The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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Paging JSO. :coffee:
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

SDHornet wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:32 pm

Paging JSO. :coffee:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

No, no, it CAN’T be true. As I’ve stated many times here, JSO’s fatal flaw in almost EVERY analysis is his adamant refusal to look BEHIND the numbers. Look at what’s happening thats not reflected in the raw data. He adamantly insists that because Hispanics will soon become the primary voting block, then the Dem party MUST have a (growing) majority and won’t ever lose again....but the info just doesn’t bear that out...Here’s JSO’s Waterloo.....

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/republi ... rick-scott
Democrat politicians, consultants and their defenders in the liberal media have pushed the narrative for decades that Democrats were building a permanent majority coalition. They’ve argued that demography is destiny and the expanding share of minority and young voters would create a coalition of Democrat voters that shuts out the Republican Party for a generation or more.

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said "the Hispanic community is going to stay with the Democratic Party … to the Republicans, I say, you have no shot."

Well, here’s an inconvenient truth that Democrats don’t want to admit: it was a myth. And it was a myth born from the Democratic Party’s hubris. It didn’t happen.

Here’s another inconvenient truth: as the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased over the last three presidential election cycles, Democrats’ margin of victory among Hispanic voters has decreased, significantly.

And It’s happening everywhere. It’s not just Hispanic voters in South Florida uniting behind the Republican message and against the increasingly socialist platform of the Democrat Party, as many Democrats would have you believe. It’s all Hispanic voters, from all walks of life.

Hispanic voters are becoming Republican. It’s happening right now, and there is no stopping it. This isn’t something we are hoping for, this is something that is in process. This train is moving.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Democratic Party misread the so-called "coalition of the ascendent" and new polling conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) proves it.

Democrat leaders have taken their party in a direction that increasingly reflects the views of wealthy, urban, coastal elites, while failing to truly understand working-class Americans and the values and aspirations of Hispanic voters. Democrats are out of touch, and assumed that all Hispanic voters just hate Republicans, as they do.

Here’s the reality that the NRSC’s new polling proves: Hispanic voters are aspirational. They want to live in a society with a government that values work, faith, family, a quality education, strong borders, independence and self-determination. They increasingly see the Democratic Party as out of touch with those values.

*63% of Hispanic voters in battleground states see capitalism as the best form of government versus 17% who choose socialism. The Democrats are increasingly becoming the Socialist Party.

*72% of Hispanic voters believe we should do more to secure the southern border and stop the surge of illegal immigration. The Democrats are the open borders party.

*67% of Hispanic voters believe that our country, particularly younger Americans, are losing our traditional values of faith, freedom and family. The Democrats have become increasingly antagonistic toward these values.

*58% of Hispanic voters believe that too many people no longer want to work and are happy living off government assistance. The Democrats have put forward an agenda to massively increase the welfare state to make more people dependent on government.

*80% – four-fifths of all Hispanic voters – believe that public school systems in America are failing and our children are falling behind the rest of the world. Democrats have become the party of the unions rather than the students and oppose school choice almost unanimously. They own the failures of the public school systems.

Democrat policies hold back people who want to live the American Dream.
Our polling shows that Hispanic voters believe Big Tech has too much power, they support voter ID, they oppose cancel culture, they oppose allowing biological men to play in women’s sports, they oppose court packing.

On all of these issues, the Democratic Party in Washington is wildly out of touch with where Hispanic voters are. And there’s a simple reason why.

Democrat policies hold back people who want to live the American Dream. They are anti-aspiration. They are pro-government dependency. Democrat policies are meant to limit individual success. They want unemployment benefits to be higher than wages.

Let me give you a case study from Florida. More than twice as many Florida voters cast ballots in 2020 than did in 2000 and over that period, the electorate has gotten significantly more diverse, with White voters making up a smaller percentage of the whole. And yet, the state has become MORE Republican than it was 20 years ago.

Both Sen. Marco Rubio, in his 2016 race, and I, in my 2018 race, received almost 50% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans also picked up two competitive congressional seats in Miami-Dade County in the 2020 election while Donald Trump won the state by more than three points due in large part to significant gains among Hispanic voters.

It’s because Republicans in Florida have promoted an aspirational message. We want every Floridian to be able to live the American Dream – to get a good job, live in a safe community, be able to choose which school their children go to, to have a government that lives within its means and is responsive to the needs of its citizens. We fight socialism; we don’t let it become a central plank in our party’s message as the Democrats have.

