A Vexing Question for Democrats

[Col Hogan]

Hispanic males are moving right, and Democrat analysts (and JohnStOnge) are at a loss to explain it since they are constantly predicting states like Texas will soon turn blue because of the Team Brown vote..,

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/p ... 1MpKXmbwct

[AshevilleApp]

Build a border fence.

[Pwns]

I seriously wonder if your average Donk operative or politician has spent any time with your average blue-collar Joe Sixpack (white, black, or brown). They DGAF about the diversity of Fortune 500 executives or gender-neutral schools and multiculturalism and most (even most of the black ones and mny of the brown ones) don't love mass illegal immigration of low-skilled immigrants.

It's Simple: The Democrats are the party of woke liberal suburbanites and Hollywood leftism and they will keep gradually leaking the minority vote until that stops.

[andy7171]

In my experience, the legal immigrants can't stand the illegal ones. And the left is pushing hard opposite, it's only natural for the ones who did it correctly to side on the opposing side.

[89Hen]

In my experience, the legal immigrants can't stand the illegal ones.

+1000

I have seen it first hand as well. Many team brown folks I know fly GOP colors.

[Ibanez]

In my experience, the legal immigrants can't stand the illegal ones. And the left is pushing hard opposite, it's only natural for the ones who did it correctly to side on the opposing side.

Same here. I agree 100% with you - it's only natural for those that did everything right to resent those that are getting a free pass or easier pathway towards legal status.

[GannonFan]

In my experience, the legal immigrants can't stand the illegal ones. And the left is pushing hard opposite, it's only natural for the ones who did it correctly to side on the opposing side.

Same here. I agree 100% with you - it's only natural for those that did everything right to resent those that are getting a free pass or easier pathway towards legal status.

Same argument is shaping up for those who had student loans and paid them back versus those who still have student loans and are pushing for loans to be forgiven by the government.

[AZGrizFan]

Same here. I agree 100% with you - it's only natural for those that did everything right to resent those that are getting a free pass or easier pathway towards legal status.

Same argument is shaping up for those who had student loans and paid them back versus those who still have student loans and are pushing for loans to be forgiven by the government.

for every action there is an equal and opposite REaction.

[Ibanez]

Same here. I agree 100% with you - it's only natural for those that did everything right to resent those that are getting a free pass or easier pathway towards legal status.

Same argument is shaping up for those who had student loans and paid them back versus those who still have student loans and are pushing for loans to be forgiven by the government.

There sure is. I have student loans and have been able to pay them back. It'd be nice to them eliminated but I'm able to make the payments and i'm so close to that 10yr mark where the rest is forgiven (and taxed as income).

[kalm]

I seriously wonder if your average Donk operative or politician has spent any time with your average blue-collar Joe Sixpack (white, black, or brown). They DGAF about the diversity of Fortune 500 executives or gender-neutral schools and multiculturalism and most (even most of the black ones and mny of the brown ones) don't love mass illegal immigration of low-skilled immigrants.

It's Simple: The Democrats are the party of woke liberal suburbanites and Hollywood leftism and they will keep gradually leaking the minority vote until that stops.

Texas will turn blue more because of generational demographics. That will create an interesting mix of freedom and progressivism. It’s already started with California ex-pats.

[Col Hogan]

I seriously wonder if your average Donk operative or politician has spent any time with your average blue-collar Joe Sixpack (white, black, or brown). They DGAF about the diversity of Fortune 500 executives or gender-neutral schools and multiculturalism and most (even most of the black ones and mny of the brown ones) don't love mass illegal immigration of low-skilled immigrants.

It's Simple: The Democrats are the party of woke liberal suburbanites and Hollywood leftism and they will keep gradually leaking the minority vote until that stops.

Texas will turn blue more because of generational demographics. That will create an interesting mix of freedom and progressivism. It’s already started with California ex-pats.

