BDKJMU wrote: ↑
Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:30 pm
kalm wrote: ↑
Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:42 am
Not an average of polls but Biden up 14 in general, showing leads or increasing leads in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Conditions in the country are volatile so no reason to believe polls cant be, but signals are not pointing in Trump’s direction.
Released the same day, 10/1, Biden up 3 in nationally, his lead narrowing after the debate.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-bide ... tipp-poll/
The latest poll in Michigan, Trafalgar, has Trump up 1. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would win Michigan? Trafalgar.
The latest Trafalgar poll in PA (mid Sept), has Biden up 2. The only poll in 2016 that showed Trump would PA.? Trafalgar.
Now I expect a full JSO dissertation on why the NBC national poll is good, and the IBD-TIPP is bad, and why Trafalgar is bad, Nate Silver blah, blah blah, 538 blah, blah, blah..
The IBD/TIPP poll is comparable to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll in the 538 ratings. NBC News/Wall Street Journal is rated A- while IBD/TIPP is rated A/B. If you read the 538 documentation, you will see that "A/B" means it's tough to tell because there haven't yet been enough of them to make a firm assessment but there are strong initial results. The NBC News Wall/Street poll, according to the 538 analysis, has had a 0.6 bias towards Democrats while the IBD/TIPP poll has had a 0.9 bias towards Republicans.
The Trafalgar poll conducted the latest polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Exit polling indicated that those who decided very late broke for Trump. Having said that, the Trafalgar poll has a bad grade historically at C-. It has not historically been one of the more reiable polls.
Right now the 538 election forecast makes Biden the favorite assuming people will be able to vote. But the 90% confidence interval is anywhere from Trump by 132 electoral votes through Biden by 344 electoral votes. If the election were to be held tomorrow, it would be too close to call in the electoral college. That's assuming everyone gets to vote and there are no problems associated with the COVID thing.
There is very high confidence that Biden would win the popular vote if the election were held tomorrow. I'd say the 90% confidence interval on that is something like Biden by 2 through Biden by 14.
Still, because of the archaic electoral college system, I'd say that if the election were held tomorrow it would be too close to call by the conventions used in statistics.