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Pwns wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:06 am This is purely anecdotal but I know someone on the board of elections in a purple county in Georgia who is saying they're getting lots of Biden Ballots that are all GOP on the down-ballot races.

I'd flip Florida and Arizona on Jelly's map to Trump and say the GOP keeps the senate majority.

On average since 1972, polls in the final 21 days of presidential elections have missed the actual margins in those races by 4.6 percentage points, almost exactly matching the 4.8-point error we saw in 2016.

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:16 am I'd also say, with respect to polls, that 2020 is really different. For 1, you don't have 2 unlikable, dishonest, corrupt scumbags running. Biden is far more likable than HRC ever was.

Also, at this stage in 2016, Clinton and Trump were much closer than Biden and Trump are. PLUS, there haven't been any October Surprises like Comey's letter. I don't think the Hunter Biden stories have moved the needle much, if any.



538 has done some interesting analysis around 2016 polling.

On average since 1972, polls in the final 21 days of presidential elections have missed the actual margins in those races by 4.6 percentage points, almost exactly matching the 4.8-point error we saw in 2016.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... all-right/

Pwns wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:06 am This is purely anecdotal but I know someone on the board of elections in a purple county in Georgia who is saying they're getting lots of Biden Ballots that are all GOP on the down-ballot races.

I'd flip Florida and Arizona on Jelly's map to Trump and say the GOP keeps the senate majority.

SDHornet wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:27 am

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:16 am I'd also say, with respect to polls, that 2020 is really different. For 1, you don't have 2 unlikable, dishonest, corrupt scumbags running. Biden is far more likable than HRC ever was.

Also, at this stage in 2016, Clinton and Trump were much closer than Biden and Trump are. PLUS, there haven't been any October Surprises like Comey's letter. I don't think the Hunter Biden stories have moved the needle much, if any.



538 has done some interesting analysis around 2016 polling.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... all-right/

Agree with you about Biden being more likable, but not dishonest and a corrupt scumbag?



My prediction is that the DNC steals this election for Biden. PA is his with ballots being able to count with no postmark, that alone will make it hard for Trump to win.

Not sure on the Senate, haven't looked too closely at it tbh. House stays D.

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:39 am

SDHornet wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:27 am
Agree with you about Biden being more likable, but not dishonest and a corrupt scumbag?

My prediction is that the DNC steals this election for Biden. PA is his with ballots being able to count with no postmark, that alone will make it hard for Trump to win.

Not sure on the Senate, haven't looked too closely at it tbh. House stays D.

I'm not sure what proof there is of him being corrupt (and to be honest I haven't looked deep into it) but he isn't corrupt when compared to Clinton and Or a NYC Real Estate developer during a time when the mafia ran NYC and the construction industry there.

Hunter Biden may be unethical but I haven't seen irrefutable proof that Papa Joe was involved.

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:39 am

SDHornet wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:27 am

Agree with you about Biden being more likable, but not dishonest and a corrupt scumbag?



My prediction is that the DNC steals this election for Biden. PA is his with ballots being able to count with no postmark, that alone will make it hard for Trump to win.

Not sure on the Senate, haven't looked too closely at it tbh. House stays D.

I'm not sure what proof there is of him being corrupt (and to be honest I haven't looked deep into it) but he isn't corrupt when compared to Clinton and Or a NYC Real Estate developer during a time when the mafia ran NYC and the construction industry there.

Hunter Biden may be unethical but I haven't seen irrefutable proof that Papa Joe was involved.

UNI88 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:54 am

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:39 am

I'm not sure what proof there is of him being corrupt (and to be honest I haven't looked deep into it) but he isn't corrupt when compared to Clinton and Or a NYC Real Estate developer during a time when the mafia ran NYC and the construction industry there.

Hunter Biden may be unethical but I haven't seen irrefutable proof that Papa Joe was involved.

I don't think he's as corrupt and dishonest as Trump or Hillary but he's a politician who became wealthy as a public servant so I think he's dishonest and at least a little corrupt. He showed extremely poor judgement and/or disdain for regular Americans by letting Hunter do the things that he did. He has accomplished very little in the many years of public service and his greatest qualifications for office seem to be that he's not as bad as the other choices and that it's his turn.

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:16 am I'd also say, with respect to polls, that 2020 is really different. For 1, you don't have 2 unlikable, dishonest, corrupt scumbags running. Biden is far more likable than HRC ever was.

89Hen wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:34 pm

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:16 am I'd also say, with respect to polls, that 2020 is really different. For 1, you don't have 2 unlikable, dishonest, corrupt scumbags running. Biden is far more likable than HRC ever was.

I get what you're saying and I agree that I hate Biden less than Hilary, but I wouldn't exactly pin the honest, not corrupt tag on him just yet. His best chance to avoid having a terrible legacy is the 25th Amendment so he can go back to the basement.

Gil wrote:I'm getting 364 to 174 H-Rod, the Candy Kaine can be President.

BDK wrote:Looking at the RCP map (with links to all recent state polls) I think Trump takes all the gray toss ups except for CO and NH. That = Clinton 272, Trump 266. That my prediction.

But I'll say it here: if Trump can win EITHER CO or PA, he will win. If he can't he loses. I'd give him about a 30-40% chance...

93 wrote:I still think Hilldog takes it, but in more of a nailbiter than she expected. Something like 287-251

89 wrote:I still think Clinton big

Ibanez wrote:I wonder what the chances are both get 269

89Hen wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:49 pm 2016 - 6 days prior to election:

Gil wrote:I'm getting 364 to 174 H-Rod, the Candy Kaine can be President.

BDK wrote:Looking at the RCP map (with links to all recent state polls) I think Trump takes all the gray toss ups except for CO and NH. That = Clinton 272, Trump 266. That my prediction.

But I'll say it here: if Trump can win EITHER CO or PA, he will win. If he can't he loses. I'd give him about a 30-40% chance...

93 wrote:I still think Hilldog takes it, but in more of a nailbiter than she expected. Something like 287-251

89 wrote:I still think Clinton big

And in true fence riding position....

Ibanez wrote:I wonder what the chances are both get 269

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:53 pm Btw, post the thread that's from. I'd like to see how far off we all were.

BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:38 am Trump wins, Senate stays red, House blue.

If I give score predictions, they’re on gameday before kickoff, or a day or 2 before.

FWIW Vegas now has it 290 Biden, 248 Trump (the betting cents are constantly fluctuating)..
https://www.predictit.org/

89Hen wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:56 pm

Ibanez wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:53 pm Btw, post the thread that's from. I'd like to see how far off we all were.

Not that many put an actual number up. Kalm of course posted a lot of fodder but didn't stick his neck out at all.

It's a mega-long thread. Page 90 is a week prior to election day.

https://championshipsubdivision.com/for ... 10&t=45449

kalm wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:03 pm

89Hen wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:56 pm
Not that many put an actual number up. Kalm of course posted a lot of fodder but didn't stick his neck out at all.

It's a mega-long thread. Page 90 is a week prior to election day.

https://championshipsubdivision.com/for ... 10&t=45449

I called it for Trump on here in July IIRC along with AZ.

Skjellyfetti wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:30 pm 2012 thread for a trip down memory lane
https://championshipsubdivision.com/for ... ns#p713717

JohnStOnge wrote:Obama will win. As usual, the people who make this country work will vote majority Republican and the parasites will vote Democrat. And there are too many parasites. Throw in a pinch of illegal voting...which always works to the Democrats favor...in a close election. Voilà! A totally unqualified individual with a completely wrong world view is President again.

Skjellyfetti wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:52 am Probably should have started this before early voting started... but, a week to go works.