Republicans can win the Hispanic vote. Sen. Rubio and I are examples that if you fight for good policy, genuinely engage the community and do the right thing for families, you will earn their support. And this can be done all across the country. As chair of the NRSC, I’m going to make sure we do this in our Senate races.

The American Dream for today’s Democratic Party is for the government to pay for everything and take care of you. They make up other words for it, but there is already a word for it – Socialism. I call it Systemic Socialism. It’s the new agenda of the Democratic Party.

Many Hispanic voters understand the dangers of socialism from first-hand experiences. This is bad news for Democrats and great news for Republicans. We don’t see Hispanic voters as a "voting bloc," we see them simply as our fellow Republicans.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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AZ, why use word when a graph tells the story. :coffee:

JSO, I would like to hear your misinformed take on this.

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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by kalm »

SDHornet wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:14 pm AZ, why use word when a graph tells the story. :coffee:

JSO, I would like to hear your misinformed take on this.

Not that some of Rick Scott’s points aren’t true, but what do the numbers look like based on population?

And what about age demographics?
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:00 am
SDHornet wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:14 pm AZ, why use word when a graph tells the story. :coffee:

JSO, I would like to hear your misinformed take on this.

Not that some of Rick Scott’s points aren’t true, but what do the numbers look like based on population?

And what about age demographics?
*63% of Hispanic voters in battleground states see capitalism as the best form of government versus 17% who choose socialism. The Democrats are increasingly becoming the Socialist Party.

*72% of Hispanic voters believe we should do more to secure the southern border and stop the surge of illegal immigration. The Democrats are the open borders party.

*67% of Hispanic voters believe that our country, particularly younger Americans, are losing our traditional values of faith, freedom and family. The Democrats have become increasingly antagonistic toward these values.

*58% of Hispanic voters believe that too many people no longer want to work and are happy living off government assistance. The Democrats have put forward an agenda to massively increase the welfare state to make more people dependent on government.

*80% – four-fifths of all Hispanic voters – believe that public school systems in America are failing and our children are falling behind the rest of the world. Democrats have become the party of the unions rather than the students and oppose school choice almost unanimously. They own the failures of the public school systems.

That does NOT bode well for Dems.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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From the hate America and hate white people network MSNBC.. Pickup trucks with American flags are so disturbing.
"I think that as long as they see Americanness as the same as one with Whiteness, this is going to continue”..

"Americanness" and "Whiteness" needed to be separated...

"I was on Long Island this weekend visiting a really dear friend, and I was really disturbed. I saw, you know, dozens and dozens of pickup trucks with explicatives [sic] against Joe Biden on the back of them, Trump flags, and in some cases just dozens of American flags, which is also just disturbing … “
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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..peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..
..But you have to go home now. We have to have peace…
..I know how you feel, but go home, and go home in peace.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

SDHornet wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:08 pm
“I don’t understand”. That’s all she had to say, because it’s plainly obvious.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

SDHornet wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:14 pm AZ, why use word when a graph tells the story. :coffee:

JSO, I would like to hear your misinformed take on this.

More depressing information for JSO: :lol: :lol: :lol:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/texas-rep ... ata-expert

Republican Javier Villalobos' narrow win in the mayor's race in majority-Hispanic McAllen, Texas, shows Hispanic voters are prioritizing policies over party, according to a Hispanic market expert.

Lili Gil Valletta, CEO and co-founder of CIEN+ marketing firm, told "Fox & Friends" Wednesday that Villalobos' win is indicative of a "new trend that both parties must pay attention to."

"We're seeing the swing and the shifting demographics at play right here in McAllen, Texas," Valletta said. "It is amazing to see what Hispanics are doing to flip seats."

Although the Texas mayoral race was technically nonpartisan, Villalobos touted a campaign of conservative values and defeated opponent Veronica Whitacre in a runoff election Saturday. The victory comes as the Biden administration faces criticism from the right for its border policies.

"Look at this mayoral race; he was racing on the economy, supporting small businesses," Valletta said. "We have been running data analytics and insights for the two last rounds of elections, and immigration never shows up in the top five. Jobs, the economy, education, health care - those are the top issues, which are American issues, that are driving the Hispanic vote."
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021 ... -to-biden/
The election of Joe Biden as president has led to a dramatic shift in America’s international image. Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, publics around the world held the United States in low regard, with most opposed to his foreign policies. This was especially true among key American allies and partners. Now, a new Pew Research Center survey of 16 publics finds a significant uptick in ratings for the U.S.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

SDHornet wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:14 pm AZ, why use word when a graph tells the story. :coffee:

JSO, I would like to hear your misinformed take on this.

