Coronavirus COVID-19

[SeattleGriz]

Let's hear how this guy is wrong too please.


https://brownstone.org/articles/model-m ... ves-saved/





Link to his submission to the Lancet, which has not replied, as they say they are "busy".

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ltext=true

Trying to run down everything that guy wrote to see if it is accurate and see if it has an impact on the validity of the model would take forever. But did you do something to determine that it IS accurate? Or are you just assuming he is because of his credentials?

And one is going to go with credentials, one should note neither one of the Brownstone Institute guys we are talking about has a background in infectious disease. One is a computer scientist and one is a psychiatrist. I just looked up some info on the first three authors listed on the modeling study they attacked. Here are some links:

https://academicmedicaleducation.com/oliver-watson-phd - His background is in modeling the transmission of infectious disease.

https://scholar.google.com/citations?us ... AAAJ&hl=en - His background is in statistics, infectious disease modeling and infectious disease epidemiology.

https://www.londonntd.org/research/rese ... preet-toor - Her background is in epidemiological modeling.

I would love to see the two Brownstone guys we've been talking about sit down with the study authors I just linked and debate the validity of the study. We would have a couple of guys with credentials and experience in computer science and psychiatry debating three people with experience and credentials in infectious disease epidemiology modeling about infectious disease epidemiology modeling. I think I know who I would bet on to
come out on top.

I can't even believe we have people out there seriously challenging the idea that the vaccines saved many millions of lives. And why? Why is it important to be in denial about something like that?

Way to retreat to your logical fallacy. "To think we are even discussing vaccine effectiveness is crazy."

Bitch please. Can you show me the risk/safety studies from the trials? You cannot. Bottom line is you are making shit up. You have zero safety data because they vaccinated the placebo group within four months. There are zero safety studies and your claim the vaccines are a benefit is unsupported.

I'll say it again. For the love of God, stay out of medicine. You are an uninformed hack. To believe we are smarter than nature at this point in our journey is laughable.

[JohnStOnge]

Trying to run down everything that guy wrote to see if it is accurate and see if it has an impact on the validity of the model would take forever. But did you do something to determine that it IS accurate? Or are you just assuming he is because of his credentials?

And one is going to go with credentials, one should note neither one of the Brownstone Institute guys we are talking about has a background in infectious disease. One is a computer scientist and one is a psychiatrist. I just looked up some info on the first three authors listed on the modeling study they attacked. Here are some links:

https://academicmedicaleducation.com/oliver-watson-phd - His background is in modeling the transmission of infectious disease.

https://scholar.google.com/citations?us ... AAAJ&hl=en - His background is in statistics, infectious disease modeling and infectious disease epidemiology.

https://www.londonntd.org/research/rese ... preet-toor - Her background is in epidemiological modeling.

I would love to see the two Brownstone guys we've been talking about sit down with the study authors I just linked and debate the validity of the study. We would have a couple of guys with credentials and experience in computer science and psychiatry debating three people with experience and credentials in infectious disease epidemiology modeling about infectious disease epidemiology modeling. I think I know who I would bet on to
come out on top.

I can't even believe we have people out there seriously challenging the idea that the vaccines saved many millions of lives. And why? Why is it important to be in denial about something like that?

Bitch please. Can you show me the risk/safety studies from the trials? You cannot. Bottom line is you are making shit up. You have zero safety data because they vaccinated the placebo group within four months. There are zero safety studies and your claim the vaccines are a benefit is unsupported.

I'll say it again. For the love of God, stay out of medicine. You are an uninformed hack. To believe we are smarter than nature at this point in our journey is laughable.

I have seen the "they gave the vaccine to the people in the placebo" talking point before.

They did not necessarily vaccinate everybody in the placebo group. After the vaccine was shown to be effective, they offered people in the placebo group the opportunity to be vaccinated (https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfi ... olunteers/). My understanding is that offering people in the placebo group the treatment once the treatment has been shown to be effective is not unusual. I have heard about that before and, while I could not find a description of the process just now, I found this article that makes reference to it happening: https://healthtalk.org/clinical-trials/ ... lled-trial .

