Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SDHornet wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 8:25 pm Oh.
I notice the image references partial vaccination rates. It's hard to see what is going on with that image. But if they are talking about cumulative case rates, the top 3 States with the most vaccination coverage either in terms of "fully vaccinated" or "boosted" are not the top three in terms of case rates.

There is an interesting thing in that Rhode Island, which is 1st in Fully Vaccinated rate and 3rd in Boosted Rate, is also first in case rate. But the other two States (Vermont and Maine) that are in the top 3 by either measure (Fully Vaccinated or Boosted Rate), are ranked 44th and 47th in case rates. Or at least they were as of yesterday and things won't change much in one day.

The 8 of the top 10 for vaccinations being in the top 10 for infections isn't true either. Rhode Island is the only State among the top 10 in either fully vaccinated or boosted rate that is also among the top 10 in case rates.

BTW, Rhode Island is also 2nd among States in population density and population is a factor in case rates.

Aside from that, looking at three States or eight States is an example of ignoring the forrest and focusing on trees that flatter a point of view. If you look at all the States there is unquestionably a very significant association such that States with higher fully vaccinated and/or boosted rates tend to have lower cumulative case rates.

What you are seeing in that tweet is misinformation. Shocker. It's what people on the anti vax side do.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Wed May 18, 2022 6:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

BTW I intend to do an analysis of how things have gone since the start of Omicron. But it takes more work than just looking at overall cumulative case and death rates. I have to painstakingly establish what the cumulative case and death rates were as of December 19, 2021 in each State. I'm using December 19 because the fact that Omicron had become the dominant variant was announced on December 20. So I need to subtract cumulative rates as of the end of December 19 from cumulative rates as of when I do the analysis in order to get case and death rates for the Omicron period.

I enjoy doing that sort of thing but it takes a while and I am not going to push myself since this is recreation.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 5:53 pm BTW I intend to do an analysis of how things have gone since the start of Omicron. But it takes more work than just looking at overall cumulative case and death rates. I have to painstakingly establish what the cumulative case and death rates were as of December 19, 2021 in each State. I'm using December 19 because the fact that Omicron had become the dominant variant was announced on December 20. So I need to subtract cumulative rates as of the end of December 19 from cumulative rates as of when I do the analysis in order to get case and death rates for the Omicron period.

I enjoy doing that sort of thing but it takes a while and I am not going to push myself since this is recreation.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 5:53 pm BTW I intend to do an analysis of how things have gone since the start of Omicron. But it takes more work than just looking at overall cumulative case and death rates. I have to painstakingly establish what the cumulative case and death rates were as of December 19, 2021 in each State. I'm using December 19 because the fact that Omicron had become the dominant variant was announced on December 20. So I need to subtract cumulative rates as of the end of December 19 from cumulative rates as of when I do the analysis in order to get case and death rates for the Omicron period.

I enjoy doing that sort of thing but it takes a while and I am not going to push myself since this is recreation.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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BDKJMU wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 6:25 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 5:53 pm BTW I intend to do an analysis of how things have gone since the start of Omicron. But it takes more work than just looking at overall cumulative case and death rates. I have to painstakingly establish what the cumulative case and death rates were as of December 19, 2021 in each State. I'm using December 19 because the fact that Omicron had become the dominant variant was announced on December 20. So I need to subtract cumulative rates as of the end of December 19 from cumulative rates as of when I do the analysis in order to get case and death rates for the Omicron period.

I enjoy doing that sort of thing but it takes a while and I am not going to push myself since this is recreation.
We’ll all be waiting with baited breath..
Hey, I'll report the results however they turn out. I do wonder if I'll still see the correlations if I just look at what has happened since Omicron came to dominate.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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I wrote an e mail to the Harvard guy who is co-author of the study at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/. I'll let you know what he says if he responds. I have been pleasantly surprised over the years at how frequently I get replies when I do stuff like this. Here is the text of the e mail:

Dear Dr. Subrahamian:

I just read your paper at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ . It looks to me like, if you had just done a correlation between county by county case rates over the 7 day period and vaccination rates, you would have gotten a highly significant negative association suggesting that case rates tended to be lower when vaccination rates were higher.

When I looked at Figure 2, it looked to me like, though there is kind of an aberration with the lowest vaccination rate county group having one of the lower medians, the general trend suggested is negative. It looks like the medians tend to get lower as the vaccination rates get higher.

So I looked at the numbers in Table S2 of your Supplementary Materials document. I ran a Spearman correlation between the Fully Vaccinated category levels and the numbers in the cases per 100K column. I got rs = -0.789, p = 0.00047.