If that is comparing 2016 to 2020, the bottom line is that Donald Trump won Texas by 9.0 percentage points in 2016 then won it by 5.6 percentage points in 2020. He lost ground.

He did gain ground with hispanics. He got 34% of the hispanic vote in 2016 vs. 41% in 2020. But he lost ground with other groups. One of the most interesting observations is that Trump actually may have won among post grads in Texas in 2016. They made up 17% of the sample and, in the sample, he won by 48% to 47%. This time post grads made up 15% of the sample and, in the sample, they voted for Biden by 54% to 44%.

Anyway, back to the basic point: As compared to 2016, Trump lost ground in Texas. One of the amazing things about what happened is that the percent White vote in 2020 was actually higher than it was in 2016. 60% of the Texas vote was White in 2020 while only 57% of it was in 2016. But Trump still lost ground. That should scare the hell out of Republicans in that State.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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Here's another good set bottom lines for you:

In 2016, the Democrat (Clinton) won among non-Whites in Texas by 37 percentage points (66% to 29%). In 2020, the Democrat (Biden) won among non-Whites in Texas by 36 percentage points (67% to 31%). The Democrats pretty much held steady among non Whites overall.

In 2016, the Republican (Trump) won among Whites in Texas by 43 percentage points (69% to 26%). In 2020, the Republican (Trump again) won among Whites in Texas by 33 percentage points (66% to 33%). That's a pretty substantial erosion.

The ethnicity story in Texas isn't Trump doing better among non Whites. That really didn't happen. The ethnicity story in Texas is that he suffered notable erosion in support among Whites. At least in terms of percentages that is the case.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:50 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:32 pm

Paging JSO. :coffee:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

No, no, it CAN’T be true. As I’ve stated many times here, JSO’s fatal flaw in almost EVERY analysis is his adamant refusal to look BEHIND the numbers. Look at what’s happening thats not reflected in the raw data. He adamantly insists that because Hispanics will soon become the primary voting block, then the Dem party MUST have a (growing) majority and won’t ever lose again....but the info just doesn’t bear that out...Here’s JSO’s Waterloo.....

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/republi ... rick-scott
Democrat politicians, consultants and their defenders in the liberal media have pushed the narrative for decades that Democrats were building a permanent majority coalition. They’ve argued that demography is destiny and the expanding share of minority and young voters would create a coalition of Democrat voters that shuts out the Republican Party for a generation or more.

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said "the Hispanic community is going to stay with the Democratic Party … to the Republicans, I say, you have no shot."

Well, here’s an inconvenient truth that Democrats don’t want to admit: it was a myth. And it was a myth born from the Democratic Party’s hubris. It didn’t happen.

Here’s another inconvenient truth: as the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased over the last three presidential election cycles, Democrats’ margin of victory among Hispanic voters has decreased, significantly.

And It’s happening everywhere. It’s not just Hispanic voters in South Florida uniting behind the Republican message and against the increasingly socialist platform of the Democrat Party, as many Democrats would have you believe. It’s all Hispanic voters, from all walks of life.

Hispanic voters are becoming Republican. It’s happening right now, and there is no stopping it. This isn’t something we are hoping for, this is something that is in process. This train is moving.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Democratic Party misread the so-called "coalition of the ascendent" and new polling conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) proves it.

Democrat leaders have taken their party in a direction that increasingly reflects the views of wealthy, urban, coastal elites, while failing to truly understand working-class Americans and the values and aspirations of Hispanic voters. Democrats are out of touch, and assumed that all Hispanic voters just hate Republicans, as they do.

Here’s the reality that the NRSC’s new polling proves: Hispanic voters are aspirational. They want to live in a society with a government that values work, faith, family, a quality education, strong borders, independence and self-determination. They increasingly see the Democratic Party as out of touch with those values.

*63% of Hispanic voters in battleground states see capitalism as the best form of government versus 17% who choose socialism. The Democrats are increasingly becoming the Socialist Party.

*72% of Hispanic voters believe we should do more to secure the southern border and stop the surge of illegal immigration. The Democrats are the open borders party.