That has been the popular Donk/JohnStWrong theory for a while...but there is a growing body of evidence that more of those California ex-pats moving to Texas are people of the conservative persuasion that are fleeing an unfixable system...

https://news.yahoo.com/california-conse ... 17543.html

[JohnStOnge]

Hispanic males are moving right, and Democrat analysts (and JohnStOnge) are at a loss to explain it since they are constantly predicting states like Texas will soon turn blue because of the Team Brown vote..,

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/p ... 1MpKXmbwct

I'd have to get a subscription to read the article so I can't see the data they are using to support the premise, but I think the premise is probably false. I don't think there is any consistent trend whereby Hispanic males are moving to the right.

Unfortunately exit polling data precise enough to tell you how each sex among Hispanics voted are not easy to find. But one can readily see that there is no trend over the history of exit polling towards Hispanics in general moving to the right. There is quite a bit of variability.

The 32% Trump got among Hispanics in 2020 wasn't bad. But it was 5th highest overall among the 12 Presidential elections held since exit polling started in 1976. Reagan got 37% and 34% among Hispanics in 1980 and 1984. H.W. Bush got 35% and 44% in 2000 and 2004.

McCain got 31% running against Obama. I guarantee you, Trump would not have gotten 31% running against Obama.

Anyway, when you look at it overall, there isn't any significant trend. The average is 30. Trump got 29 in 2016 and 32 in 2020. So OK he got slightly above average in 2020. But that's not remarkable (except one can argue that it's remarkable that he didn't crash with Hispanics and go way below average because of his personal characteristics).

Yes, that is all Hispanics and not just males. But what it tells you is that, if there IS a trend towards Republicans doing better with Hispanic males, there would also have to be a trend towards them doing worse with Hispanic females so that it is canceled out.

[Col Hogan]

Hispanic males are moving right, and Democrat analysts (and JohnStOnge) are at a loss to explain it since they are constantly predicting states like Texas will soon turn blue because of the Team Brown vote..,

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/p ... 1MpKXmbwct

I'd have to get a subscription to read the article so I can't see the data they are using to support the premise, but I think the premise is probably false. I don't think there is any consistent trend whereby Hispanic males are moving to the right.

Unfortunately exit polling data precise enough to tell you how each sex among Hispanics voted are not easy to find. But one can readily see that there is no trend over the history of exit polling towards Hispanics in general moving to the right. There is quite a bit of variability.

The 32% Trump got among Hispanics in 2020 wasn't bad. But it was 5th highest overall among the 12 Presidential elections held since exit polling started in 1976. Reagan got 37% and 34% among Hispanics in 1980 and 1984. H.W. Bush got 35% and 44% in 2000 and 2004.

McCain got 31% running against Obama. I guarantee you, Trump would not have gotten 31% running against Obama.

Anyway, when you look at it overall, there isn't any significant trend. The average is 30. Trump got 29 in 2016 and 32 in 2020. So OK he got slightly above average in 2020. But that's not remarkable (except one can argue that it's remarkable that he didn't crash with Hispanics and go way below average because of his personal characteristics).

Yes, that is all Hispanics and not just males. But what it tells you is that, if there IS a trend towards Republicans doing better with Hispanic males, there would also have to be a trend towards them doing worse with Hispanic females so that it is canceled out.

Got it...the NY Times is publishing fake news...

[JohnStOnge]

I'd have to get a subscription to read the article so I can't see the data they are using to support the premise, but I think the premise is probably false. I don't think there is any consistent trend whereby Hispanic males are moving to the right.

Unfortunately exit polling data precise enough to tell you how each sex among Hispanics voted are not easy to find. But one can readily see that there is no trend over the history of exit polling towards Hispanics in general moving to the right. There is quite a bit of variability.

The 32% Trump got among Hispanics in 2020 wasn't bad. But it was 5th highest overall among the 12 Presidential elections held since exit polling started in 1976. Reagan got 37% and 34% among Hispanics in 1980 and 1984. H.W. Bush got 35% and 44% in 2000 and 2004.

