Coronavirus COVID-19

[SDHornet]

Good take on the botched messaging by "the experts":

[SDHornet]

LoCkDoWnS wOrK

[Gil Dobie]

Good take on the botched messaging by "the experts":

I've been saying that since the beginning. Covid was not a political entity. Listen to your Doc and follow medical advice from sources like the Mayo clinic or your health system.

[SeattleGriz]

It's more complex than your statement.

As Kalm suggested, that opinion was pretty much nuked by subsequent events. Note that the notes at the top say it's about Switzerland and note that it was originally written on June 10, 2020. Below are images for Switzerland from the Worldometer site as it is now. Look at the date scale cross the bottom at what was going on around June 10 then look at what has happened since. He was clearly wrong about what was going to happen. Take this quote for instance:

When the initial worst case scenarios didn’t come true anywhere, some now still cling to models predicting a second wave. Let’s leave them their hopes

What happened later in Switzerland is clearly completely inconsistent with his point of view at the time. The guy was completely wrong.




And BTW, I followed the IHME model for some time in detail. It did well for the United States overall. The whole time I was recording predictions and checking later the number of deaths predicted was within the uncertainty interval. If you had to say anything based on the point estimate (the center line) it UNDER stated what was going to happen.

I'd like to expand further, but I only have access through my phone. In regards to his prediction, you and Klam both seem to be skipping over the part where he claimed COVID was to become endemic. That would mean past the initial wave, you will see it come back for cold and flu season, which it did. His other predictions are spot on as well in regards to deaths and immunity.

[JohnStOnge]

LoCkDoWnS wOrK

California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.

[SeattleGriz]

LoCkDoWnS wOrK

California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.

At what cost?

[Winterborn]

California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.

At what cost?

Well the Governor is in the hotseat and might be recalled.

[Winterborn]

Pfizer and J&J looking to cash in on the seasonality of COVID.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a booster dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated. His comments were made public Thursday but were taped April 1.

Bourla said it’s possible people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually.

“A likely scenario is that there will be likely a need for a third dose, somewhere between six and 12 months and then from there, there will be an annual revaccination, but all of that needs to be confirmed. And again, the variants will play a key role,” he told CNBC’s Bertha Coombs during an event with CVS Health.

“It is extremely important to suppress the pool of people that can be susceptible to the virus,” Bourla said.

The comment comes after Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky told CNBC in February that people may need to get vaccinated against Covid-19 annually, just like seasonal flu shots.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer- ... onths.html

[SDHornet]

LoCkDoWnS wOrK

California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.

CA: 1545 deaths per 1M
FL: 1605 (should be a lot worse considering it loaded with retired/older people, no?)
TX: 1718

So give up your freedoms for marginal improvement?

[UNI88]

California has the fewest cases per million population as well as the fewest deaths per million population of the three.

CA: 1545 deaths per 1M
FL: 1605 (should be a lot worse considering it loaded with retired/older people, no?)
TX: 1718

So give up your freedoms for marginal improvement?

John has a penchant for focusing on the data that supports his bias.

[kalm]

CA: 1545 deaths per 1M
FL: 1605 (should be a lot worse considering it loaded with retired/older people, no?)
TX: 1718

So give up your freedoms for marginal improvement?

John has a penchant for focusing on the data that supports his bias.

He’s still right. Also many factors including exactly what freedoms have been lost and for how long, and economic outcomes.

Besides, what’s a few thousand more deaths and long term health and economic issues?

[SDHornet]

John has a penchant for focusing on the data that supports his bias.

He’s still right. Also many factors including exactly what freedoms have been lost and for how long, and economic outcomes.

Besides, what’s a few thousand more deaths and long term health and economic issues?

Numerically, sure. Realistically? No. Economy shut down and civil liberties taken for an insignificant difference compared to lesser actions/restrictions taken. No brainer to anyone with a bit of common sense.

[UNI88]

John has a penchant for focusing on the data that supports his bias.

He’s still right. Also many factors including exactly what freedoms have been lost and for how long, and economic outcomes.

Besides, what’s a few thousand more deaths and long term health and economic issues?

It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.

