Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by UNI88 »

kalm wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:46 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:32 am WaPo admits what everyone who hadn‘t bought into the fear porn already knew.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/washingto ... s-pandemic
I’ve been accused of fear porn...yet I’ve socially distanced golfed and watched football on our porch with a few buddies since last Spring. So...wrong.

And heaven forbid we over-reacted to the flu.
Hindsight is 20/20. We've learned a lot in a year, it's easy to look back now and see where mistakes were made.

It would have been great if Trump would have utilized that kind of self-reflection and learned from his mistakes.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by ∞∞∞ »

UNI88 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:23 am
∞∞∞ wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:11 am

Happens when you have friends who don't follow COVID protocols. :coffee:
That's kind of ironic. :coffee:
:lol:

I probably got it at work considering three others got it as well (and I wasn't the first). That's with me wearing a mask all day and distancing, but that won't help when you're around others for 8+ hours a day...which shows how transmissible this is.

The two people I know who tried their best to be safe got it (both are fine). They were pretty pissed when it happened...both still aren't sure how...but I suspect it's cause they both live in high-density housing.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

∞∞∞ wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:43 pm which shows how transmissible this is
I honestly do wonder about that Trip. If this were really super transmissible, I would think just about every person would have this by now. 32M cases verified in a population of 328M. 10% of the population when so many people and places weren't really taking this seriously.... tells me is actually is not extremely transmissible.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:50 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:49 pm I have gotten two Moderna shots. But I will continue to wear a mask when I do something like go to a store. The reason is that the purpose of wearing a mask was never about me. Fully vaccinated, at least for now, I do not have to worry about serious illness or death from COVID. Also, the chances that I will get sick at all are small. But there is some chance.

We are in a societal effort to try to end this pandemic. I have no problem with wearing a mask when I go into public settings just in case I become infected in spite of my vaccinated status and could potentially spread the virus. Also, I want to put others who may come close to me at ease. And what the HELL is so difficult about wearing a mask when you go shopping? I mean really.

I think there is something wrong, mentally, with people who get all in a wad about wearing a mask. It's just ridiculous. And the idea that wearing a mask does not reduce the risk that you will pass the virus on if you are infected just isn't tenable. You shouldn't even need studies to tell you that. It's an obvious physical reality. Wondering about whether or not wearing a mask will reduce the risk that an infected person will transmit a respiratory virus is like wondering if a baby wearing a diaper will reduce the risk that it'll wet the bed. It's just ridiculous.
Thanks for agreeing to what we all agreed to do years ago. Not go out sick and spread whatever you have.
Surely you understand that people can carry and spread this virus without being sick, right?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:32 am WaPo admits what everyone who hadn‘t bought into the fear porn already knew.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/washingto ... s-pandemic
I'm not going to buy a subscription to read the Washington Post article that's linked but I think the Fox News author reflects a misunderstanding of how public health works. It's like if you leave your turkey out at room temperature for 8 hours on Thanksgiving Day with everybody touching it, etc. Then you go ahead and save it to eat some later even though public health recommendations say you shouldn't do that. And you don't get sick. That doesn't mean you didn't make a stupid decision. It means you got away with it that time.

Saying "Hey public health people said I shouldn't have done that and I didn't get sick" does not mean the public health people were wrong about the risk.

Otherwise: My recollection is that people including people at CNN have been saying for a long time that outdoor activity is not as risky as indoor activity. That does not mean that it has been a good idea to get into the middle of large outdoor crowds.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Just Googling around I found this article from October about the 10 worst COVID-19 super spreader events so far:

https://www.thehealthy.com/infectious-d ... er-events/

Note that #1 on the list is a soccer game. That is an outdoor event. Now, it was on February 19, 2020. That was before people realized what was going on so they were taking no precautions whatsoever. But It was an outdoor event. It can happen. The fact that it didn't happen with respect to something like that Ozarks thing is just chance. The coin was flipped and it landed heads instead of tails.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:24 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:50 pm

Thanks for agreeing to what we all agreed to do years ago. Not go out sick and spread whatever you have.
Surely you understand that people can carry and spread this virus without being sick, right?
It's more complex than your statement.
4. Immunology of common sense
As an immunologist I trust a biological model, namely that of the human organism, which has built a tried and tested, adaptive immune system. At the end of February, driving home from the recording of [a Swiss political TV debate show], I mentioned to Daniel Koch [former head of the Swiss federal section “Communicable Diseases” of the Federal Office of Public Health] that I suspected there was a general immunity in the population against Sars-Cov-2. He argued against my view. I later defended him anyway, when he said that children were not a driving factor in the spread of the pandemic. He suspected that children didn’t have a receptor for the virus, which is of course nonsense. Still, we had to admit that his observations were correct. But the fact that every scientist attacked him afterwards and asked for studies to prove his point, was somewhat ironic. Nobody asked for studies to prove that people in certain at-risk groups were dying. When the first statistics from China and later worldwide data showed the same trend, that is to say that almost no children under ten years old got sick, everyone should have made the argument that children clearly have to be immune. For every other disease that doesn’t afflict a certain group of people, we would come to the conclusion that that group is immune. When people are sadly dying in a retirement home, but in the same place other pensioners with the same risk factors are left entirely unharmed, we should also conclude that they were presumably immune.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:01 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:24 pm