McCain got 31% running against Obama. I guarantee you, Trump would not have gotten 31% running against Obama.

Anyway, when you look at it overall, there isn't any significant trend. The average is 30. Trump got 29 in 2016 and 32 in 2020. So OK he got slightly above average in 2020. But that's not remarkable (except one can argue that it's remarkable that he didn't crash with Hispanics and go way below average because of his personal characteristics).

Yes, that is all Hispanics and not just males. But what it tells you is that, if there IS a trend towards Republicans doing better with Hispanic males, there would also have to be a trend towards them doing worse with Hispanic females so that it is canceled out.

Got it...the NY Times is publishing fake news...

I'm just saying that the exit polling data don't appear to support the premise that there is a trend towards Hispanic males tending to vote more Republican. The problem with trying to gauge it is that, when you go back a few years, they don't break it down to that level in the Race x Sex/Gender crosstab. They break it down just to White and non White.

But, for instance, I think it is very likely that both Reagan and G.W. Bush got higher percentages of the Hispanic male vote during the four elections those two were involved in than Trump got either time. But the exit polls don't break it down that precisely for their elections. All I can confirm is that they did better among Hispanics overall.

If you go back over the Presidential elections since exit polling started this is the percentage of the overall Hispanic vote Republicans got each time:

18
37
34
30
25
21
35
44
31
27
29
32

Yes there is that 18 that is notably lower than others in the first one. But after that it's just random variation. There's no trend such that the Republican candidate has tended to do better over time. There's no big sea change going on.

[SDHornet]

I love it when JSO makes a prediction of Team Brown voting patterns and is completely wrong. I didn't read either of his last 500+ word posts, but if he is spewing more nonsense about Team Brown being a lock for the Leftist agenda then he is wrong again.

And yes, legal immigrants hate illegals. Yes, hate. It costs thousands of dollars and in a lot of cases years to become legal. Those illegal mother fuckers can get their ass in line and pay their dues.

[JohnStOnge]

I love it when JSO makes a prediction of Team Brown voting patterns and is completely wrong. I didn't read either of his last 500+ word posts, but if he is spewing more nonsense about Team Brown being a lock for the Leftist agenda then he is wrong again.

And yes, legal immigrants hate illegals. Yes, hate. It costs thousands of dollars and in a lot of cases years to become legal. Those illegal mother fuckers can get their ass in line and pay their dues.

It wasn't a prediction. It was a retrospective look at how Hispanics have voted over time. And Trump's performances among Hispanics was "middle of the pack." I do think that is remarkable in that he has shown a blatant negative bias towards hispanics. I WOULD have predicted that he would've done worse. But there is no indication, so far, that there is some kind of trend whereby Republicans are doing better among hispanics.

What do you think? G.W. Bush got 35% among hispanics in 2000 then 44% in 2004. Trump got 29% in 2016 among hispanics and 32% in 2020. The problem with trying to look at how each did among hispanic males is that the exit polls for 2000 and 2004 just break race x sex down into White and non White. So we can't directly look at how Bush did among hispanic males.

But do you REALLY think, given those overall hispanic vote numbers, that Trump did better than G.W. Bush did?

Or do you think he did better than Reagan did? Reagan got 37% of the overall hispanic vote in 1980 then 34% of it in 1984.

Trump did not set any records in terms of support for a Republican candidate among hispanics. It's just the reality. I'll admit that I am perplexed by the fact that he didn't do worse. But the idea that he achieved some kind of unprecedented success among Republican candidates among hispanics is obviously false. Both H.W. Bush and Reagan did better than he ever did both times. And McCain did better than he did in 2016.

I have to say, again about McCain: Trump didn't have to run against Obama.

[JohnStOnge]

And BTW, my prediction at this point in ANY election is that the overwhelming majority of non Whites will vote for the Democrat. And that happened again in 2020.

Over time, the overall margin for Democrats in terms of percent of the vote among non White voters has decreased. But that is primarily because Blacks have become a smaller percentage of the non White population. Nothing has been happening to change the basic picture: The Republicans are in trouble for the long term as the proportion of the population composed of non Whites increases.