As Tony explains, he was happy to take part, even though he guessed he was on the placebo. In his case he was offered the active drug at the end of the trial once it had been shown to work. This was also offered to Kate’s husband at the end of a placebo-controlled trial of immunotherapy (grass pollen injections) to reduce hay fever symptoms.

There are experimental safety data for what happens over a few months after vaccination and there are observational safety monitoring data. In fact I think the observational monitoring data are critical because if there is a low probability serious side effect there is a good chance that it will not show up in a clinical trial because there are not enough replicates to create a high probability of it happening. When the treatment is distributed to millions of people, the odds of having a low probability serious side effect show up go way up. And the FDA has systems/procedures for monitoring for that.

There is always some limit to what a clinical trial can establish about safety. For instance: There were 21,720 treatment subjects in the Pfizer clinical trial. If there had been a 1 in 50,000 chance that a dose would cause some serious fatal side effect, there would have been a 65% chance that it would not have happened among the 21,720 who would get doses. But if that probability was there it would certainly show up when the vaccine went public and millions of doses were administered.

There's a little bit of discussion of that concept in the 2011 FDA public information document at https://www.fda.gov/files/vaccines,%20b ... States.pdf.

[SeattleGriz]

Bitch please. Can you show me the risk/safety studies from the trials? You cannot. Bottom line is you are making shit up. You have zero safety data because they vaccinated the placebo group within four months. There are zero safety studies and your claim the vaccines are a benefit is unsupported.

I'll say it again. For the love of God, stay out of medicine. You are an uninformed hack. To believe we are smarter than nature at this point in our journey is laughable.

I have seen the "they gave the vaccine to the people in the placebo" talking point before.

They did not necessarily vaccinate everybody in the placebo group. After the vaccine was shown to be effective, they offered people in the placebo group the opportunity to be vaccinated (https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfi ... olunteers/). My understanding is that offering people in the placebo group the treatment once the treatment has been shown to be effective is not unusual. I have heard about that before and, while I could not find a description of the process just now, I found this article that makes reference to it happening: https://healthtalk.org/clinical-trials/ ... lled-trial .

As Tony explains, he was happy to take part, even though he guessed he was on the placebo. In his case he was offered the active drug at the end of the trial once it had been shown to work. This was also offered to Kate’s husband at the end of a placebo-controlled trial of immunotherapy (grass pollen injections) to reduce hay fever symptoms.

There are experimental safety data for what happens over a few months after vaccination and there are observational safety monitoring data. In fact I think the observational monitoring data are critical because if there is a low probability serious side effect there is a good chance that it will not show up in a clinical trial because there are not enough replicates to create a high probability of it happening. When the treatment is distributed to millions of people, the odds of having a low probability serious side effect show up go way up. And the FDA has systems/procedures for monitoring for that.

There is always some limit to what a clinical trial can establish about safety. For instance: There were 21,720 treatment subjects in the Pfizer clinical trial. If there had been a 1 in 50,000 chance that a dose would cause some serious fatal side effect, there would have been a 65% chance that it would not have happened among the 21,720 who would get doses. But if that probability was there it would certainly show up when the vaccine went public and millions of doses were administered.

There's a little bit of discussion of that concept in the 2011 FDA public information document at https://www.fda.gov/files/vaccines,%20b ... States.pdf.

No. None of what you pitch here is standard. You are asking for wholesale changes in metrics that you God damn know the general public doesn't/can't understand. You are selling snake oil. A giant asshole.

Let's see the safety data or shut up.

[JohnStOnge]

I have seen the "they gave the vaccine to the people in the placebo" talking point before.

They did not necessarily vaccinate everybody in the placebo group. After the vaccine was shown to be effective, they offered people in the placebo group the opportunity to be vaccinated (https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/01/pfi ... olunteers/). My understanding is that offering people in the placebo group the treatment once the treatment has been shown to be effective is not unusual. I have heard about that before and, while I could not find a description of the process just now, I found this article that makes reference to it happening: https://healthtalk.org/clinical-trials/ ... lled-trial .



