When did the Right go off the deep end? Was it 12-13 years ago when the colored feller was elected to the White House? Was it the Tea Party? The Freedom Caucus? Or was it with the "persecution" of Lil' Donnie that caused his MAGAts to finally go el loco? Qanon. Stolen elections. It's quacking like a qrazy duck.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:10 pmAre you that dense? The Left didn’t go off the deep end until about 7-8 years ago. Of course there’s no “trend” yet….this tidal shift has just begun, and the further left the crazies on the left get, the faster this “non-trend” is going to accelerate. This is you, once again, looking at “data” and trying to draw a conclusion without consideration for what’s happening BEHIND the data. Your analysis is a joke.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:26 pm
I'm not moving the goalpost. What I've said all along is that, unless something changes with respect to the basic demographics of voting, Republicans are in trouble in the long term. I went ahead and looked up Texas exit polling back through 2000 to illustrate (they didn't do an exit poll of Texas in 2012). Here is the percentage of the hispanic vote the Republican got in each Presidential race in Texas according to exit poll estimates:
2000 - 43%
2004 - 49%
2008 - 35%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 34%
2020 - 41%
2004 was notable because GW darn near got the majority of the hispanic vote in Texas. But, otherwise, there is no trend that would suggest that the basic picture is changing. I will admit that it amazes me that the Republicans didn't totally crash both times with Trump. But there is no trend.
Now, it IS true that Republicans have done better with hispanics in Texas over the period than they have done nationally. You can see that by comparing the following national percentages the Republicans got from Hispanics to the Texas ones:
2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 28%
2020 - 32%
The idea that the data at this point indicate some kind of change in the basic pattern is just false. It could happen. But it has not. I can't get Texas all the way back but if you go all the way back to the beginning of exit polling and look at how Republicans have done with Hispanics you get this:
1976 - 18%
1980 - 37%
1984 - 34%
1988 - 30%
1992 - 25%
1996 - 21%
2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - 27%
2016 - 29%
2020 - 32%
There is nothing to suggest that the basic situation has changed. Maybe you can say 1976 is distinctly worse. But for sure there's no indication of some trend towards things getting better for Republicans from 1980 on.
I never said it is absolutely impossible for Republicans to do well in the future. But to do it they're going to have to change the pattern. And there is nothing in the data generated over the past 40 years to indicate that they have made any perceptible progress in that regard. At this point had the majority of voters in Texas been non White, Trump would've lost Texas. And a day is coming when the majority of voters in Texas are going to be non White.
The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
That's an interesting question. I think it's possible that the Republicans have permanently lost a small but still potentially impactful proportion of people who have historically supported them. Time will tell, but when I look at my own family I see this:
I was born in 1957. I voted Republican in every election on every level in every race of my lifetime, with one exception, until 2016. The exception was a case in which the Republican candidate was pro choice and the Democrat candidate was pro life. As of now I do not expect to ever vote Republican again. I am completely disgusted with the Party due to its embrace of Trump. If Trump croaks tomorrow I will still have complete disdain for the Party because it showed it has zero integrity and is thoroughly corrupt.
My wife went one better than me. She was born in 1958. She voted Republican in every election at every level of her lifetime with no exceptions until 2016. She was a Republican activist. She was recruited by the Tea Party movement to run for a seat on the State Republican Central Committee and won. She spent about 10 years on it before the Party nominated Trump. When it did, she resigned from the State Central Committee and changed her Party affiliation to non affiliated. She also is completely disgusted with the Republican Party because it showed something about itself in embracing Trump.
I don't know as many details about how my two kids voted. But both were registered as Republicans. When the Republican Party nominated Trump they both switched their registration to Democrat.
I know there is an argument that Trump brought in more new people than he drove off. We'll see. I think the Trump phenomenon may be like a cult. I think it's possible that, when Trump is not on the scene, many of the Trump cultists who enthusiastically turn out for HIM will disengage. And at least some people that the Republican Party drove off by embracing Trump are not coming back. I know I'm never voting Republican again. I'd be shocked if my wife or either of my children ever do either. It's just a question of how large a number it is. And it doesn't have to be that large for it to be a significant problem for the Party.