*67% of Hispanic voters believe that our country, particularly younger Americans, are losing our traditional values of faith, freedom and family. The Democrats have become increasingly antagonistic toward these values.

*58% of Hispanic voters believe that too many people no longer want to work and are happy living off government assistance. The Democrats have put forward an agenda to massively increase the welfare state to make more people dependent on government.

*80% – four-fifths of all Hispanic voters – believe that public school systems in America are failing and our children are falling behind the rest of the world. Democrats have become the party of the unions rather than the students and oppose school choice almost unanimously. They own the failures of the public school systems.

Democrat policies hold back people who want to live the American Dream.
Our polling shows that Hispanic voters believe Big Tech has too much power, they support voter ID, they oppose cancel culture, they oppose allowing biological men to play in women’s sports, they oppose court packing.

On all of these issues, the Democratic Party in Washington is wildly out of touch with where Hispanic voters are. And there’s a simple reason why.

Democrat policies hold back people who want to live the American Dream. They are anti-aspiration. They are pro-government dependency. Democrat policies are meant to limit individual success. They want unemployment benefits to be higher than wages.

Let me give you a case study from Florida. More than twice as many Florida voters cast ballots in 2020 than did in 2000 and over that period, the electorate has gotten significantly more diverse, with White voters making up a smaller percentage of the whole. And yet, the state has become MORE Republican than it was 20 years ago.

Both Sen. Marco Rubio, in his 2016 race, and I, in my 2018 race, received almost 50% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans also picked up two competitive congressional seats in Miami-Dade County in the 2020 election while Donald Trump won the state by more than three points due in large part to significant gains among Hispanic voters.

It’s because Republicans in Florida have promoted an aspirational message. We want every Floridian to be able to live the American Dream – to get a good job, live in a safe community, be able to choose which school their children go to, to have a government that lives within its means and is responsive to the needs of its citizens. We fight socialism; we don’t let it become a central plank in our party’s message as the Democrats have.

Republicans can win the Hispanic vote. Sen. Rubio and I are examples that if you fight for good policy, genuinely engage the community and do the right thing for families, you will earn their support. And this can be done all across the country. As chair of the NRSC, I’m going to make sure we do this in our Senate races.

The American Dream for today’s Democratic Party is for the government to pay for everything and take care of you. They make up other words for it, but there is already a word for it – Socialism. I call it Systemic Socialism. It’s the new agenda of the Democratic Party.

Many Hispanic voters understand the dangers of socialism from first-hand experiences. This is bad news for Democrats and great news for Republicans. We don’t see Hispanic voters as a "voting bloc," we see them simply as our fellow Republicans.
And I would say that your fatal flaw is that you keep looking for trees that will help you to deny in your own mind what's going on in the forest. There isn't any trend towards non Whites in general or hispanics in particular that would suggest the changing demographics don't mean serious trouble in the long term for the Republican Party.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:54 pm
SDHornet wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:14 pm AZ, why use word when a graph tells the story. :coffee:

JSO, I would like to hear your misinformed take on this.

If that is comparing 2016 to 2020, the bottom line is that Donald Trump won Texas by 9.0 percentage points in 2016 then won it by 5.6 percentage points in 2020. He lost ground.

He did gain ground with hispanics. He got 34% of the hispanic vote in 2016 vs. 41% in 2020. But he lost ground with other groups. One of the most interesting observations is that Trump actually may have won among post grads in Texas in 2016. They made up 17% of the sample and, in the sample, he won by 48% to 47%. This time post grads made up 15% of the sample and, in the sample, they voted for Biden by 54% to 44%.

Anyway, back to the basic point: As compared to 2016, Trump lost ground in Texas. One of the amazing things about what happened is that the percent White vote in 2020 was actually higher than it was in 2016. 60% of the Texas vote was White in 2020 while only 57% of it was in 2016. But Trump still lost ground. That should scare the hell out of Republicans in that State.
Your entire argument hasn’t been about Donald Trump. It’s been about the inevitability of the changing demographic. You don’t think when the Reps aren’t running a buffoon like Trump those white votes come back? It’s the Dem POLITICS the Hispanics don’t like. And it’s getting worse every day. But you keep on keeping on with your head in the sand….it’s served you well to this point.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:00 pm Here's another good set bottom lines for you:

In 2016, the Democrat (Clinton) won among non-Whites in Texas by 37 percentage points (66% to 29%). In 2020, the Democrat (Biden) won among non-Whites in Texas by 36 percentage points (67% to 31%). The Democrats pretty much held steady among non Whites overall.

