Coronavirus COVID-19
- SDHornet
- Supporter
- Posts: 19443
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
- I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Good take on the botched messaging by "the experts":
- SDHornet
- Supporter
- Posts: 19443
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
- I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
LoCkDoWnS wOrK
- SeattleGriz
- Supporter
- Posts: 16557
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
- I am a fan of: Montana
- A.K.A.: PhxGriz
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
I'd like to expand further, but I only have access through my phone. In regards to his prediction, you and Klam both seem to be skipping over the part where he claimed COVID was to become endemic. That would mean past the initial wave, you will see it come back for cold and flu season, which it did. His other predictions are spot on as well in regards to deaths and immunity.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:39 pmAs Kalm suggested, that opinion was pretty much nuked by subsequent events. Note that the notes at the top say it's about Switzerland and note that it was originally written on June 10, 2020. Below are images for Switzerland from the Worldometer site as it is now. Look at the date scale cross the bottom at what was going on around June 10 then look at what has happened since. He was clearly wrong about what was going to happen. Take this quote for instance:
What happened later in Switzerland is clearly completely inconsistent with his point of view at the time. The guy was completely wrong.When the initial worst case scenarios didn’t come true anywhere, some now still cling to models predicting a second wave. Let’s leave them their hopes
And BTW, I followed the IHME model for some time in detail. It did well for the United States overall. The whole time I was recording predictions and checking later the number of deaths predicted was within the uncertainty interval. If you had to say anything based on the point estimate (the center line) it UNDER stated what was going to happen.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
- JohnStOnge
- Egalitarian
- Posts: 20314
- Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
- I am a fan of: McNeese State
- A.K.A.: JohnStOnge
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?
Deep Purple: No One Came
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?
Deep Purple: No One Came
- SeattleGriz
- Supporter
- Posts: 16557
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
- I am a fan of: Montana
- A.K.A.: PhxGriz
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
At what cost?JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:26 pmCalifornia has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
- Winterborn
- Supporter
- Posts: 8812
- Joined: Wed May 25, 2016 2:33 pm
- I am a fan of: Beer and Diesel Pickups
- Location: Wherever I hang my hat
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Well the Governor is in the hotseat and might be recalled.SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:00 amAt what cost?JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:26 pm
California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
- Winterborn
- Supporter
- Posts: 8812
- Joined: Wed May 25, 2016 2:33 pm
- I am a fan of: Beer and Diesel Pickups
- Location: Wherever I hang my hat
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Pfizer and J&J looking to cash in on the seasonality of COVID.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer- ... onths.htmlPfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a booster dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated. His comments were made public Thursday but were taped April 1.
Bourla said it’s possible people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually.
“A likely scenario is that there will be likely a need for a third dose, somewhere between six and 12 months and then from there, there will be an annual revaccination, but all of that needs to be confirmed. And again, the variants will play a key role,” he told CNBC’s Bertha Coombs during an event with CVS Health.
“It is extremely important to suppress the pool of people that can be susceptible to the virus,” Bourla said.
The comment comes after Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky told CNBC in February that people may need to get vaccinated against Covid-19 annually, just like seasonal flu shots.
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
- SDHornet
- Supporter
- Posts: 19443
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
- I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
CA: 1545 deaths per 1MJohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:26 pmCalifornia has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.
FL: 1605 (should be a lot worse considering it loaded with retired/older people, no?)
TX: 1718
So give up your freedoms for marginal improvement?
- UNI88
- Supporter
- Posts: 20147
- Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
- I am a fan of: UNI
- Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
John has a penchant for focusing on the data that supports his bias.SDHornet wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:48 amCA: 1545 deaths per 1MJohnStOnge wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:26 pm
California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.
FL: 1605 (should be a lot worse considering it loaded with retired/older people, no?)
TX: 1718
So give up your freedoms for marginal improvement?
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
-
- Supporter
- Posts: 59476
- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
- I am a fan of: Eastern
- A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
- Location: Northern Palouse
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
He’s still right. Also many factors including exactly what freedoms have been lost and for how long, and economic outcomes.
Besides, what’s a few thousand more deaths and long term health and economic issues?
- SDHornet
- Supporter
- Posts: 19443
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
- I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Numerically, sure. Realistically? No. Economy shut down and civil liberties taken for an insignificant difference compared to lesser actions/restrictions taken. No brainer to anyone with a bit of common sense.