And yes I know I can't tell what the effect will be just by looking at my own family. But I know the effect is out there and I think I see it indicated beyond my personal circle. Just can't quantify it.
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Could I ever be a star?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
No doubt. There’s internal power struggles going on on both sides of the aisle, as well as the standard ones across the aisle. And all that quackiness is why it’s Just not possible (IMHO) to blindly look at PAST voting history and say, with JSO-level certainty, that X+Y=C. This is a very fluid, constantly changing environment.UNI88 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:24 pmWhen did the Right go off the deep end? Was it 12-13 years ago when the colored feller was elected to the White House? Was it the Tea Party? The Freedom Caucus? Or was it with the "persecution" of Lil' Donnie that caused his MAGAts to finally go el loco? Qanon. Stolen elections. It's quacking like a qrazy duck.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:10 pm
Are you that dense? The Left didn’t go off the deep end until about 7-8 years ago. Of course there’s no “trend” yet….this tidal shift has just begun, and the further left the crazies on the left get, the faster this “non-trend” is going to accelerate. This is you, once again, looking at “data” and trying to draw a conclusion without consideration for what’s happening BEHIND the data. Your analysis is a joke.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Well fortunately, I know four people who were registered Dems who switched to Rep when the Dems showed THEIR cards in 2016. They all voted Trump in 2016 and 2020….so I’ve got you covered there.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:37 pmThat's an interesting question. I think it's possible that the Republicans have permanently lost a small but still potentially impactful proportion of people who have historically supported them. Time will tell, but when I look at my own family I see this:
I was born in 1957. I voted Republican in every election on every level in every race of my lifetime, with one exception, until 2016. The exception was a case in which the Republican candidate was pro choice and the Democrat candidate was pro life. As of now I do not expect to ever vote Republican again. I am completely disgusted with the Party due to its embrace of Trump. If Trump croaks tomorrow I will still have complete disdain for the Party because it showed it has zero integrity and is thoroughly corrupt.
My wife went one better than me. She was born in 1958. She voted Republican in every election at every level of her lifetime with no exceptions until 2016. She was a Republican activist. She was recruited by the Tea Party movement to run for a seat on the State Republican Central Committee and won. She spent about 10 years on it before the Party nominated Trump. When it did, she resigned from the State Central Committee and changed her Party affiliation to non affiliated. She also is completely disgusted with the Republican Party because it showed something about itself in embracing Trump.
I don't know as many details about how my two kids voted. But both were registered as Republicans. When the Republican Party nominated Trump they both switched their registration to Democrat.
I know there is an argument that Trump brought in more new people than he drove off. We'll see. I think the Trump phenomenon may be like a cult. I think it's possible that, when Trump is not on the scene, many of the Trump cultists who enthusiastically turn out for HIM will disengage. And at least some people that the Republican Party drove off by embracing Trump are not coming back. I know I'm never voting Republican again. I'd be shocked if my wife or either of my children ever do either. It's just a question of how large a number it is. And it doesn't have to be that large for it to be a significant problem for the Party.
And yes I know I can't tell what the effect will be just by looking at my own family. But I know the effect is out there and I think I see it indicated beyond my personal circle. Just can't quantify it.
Psssssttttt….your defeating your own argument about being able to (with certainty) apply PAST election results to all future elections, taking into account changing demographics. But you already knew that, right?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Interesting family history. You’ve committed the classic research methods error of extrapolating from a small, unrepresentative sample size to reach insupportable results. Congratulations.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:37 pmThat's an interesting question. I think it's possible that the Republicans have permanently lost a small but still potentially impactful proportion of people who have historically supported them. Time will tell, but when I look at my own family I see this:
I was born in 1957. I voted Republican in every election on every level in every race of my lifetime, with one exception, until 2016. The exception was a case in which the Republican candidate was pro choice and the Democrat candidate was pro life. As of now I do not expect to ever vote Republican again. I am completely disgusted with the Party due to its embrace of Trump. If Trump croaks tomorrow I will still have complete disdain for the Party because it showed it has zero integrity and is thoroughly corrupt.
My wife went one better than me. She was born in 1958. She voted Republican in every election at every level of her lifetime with no exceptions until 2016. She was a Republican activist. She was recruited by the Tea Party movement to run for a seat on the State Republican Central Committee and won. She spent about 10 years on it before the Party nominated Trump. When it did, she resigned from the State Central Committee and changed her Party affiliation to non affiliated. She also is completely disgusted with the Republican Party because it showed something about itself in embracing Trump.