Trump just lost the overall popular vote by a little over 7 million votes. And that's because he lost big among non Whites.

When non Whites become a majority of voters (they were 33% in 2020), the Republicans are going to be completely screwed unless there is some kind of really massive change in the way non Whites vote. Actually the "screwed" point will be reached earlier than that because the edge Republicans hold among Whites is not as great.

[Winterborn]

I love it when JSO makes a prediction of Team Brown voting patterns and is completely wrong. I didn't read either of his last 500+ word posts, but if he is spewing more nonsense about Team Brown being a lock for the Leftist agenda then he is wrong again.

And yes, legal immigrants hate illegals. Yes, hate. It costs thousands of dollars and in a lot of cases years to become legal. Those illegal mother fuckers can get their ass in line and pay their dues.

It is always fun to talk politics with the ones that are here legally vs. illegally. Makes some of the conversations on this board down right pale.

[kalm]

I love it when JSO makes a prediction of Team Brown voting patterns and is completely wrong. I didn't read either of his last 500+ word posts, but if he is spewing more nonsense about Team Brown being a lock for the Leftist agenda then he is wrong again.

And yes, legal immigrants hate illegals. Yes, hate. It costs thousands of dollars and in a lot of cases years to become legal. Those illegal mother fuckers can get their ass in line and pay their dues.

It is always fun to talk politics with the ones that are here legally vs. illegally. Makes some of the conversations on this board down right pale.

I thought Canadians were polite?

[Winterborn]

It is always fun to talk politics with the ones that are here legally vs. illegally. Makes some of the conversations on this board down right pale.

I thought Canadians were polite?

They are until you try and take their poutine.

[SDHornet]

I love it when JSO makes a prediction of Team Brown voting patterns and is completely wrong. I didn't read either of his last 500+ word posts, but if he is spewing more nonsense about Team Brown being a lock for the Leftist agenda then he is wrong again.

And yes, legal immigrants hate illegals. Yes, hate. It costs thousands of dollars and in a lot of cases years to become legal. Those illegal mother fuckers can get their ass in line and pay their dues.

It wasn't a prediction. It was a retrospective look at how Hispanics have voted over time. And Trump's performances among Hispanics was "middle of the pack."

I stopped reading here, and is just another example of why I don't read your posts. Trump pulled nearly a third of Team Brown. One Third. Any other conk POTUS candidate would piss their pants at the thought of getting a third of the Team Brown vote.

[kalm]

It wasn't a prediction. It was a retrospective look at how Hispanics have voted over time. And Trump's performances among Hispanics was "middle of the pack."

I stopped reading here, and is just another example of why I don't read your posts. Trump pulled nearly a third of Team Brown. One Third. Any other conk POTUS candidate would piss their pants at the thought of getting a third of the Team Brown vote.

It wasn’t? So you stop reading and reply once you’ve seen something you don’t like?

Interesting.

[AZGrizFan]

I stopped reading here, and is just another example of why I don't read your posts. Trump pulled nearly a third of Team Brown. One Third. Any other conk POTUS candidate would piss their pants at the thought of getting a third of the Team Brown vote.

It wasn’t? So you stop reading and reply once you’ve seen something you don’t like?

Interesting.

The error in JSO’s thinking (man, it gets exhausting pointing these out) is that on his one hand Trump was supposedly a racist bigot who hated brown and black people. Yet on the other hand he managed to still pull nearly 33% of the vote. Someone’s got some ‘splainin’ to do, Lucy....

[SDHornet]

I stopped reading here, and is just another example of why I don't read your posts. Trump pulled nearly a third of Team Brown. One Third. Any other conk POTUS candidate would piss their pants at the thought of getting a third of the Team Brown vote.

It wasn’t? So you stop reading and reply once you’ve seen something you don’t like?

Interesting.

No I stop reading when JSO throws out his typical statistically incorrect info.