In 2016, the Republican (Trump) won among Whites in Texas by 43 percentage points (69% to 26%). In 2020, the Republican (Trump again) won among Whites in Texas by 33 percentage points (66% to 33%). That's a pretty substantial erosion.

The ethnicity story in Texas isn't Trump doing better among non Whites. That really didn't happen. The ethnicity story in Texas is that he suffered notable erosion in support among Whites. At least in terms of percentages that is the case.
Wrong. Let me give you a hint- most Hispanics are white.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

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AZGrizFan wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:43 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:54 pm

If that is comparing 2016 to 2020, the bottom line is that Donald Trump won Texas by 9.0 percentage points in 2016 then won it by 5.6 percentage points in 2020. He lost ground.

He did gain ground with hispanics. He got 34% of the hispanic vote in 2016 vs. 41% in 2020. But he lost ground with other groups. One of the most interesting observations is that Trump actually may have won among post grads in Texas in 2016. They made up 17% of the sample and, in the sample, he won by 48% to 47%. This time post grads made up 15% of the sample and, in the sample, they voted for Biden by 54% to 44%.

Anyway, back to the basic point: As compared to 2016, Trump lost ground in Texas. One of the amazing things about what happened is that the percent White vote in 2020 was actually higher than it was in 2016. 60% of the Texas vote was White in 2020 while only 57% of it was in 2016. But Trump still lost ground. That should scare the hell out of Republicans in that State.
Your entire argument hasn’t been about Donald Trump. It’s been about the inevitability of the changing demographic. You don’t think when the Reps aren’t running a buffoon like Trump those white votes come back? It’s the Dem POLITICS the Hispanics don’t like. And it’s getting worse every day. But you keep on keeping on with your head in the sand….it’s served you well to this point.
JSO trying to move the goalposts. That's such a jelly move. :lol:
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

SDHornet wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:32 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:43 pm

Your entire argument hasn’t been about Donald Trump. It’s been about the inevitability of the changing demographic. You don’t think when the Reps aren’t running a buffoon like Trump those white votes come back? It’s the Dem POLITICS the Hispanics don’t like. And it’s getting worse every day. But you keep on keeping on with your head in the sand….it’s served you well to this point.
JSO trying to move the goalposts. That's such a jelly move. :lol:
I'm not moving the goalpost. What I've said all along is that, unless something changes with respect to the basic demographics of voting, Republicans are in trouble in the long term. I went ahead and looked up Texas exit polling back through 2000 to illustrate (they didn't do an exit poll of Texas in 2012). Here is the percentage of the hispanic vote the Republican got in each Presidential race in Texas according to exit poll estimates:

2000 - 43%
2004 - 49%
2008 - 35%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 34%
2020 - 41%

2004 was notable because GW darn near got the majority of the hispanic vote in Texas. But, otherwise, there is no trend that would suggest that the basic picture is changing. I will admit that it amazes me that the Republicans didn't totally crash both times with Trump. But there is no trend.

Now, it IS true that Republicans have done better with hispanics in Texas over the period than they have done nationally. You can see that by comparing the following national percentages the Republicans got from Hispanics to the Texas ones:

2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 28%
2020 - 32%

The idea that the data at this point indicate some kind of change in the basic pattern is just false. It could happen. But it has not. I can't get Texas all the way back but if you go all the way back to the beginning of exit polling and look at how Republicans have done with Hispanics you get this:

1976 - 18%
1980 - 37%
1984 - 34%
1988 - 30%
1992 - 25%
1996 - 21%
2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - 27%
2016 - 29%
2020 - 32%

There is nothing to suggest that the basic situation has changed. Maybe you can say 1976 is distinctly worse. But for sure there's no indication of some trend towards things getting better for Republicans from 1980 on.

I never said it is absolutely impossible for Republicans to do well in the future. But to do it they're going to have to change the pattern. And there is nothing in the data generated over the past 40 years to indicate that they have made any perceptible progress in that regard. At this point had the majority of voters in Texas been non White, Trump would've lost Texas. And a day is coming when the majority of voters in Texas are going to be non White.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

On the McAllen Mayor's race: I'm sure Democrats would like it better if a guy who is Republican wouldn't have won. But it was a non partisan election. That means that, when voters went into the booth, they didn't see "Democrat" or "Republican" next to the name of the candidate.