I don't know as many details about how my two kids voted. But both were registered as Republicans. When the Republican Party nominated Trump they both switched their registration to Democrat.
I know there is an argument that Trump brought in more new people than he drove off. We'll see. I think the Trump phenomenon may be like a cult. I think it's possible that, when Trump is not on the scene, many of the Trump cultists who enthusiastically turn out for HIM will disengage. And at least some people that the Republican Party drove off by embracing Trump are not coming back. I know I'm never voting Republican again. I'd be shocked if my wife or either of my children ever do either. It's just a question of how large a number it is. And it doesn't have to be that large for it to be a significant problem for the Party.
And yes I know I can't tell what the effect will be just by looking at my own family. But I know the effect is out there and I think I see it indicated beyond my personal circle. Just can't quantify it.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
So you think the Dem leadership is far left?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
It’s all relative to how far left the far left has moved….they’ve gone so batshit crazy they make the leadership look “center left”….when in reality they’re not.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Seriously. The Democratic Party is still controlled by the center right which is controlled by big money. This hasn’t changed all that much since the early 90’s.
The woke movement is permitted and more of a matter of shifting culture. It is only tolerated.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Well the squad is growing. And their ideas/concepts are taking root. But their mere existence is the only thing that makes the leadership look anywhere near “centrists”.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
You keep saying that as if it’s true. 90’s retread president and congressional leadership. Progressive proposals are already being watered down without much of a fight.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
'Bernie Sanders has real influence': Vermont's longtime outsider has become a trusted voice in the Biden White House
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Really? Tell me more….
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Your assertion. You back it up. UNI88 is at least trying.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Don't like it when AZ uses your own techniques against you?
Trying? It took me a minute to poke a hole in your balloon.
Did you ever consider the possibility that the leadership of the Democratic Party is both beholden to corporate interests and has moved to the left?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Just asking for specifics.UNI88 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:22 pmDon't like it when AZ uses your own techniques against you?
Trying? It took me a minute to poke a hole in your balloon.
Did you ever consider the possibility that the leadership of the Democratic Party is both beholden to corporate interests and has moved to the left?
I’ll reply to your Bernie article once I’ve read it.
Of course...that’s kind of what we’re discussing here.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Did you not see the "And yes I know...." statement?Ivytalk wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:12 amInteresting family history. You’ve committed the classic research methods error of extrapolating from a small, unrepresentative sample size to reach insupportable results. Congratulations.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:37 pm
That's an interesting question. I think it's possible that the Republicans have permanently lost a small but still potentially impactful proportion of people who have historically supported them. Time will tell, but when I look at my own family I see this:
I was born in 1957. I voted Republican in every election on every level in every race of my lifetime, with one exception, until 2016. The exception was a case in which the Republican candidate was pro choice and the Democrat candidate was pro life. As of now I do not expect to ever vote Republican again. I am completely disgusted with the Party due to its embrace of Trump. If Trump croaks tomorrow I will still have complete disdain for the Party because it showed it has zero integrity and is thoroughly corrupt.
My wife went one better than me. She was born in 1958. She voted Republican in every election at every level of her lifetime with no exceptions until 2016. She was a Republican activist. She was recruited by the Tea Party movement to run for a seat on the State Republican Central Committee and won. She spent about 10 years on it before the Party nominated Trump. When it did, she resigned from the State Central Committee and changed her Party affiliation to non affiliated. She also is completely disgusted with the Republican Party because it showed something about itself in embracing Trump.
I don't know as many details about how my two kids voted. But both were registered as Republicans. When the Republican Party nominated Trump they both switched their registration to Democrat.
I know there is an argument that Trump brought in more new people than he drove off. We'll see. I think the Trump phenomenon may be like a cult. I think it's possible that, when Trump is not on the scene, many of the Trump cultists who enthusiastically turn out for HIM will disengage. And at least some people that the Republican Party drove off by embracing Trump are not coming back. I know I'm never voting Republican again. I'd be shocked if my wife or either of my children ever do either. It's just a question of how large a number it is. And it doesn't have to be that large for it to be a significant problem for the Party.
