2020 Election Predictions

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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

89Hen wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:28 am
Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:43 am Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5% in 2016.
Saw somebody analyzing MN yesterday, was very interesting to see the county map 2012 to 2016.

Obama won 27 counties in 2012
Clinton won 9 counties in 2016
People liked Obama more than Clinton.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:19 am Just curious you think that Biden having to defend Minnesota is a bad sign... but, Trump having to defend Jawjuh and Iowa doesn't seem to be.
Jawja amd IA are pretty far down the Trump defense list in terms of rallies. Trump Gen election rallies starting with Tulsa on 6/20 scheduled through Mon:
PA: 13
NC: 7
MI: 7
WI: 7
AZ: 6
FL: 6
MN: 4
OH: 3
NV: 3
NH: 2
GA: 2
IA: 2
OK: 1 (6/20 1st rally of gen election campaign)
SD: 1 (7/3 4th of July celebration)
VA: 1
NE: 1
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by HI54UNI »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:43 am
Baldy wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:40 am Why is Biden in Minnesota today, and why will he and Obama be together in Michigan tomorrow?
Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5% in 2016. It was always looked at as a battleground in 2020. Not surprising.

Trump won Michigan in 2016. Biden is trying to take the electoral votes from Trump there. Not surprising.


Why is Trump campaigning in Iowa (where he won by 9.4% in 2016) and Jawjuh in the final days?


Out of these 4 states - Minnesota, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia - Trump is defending 47 EVs and Biden is defending 10, btw.
I think part of Iowa is trying to pull Joni Ernst over the finish line. She's run a terrible campaign and her opponent has basically had an unlimited pile of money to beat her up. Trump's Iowa visits are very calculated IMO. Des Moines is obviously Iowa, the Omaha, Nebraska visit also gets a lot of coverage in western Iowa. Supposedly he's going to Dubuque which will get eastern Iowa but will also get him a fair amount of coverage in SW Wisconsin.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

Trump final rally schedule:
Today:
-Waterford Twp, MI
-Green Bay,WI
-Rochester,MN
Tomorrow:
-Reading,PA (I’m going)
-Butler (Pittsburgh area), PA
-Montoursville (Williamsport/Lewisburg),PA
Sunday:
-Macomb, MI
-Dubuque, IA
-Hickory,NC
-Rome,GA
-Opalocka, FL
Monday:
-Fayetteville,NC (rescheduled from yesterday due to weather)
-Scranton,PA
-Traverse City,MI
-Kenosha,WI
-Grand Rapids,MI
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:13 pm
Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:19 am Just curious you think that Biden having to defend Minnesota is a bad sign... but, Trump having to defend Jawjuh and Iowa doesn't seem to be.
Jawja amd IA are pretty far down the Trump defense list in terms of rallies. Trump Gen election rallies starting with Tulsa on 6/20 scheduled through Mon:
PA: 13
NC: 7
MI: 7
WI: 7
AZ: 6
FL: 6
MN: 4
OH: 3
NV: 3
NH: 2
GA: 2
IA: 2
OK: 1 (6/20 1st rally of gen election campaign)
SD: 1 (7/3 4th of July celebration)
VA: 1
NE: 1
Yeah - I'd say Ga is just to keep up appearances and help Purdue (who just quit the last debate, btw. punk bitch).
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

HI54UNI wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:16 pm
Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:43 am

Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5% in 2016. It was always looked at as a battleground in 2020. Not surprising.

Trump won Michigan in 2016. Biden is trying to take the electoral votes from Trump there. Not surprising.


Why is Trump campaigning in Iowa (where he won by 9.4% in 2016) and Jawjuh in the final days?


Out of these 4 states - Minnesota, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia - Trump is defending 47 EVs and Biden is defending 10, btw.
I think part of Iowa is trying to pull Joni Ernst over the finish line. She's run a terrible campaign and her opponent has basically had an unlimited pile of money to beat her up. Trump's Iowa visits are very calculated IMO. Des Moines is obviously Iowa, the Omaha, Nebraska visit also gets a lot of coverage in western Iowa. Supposedly he's going to Dubuque which will get eastern Iowa but will also get him a fair amount of coverage in SW Wisconsin.
Also how do Nebraska’s 3 electoral votes work without winner take all?
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by HI54UNI »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:35 pm
HI54UNI wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:16 pm

I think part of Iowa is trying to pull Joni Ernst over the finish line. She's run a terrible campaign and her opponent has basically had an unlimited pile of money to beat her up. Trump's Iowa visits are very calculated IMO. Des Moines is obviously Iowa, the Omaha, Nebraska visit also gets a lot of coverage in western Iowa. Supposedly he's going to Dubuque which will get eastern Iowa but will also get him a fair amount of coverage in SW Wisconsin.
Also how do Nebraska’s 3 electoral votes work without winner take all?
That was part of the Omaha visit. They split the vote in Nebraska and Trump wants to win all 5 EVs.

