How Trump Wins

[UNI88]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... und-states

However - late in any campaign, there are decisions about which states you can go dark in and still have a reasonable shot at winning vs which states you have to pour money into. It cannot be an easy decision regardless if you're the front runner or not.

I thought Trump was a billionaire. He can't spend a few bucks on his own campaign? Is he cheap or doesn't he think it's worth it?

[GannonFan]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... und-states

However - late in any campaign, there are decisions about which states you can go dark in and still have a reasonable shot at winning vs which states you have to pour money into. It cannot be an easy decision regardless if you're the front runner or not.

I thought Trump was a billionaire. He can't spend a few bucks on his own campaign? Is he cheap or doesn't he think it's worth it?

Does he need to spend any more money to increase his exposure? Do we think there are people out there unfamiliar with Trump that they need a political ad to inform them about Trump?

[Ibanez]

I thought Trump was a billionaire. He can't spend a few bucks on his own campaign? Is he cheap or doesn't he think it's worth it?

Does he need to spend any more money to increase his exposure? Do we think there are people out there unfamiliar with Trump that they need a political ad to inform them about Trump?

Isn't that the same for any national candidate that's been campaigning for almost 12 months? I'm not sure it's about exposure as much as it's about getting your policies out there OR attacking your candidate.

[UNI88]

Does he need to spend any more money to increase his exposure? Do we think there are people out there unfamiliar with Trump that they need a political ad to inform them about Trump?

Isn't that the same for any national candidate that's been campaigning for almost 12 months? I'm not sure it's about exposure as much as it's about getting your policies out there OR attacking your candidate.

What are Trump's chances of winning without Ohio? If he bails on Ohio is it a sign that he isn't willing to bet on himself? Why should someone contribute to Trump's campaign if he isn't willing to contribute himself?

[SeattleGriz]

Isn't that the same for any national candidate that's been campaigning for almost 12 months? I'm not sure it's about exposure as much as it's about getting your policies out there OR attacking your candidate.

What are Trump's chances of winning without Ohio? If he bails on Ohio is it a sign that he isn't willing to bet on himself? Why should someone contribute to Trump's campaign if he isn't willing to contribute himself?

What if his polling tells him that he is going to win Ohio? Why would you waste money there.

That is what is happening with Florida. He's got it locked up, so he's pulling money and dumping into Minnesota.

[Ibanez]

What are Trump's chances of winning without Ohio? If he bails on Ohio is it a sign that he isn't willing to bet on himself? Why should someone contribute to Trump's campaign if he isn't willing to contribute himself?

What if his polling tells him that he is going to win Ohio? Why would you waste money there.

That is what is happening with Florida. He's got it locked up, so he's pulling money and dumping into Minnesota.

We will find out. I've read a lot, from various sources, about the mistakes in 2016 polling (btw, Trumps win was within the historical margin of error) and it seems that most pollsters tweaked their process since then. It worked in 2018. But you can't count the secret Trump voter or Biden voter. They exist - I know a few life long, die hard Republicans that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. I would never have guessed it from a few of them.


Sidebar -
It's funny. We usually ignore people that are always blaming others for their problems or inabilities. We shake our heads and bemoan people that don't take responsibility. We usually laugh and shake our heads at people that always play the victim.

Now they get to run for POTUS.

[SeattleGriz]

What if his polling tells him that he is going to win Ohio? Why would you waste money there.

That is what is happening with Florida. He's got it locked up, so he's pulling money and dumping into Minnesota.

We will find out. I've read a lot, from various sources, about the mistakes in 2016 polling (btw, Trumps win was within the historical margin of error) and it seems that most pollsters tweaked their process since then. It worked in 2018. But you can't count the secret Trump voter or Biden voter. They exist - I know a few life long, die hard Republicans that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. I would never have guessed it from a few of them.


Sidebar -
It's funny. We usually ignore people that are always blaming others for their problems or inabilities. We shake our heads and bemoan people that don't take responsibility. We usually laugh and shake our heads at people that always play the victim.

Now they get to run for POTUS.

Why would Trump give up on 29 votes to only try and gain 10? Only makes sense if his internal polling tells him he's got Florida in the bag.

[Ibanez]

We will find out. I've read a lot, from various sources, about the mistakes in 2016 polling (btw, Trumps win was within the historical margin of error) and it seems that most pollsters tweaked their process since then. It worked in 2018. But you can't count the secret Trump voter or Biden voter. They exist - I know a few life long, die hard Republicans that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. I would never have guessed it from a few of them.


Sidebar -
It's funny. We usually ignore people that are always blaming others for their problems or inabilities. We shake our heads and bemoan people that don't take responsibility. We usually laugh and shake our heads at people that always play the victim.

Now they get to run for POTUS.

Why would Trump give up on 29 votes to only try and gain 10? Only makes sense if his internal polling tells him he's got Florida in the bag.

No, it makes sense. Internal polling can be wrong as well. ESPECIALLY if it's going to a person that doesn't like bad news and won't accept bad news.