- UNI88
- Supporter
- Posts: 20147
- Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
- I am a fan of: UNI
- Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm
- SDHornet
- Supporter
- Posts: 19443
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
- I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
ShUtDoWn UnTiL tHeRe ArE nO dEaThSUNI88 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:13 pmIt's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.
-
- Supporter
- Posts: 59476
- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
- I am a fan of: Eastern
- A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
- Location: Northern Palouse
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Take a cue from the “not cut and dried”. Still many questions. Answer is typically in the middle. Countries with worse outcomes like us are not in the middle.SDHornet wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:17 pmShUtDoWn UnTiL tHeRe ArE nO dEaThSUNI88 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:13 pm
It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.
- SeattleGriz
- Supporter
- Posts: 16557
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
- I am a fan of: Montana
- A.K.A.: PhxGriz
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Can you provide us with a list of how each country is tracking cases and deaths? Then we can compare apples to apples as opposed to guessing, or otherwise known as scaremongering.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
-
- Supporter
- Posts: 59476
- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
- I am a fan of: Eastern
- A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
- Location: Northern Palouse
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Knock yourself out.SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:52 pmCan you provide us with a list of how each country is tracking cases and deaths? Then we can compare apples to apples as opposed to guessing, or otherwise known as scaremongering.
- AZGrizFan
- Supporter
- Posts: 59959
- Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:40 pm
- I am a fan of: Sexual Chocolate
- Location: Just to the right of center
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.UNI88 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:13 pmIt's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
-
- Supporter
- Posts: 59476
- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
- I am a fan of: Eastern
- A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
- Location: Northern Palouse
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
There will be more comprehensive post ops on everything from deaths to hospitalizations to long term effects, to economics.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:52 pmThe deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.UNI88 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:13 pm
It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.
Certainty at this point is highly subjective.
- Gil Dobie
- Supporter
- Posts: 30944
- Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:45 pm
- I am a fan of: Norse Dakota State
- Location: Historic Leduc Estate
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
California's median age is 40, which is higher than Florida's median age per case, 34. That my friend is a significant difference for Covid.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:52 pmThe deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.UNI88 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:13 pm
It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.
- SDHornet
- Supporter
- Posts: 19443
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:50 pm
- I am a fan of: Sacramento State Hornets
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Median age sounds like a useless stat (think median home price, or median income). But no per wiki, CA's median age is 37 and FL is 42.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... median_age
The demographic breakdown for CA is as follows:
Age Range: % of pop - % of cases - % deaths
0-17: 23% - 13% - 0%
18-49: 44% - 57% - 7% -
50-64: 18% - 195 - 20%
65+: 16% - 11% - 74%
These demographics have not changed much over the past year here in CA. We knew who were at risk yet schools and the economy was shutdown when it was the old and weak that had the greatest risk of the China virus. Fucking clown world.
- SeattleGriz
- Supporter
- Posts: 16557
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
- I am a fan of: Montana
- A.K.A.: PhxGriz
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
By who? The same guys that got everything wrong in the first place?
The analysis is going to be a total trainwreck.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
-
- Supporter
- Posts: 59476
- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
- I am a fan of: Eastern
- A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
- Location: Northern Palouse
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
The people I listened to got most of it right. Then again, I wasn’t in denial searching contrarianism at every turn.SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:52 pmBy who? The same guys that got everything wrong in the first place?
The analysis is going to be a total trainwreck.
- SeattleGriz
- Supporter
- Posts: 16557
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
- I am a fan of: Montana
- A.K.A.: PhxGriz
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
Everybody you listened to should have gotten most of it right. It wasn't rocket surgery. Just had to pay attention to past history.kalm wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:05 pmThe people I listened to got most of it right. Then again, I wasn’t in denial searching contrarianism at every turn.SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:52 pm
By who? The same guys that got everything wrong in the first place?
The analysis is going to be a total trainwreck.
Why do you think I brought up the "art" of science so much in this thread. Because science isn't always cut and dry, but there are those who can take the current picture, overlay it with the past and make wise decisions. We didn't hear enough from these people.
Analysis will still be a train wreck. Topic is way too politicized.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
- UNI88
- Supporter
- Posts: 20147
- Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
- I am a fan of: UNI
- Location: the foggy, woggy banks Of the Limpopo River
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
But Florida had few restrictions and California was very restrictive. Are old people in Florida smarter than old people in California and knew that they should quarantine to protect themselves while old people in California trusted the government to protect them? You might be proving the argument that SD has been making for quite some time.
Being wrong about a topic is called post partisanism - kalm