Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Another indication, to me, that it is not a symetrical situation:

I hadn't mentioned it yet but another thing I did yesterday was just model COVID-19 death rates by State based on population density, percent population > =65, percent population in poverty, and percent Black population. Percent >=65 and percent Black dropped out so I was left with population density and percent in poverty. Then I controlled for that and ranked States by whether their actual case rate was higher or lower than the expected value based on their population density and percent in poverty.

6 of the top 10 states in terms of having more cases than would be expected based on density and poverty are States where Republicans control the governorship and both houses of the legislature. Only 1 is a State where Democrats are in control like that. The other 3 are States with divided government. If you go to the top 20 States that have more cases than should be expected based on density and poverty rate, 14 of them are States where Republicans control the governorship and both houses. Only 2 are States where Democrats are in control like that. 4 are divided government States.

Now, there are 21 States where Republicans are in control of everything vs. 14 States where Democrats are. But that is still way disproportionate.

Look, it is clear. This is not a situation where there is just as much of a problem on the Democrat side as there is on the Republican side. In addition to stuff like I just described, we have things like a high profile Republican Senator promoting Ivermectin as a cure for COVID-19. There is nothing remotely like that on the Democrat side.

It's not at all a "both sides are equally bad" thing.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:23 pm Another indication, to me, that it is not a symetrical situation:

I hadn't mentioned it yet but another thing I did yesterday was just model COVID-19 death rates by State based on population density, percent population > =65, percent population in poverty, and percent Black population. Percent >=65 and percent Black dropped out so I was left with population density and percent in poverty. Then I controlled for that and ranked States by whether their actual case rate was higher or lower than the expected value based on their population density and percent in poverty.

6 of the top 10 states in terms of having more cases than would be expected based on density and poverty are States where Republicans control the governorship and both houses of the legislature. Only 1 is a State where Democrats are in control like that. The other 3 are States with divided government. If you go to the top 20 States that have more cases than should be expected based on density and poverty rate, 14 of them are States where Republicans control the governorship and both houses. Only 2 are States where Democrats are in control like that. 4 are divided government States.

Now, there are 21 States where Republicans are in control of everything vs. 14 States where Democrats are. But that is still way disproportionate.

Look, it is clear. This is not a situation where there is just as much of a problem on the Democrat side as there is on the Republican side. In addition to stuff like I just described, we have things like a high profile Republican Senator promoting Ivermectin as a cure for COVID-19. There is nothing remotely like that on the Democrat side.

It's not at all a "both sides are equally bad" thing.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Just went through an exercise to show how ridiculous it is to suggest that the associations I've been talking about are suspect because of the claim that the COVID-19 deaths data are not reliable.

First, we all know that association does not necessarily mean causation. For example: If I run a correlation analysis on a random sample of adults in the United States for hair length vs. height, I will get a significant negative association. Longer hair will be associated with less height. But there is an obvious reason for that: Females tend to have longer hair than males and females also tend to be shorter than males. So we know that shorter hair does not cause greater height. So you can think about possible explanations like that when you see associations.

First, I looked at whether States totally controlled by Republicans have a higher COVID-19 death rate according to Worldometers data through yesterday than States totally controlled by Democrats do. The answer is "yes." The mean death rate for Republican controlled States is higher at 97% confidence.

So, why is that? Is it because it just so happens that States controlled by Republicans have over reported COVID-19 death rates to a greater extent than States controlled by Democrats have? Really? That's what the situation would have to be to ascribe that to inaccurate deaths reporting.

Then, I controlled for vaccination rate (boosted rate as of 8/31...which is the latest data I can just copy and paste) and population density. Guess what? When I did that the difference between Republican Controlled States and Democrat Controlled States went away. So what explains that?

Then I just controlled for population density. Guess what? The difference between Republican controlled States and Democrat controlled States did not go away. Yes, population density remained as a factor. But controlling for it did not eliminate Party Control as a factor.

Finally, I just controlled for vaccination rate. And you know what? the difference between Republican controlled States and Democrat controlled States went away. Imagine that. The difference between the two goes away when one accounts for State by State vaccination rate.