And yes I know I can't tell what the effect will be just by looking at my own family. But I know the effect is out there and I think I see it indicated beyond my personal circle. Just can't quantify it.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?
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And say things as they really are
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Could I ever be a star?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
I will give you guys this: Texas and Florida are different than the nation overall is in that thee Republican tends to win by a greater margin among Whites than the Democrat wins among Hispanics. Example:
Nationally in 2020, Trump won by 17 percentage points among Whites while Biden won by 33 percentage points among Hispanics. But in Florida, Trump won by 25 percentage points among Whites and Biden won by 7 among Hispanics. In Texas, Trump won by 33 among Whites while Biden won by 17 percentage points among Hispanics.
And that basic pattern is not new. I did what I could to look back through 2000. I can't find State by State exit polling results for 2012. But for 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, and 2020, there is only one exception to the rule where the Republican in Texas or Florida does better among Whites than the Democrat does among Hispanics. That exception is Florida in 2008, when McCain won among Whites in Florida by 14 while Obama won among Hispanics in Florida by 15.
That does mean Republicans have more time to try to change the trend in Texas and Florida than they have in most places. You can figure it out.
Nationally in 2020, Trump won by 17 percentage points among Whites while Biden won by 33 percentage points among Hispanics. But in Florida, Trump won by 25 percentage points among Whites and Biden won by 7 among Hispanics. In Texas, Trump won by 33 among Whites while Biden won by 17 percentage points among Hispanics.
And that basic pattern is not new. I did what I could to look back through 2000. I can't find State by State exit polling results for 2012. But for 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, and 2020, there is only one exception to the rule where the Republican in Texas or Florida does better among Whites than the Democrat does among Hispanics. That exception is Florida in 2008, when McCain won among Whites in Florida by 14 while Obama won among Hispanics in Florida by 15.
That does mean Republicans have more time to try to change the trend in Texas and Florida than they have in most places. You can figure it out.
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And say things as they really are
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
BTW I am honestly amazed that there are people on this board, populated by intelligent people, who cant' see that the demographic evolution is a problem for the Republican Party.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?
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And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
I saw Trump gain with women and minorities in the last election. He did lose some men though. Not sure I understand you saying the Republicans are losing. Isn't it a good thing to diversify one's party?JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:35 pm BTW I am honestly amazed that there are people on this board, populated by intelligent people, who cant' see that the demographic evolution is a problem for the Republican Party.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
So I read this and I’m not sure what it changes.UNI88 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:53 am'Bernie Sanders has real influence': Vermont's longtime outsider has become a trusted voice in the Biden White House
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Heck, I'm amazed that you continue to think that things like voting patterns for all demographics won't also be changing and evolving over the same time. It's like you can't understand things with multiple variables. And that you can't learn from history, given that we've never had an extended time when we only had one party rule. But hey, keep laser focus on that one variable you can understand and just ignore the 98% of the rest of the picture.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:35 pm BTW I am honestly amazed that there are people on this board, populated by intelligent people, who cant' see that the demographic evolution is a problem for the Republican Party.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
You magnificent, sarcastic, snarky son of a gun!GannonFan wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:23 amHeck, I'm amazed that you continue to think that things like voting patterns for all demographics won't also be changing and evolving over the same time. It's like you can't understand things with multiple variables. And that you can't learn from history, given that we've never had an extended time when we only had one party rule. But hey, keep laser focus on that one variable you can understand and just ignore the 98% of the rest of the picture.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:35 pm BTW I am honestly amazed that there are people on this board, populated by intelligent people, who cant' see that the demographic evolution is a problem for the Republican Party.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread
Ibanez wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:53 amYou magnificent, sarcastic, snarky son of a gun!GannonFan wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:23 am
Heck, I'm amazed that you continue to think that things like voting patterns for all demographics won't also be changing and evolving over the same time. It's like you can't understand things with multiple variables. And that you can't learn from history, given that we've never had an extended time when we only had one party rule. But hey, keep laser focus on that one variable you can understand and just ignore the 98% of the rest of the picture.
I'm waiting with bated breath to read Kalm's defense of JSO from that big, mean, Ganny bully.
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