There are experimental safety data for what happens over a few months after vaccination and there are observational safety monitoring data. In fact I think the observational monitoring data are critical because if there is a low probability serious side effect there is a good chance that it will not show up in a clinical trial because there are not enough replicates to create a high probability of it happening. When the treatment is distributed to millions of people, the odds of having a low probability serious side effect show up go way up. And the FDA has systems/procedures for monitoring for that.

There is always some limit to what a clinical trial can establish about safety. For instance: There were 21,720 treatment subjects in the Pfizer clinical trial. If there had been a 1 in 50,000 chance that a dose would cause some serious fatal side effect, there would have been a 65% chance that it would not have happened among the 21,720 who would get doses. But if that probability was there it would certainly show up when the vaccine went public and millions of doses were administered.

There's a little bit of discussion of that concept in the 2011 FDA public information document at https://www.fda.gov/files/vaccines,%20b ... States.pdf.

No. None of what you pitch here is standard. You are asking for wholesale changes in metrics that you God damn know the general public doesn't/can't understand. You are selling snake oil. A giant asshole.

Let's see the safety data or shut up.

It is not "standard" in some respects because it is an Emergency Use Authorization. The major differences between FDA approval and Emergency Use Authorization are described at https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/what-does-eua-mean:

Amid the myriad paperwork/administrative differences between the two options (more detail below), there are two standout differences—and they have nothing to do with the scientific rigor of the trials.

1. For an EUA for a COVID-19 vaccine, for example, the FDA requires that at least half of the clinical trial participants be followed for at least two months after vaccination. For full FDA approval of a COVID-19 vaccine, participants are followed for at least six months.

2. The full approval requires more data about the vaccine-maker’s processes and facilities, including inspections of manufacturing plants.

But offering the placebo participants in a clinical trial the opportunity to receive the treatment once there is confidence that the treatment works is not unusual.

[JohnStOnge]

Let's see the safety data or shut up.

I don't have the raw data but you can look at the reports on the clinical trials for summaries.

This is from the Pfizer clinical trial report at https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577:

The safety profile of BNT162b2 was characterized by short-term, mild-to-moderate pain at the injection site, fatigue, and headache. The incidence of serious adverse events was low and was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups.

This is from the Moderna clinical trial report at https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389:

Aside from transient local and systemic reactions, no safety concerns were identified.

Again: There are caveats. The clinical trials covered short time periods and did not involve enough subjects to be confident that very low probability adverse events would have been detected. But that is ALWAYS the case. Whether it is 2 months or 6 months, whatever goes on with safety monitoring during clinical trials is not going to tell you anything about years down the line and it's not going to give you assurance of detecting very low probability adverse events. But if we let that stop us we would never approve any new drugs, medical devices, or vaccines.

[houndawg]

Trying to run down everything that guy wrote to see if it is accurate and see if it has an impact on the validity of the model would take forever. But did you do something to determine that it IS accurate? Or are you just assuming he is because of his credentials?

And one is going to go with credentials, one should note neither one of the Brownstone Institute guys we are talking about has a background in infectious disease. One is a computer scientist and one is a psychiatrist. I just looked up some info on the first three authors listed on the modeling study they attacked. Here are some links:

https://academicmedicaleducation.com/oliver-watson-phd - His background is in modeling the transmission of infectious disease.

https://scholar.google.com/citations?us ... AAAJ&hl=en - His background is in statistics, infectious disease modeling and infectious disease epidemiology.

https://www.londonntd.org/research/rese ... preet-toor - Her background is in epidemiological modeling.

I would love to see the two Brownstone guys we've been talking about sit down with the study authors I just linked and debate the validity of the study. We would have a couple of guys with credentials and experience in computer science and psychiatry debating three people with experience and credentials in infectious disease epidemiology modeling about infectious disease epidemiology modeling. I think I know who I would bet on to
come out on top.

I can't even believe we have people out there seriously challenging the idea that the vaccines saved many millions of lives. And why? Why is it important to be in denial about something like that?

Way to retreat to your logical fallacy. "To think we are even discussing vaccine effectiveness is crazy."

Bitch please. Can you show me the risk/safety studies from the trials? You cannot. Bottom line is you are making shit up. You have zero safety data because they vaccinated the placebo group within four months. There are zero safety studies and your claim the vaccines are a benefit is unsupported.

