Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

I don't think permanent immunity is a condition of sterilizing immunity. I say that because of the following statement in the article at https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... lem-152204:
Although even if sterilising immunity is induced initially, this may change over time as immune responses wane and viral evolution occurs.
So, at least in that author's opinion, it is possible to have sterilizing immunity that wanes. The author is described as a "Clinical Research Fellow in Viral Immunology and Veterinary Surgeon, University of Cambridge." So I have no reason to believe she doesn't know what she is talking about.

So I don't know if it's correct to say that a vaccine does not induce sterilizing immunity because the immunity wanes and boosters are needed.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Hello Omicron… :ohno:

But on a side note…science is still cool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 418127.amp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

And BionTech is already testing the Pfizer vax against the new variant and says it can produce updated vaccines within 100 days.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... bfkbDN5N5k
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:21 pm Hello Omicron… :ohno:

But on a side note…science is still cool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 418127.amp
I thought the new variant was going to be Nu?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:20 pm I don't think permanent immunity is a condition of sterilizing immunity. I say that because of the following statement in the article at https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... lem-152204:
Although even if sterilising immunity is induced initially, this may change over time as immune responses wane and viral evolution occurs.
So, at least in that author's opinion, it is possible to have sterilizing immunity that wanes. The author is described as a "Clinical Research Fellow in Viral Immunology and Veterinary Surgeon, University of Cambridge." So I have no reason to believe she doesn't know what she is talking about.

So I don't know if it's correct to say that a vaccine does not induce sterilizing immunity because the immunity wanes and boosters are needed.
Amazing dude! You need to reach out to the International Union of Immunological Societies and let them know they have been wrong all these years as to what sterilizing means!

You keep barking up that tree of some mathematical model that perfectly fits into your definition of 100% and forever when that was never stated.

The COVID vaccines are leaky, and your article is clearly outdated as it was published in Jan of 2021, when the vaccines first came out. But they do ask the question, albeit they have an incorrect assumption as an answer, because we see cases, hospitalizations and deaths happen...not just infected without symptoms like they hypothesized.

From your article:
What would a lack of sterilising immunity mean for those vaccinated with the new COVID vaccines? Quite simply it means that if you encounter the virus after vaccination, you may get infected but show no symptoms. This is because your vaccine-induced immune response is not able to stop every virus particle from replicating.
You also never answered my question in regards to vaccine effectiveness at the 240 day mark on the graph I provided. What's happening there? What's the effectiveness at the 240 - 270 day mark?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

Biden issues travel ban to 8 African countries.
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-south-afri ... 57468.html
Remember when Biden (and JSO) said travel bans were useless and racist? Good times.

Now you have you’re own African travel ban, you racist..

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

Florida reports lowest daily coronavirus cases per capita in nation
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/florid ... -in-nation
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:21 pm Hello Omicron… :ohno:

But on a side note…science is still cool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 418127.amp
Omnicron? WTF? :? What were the Nu and Xi variants?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:43 pm Florida reports lowest daily coronavirus cases per capita in nation
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/florid ... -in-nation
Mask requirements were stricter for us in Florida vs Minnesota. USPS in FL required mask, rental car van and office required mask, not in MN. FL stores had the same plexiglas as other states, same mask suggestions in common indoor areas, etc. Not as wide open as I expected.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:40 pm Biden issues travel ban to 8 African countries.
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-south-afri ... 57468.html
Remember when Biden (and JSO) said travel bans were useless and racist? Good times.

Now you have you’re own African travel ban, you racist..

So racist. I'm literally shaking right now.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:20 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:43 pm Florida reports lowest daily coronavirus cases per capita in nation
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/florid ... -in-nation
Mask requirements were stricter for us in Florida vs Minnesota. USPS in FL required mask, rental car van and office required mask, not in MN. FL stores had the same plexiglas as other states, same mask suggestions in common indoor areas, etc. Not as wide open as I expected.
I just spent a week in N FL (11/12-11/19, St Augustine mostly) amd never wore a mask). Of course ignored ‘suggestions‘.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:08 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:20 pm