Also makes sense that you'll pull out b/c your internals show you can't win it and need the money in states you have a better shot at winning.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

I'm not sure how Trump could think Florida is "in the bag". All polls show either Biden with a slight lead or the two candidates in a statistical tie. I think the fact that Trump has a rally scheduled in Tampa today would indicative of the uncertainly related to Florida.

[Ibanez]

I'm not sure how Trump could think Florida is "in the bag". All polls show either Biden with a slight lead or the two candidates in a statistical tie. I think the fact that Trump has a rally scheduled in Tampa today would indicative of the uncertainly related to Florida.

Apparently enthusiasm and rally size = more voters.

[SeattleGriz]

I'm not sure how Trump could think Florida is "in the bag". All polls show either Biden with a slight lead or the two candidates in a statistical tie. I think the fact that Trump has a rally scheduled in Tampa today would indicative of the uncertainly related to Florida.

He pulled all his advertising dollars.

Because as of about two days ago, of likely voters, Trump still had around 60% and Biden was at 40%.

If the voters go at the same rate here on out, Dems don't have a big enough lead to offset the Trump voters left to vote.

On the flip side, if Minnesota is solidly in Biden's corner, why is he heading there to campaign? Biden is supposedly up 5 points there.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

Because as of about two days ago, of likely voters, Trump still had around 60% and Biden was at 40%.

In Florida? Where are you getting that bullshit from?

[SeattleGriz]

Because as of about two days ago, of likely voters, Trump still had around 60% and Biden was at 40%.

In Florida? Where are you getting that bullshit from?

CBS News Battleground. Looks as if they got their information from YouGov.

[BDKJMU]

I like Seattle’s optimisum, but I’m probably the most pro Trump guy here, and I say Trumps absolute best case, remote chance scenario, running the table, is 33 states..too bad we don’t have access to both side’s internals..$$$ is a better indicator than public polls...
https://www.predictit.org/

If you think $$$ is a better indicator than polls (which isn't without merit. Why would you continue to give money to someone you don't support?) then....

President Trump stopped all of his television and radio advertising in three states and substantially reduced it in four others in recent weeks after his lackluster fundraising left him unable to match a surge in spending by his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

Trump’s retreat from Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire reflects his struggle to change the dynamics of a race that polls suggest he is on track to lose. In the six weeks since his party’s national convention, Trump’s campaign has yanked more than $17 million in ads he’d previously booked in those states.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... und-states

However - late in any campaign, there are decisions about which states you can go dark in and still have a reasonable shot at winning vs which states you have to pour money into. It cannot be an easy decision regardless if you're the front runner or not.

That article was from 10/10, 3 1/2 weeks before the election, referring to prior actions. FWIW I heard some political analyst say last week saying the biggest bang for the buck with televison ads was 2 weeks before the election. If you’re pouring all this $$ into ads 1-2 months out, you were wasting alot of $$.

Where has the spending been the 2 weeks prior to the election (10/20 onward)?

[BDKJMU]

What are Trump's chances of winning without Ohio? If he bails on Ohio is it a sign that he isn't willing to bet on himself? Why should someone contribute to Trump's campaign if he isn't willing to contribute himself?

What if his polling tells him that he is going to win Ohio? Why would you waste money there.

That is what is happening with Florida. He's got it locked up, so he's pulling money and dumping into Minnesota.

Yep. Notice now Biden isn’t campaigning there either..

[SeattleGriz]

I'm not sure how Trump could think Florida is "in the bag". All polls show either Biden with a slight lead or the two candidates in a statistical tie. I think the fact that Trump has a rally scheduled in Tampa today would indicative of the uncertainly related to Florida.

Apparently enthusiasm and rally size = more voters.

Trump has had a massive ground game, supposedly like Obama had where they have been registering new voters for the last two years. People usually don't register as a Republican, just to vote for a Democrat. If that happens, it happens down the road.

The Trump campaign pulls these numbers all the time, so yes, your statement is correct. Enthusiasm and rally size equal more votes.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

In Florida? Where are you getting that bullshit from?

CBS News Battleground. Looks as if they got their information from YouGov.

I can't see the graphic you put up, but do you want to give me Biden +20 points in Florida? How much money do you have?

[Ibanez]

If you think $$$ is a better indicator than polls (which isn't without merit. Why would you continue to give money to someone you don't support?) then....


https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... und-states

However - late in any campaign, there are decisions about which states you can go dark in and still have a reasonable shot at winning vs which states you have to pour money into. It cannot be an easy decision regardless if you're the front runner or not.

That article was from 10/10, 3 1/2 weeks before the election, referring to prior actions. FWIW I heard some political analyst say last week saying the biggest bang for the buck with televison ads was 2 weeks before the election. If you’re pouring all this $$ into ads 1-2 months out, you were wasting alot of $$.

Where has the spending been the 2 weeks prior to the election (10/20 onward)?