Some info on how NE and ME do it:

In all but two states, electoral votes are 'winner-take-all'. The candidate winning the popular vote normally receives* all of that state's votes. Maine and Nebraska have taken a different approach. Using the 'congressional district method', these states allocate two electoral votes to the state popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska). This creates multiple popular vote contests in these states, which could lead to a split electoral vote.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by 89Hen »

Ibanez wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:41 am
89Hen wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:28 am

Saw somebody analyzing MN yesterday, was very interesting to see the county map 2012 to 2016.

Obama won 27 counties in 2012
Clinton won 9 counties in 2016
People liked Obama more than Clinton.
Kerry won 25
Gore won 17

They liked everyone better than Hilary
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by 89Hen »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:30 pm Trump final rally schedule:
Today:
-Waterford Twp, MI
-Green Bay,WI
-Rochester,MN
Tomorrow:
-Reading,PA (I’m going)
-Butler (Pittsburgh area), PA
-Montoursville (Williamsport/Lewisburg),PA
Sunday:
-Macomb, MI
-Dubuque, IA
-Hickory,NC
-Rome,GA
-Opalocka, FL
Monday:
-Fayetteville,NC (rescheduled from yesterday due to weather)
-Scranton,PA
-Traverse City,MI
-Kenosha,WI
-Grand Rapids,MI
Biden final rally schedule:
Today
- Wilmington, DE
Tomorrow
- Chester, PA
Sunday
- Wilmington, DE
Monday
- West Chester, PA
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

89Hen wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:55 pm
Ibanez wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:41 am

People liked Obama more than Clinton.
Kerry won 25
Gore won 17

They liked everyone better than Hilary
That's not surprising. Nobody really likes the girl who asks for pop quizzes, homework on Friday and gives bad hand jobs.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:56 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:30 pm Trump final rally schedule:
Today:
-Waterford Twp, MI
-Green Bay,WI
-Rochester,MN
Tomorrow:
-Reading,PA (I’m going)
-Butler (Pittsburgh area), PA
-Montoursville (Williamsport/Lewisburg),PA
Sunday:
-Macomb, MI
-Dubuque, IA
-Hickory,NC
-Rome,GA
-Opalocka, FL
Monday:
-Fayetteville,NC (rescheduled from yesterday due to weather)
-Scranton,PA
-Traverse City,MI
-Kenosha,WI
-Grand Rapids,MI
Biden final rally schedule:
Today
- Wilmington, DE
Tomorrow
- Chester, PA
Sunday
- Wilmington, DE
Monday
- West Chester, PA
Trump's rallies will be in front of 10k-30k, while Biden's will be in front of 10-30..
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by GannonFan »

89Hen wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:56 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:30 pm Trump final rally schedule:
Today:
-Waterford Twp, MI
-Green Bay,WI
-Rochester,MN
Tomorrow:
-Reading,PA (I’m going)
-Butler (Pittsburgh area), PA
-Montoursville (Williamsport/Lewisburg),PA
Sunday:
-Macomb, MI
-Dubuque, IA
-Hickory,NC
-Rome,GA
-Opalocka, FL
Monday:
-Fayetteville,NC (rescheduled from yesterday due to weather)
-Scranton,PA
-Traverse City,MI
-Kenosha,WI
-Grand Rapids,MI
Biden final rally schedule:
Today
- Wilmington, DE
Tomorrow
- Chester, PA
Sunday
- Wilmington, DE
Monday
- West Chester, PA
He's just not capable of anything more extended than a short drive from his house. If you like Biden or if you don't like him, it's hard to say that his advanced age isn't having an impact on his ability to campaign. He's just really old.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by AZGrizFan »

GannonFan wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:50 pm
89Hen wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:56 pm
Biden final rally schedule:
Today
- Wilmington, DE
Tomorrow
- Chester, PA
Sunday
- Wilmington, DE
Monday
- West Chester, PA
He's just not capable of anything more extended than a short drive from his house. If you like Biden or if you don't like him, it's hard to say that his advanced age isn't having an impact on his ability to campaign. He's just really old.
Nope. I give it 9 months, MAX. Harris will be president if they’re elected.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:59 pm
GannonFan wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:50 pm