Mask requirements were stricter for us in Florida vs Minnesota. USPS in FL required mask, rental car van and office required mask, not in MN. FL stores had the same plexiglas as other states, same mask suggestions in common indoor areas, etc. Not as wide open as I expected.
I just spent a week in N FL (11/12-11/19, St Augustine mostly) amd never wore a mask). Of course ignored ‘suggestions‘.
Did you go in the post office or a rental car business? More stuff posted in Florida, Daytona, Mt Dora, Ormand Beach, Titusville and Orlando than Minnesota. People appear more careful than Minnesota too. I was there 11/13-11/20.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:21 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:08 pm
I just spent a week in N FL (11/12-11/19, St Augustine mostly) amd never wore a mask). Of course ignored ‘suggestions‘.
Did you go in the post office or a rental car business? More stuff posted in Florida, Daytona, Mt Dora, Ormand Beach, Titusville and Orlando than Minnesota. People appear more careful than Minnesota too. I was there 11/13-11/20.
No and no I drove. If you ignored mask signs I bet no one would have said shit..
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:38 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:21 pm

Did you go in the post office or a rental car business? More stuff posted in Florida, Daytona, Mt Dora, Ormand Beach, Titusville and Orlando than Minnesota. People appear more careful than Minnesota too. I was there 11/13-11/20.
No and no I drove. If you ignored mask signs I bet no one would have said shit..
People in Florida are more careful than the leftwing media leads us to believe.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:38 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:21 pm

Did you go in the post office or a rental car business? More stuff posted in Florida, Daytona, Mt Dora, Ormand Beach, Titusville and Orlando than Minnesota. People appear more careful than Minnesota too. I was there 11/13-11/20.
No and no I drove. If you ignored mask signs I bet no one would have said shit..
Yeah. I'm going to wait a couple days before I worry about this variant.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by BDKJMU »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:19 pm
kalm wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:21 pm Hello Omicron… :ohno:

But on a side note…science is still cool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 418127.amp
Omnicron? WTF? :? What were the Nu and Xi variants?
Well its called the NU and Omnicron variant. Take your pick.
https://www.newsweek.com/nu-b-1-1-529-c ... ng-1653538
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Oops
More than 100 kids receive accidental double-dose of COVID-19 vaccine at Iowa clinic
https://news.yahoo.com/more-100-kids-re ... 00785.html
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:25 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:38 pm
No and no I drove. If you ignored mask signs I bet no one would have said shit..
Yeah. I'm going to wait a couple days before I worry about this variant.

Wise.

But a reminder that it’s still around.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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kalm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:04 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:25 pm

Yeah. I'm going to wait a couple days before I worry about this variant.

Wise.

But a reminder that it’s still around.
Watched a BBC clip of a Dr Angelique Coetzee, who is some bigwig medical chairperson over in S Africa saying it was a "storm in a teacup" and she didn't know why everyone was making such a big deal, as all she's seen so far are mild cases. She also admitted it's still very early, so she doesn't have the full picture.

Now I understand her need to keep things calm by saying such things, but obviously hope it's more truth than lies to allay fear.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:28 am
kalm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:04 am

Wise.

But a reminder that it’s still around.
Watched a BBC clip of a Dr Angelique Coetzee, who is some bigwig medical chairperson over in S Africa saying it was a "storm in a teacup" and she didn't know why everyone was making such a big deal, as all she's seen so far are mild cases. She also admitted it's still very early, so she doesn't have the full picture.

Now I understand her need to keep things calm by saying such things, but obviously hope it's more truth than lies to allay fear.
Why would it be lies?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote:
kalm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:04 am Wise.

But a reminder that it’s still around.
Watched a BBC clip of a Dr Angelique Coetzee, who is some bigwig medical chairperson over in S Africa saying it was a "storm in a teacup" and she didn't know why everyone was making such a big deal, as all she's seen so far are mild cases. She also admitted it's still very early, so she doesn't have the full picture.

Now I understand her need to keep things calm by saying such things, but obviously hope it's more truth than lies to allay fear.
Maybe they should name it the Trump variant ... ;)

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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kalm wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:49 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:28 am

Watched a BBC clip of a Dr Angelique Coetzee, who is some bigwig medical chairperson over in S Africa saying it was a "storm in a teacup" and she didn't know why everyone was making such a big deal, as all she's seen so far are mild cases. She also admitted it's still very early, so she doesn't have the full picture.

Now I understand her need to keep things calm by saying such things, but obviously hope it's more truth than lies to allay fear.
Why would it be lies?
Because it's early. I believe the lady, just saying I hope she wasn't fudging because she didn't want mass hysteria. I want the less lethal version. The one that hopefully is one more step to Covid burning itself out.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:21 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:08 pm
I just spent a week in N FL (11/12-11/19, St Augustine mostly) amd never wore a mask). Of course ignored ‘suggestions‘.
Did you go in the post office or a rental car business? More stuff posted in Florida, Daytona, Mt Dora, Ormand Beach, Titusville and Orlando than Minnesota. People appear more careful than Minnesota too. I was there 11/13-11/20.
A post office is federal property. EVERY post office in the country has that requirement, as does any fed property.
Car rentals in an airport the same nationwide fed mask requirement at every airport.