Do you seriously believe all that just HAPPENED to work out like that because COViD-19 death rates are not being accurately reported to a reasonable degree?

If you do, you have issues.

BTW, I controlled for population density because I think I saw some argument about rural vs. other. Population density should reasonably capture that. More rural States have lower population densities.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:19 pm Just went through an exercise to show how ridiculous it is to suggest that the associations I've been talking about are suspect because of the claim that the COVID-19 deaths data are not reliable.

First, we all know that association does not necessarily mean causation. For example: If I run a correlation analysis on a random sample of adults in the United States for hair length vs. height, I will get a significant negative association. Longer hair will be associated with less height. But there is an obvious reason for that: Females tend to have longer hair than males and females also tend to be shorter than males. So we know that shorter hair does not cause greater height. So you can think about possible explanations like that when you see associations.

First, I looked at whether States totally controlled by Republicans have a higher COVID-19 death rate according to Worldometers data through yesterday than States totally controlled by Democrats do. The answer is "yes." The mean death rate for Republican controlled States is higher at 97% confidence.

So, why is that? Is it because it just so happens that States controlled by Republicans have over reported COVID-19 death rates to a greater extent than States controlled by Democrats have? Really? That's what the situation would have to be to ascribe that to inaccurate deaths reporting.

Then, I controlled for vaccination rate (boosted rate as of 8/31...which is the latest data I can just copy and paste) and population density. Guess what? When I did that the difference between Republican Controlled States and Democrat Controlled States went away. So what explains that?

Then I just controlled for population density. Guess what? The difference between Republican controlled States and Democrat controlled States did not go away. Yes, population density remained as a factor. But controlling for it did not eliminate Party Control as a factor.

Finally, I just controlled for vaccination rate. And you know what? the difference between Republican controlled States and Democrat controlled States went away. Imagine that. The difference between the two goes away when one accounts for State by State vaccination rate.

Do you seriously believe all that just HAPPENED to work out like that because COViD-19 death rates are not being accurately reported to a reasonable degree?

If you do, you have issues.

BTW, I controlled for population density because I think I saw some argument about rural vs. other. Population density should reasonably capture that. More rural States have lower population densities.
More rural states may have less densities, but what about travel in those states to sports events, big city shopping centers etc.. Hair length is tangible, because you can base it on all people. We don't know how exposed everyone was to covid, and if covid deaths were reported exactly the same. Covid has too many moving parts to be even remotely accurate.. You are just finding crap, yes crap the fits you political agenda.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by GannonFan »

Gil Dobie wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:04 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:19 pm Just went through an exercise to show how ridiculous it is to suggest that the associations I've been talking about are suspect because of the claim that the COVID-19 deaths data are not reliable.

First, we all know that association does not necessarily mean causation. For example: If I run a correlation analysis on a random sample of adults in the United States for hair length vs. height, I will get a significant negative association. Longer hair will be associated with less height. But there is an obvious reason for that: Females tend to have longer hair than males and females also tend to be shorter than males. So we know that shorter hair does not cause greater height. So you can think about possible explanations like that when you see associations.

First, I looked at whether States totally controlled by Republicans have a higher COVID-19 death rate according to Worldometers data through yesterday than States totally controlled by Democrats do. The answer is "yes." The mean death rate for Republican controlled States is higher at 97% confidence.

So, why is that? Is it because it just so happens that States controlled by Republicans have over reported COVID-19 death rates to a greater extent than States controlled by Democrats have? Really? That's what the situation would have to be to ascribe that to inaccurate deaths reporting.

Then, I controlled for vaccination rate (boosted rate as of 8/31...which is the latest data I can just copy and paste) and population density. Guess what? When I did that the difference between Republican Controlled States and Democrat Controlled States went away. So what explains that?

Then I just controlled for population density. Guess what? The difference between Republican controlled States and Democrat controlled States did not go away. Yes, population density remained as a factor. But controlling for it did not eliminate Party Control as a factor.