I'll say it again. For the love of God, stay out of medicine. You are an uninformed hack. To believe we are smarter than nature at this point in our journey is laughable.

Where did you say your MD was from? I must have missed that part..

[SeattleGriz]

Medical community unable to determine cause of elevated All Cause Mortality. All cause mortality is simply deaths from all causes. Total deaths.

Look at that graph of German all cause mortality. Notice how deaths were pretty much within deviation during the first year of COVID? Then after the vaccines were introduced and AFTER the extremely vulnerable were killed and COVID became less lethal, we see an increase in all cause mortality?

You can thank the lock down Nazis and the vaccine Nazis for this increase. It's already been ruled out it was COVID deaths driving ALL of these excess deaths, so that leaves lockdowns and vaccines to fill the gap.

See what "you're going to kill grandma" and "it's the right thing to do" narratives did? No so great of things for the dead.

[SeattleGriz]

Peter Hotez ducking a debate with Kennedy. Wow.

*Rogan interviewed Kennedy Jr.
*Hotez ran his mouth about it being vaccine disinformation.
*Rogan offers 100k to Hotez favorite charity to debate Kennedy with no time limit. Others hop on and add to the money. Somewhere up around 900k now.
*Hotez does not accept.

Pussy.

[BDKJMU]

https://nypost.com/2023/06/13/wuhan-sci ... 19-report/

[BDKJMU]

Peter Hotez ducking a debate with Kennedy. Wow.

*Rogan interviewed Kennedy Jr.
*Hotez ran his mouth about it being vaccine disinformation.
*Rogan offers 100k to Hotez favorite charity to debate Kennedy with no time limit. Others hop on and add to the money. Somewhere up around 900k now.
*Hotez does not accept.

Pussy.

Yep. What a lame excuse.

[SeattleGriz]

Peter Hotez ducking a debate with Kennedy. Wow.

*Rogan interviewed Kennedy Jr.
*Hotez ran his mouth about it being vaccine disinformation.
*Rogan offers 100k to Hotez favorite charity to debate Kennedy with no time limit. Others hop on and add to the money. Somewhere up around 900k now.
*Hotez does not accept.

Pussy.

Yep. What a lame excuse.

I don't know if you ever followed any of my Intelligent Design vs Evolution threads, but this is exactly what they were about. You have a prevailing theory, but won't EVER debate anyone because it would reveal you were at a stalemate in many discussions.

You could be right, but can't prove it fully. That's fine, but you should be taking on all challengers to your theory. You've got just as much right to keep up with your theory especially if the competing theory can't prevail. But we never get to hear these debates.

Years ago Intelligent Design debated Evolution and won. Did they win because their science was more persuasive? No. Stalemate. They won because they were simply more engaging as speakers. Haven't seen another debate since then and the standard line is "science is settled" or "don't legitimize them by debating". Both lines of reasoning that should readily trounce the pretenders, but don't.

This is why COVID was such a shock to me. They turned people nuts that then spouted the most unfounded shit you ever heard. People spout unfounded shit because they have never heard, much less understand, the competing ideas. They have no clue how much science is actually unsettled.

[BDKJMU]

A direct result of the dumbest desions ever made in the history of American education- to close schools for ‘remote learning’ ie no learning. Every single school adminstrator and pol who pushed for schools to not be fully reopened after the Srping of 2020 ought to be fired..

The NAEP data shows that math scores for 13-year-olds plunged a whopping nine points between the 2019-2020 and 2022-2023 school years—the largest drop ever recorded. Reading scores, meanwhile, dropped by four points.

The numbers get even worse when you compare them to those of a decade ago: average scores declined 7 points in reading and 14 points in mathematics over that span.

https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2023/06/21 ... es-n765173

[SeattleGriz]

If you supported ANY of these ideas, don't be surprised if people won't be willing to lend you a hand if needed in the future. We all saw how quick certain people were to turn on their fellow man.

[houndawg]

This is the end of western civilization as we know it.

[houndawg]

Yep. What a lame excuse.