I will mention that I don't know what is going on with the cases per 100K numbers in the table. They are different than what I would get. For example, for the lowest vaccination rate column I would calculate 2619/11.14003 = 235.10 while the cases per 100K number in the table is 298.29. Did y'all do some kind of weighting?

In any case, when I use the numbers I get with my own cases per 100K calculations I still get rs = -0.721, p = 0.0024.

I think it is pretty likely that if you just ran a county by county correlation with the numbers underlying those summaries with 2947 pairs you would get a much smaller p value than either fo the two I got. It looks to me like there was a very highly significant negative association.

What are your thoughts?

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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And work is back to mask wearing as of Monday as the local area is in CDC's "high" category. Super. I had my booster shot something like 6 months ago, what's the rule on just getting one if you want one these days? Still under 50 so I don't think I qualify.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:39 pm I wrote an e mail to the Harvard guy who is co-author of the study at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/. I'll let you know what he says if he responds. I have been pleasantly surprised over the years at how frequently I get replies when I do stuff like this. Here is the text of the e mail:

Dear Dr. Subrahamian:

I just read your paper at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/ . It looks to me like, if you had just done a correlation between county by county case rates over the 7 day period and vaccination rates, you would have gotten a highly significant negative association suggesting that case rates tended to be lower when vaccination rates were higher.

When I looked at Figure 2, it looked to me like, though there is kind of an aberration with the lowest vaccination rate county group having one of the lower medians, the general trend suggested is negative. It looks like the medians tend to get lower as the vaccination rates get higher.

So I looked at the numbers in Table S2 of your Supplementary Materials document. I ran a Spearman correlation between the Fully Vaccinated category levels and the numbers in the cases per 100K column. I got rs = -0.789, p = 0.00047.

I will mention that I don't know what is going on with the cases per 100K numbers in the table. They are different than what I would get. For example, for the lowest vaccination rate column I would calculate 2619/11.14003 = 235.10 while the cases per 100K number in the table is 298.29. Did y'all do some kind of weighting?

In any case, when I use the numbers I get with my own cases per 100K calculations I still get rs = -0.721, p = 0.0024.

I think it is pretty likely that if you just ran a county by county correlation with the numbers underlying those summaries with 2947 pairs you would get a much smaller p value than either fo the two I got. It looks to me like there was a very highly significant negative association.

What are your thoughts?

Respectfully,
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by HI54UNI »

GannonFan wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:20 am And work is back to mask wearing as of Monday as the local area is in CDC's "high" category. Super. I had my booster shot something like 6 months ago, what's the rule on just getting one if you want one these days? Still under 50 so I don't think I qualify.
I think they will give a booster to anyone that wants one. My under 50 wife recently got one although she works in health care and was forced into it so that may make a difference.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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HI54UNI wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:41 am
GannonFan wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:20 am And work is back to mask wearing as of Monday as the local area is in CDC's "high" category. Super. I had my booster shot something like 6 months ago, what's the rule on just getting one if you want one these days? Still under 50 so I don't think I qualify.
I think they will give a booster to anyone that wants one. My under 50 wife recently got one although she works in health care and was forced into it so that may make a difference.
Yeah, I just did a quick CVS search online and it said I could get one as early as today even. Will have to decide to do that or wait for the Omicron-tailored one, if they give one out in the late summer or fall.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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The results of the thing i did with just looking at case and death rates rates for the Omicron period are interesting. When I say "Omicron Period" I mean I calculated case and death rates by State using the number of cases and deaths reported for each State December 20, 2021 through May 19, 2022. I picked December 20 because that is the day on which it was announced that Omicron had become the predominant variant (see https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/o ... y/2712039/).

The end of the story is that there is not sufficient evidence to say that vaccination rate is associated with case rates during the Omicron period. When everything is considered, the only thing that "significantly" matters with respect to case rate is population density. Higher vaccination rates are, however, associated with lower death rates. The other thing that matters with death rates is percent of the population >65.

If you just look at individual associations, higher vaccination rates are actually associated with higher case rates. However, the associations are no longer "significant" when you control for population density.

Here is the correlation matrix:

Image

Yellow highlight means the coefficient is significant at >95% confidence and <99% confidence. Blue highlight means it is significant at >99% confidence. Notice that the highest correlation with case rate is population density. But there are also significant correlations between case rates and vaccination rates for associations whereby states with higher vaccination rates tend to have HIGHER case rates.

But that goes away when the effect of each variable is assessed while controlling for the others. I did backwards elimination ordinary least squares regression the same way I typically do it with environmental data with case rate as the dependent variable. I started off with proportion fully vaccinated, proportion boosted, proportion >65, and population density in the model as the independent variables. Everything dropped out except population density. When you control for population density, there is not sufficient evidence to say there is an effect one way or the other of vaccination rates.