Finally, I just controlled for vaccination rate. And you know what? the difference between Republican controlled States and Democrat controlled States went away. Imagine that. The difference between the two goes away when one accounts for State by State vaccination rate.

Do you seriously believe all that just HAPPENED to work out like that because COViD-19 death rates are not being accurately reported to a reasonable degree?

If you do, you have issues.

BTW, I controlled for population density because I think I saw some argument about rural vs. other. Population density should reasonably capture that. More rural States have lower population densities.
More rural states may have less densities, but what about travel in those states to sports events, big city shopping centers etc.. Hair length is tangible, because you can base it on all people. We don't know how exposed everyone was to covid, and if covid deaths were reported exactly the same. Covid has too many moving parts to be even remotely accurate.. You are just finding crap, yes crap the fits you political agenda.
Agreed, record keeping through this pandemic was abysmal. For a modern society, we really were in the blind for most of the time everywhere on this thing. The media wasn't very helpful either. We can blame Trump in part for some of the government bumbling, but there was plenty being bumbled that had nothing to do with him. There should be case studies on what went wrong at all levels of society that would cover decades of school going over them.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Click through and read the thread to be reminded of all the "science" we had with Covid restrictions.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

GannonFan wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:24 am
Gil Dobie wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:04 am

More rural states may have less densities, but what about travel in those states to sports events, big city shopping centers etc.. Hair length is tangible, because you can base it on all people. We don't know how exposed everyone was to covid, and if covid deaths were reported exactly the same. Covid has too many moving parts to be even remotely accurate.. You are just finding crap, yes crap the fits you political agenda.
Agreed, record keeping through this pandemic was abysmal. For a modern society, we really were in the blind for most of the time everywhere on this thing. The media wasn't very helpful either. We can blame Trump in part for some of the government bumbling, but there was plenty being bumbled that had nothing to do with him. There should be case studies on what went wrong at all levels of society that would cover decades of school going over them.
Here is the thing: If you want to dismiss the fact that there is a "statistically significant" association such that States controlled by Republicans generally have higher COVID-19 death rates than States controlled by Democrats do based on the deaths data being inaccurate, you have to come up with a reason why States controlled by Republicans would tend to over report COVID-19 deaths to a greater degree than States controlled by Democrats would. It's just not reasonably plausible.

And if you are going to argue that the even stronger association such that States with higher vaccination rates have lower death rates is the result of deaths data being inaccurate, you have to come up with a reason why States with lower vaccination rates tend to over report deaths more. Again: It's just not reasonably plausible.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Pandemic ‘immunity gap’ is probably behind surge in RSV cases, scientists say
That “immunity gap” from the last few years is probably behind the “unprecedented” early surge in RSV infections this year, scientists say – and it has thrown other seasonal respiratory viruses out of whack around the world.
...
“Decreased exposure to endemic viruses created an immunity gap – a group of susceptible individuals who avoided infection and therefore lack pathogen-specific immunity to protect against future infection,” Messacar and Baker wrote this summer in a commentary published in the medical journal The Lancet.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:55 pm
GannonFan wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:24 am

Agreed, record keeping through this pandemic was abysmal. For a modern society, we really were in the blind for most of the time everywhere on this thing. The media wasn't very helpful either. We can blame Trump in part for some of the government bumbling, but there was plenty being bumbled that had nothing to do with him. There should be case studies on what went wrong at all levels of society that would cover decades of school going over them.
Here is the thing: If you want to dismiss the fact that there is a "statistically significant" association such that States controlled by Republicans generally have higher COVID-19 death rates than States controlled by Democrats do based on the deaths data being inaccurate, you have to come up with a reason why States controlled by Republicans would tend to over report COVID-19 deaths to a greater degree than States controlled by Democrats would. It's just not reasonably plausible.

And if you are going to argue that the even stronger association such that States with higher vaccination rates have lower death rates is the result of deaths data being inaccurate, you have to come up with a reason why States with lower vaccination rates tend to over report deaths more. Again: It's just not reasonably plausible.
How are you adjusting for the greater wealth on the coasts that leads to greater health? Not only that, but better services on the coasts? When people in Montana have a bad illness, they come to Seattle for treatment.