I am also wondering if the turnout could really be as low as the article at https://www.valleycentral.com/news/loca ... -election/ suggests. That article says "Villalobos won the election with 4,744 votes to Whitacre’s 4,538." I am open to someone finding out that those numbers are not correct because if they are that means it was a real "apathy" election. The population of McAllen is about 142,000. And there were only 4,744 + 4,538 = 9,282 votes in the runoff election for mayor?

Like I said: That is so weird that I am VERY open to the possibility that I am missing something. But if it's real I don't think one can make much of an inference about what might happen more broadly base on an election characterized by THAT much apathy in the jurisdiction. If the guy won with only 4,744 votes in a jurisdiction of about 142,000 people he very well could've won with most of his voters being non-Hispanic in spite of the fact that the jurisdiction is 85% hispanic (15% of 142,000 is 21,300).

Another thing I thought about when I first saw this: I live in a State where a Democrat is currently in his second term as governor even though Trump won the State by 20 percentage points in 2016 and by 19 percentage points in 2020. Weird things happen
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by SDHornet »

Go on...
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:26 pm
SDHornet wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:32 pm

JSO trying to move the goalposts. That's such a jelly move. :lol:
I'm not moving the goalpost. What I've said all along is that, unless something changes with respect to the basic demographics of voting, Republicans are in trouble in the long term. I went ahead and looked up Texas exit polling back through 2000 to illustrate (they didn't do an exit poll of Texas in 2012). Here is the percentage of the hispanic vote the Republican got in each Presidential race in Texas according to exit poll estimates:

2000 - 43%
2004 - 49%
2008 - 35%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 34%
2020 - 41%

2004 was notable because GW darn near got the majority of the hispanic vote in Texas. But, otherwise, there is no trend that would suggest that the basic picture is changing. I will admit that it amazes me that the Republicans didn't totally crash both times with Trump. But there is no trend.

Now, it IS true that Republicans have done better with hispanics in Texas over the period than they have done nationally. You can see that by comparing the following national percentages the Republicans got from Hispanics to the Texas ones:

2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 28%
2020 - 32%

The idea that the data at this point indicate some kind of change in the basic pattern is just false. It could happen. But it has not. I can't get Texas all the way back but if you go all the way back to the beginning of exit polling and look at how Republicans have done with Hispanics you get this:

1976 - 18%
1980 - 37%
1984 - 34%
1988 - 30%
1992 - 25%
1996 - 21%
2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - 27%
2016 - 29%
2020 - 32%

There is nothing to suggest that the basic situation has changed. Maybe you can say 1976 is distinctly worse. But for sure there's no indication of some trend towards things getting better for Republicans from 1980 on.

I never said it is absolutely impossible for Republicans to do well in the future. But to do it they're going to have to change the pattern. And there is nothing in the data generated over the past 40 years to indicate that they have made any perceptible progress in that regard. At this point had the majority of voters in Texas been non White, Trump would've lost Texas. And a day is coming when the majority of voters in Texas are going to be non White.
Are you that dense? The Left didn’t go off the deep end until about 7-8 years ago. Of course there’s no “trend” yet….this tidal shift has just begun, and the further left the crazies on the left get, the faster this “non-trend” is going to accelerate. This is you, once again, looking at “data” and trying to draw a conclusion without consideration for what’s happening BEHIND the data. Your analysis is a joke.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:10 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:26 pm

I'm not moving the goalpost. What I've said all along is that, unless something changes with respect to the basic demographics of voting, Republicans are in trouble in the long term. I went ahead and looked up Texas exit polling back through 2000 to illustrate (they didn't do an exit poll of Texas in 2012). Here is the percentage of the hispanic vote the Republican got in each Presidential race in Texas according to exit poll estimates:

2000 - 43%
2004 - 49%
2008 - 35%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 34%
2020 - 41%

2004 was notable because GW darn near got the majority of the hispanic vote in Texas. But, otherwise, there is no trend that would suggest that the basic picture is changing. I will admit that it amazes me that the Republicans didn't totally crash both times with Trump. But there is no trend.