[SDHornet]

He’s still right. Also many factors including exactly what freedoms have been lost and for how long, and economic outcomes.

Besides, what’s a few thousand more deaths and long term health and economic issues?

It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.

ShUtDoWn UnTiL tHeRe ArE nO dEaThS

[kalm]

It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.

ShUtDoWn UnTiL tHeRe ArE nO dEaThS

Take a cue from the “not cut and dried”. Still many questions. Answer is typically in the middle. Countries with worse outcomes like us are not in the middle.

[SeattleGriz]

ShUtDoWn UnTiL tHeRe ArE nO dEaThS

Take a cue from the “not cut and dried”. Still many questions. Answer is typically in the middle. Countries with worse outcomes like us are not in the middle.

Can you provide us with a list of how each country is tracking cases and deaths? Then we can compare apples to apples as opposed to guessing, or otherwise known as scaremongering.

[kalm]

Take a cue from the “not cut and dried”. Still many questions. Answer is typically in the middle. Countries with worse outcomes like us are not in the middle.

Can you provide us with a list of how each country is tracking cases and deaths? Then we can compare apples to apples as opposed to guessing, or otherwise known as scaremongering.

Knock yourself out.

[AZGrizFan]

He’s still right. Also many factors including exactly what freedoms have been lost and for how long, and economic outcomes.

Besides, what’s a few thousand more deaths and long term health and economic issues?

It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.

The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.

[kalm]

It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.

The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.

There will be more comprehensive post ops on everything from deaths to hospitalizations to long term effects, to economics.

Certainty at this point is highly subjective.

[Gil Dobie]

It's not that cut and dried. The deaths/million are close enough that it's fair to question whether the stricter restrictions were worth it. You can't just say we saved this many lives and leave it at that without factoring in the lives lost and damaged by the restrictions themselves.

The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.

California's median age is 40, which is higher than Florida's median age per case, 34. That my friend is a significant difference for Covid.

[SDHornet]

The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.

California's median age is 40, which is higher than Florida's median age per case, 34. That my friend is a significant difference for Covid.

Median age sounds like a useless stat (think median home price, or median income). But no per wiki, CA's median age is 37 and FL is 42.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... median_age

The demographic breakdown for CA is as follows:
Age Range: % of pop - % of cases - % deaths
0-17: 23% - 13% - 0%
18-49: 44% - 57% - 7% -
50-64: 18% - 195 - 20%
65+: 16% - 11% - 74%

These demographics have not changed much over the past year here in CA. We knew who were at risk yet schools and the economy was shutdown when it was the old and weak that had the greatest risk of the China virus. Fucking clown world.

[SeattleGriz]

The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.

There will be more comprehensive post ops on everything from deaths to hospitalizations to long term effects, to economics.

Certainty at this point is highly subjective.

By who? The same guys that got everything wrong in the first place?

The analysis is going to be a total trainwreck.

[kalm]

There will be more comprehensive post ops on everything from deaths to hospitalizations to long term effects, to economics.

Certainty at this point is highly subjective.

By who? The same guys that got everything wrong in the first place?

The analysis is going to be a total trainwreck.

The people I listened to got most of it right. Then again, I wasn’t in denial searching contrarianism at every turn.

[SeattleGriz]

By who? The same guys that got everything wrong in the first place?

The analysis is going to be a total trainwreck.

The people I listened to got most of it right. Then again, I wasn’t in denial searching contrarianism at every turn.

Everybody you listened to should have gotten most of it right. It wasn't rocket surgery. Just had to pay attention to past history.

Why do you think I brought up the "art" of science so much in this thread. Because science isn't always cut and dry, but there are those who can take the current picture, overlay it with the past and make wise decisions. We didn't hear enough from these people.

Analysis will still be a train wreck. Topic is way too politicized.

[UNI88]

The deaths per million are close enough to say with certainty the stricter restrictions most certainly were NOT worth it.

California's median age is 40, which is higher than Florida's median age per case, 34. That my friend is a significant difference for Covid.

But Florida had few restrictions and California was very restrictive. Are old people in Florida smarter than old people in California and knew that they should quarantine to protect themselves while old people in California trusted the government to protect them? You might be proving the argument that SD has been making for quite some time.