Garbage in, garbage out.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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UNI88 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:03 pm Pandemic ‘immunity gap’ is probably behind surge in RSV cases, scientists say
That “immunity gap” from the last few years is probably behind the “unprecedented” early surge in RSV infections this year, scientists say – and it has thrown other seasonal respiratory viruses out of whack around the world.
...
“Decreased exposure to endemic viruses created an immunity gap – a group of susceptible individuals who avoided infection and therefore lack pathogen-specific immunity to protect against future infection,” Messacar and Baker wrote this summer in a commentary published in the medical journal The Lancet.
Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm
Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
Really? If that's true (and based on my unqualified opinion that RSV is a much greater threat to them) then giving a young child the COVID vaccine is beyond reckless.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:04 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:55 pm

Here is the thing: If you want to dismiss the fact that there is a "statistically significant" association such that States controlled by Republicans generally have higher COVID-19 death rates than States controlled by Democrats do based on the deaths data being inaccurate, you have to come up with a reason why States controlled by Republicans would tend to over report COVID-19 deaths to a greater degree than States controlled by Democrats would. It's just not reasonably plausible.

And if you are going to argue that the even stronger association such that States with higher vaccination rates have lower death rates is the result of deaths data being inaccurate, you have to come up with a reason why States with lower vaccination rates tend to over report deaths more. Again: It's just not reasonably plausible.
How are you adjusting for the greater wealth on the coasts that leads to greater health? Not only that, but better services on the coasts? When people in Montana have a bad illness, they come to Seattle for treatment.

Garbage in, garbage out.
i can adjust for per capita income. But i already adjusted for poverty rate so i doubt that will change anything. I think you are really reaching. it is not garbage in. it is a dataset with some error in it. But not much. The whole idea that COVID-19 deaths are being over stated is complete nonsense.

it's just a situation in which the macro data completely contradict what you've decided you want to believe. So you feel like you have to attack the validity of the data.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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UNI88 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:03 pm Pandemic ‘immunity gap’ is probably behind surge in RSV cases, scientists say
That “immunity gap” from the last few years is probably behind the “unprecedented” early surge in RSV infections this year, scientists say – and it has thrown other seasonal respiratory viruses out of whack around the world.
...
“Decreased exposure to endemic viruses created an immunity gap – a group of susceptible individuals who avoided infection and therefore lack pathogen-specific immunity to protect against future infection,” Messacar and Baker wrote this summer in a commentary published in the medical journal The Lancet.
Or Immunity THEFT - most kids have been exposed to COVID, and it is reeking havoc with their immunity system.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm
Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
More false anti-vax medical information from the King of it

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.32NB2CM
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm
Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
Link please. I sincerely doubt that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a link between getting mRNA vaccines and increased risk of RSV.

I think the idea that all of the social distancing, etc., resulting in an immunity gap makes sense. But I really doubt that getting a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is a factor.

I'm sure you must've read that somewhere so I expect you can provide a link.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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dbackjon wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:50 pm
Or Immunity THEFT - most kids have been exposed to COVID, and it is reeking havoc with their immunity system.

You're saying that exposure to COVID has wrought havoc with kids' immune systems while CNN (and others) seems to be saying that kids' didn't develop stronger immune systems because virtual learning, social distancing, etc. kept them from being exposed to RSV and other viruses.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:00 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm

Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
Link please. I sincerely doubt that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a link between getting mRNA vaccines and increased risk of RSV.

I think the idea that all of the social distancing, etc., resulting in an immunity gap makes sense. But I really doubt that getting a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is a factor.

I'm sure you must've read that somewhere so I expect you can provide a link.
Trying to find the trial data link. Also, this shouldn't be too hard to believe. Don't they tell you that you are more susceptible to illness immediately after vaccination as your immune system is dealing with the challenge? We've seen plenty of data where catching Covid is greatly increased after initial vaccination.
Within 28 days after vaccination, some respiratory tract-related infections were reported with greater frequency in the mRNA-1273 group than in the placebo group. Events of pneumonia were reported by 0.3% and 0% 0f mRNA-1273 and placebo recipients, respectively. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection was reported by 0.4% and <0.1% of mRNA-1273 and placebo recipients, respectively.
Last edited by SeattleGriz on Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

UNI88 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 6:27 pm
dbackjon wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:50 pm

Or Immunity THEFT - most kids have been exposed to COVID, and it is reeking havoc with their immunity system.

