's 1/3 lb burger because most people thought McDonalds' 1/4-lb burger was bigger. 1/4 bigger than 1/3. Makes total sense.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by UNI88 »

GannonFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:16 am
UNI88 wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:04 pm
FYP
Good fix. Kalmie's post would have you think we're on the verge of shanty towns popping up everywhere and Depression-era soup lines opening up. Income inequality has grown, there's no doubt about that, but that's happened every time there's an economic expansion, like what we've experienced for the past several decades. The only time that we manage to shrink income inequality is when there is an economic downturn or recession. I'm not sure how you get around this phenomenon - if the economy grows and everyone sees a 10% increase in income, the income inequality will grow - 10% of a bigger number is going to be 10% of a smaller number. Math and all. Seems odd to be rooting for an economic collapse just so we can get better income equality.
:nod: The income gap might be greater but the poor are better off today than they were in the past.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Ibanez »

AZGrizFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:33 am
Ibanez wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:03 am

Just b/c one group acts inappropriately doesn't mean you have to. Wrongful, immature, idiotic, criminal and/or crazy acts from one group doesn't give another group a free pass to do the same. You lose the higher ground when you engage in the same BS that you're complaining about.

How can I possibly have any moral standing to say you shouldn't do X when i'll engage in it myself?
THAT is quite the extrapolation. I simply asked why should WE respect them as individuals when they don't themselves.
I read it the other way. Apologies if that's not what you meant.
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Re: Bullish or Bearish on America?

Post by Ibanez »

AZGrizFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:35 am
GannonFan wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:16 am

Good fix. Kalmie's post would have you think we're on the verge of shanty towns popping up everywhere and Depression-era soup lines opening up. Income inequality has grown, there's no doubt about that, but that's happened every time there's an economic expansion, like what we've experienced for the past several decades. The only time that we manage to shrink income inequality is when there is an economic downturn or recession. I'm not sure how you get around this phenomenon - if the economy grows and everyone sees a 10% increase in income, the income inequality will grow - 10% of a bigger number is going to be 10% of a smaller number. Math and all. Seems odd to be rooting for an economic collapse just so we can get better income equality.
Math IS confusing to most folks. Remember, people wouldn't buy DQ's 1/3 lb burger because most people thought McDonalds' 1/4-lb burger was bigger. 1/4 bigger than 1/3. Makes total sense.
That is such a depressing fact. :ohno: My 6 yr old understands that 1/4 is smaller.
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