Now, it IS true that Republicans have done better with hispanics in Texas over the period than they have done nationally. You can see that by comparing the following national percentages the Republicans got from Hispanics to the Texas ones:

2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - No exit polling
2016 - 28%
2020 - 32%

The idea that the data at this point indicate some kind of change in the basic pattern is just false. It could happen. But it has not. I can't get Texas all the way back but if you go all the way back to the beginning of exit polling and look at how Republicans have done with Hispanics you get this:

1976 - 18%
1980 - 37%
1984 - 34%
1988 - 30%
1992 - 25%
1996 - 21%
2000 - 35%
2004 - 44%
2008 - 31%
2012 - 27%
2016 - 29%
2020 - 32%

There is nothing to suggest that the basic situation has changed. Maybe you can say 1976 is distinctly worse. But for sure there's no indication of some trend towards things getting better for Republicans from 1980 on.

I never said it is absolutely impossible for Republicans to do well in the future. But to do it they're going to have to change the pattern. And there is nothing in the data generated over the past 40 years to indicate that they have made any perceptible progress in that regard. At this point had the majority of voters in Texas been non White, Trump would've lost Texas. And a day is coming when the majority of voters in Texas are going to be non White.
Are you that dense? The Left didn’t go off the deep end until about 7-8 years ago. Of course there’s no “trend” yet….this tidal shift has just begun, and the further left the crazies on the left get, the faster this “non-trend” is going to accelerate. This is you, once again, looking at “data” and trying to draw a conclusion without consideration for what’s happening BEHIND the data. Your analysis is a joke.
Let’s take a look for a second at Dem leadership and who the money is following.

Biden
Harris
Pelosi
Schumer
Manchin

Bunch of far left commies I tells ya!

:lol:
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by SDHornet »

It's cute when kalmmy runs interference for the DNC. :lol:
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:50 pm
SDHornet wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:32 pm

Paging JSO. :coffee:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

No, no, it CAN’T be true. As I’ve stated many times here, JSO’s fatal flaw in almost EVERY analysis is his adamant refusal to look BEHIND the numbers. Look at what’s happening thats not reflected in the raw data. He adamantly insists that because Hispanics will soon become the primary voting block, then the Dem party MUST have a (growing) majority and won’t ever lose again....but the info just doesn’t bear that out...Here’s JSO’s Waterloo.....

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/republi ... rick-scott
Democrat politicians, consultants and their defenders in the liberal media have pushed the narrative for decades that Democrats were building a permanent majority coalition. They’ve argued that demography is destiny and the expanding share of minority and young voters would create a coalition of Democrat voters that shuts out the Republican Party for a generation or more.

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said "the Hispanic community is going to stay with the Democratic Party … to the Republicans, I say, you have no shot."

Well, here’s an inconvenient truth that Democrats don’t want to admit: it was a myth. And it was a myth born from the Democratic Party’s hubris. It didn’t happen.

Here’s another inconvenient truth: as the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased over the last three presidential election cycles, Democrats’ margin of victory among Hispanic voters has decreased, significantly.

And It’s happening everywhere. It’s not just Hispanic voters in South Florida uniting behind the Republican message and against the increasingly socialist platform of the Democrat Party, as many Democrats would have you believe. It’s all Hispanic voters, from all walks of life.

Hispanic voters are becoming Republican. It’s happening right now, and there is no stopping it. This isn’t something we are hoping for, this is something that is in process. This train is moving.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Democratic Party misread the so-called "coalition of the ascendent" and new polling conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) proves it.

Democrat leaders have taken their party in a direction that increasingly reflects the views of wealthy, urban, coastal elites, while failing to truly understand working-class Americans and the values and aspirations of Hispanic voters. Democrats are out of touch, and assumed that all Hispanic voters just hate Republicans, as they do.

Here’s the reality that the NRSC’s new polling proves: Hispanic voters are aspirational. They want to live in a society with a government that values work, faith, family, a quality education, strong borders, independence and self-determination. They increasingly see the Democratic Party as out of touch with those values.

*63% of Hispanic voters in battleground states see capitalism as the best form of government versus 17% who choose socialism. The Democrats are increasingly becoming the Socialist Party.

*72% of Hispanic voters believe we should do more to secure the southern border and stop the surge of illegal immigration. The Democrats are the open borders party.

*67% of Hispanic voters believe that our country, particularly younger Americans, are losing our traditional values of faith, freedom and family. The Democrats have become increasingly antagonistic toward these values.

*58% of Hispanic voters believe that too many people no longer want to work and are happy living off government assistance. The Democrats have put forward an agenda to massively increase the welfare state to make more people dependent on government.