You're saying that exposure to COVID has wrought havoc with kids' immune systems while CNN (and others) seems to be saying that kids' didn't develop stronger immune systems because virtual learning, social distancing, etc. kept them from being exposed to RSV and other viruses.
I'm sure he'll be able to provide proof Covid is the cause for immunity theft.

I'd go with CNN and the lack of exposure (immunity debt). We're seeing that across the board and it's what has been talked about since the beginning.

This is why living with respiratory illnesses we can never control is a good idea for herd immunity. It's like trying to get rid of all bacteria...ain't gonna happen.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

dbackjon wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:52 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm

Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
More false anti-vax medical information from the King of it

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.32NB2CM
:rofl: You don't even read your fact checks, nor do you understand them, do you.

An infectious disease doctor from Toronto nobody has ever heard about, and a infections disease researcher from Australia nobody has ever heard about.

Well. That settles it. Two flaks that toe the company line. I'm sure they said the vax would prevent transmission, then said you wouldn't go to the hospital, then said you wouldn't die, then said the shot stayed localized, then said the mRNA would degrade in hours, it doesn't affect menses, it doesn't affect sperm...

All lies.

The rest of the fact check links are simply links to crap.

I'm on record in this thread as saying those who normally fear cold and flu season and those simply worried should get the shot, but outside of that, it should be voluntary.

All my posts focus on the slow backtracking of grandiose claims to what we now see in Australia saying boosters won't stop transmission, so there is no need to get one.

In other words, the vaccine is blameless. It's the ones pushing the vaccine that started out on self appointed high ground and have backtracked as their claims have fallen to the wayside. Experts my ass.

You cannot vaccinate your way out of a respiratory pandemic with a leaky vaccine. History has proven me right. Inject yourself with as much methyl pseudouridine as you like.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:47 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:04 pm

How are you adjusting for the greater wealth on the coasts that leads to greater health? Not only that, but better services on the coasts? When people in Montana have a bad illness, they come to Seattle for treatment.

Garbage in, garbage out.
i can adjust for per capita income. But i already adjusted for poverty rate so i doubt that will change anything. I think you are really reaching. it is not garbage in. it is a dataset with some error in it. But not much. The whole idea that COVID-19 deaths are being over stated is complete nonsense.

it's just a situation in which the macro data completely contradict what you've decided you want to believe. So you feel like you have to attack the validity of the data.
Is that right? Is that why you've now backtracked from this is rock solid to it's got some error in it.

You can't prove deaths from Covid simply for the fact you don't understand how the process works, nor filter out the monetary influence of declaring someone a COVID death, in addition to the false positive rates derived when using the PCR test or antigen post mortem in addition to changing how an actual case is determined.

Do you know families get $9,000 for a Covid death? That pushes the diagnosis towards Covid. Who wants to be the guy that denies a family $9k after their loved one has died?

A while ago I posted around 100 children's deaths that were listed as Covid deaths and asked you to look at them and tell me what you thought. You never replied, so I had to assume you understood how ridiculous some of the claims were. Those kids were unfortunately train wrecks. They all had multiple issues that made it impossible to tell what they actually died from. They all had marginal or no links to COVID at death.

I'm not saying the whole thing is a sham, but changing the definitions of a case, using testing it was never designed for and offering cash to grieving families does skew your numbers. What would a 20% reduction in deaths by Covid do to your numbers?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

UNI88 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:31 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm

Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
Really? If that's true (and based on my unqualified opinion that RSV is a much greater threat to them) then giving a young child the COVID vaccine is beyond reckless.
As you can see from the thread, I should have put in the qualifier "within 28 days of taking the vaccine".
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

UNI88 wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:31 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:07 pm

Not to mention Pfizer's own trial data showed a 400% increase in RSV for those children that took the mRNA vaccines versus the unvaccinated.
Really? If that's true (and based on my unqualified opinion that RSV is a much greater threat to them) then giving a young child the COVID vaccine is beyond reckless.
Man, I'm butchering this reply.