He's just not capable of anything more extended than a short drive from his house. If you like Biden or if you don't like him, it's hard to say that his advanced age isn't having an impact on his ability to campaign. He's just really old.
Nope. I give it 9 months, MAX. Harris will be president if they’re elected.
Yep. This election is really about Trump vs Harris..
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Skjellyfetti »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:31 pm
Trump's rallies will be in front of 10k-30k, while Biden's will be in front of 10-30..
Trump's Rochester, MN rally was in front of 250.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by TheDancinMonarch »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:14 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:31 pm
Trump's rallies will be in front of 10k-30k, while Biden's will be in front of 10-30..
Trump's Rochester, MN rally was in front of 250.
And why was that? I'm sure there was a reason.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

TheDancinMonarch wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:35 pm
Skjellyfetti wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:14 pm

Trump's Rochester, MN rally was in front of 250.
And why was that? I'm sure there was a reason.
Jellyboy neglects to mention for political reasons the donk MN Gov this past week issued an exec order this past week that limited Trumps rally to 250 (which obviously doesn't affect Biden).I'm sure the MN AG Muhammad what's his name had something to do with it to.
https://nypost.com/2020/10/30/trump-say ... raw-flies/
Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in. CBS reporter "If not at least a couple thousand it looks like"
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/10/ ... t-outside/
Looks like thousands to me.

Trump made sure to greet and thank those folks too.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by bobbythekidd »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:28 pm
TheDancinMonarch wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:35 pm

And why was that? I'm sure there was a reason.
Jellyboy neglects to mention for political reasons the donk MN Gov this past week issued an exec order this past week that limited Trumps rally to 250 (which obviously doesn't affect Biden).I'm sure the MN AG Muhammad what's his name had something to do with it to.
https://nypost.com/2020/10/30/trump-say ... raw-flies/
Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in. CBS reporter "If not at least a couple thousand it looks like"
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/10/ ... t-outside/
Looks like thousands to me.

Trump made sure to greet and thank those folks too.
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According to the shadows, they had a hype man waving the crowd to cheer in the first clip.
When Trump arrived, much later, he kinda waved.
Political theater isn't compelling or even worth reporting on anymore.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:28 pm Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in.
What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:21 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:28 pm Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in.
What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
And John St Mengele has spoken.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:21 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:28 pm Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in.
What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
John — this summer’s prolonged rioting and violence has opened the eyes of a SHITLOAD of people. The Dems have shown their true selves, and it AIN’T pretty, except to the fringe elements. Y’all might have to wait a while for your “blue wave” to take over the country.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:21 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:28 pm Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in.
What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
MAGA crowd in the 40 degree weather in Butler PA tonight:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by JohnStOnge »

If I had to bet now I would bet Trump. It's not that I have no hope. That is just what I would bet if I had to bet. The reasons are as follows:

1. Even if it were a normal election, there is not sufficient evidence from polling data at this time to say Biden will win. The 538 forecast indicates 89% confidence. Sufficient evidence is 95% confidence.

2. We are not in normal times. Ironically, Democrat voters are more rational and are making more of an effort to act responsibly in response to the pandemic. That means they are far more likely to vote by mail. Voting by mail carries greater risk of making a mistake so that the vote is not counted.

3. Republicans are making substantial effort to suppress voting. Vote by mail comes into this again. They know Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail and therefore are doing all they can to make sure mail in votes are not counted.

It is a shame because I do think a solid majority of the American People want this guy out. But if I had to bet I'd bet he stays in. Hope I am pleasantly surprised.

Even if Biden wins, we will still have a big problem. The fact that we have enough people in this country who would vote for somebody like Donald Trump to allow him to be President once and be in serious contention to do it twice is a big problem. We have a problem with population quality. We have a cultural rot that needs to be expunged.

The good news is that all indications are it will be. Maybe not this time. But, inevitably, it will be. What we are witnessing is the last gasp of the rot.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:13 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:21 pm

What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
MAGA crowd in the 40 degree weather in Butler PA tonight:
Image
What a bunch of idiots.
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Could I ever be a star?

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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:21 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:13 pm
MAGA crowd in the 40 degree weather in Butler PA tonight:
Image
What a bunch of idiots.
:lol:
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