And you can see from the correlation matrix that States with higher population densities tend to have higher vaccination rates. So you can have a thing where people think they are seeing higher vaccination rates "causing" higher case rates when what they may be seeing the effect of population density.

The death rates part of the picture is pretty straightforward and as expected. There are "significant" correlations with vaccination rates such that death rates tend to be lower when vaccination rates are higher. The only weird thing is that the coefficient for fully vaccinated rate vs. death rate is higher than that for boosted rate vs. death rate. I have speculative thoughts about why that may be so.

When I did the backwards elimination ordinary least squares regression thing with death rate as the dependent variable I ended up with the final model including fully vaccinated rate and percent of population >65. That's pretty much what one would expect. I went ahead and did a model where I skipped the elimination process and just made it boosted rate and percent of population >65. That worked too.

So, State by State with all other things being equal, higher vaccination rate is associated with lower death rate. At the same time with all other things being equal, more people >65 tends to mean a higher death rate.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Get ready for Monkey Pox. Odd how life keeps imitating the Simpsons.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:45 am Get ready for Monkey Pox. Odd how life keeps imitating the Simpsons.

Taking the risk of being totally wrong, I will say that I do not think this is going to be all that big a deal. Nothing like COVID-19 anyway.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:45 am Get ready for Monkey Pox. Odd how life keeps imitating the Simpsons.

Never seen that episode. :rofl:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:19 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:45 am Get ready for Monkey Pox. Odd how life keeps imitating the Simpsons.

Taking the risk of being totally wrong, I will say that I do not think this is going to be all that big a deal. Nothing like COVID-19 anyway.
The China Virus wasn't a big deal to anyone under the age of 65 that didn't have 3+ comorbidities. :coffee:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 7:45 am Get ready for Monkey Pox. Odd how life keeps imitating the Simpsons.

Sounds like nothing to worry about yet if you aren’t queer..
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Here we go again with a worthless mask mandate..
https://news.yahoo.com/philadelphia-rei ... 01891.html
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Son's vaccinated friend came over Saturday afternoon, ate dinner with us and then spent the night. Son and him shared a bowl of popcorn watching a movie before bed.

Son's friend was developing Covid symptoms when he first came over and tested positive for Covid last night (Monday).

Everyone in our house tested negative the last two days
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:48 pm Son's vaccinated friend came over Saturday afternoon, ate dinner with us and then spent the night. Son and him shared a bowl of popcorn watching a movie before bed.

Son's friend was developing Covid symptoms when he first came over and tested positive for Covid last night (Monday).

Everyone in our house tested negative the last two days
Update. Just found out from my son that his friend's parents, who are fully vaccinated and boosted (and thankful for the protection they provide), are forcing their son to self isolate in his room, won't allow him in the same room as them and won't allow him to pet his cat for fear of giving it Covid.

When we thought our youngest had COVID, but didn't, I licked the fucking spit ring off his drinking glass in the hopes of catching COVID. :lol:. Didn't even catch his cold.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 7:55 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:48 pm Son's vaccinated friend came over Saturday afternoon, ate dinner with us and then spent the night. Son and him shared a bowl of popcorn watching a movie before bed.

Son's friend was developing Covid symptoms when he first came over and tested positive for Covid last night (Monday).

Everyone in our house tested negative the last two days
Update. Just found out from my son that his friend's parents, who are fully vaccinated and boosted (and thankful for the protection they provide), are forcing their son to self isolate in his room, won't allow him in the same room as them and won't allow him to pet his cat for fear of giving it Covid.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

AZGrizFan wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 8:08 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 7:55 am

Update. Just found out from my son that his friend's parents, who are fully vaccinated and boosted (and thankful for the protection they provide), are forcing their son to self isolate in his room, won't allow him in the same room as them and won't allow him to pet his cat for fear of giving it Covid.
That’s the Seattle drone-like morons we’ve come to know and love…. :dunce: :dunce: :dunce:

We’re creating an entire generation afraid of their own shadow.
It's got to be the mom. She's batshit crazy. The husband was the guy who took me to the Montana at UW game and he was fine with me being unvaccinated.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Oh. :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Winterborn »

SDHornet wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 4:41 pm Oh. :lol:

I was reading about that this morning. :rofl:

Guessing this is a non-story in just about all the media outlets for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

Winterborn wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:16 am
SDHornet wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 4:41 pm Oh. :lol:

I was reading about that this morning. :rofl:

Guessing this is a non-story in just about all the media outlets for the foreseeable future.
I've been loosely following her since her story first came out and she's been nothing but conniving and deceptive.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Stupid shit was boosted for the second time on May 18. Ten days ago. Thankful for the protection four shots gave him. Enjoy the pseudouridine.

I still haven't caught Covid.

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