Wanted to add, "Yes, giving children the Covid vaccine is wreckless". The trial for 6 mo to 4 year old was an absolute joke AND there is absolutely NO clinical safety data.

StOnge loves to say, "you can't say that" and he is correct because he does understand statistics, but in this case, there is NO data showing that giving a child with a 3 in 1,000,000 chance of dying, that the vaccine outweighs the risk.

The booster shot approval for younger children had absolutely NO trial performed, but was based on what they gleaned from the adults. Immune response means immunobridging, which simply means antibodies produced. That's like saying my linebackers are better than yours, so my overall team is better. Total crap.
For each of the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines authorized today, the FDA relied on immune response and safety data that it had previously evaluated from a clinical study in adults of a booster dose of a bivalent COVID-19 vaccine that contained a component of the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 and a component of omicron lineage BA.1.
AND, there is still no long term safety data for any age group.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:48 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:47 pm

i can adjust for per capita income. But i already adjusted for poverty rate so i doubt that will change anything. I think you are really reaching. it is not garbage in. it is a dataset with some error in it. But not much. The whole idea that COVID-19 deaths are being over stated is complete nonsense.

it's just a situation in which the macro data completely contradict what you've decided you want to believe. So you feel like you have to attack the validity of the data.
Is that right? Is that why you've now backtracked from this is rock solid to it's got some error in it.

You can't prove deaths from Covid simply for the fact you don't understand how the process works, nor filter out the monetary influence of declaring someone a COVID death, in addition to the false positive rates derived when using the PCR test or antigen post mortem in addition to changing how an actual case is determined.
If what you are talking about in terms of referring to error is saying that there is SOME error in death counts I did not backtrack. I have always said there is some error in the counts. I was saying the same things about the death counts very early on when people first started trying to downplay the significance of the pandemic by saying death counts were exaggerated. One would expect some error in the counts but not that much and, also, the total number of deaths probably exceeds the counts. That is still my outlook.

I think i understand how it works at least as well as you do and I understand the arguments you make. I've seen others make them as well. What I'm getting at in talking about the associations is the fact that you would have to believe the significant over counting you believe to exist would have to be distributed in a way that results in associations that make perfect sense. For instance, there is a very significant positive association between State by State poverty rates and State by State death rates. What is your explanation for that? Is it that States that have higher poverty rates tend to over-report deaths by more than States with lower poverty rates do?

Also there is a large body of research now supporting the conclusion that vaccinations cut the death rates. And there is a very strong negative association such that States with higher vaccination rates tend to have lower death rates. Are you saying that is because it just so happens that States with lower vaccination rates tend to over report deaths more than States with higher vaccination rates do?

If you were correct in thinking that the deaths reporting is so bad what one would expect to see is just random noise. The signals with respect to what is really going on would be drowned out by random error associated with all of the COVID-19 deaths that weren't really COVID-19 deaths. But the signals are clearly not drowned out.

The people who are processing the mortality data know a whole lot more about how it works than either of us do. They are completely aware of the arguments about hospitals testing people for COVID-19 and allegations that people are classifying deaths as COVID-19 deaths because they make more money. And I would not be seeing the macro trends I am seeing in publicly available data if you were correct in believing that there is this really gross error in the death counts.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Today I looked at all of the variables I have looked plus a couple of more together. State by State stuff. Here is a correlation matrix that shows the variables I looked at (COVID-19 death rate is cumulative through yesterday):

Image

Note that Boosted Rate is as of August 31. But also note that the rates don't change quickly. For instance: The national boosted rate as of May 31 was 31% and it was 33% on August 31. I think it is reasonable to consider the August 31 boosted rate to be a general indicator of the willingness to get vaccinated by State.