No where I went in northeast FL- mostly St John Co (St Augustine) (Trump win by 26%) and Nassau County (Trump won by 46%).do I recall seeing a ‘masks required’, and everywhere I went I saw the majority of people not wearing them.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:47 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:20 pm I don't think permanent immunity is a condition of sterilizing immunity. I say that because of the following statement in the article at https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... lem-152204:



So, at least in that author's opinion, it is possible to have sterilizing immunity that wanes. The author is described as a "Clinical Research Fellow in Viral Immunology and Veterinary Surgeon, University of Cambridge." So I have no reason to believe she doesn't know what she is talking about.

So I don't know if it's correct to say that a vaccine does not induce sterilizing immunity because the immunity wanes and boosters are needed.
Amazing dude! You need to reach out to the International Union of Immunological Societies and let them know they have been wrong all these years as to what sterilizing means!
I don't think I have an issue with what a vaccine causing sterilizing immunity means. It looks like it means that it stops you from becoming infected. My question is more about the point at which a vaccine is considered "leaky." That is because I don't know if ANY vaccine stops 100% of the persons receiving it from becoming infected. If the standard for not being "leaky" is that nobody who receives the vaccine can ever become infected, I don't know if there is any such thing as a vaccine that is not "leaky."
You keep barking up that tree of some mathematical model that perfectly fits into your definition of 100% and forever when that was never stated.
I'm not talking about mathematical models. I am just looking up vaccines to see if any of them are considered to be 100% effective. What I have not seen stated is the point at which a vaccine becomes "leaky." I also wonder if "leaky" refers more to a vaccine that is not expected to stop infection in any cases.
The COVID vaccines are leaky, and your article is clearly outdated as it was published in Jan of 2021, when the vaccines first came out. But they do ask the question, albeit they have an incorrect assumption as an answer, because we see cases, hospitalizations and deaths happen...not just infected without symptoms like they hypothesized.
Again, your position appears to be premised on the idea that a vaccine has to prevent infection in 100% of individuals or it is "leaky." I think it's quite possible that, if that's the standard, there is no such thing as a vaccine that is not "leaky."
From your article:
What would a lack of sterilising immunity mean for those vaccinated with the new COVID vaccines? Quite simply it means that if you encounter the virus after vaccination, you may get infected but show no symptoms. This is because your vaccine-induced immune response is not able to stop every virus particle from replicating.
So what if 60% of the people who are vaccinated have responses that prevent infection completely for 4 months. For 4 months the vaccine induces responses in that 60% are able to stop every virus particle from replication. That 60% has sterilizing immunity for 4 months.
You also never answered my question in regards to vaccine effectiveness at the 240 day mark on the graph I provided. What's happening there? What's the effectiveness at the 240 - 270 day mark?
I will go back and look at that. But I doubt if the authors claim there is a "negative' effectiveness at any point.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:08 pm
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At the bottom is a link to the study (842k matched cohort pairs) and the picture can be found on slide 33. Notice the bolded part below in the quote box, "from day 211 and onwards no effectiveness could be detected". To me, it even looks to show negative effectiveness around day 240, or am I not supposed to make that assumption from the graph? That sure looks like it's telling a person that after you get no benefit, it actually dips into catching COVID at a higher rate than the unvaccinated.
Ok. I hope this is what you were talking about with respect to your question. I took a look at the pre-print. As far as I can tell that is model output with the solid line being the point estimate at any given point in time and the grey are being the 95% confidence interval. I did not read the whole thing but did "Finds" and such to try to see what they are saying. It does not look to me like they are claiming that the effectiveness ever goes "negative."

They would not do that because what they appear to be looking at, which is good, is the 95% confidence interval and the upper limit of 95% confidence never drops below zero.

Notice that they say no effectiveness could be detected by about day 211. That appears to be because that is where the lower limit of 95% confidence appears to drop below zero. If you go to Table 2 of the pre print you will see that the point estimate for effectiveness at ">201 days" is actually 23%. But the 95% confidence interval "Adjusted for age and baseline date" is 0 - 41%. I think that's why they say effectiveness can't be detected at that point. The lower limit of 95% confidence is 0.

I suspect that if were were able to talk to the investigators they would say that the idea of "negative effectiveness" is nonsensical. But no way to know for sure. But I am pretty sure they would say that their model does not SHOW "negative effectiveness" in any case because the upper limit of 95% confidence never gets to 0.
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