Surely you understand that people can carry and spread this virus without being sick, right?
It's more complex than your statement.
4. Immunology of common sense
As an immunologist I trust a biological model, namely that of the human organism, which has built a tried and tested, adaptive immune system. At the end of February, driving home from the recording of [a Swiss political TV debate show], I mentioned to Daniel Koch [former head of the Swiss federal section “Communicable Diseases” of the Federal Office of Public Health] that I suspected there was a general immunity in the population against Sars-Cov-2. He argued against my view. I later defended him anyway, when he said that children were not a driving factor in the spread of the pandemic. He suspected that children didn’t have a receptor for the virus, which is of course nonsense. Still, we had to admit that his observations were correct. But the fact that every scientist attacked him afterwards and asked for studies to prove his point, was somewhat ironic. Nobody asked for studies to prove that people in certain at-risk groups were dying. When the first statistics from China and later worldwide data showed the same trend, that is to say that almost no children under ten years old got sick, everyone should have made the argument that children clearly have to be immune. For every other disease that doesn’t afflict a certain group of people, we would come to the conclusion that that group is immune. When people are sadly dying in a retirement home, but in the same place other pensioners with the same risk factors are left entirely unharmed, we should also conclude that they were presumably immune.
That article didn’t age well.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:15 pm
∞∞∞ wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:43 pm which shows how transmissible this is
I honestly do wonder about that Trip. If this were really super transmissible, I would think just about every person would have this by now. 32M cases verified in a population of 328M. 10% of the population when so many people and places weren't really taking this seriously.... tells me is actually is not extremely transmissible.
I wonder too. The total deaths and hospitalization spikes still stand out to me.

I also wonder what it would it would have looked like without protocols.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:38 am
89Hen wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:15 pm

I honestly do wonder about that Trip. If this were really super transmissible, I would think just about every person would have this by now. 32M cases verified in a population of 328M. 10% of the population when so many people and places weren't really taking this seriously.... tells me is actually is not extremely transmissible.
I wonder too. The total deaths and hospitalization spikes still stand out to me.

I also wonder what it would it would have looked like without protocols.
Higher, but still not as high as you would be lead to believe. Think about how this has dominated everyone's life globally for over a year now, and we really never saw the end of the world type numbers. Not even close to approaching the country of the city of the ballpark.
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Coronavirus COVID-19

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Thailand is one of the countries that was lauded as “doing it right” with super restrictive rules and lockdowns. They were pretty much a COVID-free oasis up until when I left.

Well, the party’s over now... cases are exploding, Bangkok is reporting 1000+ new cases per day currently, and the Sinovac vaccine is pretty much garbage. And it is all they have right now because theyve been cozying up to China for the last few years

Bangkok is locking down

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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CID1990 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:21 am Thailand is one of the countries that was lauded as “doing it right” with super restrictive rules and lockdowns. They were pretty much a COVID-free oasis up until when I left.

Well, the party’s over now... cases are exploding, Bangkok is reporting 1000+ new cases per day currently, and the Sinovac vaccine is pretty much garbage. And it is all they have right now because theyve been cozying up to China for the last few years

Bangkok is locking down

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Saw an article on Chile today, they're cases are going up, also with the Sinovac vaccine. Some independent research is now saying, after the first dose, the Sinovac vaccine is only 5% effective. Does rise to perhaps 50% effective after the second dose, but in a place like Chile it's mainly just people with one dose at this point.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:08 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:01 pm

It's more complex than your statement.



That article didn’t age well.
:lol: Nice try.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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GannonFan wrote:
CID1990 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:21 am Thailand is one of the countries that was lauded as “doing it right” with super restrictive rules and lockdowns. They were pretty much a COVID-free oasis up until when I left.

Well, the party’s over now... cases are exploding, Bangkok is reporting 1000+ new cases per day currently, and the Sinovac vaccine is pretty much garbage. And it is all they have right now because theyve been cozying up to China for the last few years

Bangkok is locking down

Welcome to the party, pal!