Republican Controlled means that the State had a Republican Governor and both legislative houses controlled by Republicans throughout the pandemic. The alternative is States that had Democrat Governors and both legislative houses controlled by Democrats throughout the pandemic. States that had divided government at any point during the pandemic so far are omitted.

One thing that drops out is that the strongest association is with poverty rate. States with higher poverty rates tend to have higher COVID-19 death rates.

Another thing that jumps out is that Republican controlled States don't look so good. They have tended to have higher COVID-19 death rates, higher poverty rates, and lower income levels. Also lower vaccination rates.

I did some models. I did one leaving vaccination rate out and another including it. When I left vaccination rate out I ended up with a model suggesting that, in most cases, Republican control means higher death rate. In 29 of 35 cases, all other things being the same, States would have lower death rates if they had Democrat control. The exceptions are States with high percent Black population.

But that is also taking poverty rate into account. That's with poverty rate being equal. And States controlled by Republicans tend to have higher poverty rates. Also, the percent Black population does not account for the difference. If you control for that, States controlled by Republicans still tend to have higher poverty rates.

I did another one including vaccination rates. Of course, vaccination rate was high significant even when everything else is considered. One interesting that is that, if you hold vaccination rate constant, Republican States actually tend to have lower death rates. But when you consider variation in vaccination rates, Republican States clearly do worse.

Note: I did not include consideration of Per Capita Income in the models because it is highly correlated (0.929) with Mean Household Income and the correlation coefficient for Mean Household Income vs. Death Rate has a slightly higher absolute value than that for Per Capita Income vs. Death Rate.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:16 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:48 pm

Is that right? Is that why you've now backtracked from this is rock solid to it's got some error in it.

You can't prove deaths from Covid simply for the fact you don't understand how the process works, nor filter out the monetary influence of declaring someone a COVID death, in addition to the false positive rates derived when using the PCR test or antigen post mortem in addition to changing how an actual case is determined.
If what you are talking about in terms of referring to error is saying that there is SOME error in death counts I did not backtrack. I have always said there is some error in the counts. I was saying the same things about the death counts very early on when people first started trying to downplay the significance of the pandemic by saying death counts were exaggerated. One would expect some error in the counts but not that much and, also, the total number of deaths probably exceeds the counts. That is still my outlook.

I think i understand how it works at least as well as you do and I understand the arguments you make. I've seen others make them as well. What I'm getting at in talking about the associations is the fact that you would have to believe the significant over counting you believe to exist would have to be distributed in a way that results in associations that make perfect sense. For instance, there is a very significant positive association between State by State poverty rates and State by State death rates. What is your explanation for that? Is it that States that have higher poverty rates tend to over-report deaths by more than States with lower poverty rates do?

Also there is a large body of research now supporting the conclusion that vaccinations cut the death rates. And there is a very strong negative association such that States with higher vaccination rates tend to have lower death rates. Are you saying that is because it just so happens that States with lower vaccination rates tend to over report deaths more than States with higher vaccination rates do?

If you were correct in thinking that the deaths reporting is so bad what one would expect to see is just random noise. The signals with respect to what is really going on would be drowned out by random error associated with all of the COVID-19 deaths that weren't really COVID-19 deaths. But the signals are clearly not drowned out.

The people who are processing the mortality data know a whole lot more about how it works than either of us do. They are completely aware of the arguments about hospitals testing people for COVID-19 and allegations that people are classifying deaths as COVID-19 deaths because they make more money. And I would not be seeing the macro trends I am seeing in publicly available data if you were correct in believing that there is this really gross error in the death counts.
Don't fucking lump me in with you pal. You sell clinical lab testing and work billing for 8 years? FUCK NO, so do not act like we are equal.

You keep throwing out these claims of professionalism, but the field keeps letting you down.

COVID was monetarily incentivized and you just keep running numbers proving that. The billing side doesn't give two shits what their judgement looks like if it pays the bills.

I cannot begin to tell you how many times I was asked to do something that was considered inducement (unethical) in the medical testing industry or how many providers were asking for a cut of the services.
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