*80% – four-fifths of all Hispanic voters – believe that public school systems in America are failing and our children are falling behind the rest of the world. Democrats have become the party of the unions rather than the students and oppose school choice almost unanimously. They own the failures of the public school systems.

Democrat policies hold back people who want to live the American Dream.
Our polling shows that Hispanic voters believe Big Tech has too much power, they support voter ID, they oppose cancel culture, they oppose allowing biological men to play in women’s sports, they oppose court packing.

On all of these issues, the Democratic Party in Washington is wildly out of touch with where Hispanic voters are. And there’s a simple reason why.

Democrat policies hold back people who want to live the American Dream. They are anti-aspiration. They are pro-government dependency. Democrat policies are meant to limit individual success. They want unemployment benefits to be higher than wages.

Let me give you a case study from Florida. More than twice as many Florida voters cast ballots in 2020 than did in 2000 and over that period, the electorate has gotten significantly more diverse, with White voters making up a smaller percentage of the whole. And yet, the state has become MORE Republican than it was 20 years ago.

Both Sen. Marco Rubio, in his 2016 race, and I, in my 2018 race, received almost 50% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans also picked up two competitive congressional seats in Miami-Dade County in the 2020 election while Donald Trump won the state by more than three points due in large part to significant gains among Hispanic voters.

It’s because Republicans in Florida have promoted an aspirational message. We want every Floridian to be able to live the American Dream – to get a good job, live in a safe community, be able to choose which school their children go to, to have a government that lives within its means and is responsive to the needs of its citizens. We fight socialism; we don’t let it become a central plank in our party’s message as the Democrats have.

Republicans can win the Hispanic vote. Sen. Rubio and I are examples that if you fight for good policy, genuinely engage the community and do the right thing for families, you will earn their support. And this can be done all across the country. As chair of the NRSC, I’m going to make sure we do this in our Senate races.

The American Dream for today’s Democratic Party is for the government to pay for everything and take care of you. They make up other words for it, but there is already a word for it – Socialism. I call it Systemic Socialism. It’s the new agenda of the Democratic Party.

Many Hispanic voters understand the dangers of socialism from first-hand experiences. This is bad news for Democrats and great news for Republicans. We don’t see Hispanic voters as a "voting bloc," we see them simply as our fellow Republicans.
Those kinds of arguments about what's going on behind the numbers have been being made for a very long time. A lot longer than 8 or 9 years.

The author talks about the past three Presidential elections and says the Democrat edge in the Hispanic vote declined "significantly." It went from 44 to 36 to 33 percentage points. But why cut if off at three elections? if you make it the last six it was 27, 9, 36 then 44, 36, 33. Overall, the Democrats tended to do better among Hispanics in the most recent three elections than they did in the previous three.

The author makes a big deal about the Democrats doing better overall in Florida in 2000 than they did in 2020. And Florida IS an interesting and somewhat unique case because a lot of the Hispanics there are of Cuban lineage and are more likely to be Republican than some of the other Hispanic groups. But the Republican candidate got 49% of the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2000. That's more than the 46% the Republican candidate got among Hispanics in Florida in 2020. So, if Florida really was more Republican during 2020 than it was in 2000, it wasn't because it got a higher percentage of the vote among Hispanics.

Another tidbit: The Republican actually WON the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2004 with 56% of it.

I don't know why people like that author find it necessary to delude themselves. Evidence in the data of a change may emerge at some point. But at this point there is no evidence of a change in the basic pattern that, if it holds, is going to be a major problem for the Republican Party as the US becomes more non White. Being in denial of an obvious problem isn't going to make the problem go away.
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Re: The Official "Making America Woke Again" Thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Looks like the turnout n that Mcallen, TX, mayor's race really WAS that low: https://www.krgv.com/news/unofficial-el ... len-mayor/ .

All other things aside: That is a remarkable lack of interest in who the mayor would be. For kicks I looked up numbers for the mayor's race in my home town of Lake Charles this past March. It was low turnout too. But I can understand to some extent because it was not competitive. The incumbent won with 74% of the vote. I estimated the overall vote total by dividing the winner's total by 0.74 and got 12,659. To give an idea as to how non competitive it was, the winner got 9,368 and the runner up got 2,426. That's in a city with a population of 77,000.

So Mcallen, TX, has a population of 142,000, nearly double that of Lake Charles, and has a competitive mayor's race where the winner gets 51% and the loser gets 49%. And only 4,538 + 4744 = 9,282 people voted? That's just amazing.
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