There are a few articles from the week of the 12th. I suspect there's nothing new about Trump pulling ads b/c he hasn't done it since earlier in the month.

Here's one from the 20th.

The campaign stopped running television spots in battleground states during the GOP convention, only running national cable ads and spots in Washington D.C. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign outspent the Trump campaign from the start of the Democratic convention through the Republican convention by $24 million on the airwaves.

Two notable absences from the campaign's newest announcement are Pennsylvania and Michigan — The Trump campaign hasn't run television ads in Michigan since late July and Pennsylvania since early August.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-t ... blogHeader

[Ibanez]

Apparently enthusiasm and rally size = more voters.

Trump has had a massive ground game, supposedly like Obama had where they have been registering new voters for the last two years. People usually don't register as a Republican, just to vote for a Democrat. If that happens, it happens down the road.

The Trump campaign pulls these numbers all the time, so yes, your statement is correct. Enthusiasm and rally size equal more votes.

I forgot a smiley or two in that post....

[Ibanez]

Apparently enthusiasm and rally size = more voters.

Trump has had a massive ground game, supposedly like Obama had where they have been registering new voters for the last two years. People usually don't register as a Republican, just to vote for a Democrat. If that happens, it happens down the road.

The Trump campaign pulls these numbers all the time, so yes, your statement is correct. Enthusiasm and rally size equal more votes.

I forgot a smiley or two in that post....

[SeattleGriz]

CBS News Battleground. Looks as if they got their information from YouGov.

I can't see the graphic you put up, but do you want to give me Biden +20 points in Florida? How much money do you have?

I don't think we are talking the same metric. I'm not saying anything different than how Florida usually plays out. Dems always vote early and take a big lead. Republicans tend to vote later, or on the day of.

That's what the 40-60 is about.

Of likely Dem voters, there are only about 40% left to vote, while Republicans still have around 60%.

Trump's campaign believes they have enough likely voters left that they will surpass the early lead the Dems have built in Florida.

[Ibanez]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... ssion=true

But a handful of contrarian pollsters believe Trump’s support is underrepresented and that election analysts could be headed for another embarrassing miss on Election Day.

The battles have spilled on to social media, where some well-known political analysts have dismissed polls that show Trump leading Biden.


The Trafalgar Group, which was the only nonpartisan outlet in 2016 to find Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Election Day, show Trump with small leads in both states, which would be keys to another Trump win in the Electoral College. Nearly every other pollster shows Biden with a comfortable lead.

Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly says there is a hidden Trump vote that is not being accounted for in polls that show Biden on a glide path to the White House.

“There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Cahaly said, adding that it’s “quite possible” that the polling industry is headed for a catastrophic miss in 2020.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

I can't see the graphic you put up, but do you want to give me Biden +20 points in Florida? How much money do you have?

I don't think we are talking the same metric. I'm not saying anything different than how Florida usually plays out. Dems always vote early and take a big lead. Republicans tend to vote later, or on the day of.

That's what the 40-60 is about.

Of likely Dem voters, there are only about 40% left to vote, while Republicans still have around 60%.

Trump's campaign believes they have enough likely voters left that they will surpass the early lead the Dems have built in Florida.

That is quite a bit different than what you originally said.

[GannonFan]

That article was from 10/10, 3 1/2 weeks before the election, referring to prior actions. FWIW I heard some political analyst say last week saying the biggest bang for the buck with televison ads was 2 weeks before the election. If you’re pouring all this $$ into ads 1-2 months out, you were wasting alot of $$.

Where has the spending been the 2 weeks prior to the election (10/20 onward)?

There are a few articles from the week of the 12th. I suspect there's nothing new about Trump pulling ads b/c he hasn't done it since earlier in the month.

Here's one from the 20th.

The campaign stopped running television spots in battleground states during the GOP convention, only running national cable ads and spots in Washington D.C. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign outspent the Trump campaign from the start of the Democratic convention through the Republican convention by $24 million on the airwaves.

Two notable absences from the campaign's newest announcement are Pennsylvania and Michigan — The Trump campaign hasn't run television ads in Michigan since late July and Pennsylvania since early August.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-t ... blogHeader

What do you mean that Trump's campaign is not running tv ads in PA? Living in PA, I can tell you that there are just as many Trump ads as there are Biden ads. My kids can recite all the ads verbatim now. PA is fully contested by each side.

[catbooster]

There are a few articles from the week of the 12th. I suspect there's nothing new about Trump pulling ads b/c he hasn't done it since earlier in the month.

Here's one from the 20th.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-t ... blogHeader

What do you mean that Trump's campaign is not running tv ads in PA? Living in PA, I can tell you that there are just as many Trump ads as there are Biden ads. My kids can recite all the ads verbatim now. PA is fully contested by each side.

Maybe they're PAC ads, not Trump campaign ads?

PAC's have an effect on where or how much advertising a campaign uses too, I would think. Even though they can't coordinate.