I don't know if you ever followed any of my Intelligent Design vs Evolution threads, but this is exactly what they were about. You have a prevailing theory, but won't EVER debate anyone because it would reveal you were at a stalemate in many discussions.

You could be right, but can't prove it fully. That's fine, but you should be taking on all challengers to your theory. You've got just as much right to keep up with your theory especially if the competing theory can't prevail. But we never get to hear these debates.

Years ago Intelligent Design debated Evolution and won. Did they win because their science was more persuasive? No. Stalemate. They won because they were simply more engaging as speakers. Haven't seen another debate since then and the standard line is "science is settled" or "don't legitimize them by debating". Both lines of reasoning that should readily trounce the pretenders, but don't.

This is why COVID was such a shock to me. They turned people nuts that then spouted the most unfounded shit you ever heard. People spout unfounded shit because they have never heard, much less understand, the competing ideas. They have no clue how much science is actually unsettled.

[SeattleGriz]

This is the end of western civilization as we know it.

I bet all those excess death people sure felt like it was their end. Everyone got screwed.

[houndawg]

This is the end of western civilization as we know it.

I bet all those excess death people sure felt like it was their end. Everyone got screwed.

Dude. Take a couple of days off and let the wounds heal. JSO already has you looking like tone of The Knights Who Say: Neee! Do like kalm suggested and just take the L. We won't think any less of you. We can't . I'm afraid that at this rate your going to tear a hole in the spacetime continum and vanish into the 6.93rd dimension...

[kalm]

Meanwhile, Long Covid persists. I know of two people affected. One suffered a pulmonary aneurism from it. Had to moved to a desk job in his company.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-023-00904-7

[SeattleGriz]

I bet all those excess death people sure felt like it was their end. Everyone got screwed.

Dude. Take a couple of days off and let the wounds heal. JSO already has you looking like tone of The Knights Who Say: Neee! Do like kalm suggested and just take the L. We won't think any less of you. We can't . I'm afraid that at this rate your going to tear a hole in the spacetime continum and vanish into the 6.93rd dimension...

So what is causing all the excess deaths in the highly vaccinated nations? It's either the effects of the lockdown, the vaccine, or both. So why would someone not be upset with the absolute mishandling and politicization of a pandemic.

[houndawg]

Dude. Take a couple of days off and let the wounds heal. JSO already has you looking like one of The Knights Who Say: Neee! Do like kalm suggested and just take the L. We won't think any less of you. We can't . I'm afraid that at this rate you're going to tear a hole in the spacetime continum and vanish into the 6.93rd dimension...

So what is causing all the excess deaths in the highly vaccinated nations? It's either the effects of the lockdown, the vaccine, or both. So why would someone not be upset with the absolute mishandling and politicization of a pandemic.

You should be thanking all gods that the last admin wasn't on duty when it was Ebola.

[SeattleGriz]

So what is causing all the excess deaths in the highly vaccinated nations? It's either the effects of the lockdown, the vaccine, or both. So why would someone not be upset with the absolute mishandling and politicization of a pandemic.

You should be thanking all gods that the last admin wasn't on duty when it was Ebola.

Yes, because we all swap bodily fluids on a daily basis.

[BDKJMU]

Of course he did..

[SeattleGriz]

Of course he did..

Because he's the typical science asshole that believes the end justifies the means because he's so smart, even though he isn't.

[houndawg]

Of course he did..

Because he's the typical science asshole that believes the end justifies the means because he's so smart, even though he isn't.

Sounds like either somebody didn't qualify for science school and is still carrying a grudge or they lost out romanticly to a scientist. Either is easy to imagine. Kalm gave you good advice when he advised you to take the L and move on - you should apply that advice to this situation too. Your momma said there'd be days like this

[SeattleGriz]

Because he's the typical science asshole that believes the end justifies the means because he's so smart, even though he isn't.

Sounds like either somebody didn't qualify for science school and is still carrying a grudge or they lost out romanticly to a scientist. Either is easy to imagine. Kalm gave you good advice when he advised you to take the L and move on - you should apply that advice to this situation too. Your momma said there'd be days like this

At least you're putting more effort into your replies. I can appreciate that. Now run along boy, the adults are talking.