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Saw an article on Chile today, they're cases are going up, also with the Sinovac vaccine. Some independent research is now saying, after the first dose, the Sinovac vaccine is only 5% effective. Does rise to perhaps 50% effective after the second dose, but in a place like Chile it's mainly just people with one dose at this point.
Word I’ve heard it is south of 50% and being adjusted downward daily as more data comes in


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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

2nd dose of Moderna today, no side effects as of 6 hours later. See what happens in the full 24 hours after.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:53 pm 2nd dose of Moderna today, no side effects as of 6 hours later. See what happens in the full 24 hours after.
Congratulations!
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by kalm »

Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:53 pm 2nd dose of Moderna today, no side effects as of 6 hours later. See what happens in the full 24 hours after.
Excellent!

Two days in the books now for me. Bought a Surface and started using my msn.com account again.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Bastard stole my routine.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by AshevilleApp »

Heading out for round two of the vaccine. We'll see if I turn into a toad.



I guess some would view that as an improvement. :nod:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AshevilleApp wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:18 am Heading out for round two of the vaccine. We'll see if I turn into a toad.



I guess some would view that as an improvement. :nod:
Good luck (on the vaccine thing :mrgreen: )
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AshevilleApp wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:18 am Heading out for round two of the vaccine. We'll see if I turn into a toad.



I guess some would view that as an improvement. :nod:
Good luck. Only a sore arm after 23 hours. Drank a lot of water before and after. Also took a couple aspirin after.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:05 am
AshevilleApp wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:18 am Heading out for round two of the vaccine. We'll see if I turn into a toad.



I guess some would view that as an improvement. :nod:
Good luck. Only a sore arm after 23 hours. Drank a lot of water before and after. Also took a couple aspirin after.
I'm relying on beer and ice cream.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:01 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:24 pm

Surely you understand that people can carry and spread this virus without being sick, right?
It's more complex than your statement.
4. Immunology of common sense
As an immunologist I trust a biological model, namely that of the human organism, which has built a tried and tested, adaptive immune system. At the end of February, driving home from the recording of [a Swiss political TV debate show], I mentioned to Daniel Koch [former head of the Swiss federal section “Communicable Diseases” of the Federal Office of Public Health] that I suspected there was a general immunity in the population against Sars-Cov-2. He argued against my view. I later defended him anyway, when he said that children were not a driving factor in the spread of the pandemic. He suspected that children didn’t have a receptor for the virus, which is of course nonsense. Still, we had to admit that his observations were correct. But the fact that every scientist attacked him afterwards and asked for studies to prove his point, was somewhat ironic. Nobody asked for studies to prove that people in certain at-risk groups were dying. When the first statistics from China and later worldwide data showed the same trend, that is to say that almost no children under ten years old got sick, everyone should have made the argument that children clearly have to be immune. For every other disease that doesn’t afflict a certain group of people, we would come to the conclusion that that group is immune. When people are sadly dying in a retirement home, but in the same place other pensioners with the same risk factors are left entirely unharmed, we should also conclude that they were presumably immune.
As Kalm suggested, that opinion was pretty much nuked by subsequent events. Note that the notes at the top say it's about Switzerland and note that it was originally written on June 10, 2020. Below are images for Switzerland from the Worldometer site as it is now. Look at the date scale cross the bottom at what was going on around June 10 then look at what has happened since. He was clearly wrong about what was going to happen. Take this quote for instance:
When the initial worst case scenarios didn’t come true anywhere, some now still cling to models predicting a second wave. Let’s leave them their hopes
What happened later in Switzerland is clearly completely inconsistent with his point of view at the time. The guy was completely wrong.

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And BTW, I followed the IHME model for some time in detail. It did well for the United States overall. The whole time I was recording predictions and checking later the number of deaths predicted was within the uncertainty interval. If you had to say anything based on the point estimate (the center line) it UNDER stated what was going to happen.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

I have to say, also, that I shake my head at this thing where people think the natural human immune response is sufficient. Human immune systems were around in the middle ages when life expectancy was mid thirties and that was largely because of disease. The fact that smallpox and polio aren't issues for us anymore isn't because of the natural human immune response. It's because humankind developed vaccines to train our immune systems so that they were ready when the invaders arrived.

I see it a lot on Facebook. Everything would be solved if everybody took Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Zinc, and echinacea to boost their immune systems. No. That's nonsense.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

The Switzerland type of thing happens a lot. People see some short term thing that flatters the "it's no big deal" narrative they want to believe and jump on it. One I bookmarked for old times sake is when Bill Bennett and Seth Leibsohn wrote this in an April 28, 2020 article at https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronav ... h-leibsohn:
In March, Florida was projected to be the second-worst state for COVID-19 deaths, with predictions of 174 per day and a total of nearly 7,000 by the end of the summer.  Nothing like this has transpired and it will not come to pass.   
Very confidently stated. The problem is that Florida crossed the 7,000 deaths threshold on August 1. If the "end of the summer" is considered August 31, Florida was at 11,189 deaths by then. Daily deaths peaked at 276 on August 11.

Now it's the Texas thing. We'll see what happens. But so far, the "wronger" side has been the side trying to downplay this thing.
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