Coronavirus COVID-19

[Pwns]

The media has been their own worst enemy. In the pursuit of chasing ratings they've done more on their own to undermine their credibility than anything Trump could ever have done. Trump is a great scapegoat, because he's so polarizing and such a classless buffoon, but the shift in journalism has been going on for awhile now and is far more responsible for their own loss in credibility than the nut in the White House.

Sadly, I think we probably get the media we deserve...

[kalm]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

"We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe." - Dr. Andrew Friedson, co-author of the study.

A large get together of 400,000 people over 10 days is now one of the largest super-spreader events we have seen for COVID-19. The rally is responsible for:

- 19% of the national cases during that time
- 250,000 cases
- $12 billion in public health costs
- COVID-19 spread to HALF of all US counties

Read the statistics again. 1 event spurred spread to HALF of the counties in the entire US and accounts for 250,000 cases so far.


https://www.iza.org/

[∞∞∞]

Yeah, the data from Sturgis is awful. Here's Jalopnik's take:

https://jalopnik.com/results-are-in-stu ... 1844982613

[CAA Flagship]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

"We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe." - Dr. Andrew Friedson, co-author of the study.

A large get together of 400,000 people over 10 days is now one of the largest super-spreader events we have seen for COVID-19. The rally is responsible for:

- 19% of the national cases during that time
- 250,000 cases
- $12 billion in public health costs
- COVID-19 spread to HALF of all US counties

Read the statistics again. 1 event spurred spread to HALF of the counties in the entire US and accounts for 250,000 cases so far.


https://www.iza.org/

[kalm]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

Do your own study, Milton.

[∞∞∞]

That seems about right. I read that averaged out, each case of Covid-19 has ended up costing the US about ~$45K. I'd have to search for the source. That's just the healthcare portion too and not the economic toll (lost wages, decrease in productivity, etc.).

[Gil Dobie]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

"We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe." - Dr. Andrew Friedson, co-author of the study.

A large get together of 400,000 people over 10 days is now one of the largest super-spreader events we have seen for COVID-19. The rally is responsible for:

- 19% of the national cases during that time
- 250,000 cases
- $12 billion in public health costs
- COVID-19 spread to HALF of all US counties

Read the statistics again. 1 event spurred spread to HALF of the counties in the entire US and accounts for 250,000 cases so far.


https://www.iza.org/

[CAA Flagship]

Do your own study, Milton.

So you haven't given that number any thought? Or questioned the definition of "public health costs"?

[JohnStOnge]

The CDC is the finest epidemiology and disease control entity in the world.

That’s odd because during the hand wringing in May, I heard several people say that it was actually the WHO

I wasn't one of them. Not that I think the WHO is bad. But when it comes to definable entities I think the CDC is the best.

[kalm]

Do your own study, Milton.

So you haven't given that number any thought? Or questioned the definition of "public health costs"?

Yes and yes. Someone already addressed it. It’s probably low when it comes ongoing issues post infection. It also doesn’t account for lost productivity which adds up (something I mentioned in April).

[JohnStOnge]

No. What's shocking and disturbing is the extent to which people have been successful in convincing the public not to trust the media so that they can get away with crap when the media call them on it. In this case we are talking about information about a pandemic. The media have been generally accurate. I'm sure they've made some mistakes (though I can't think of any off the top of my head). But the basic nature of the situation has been accurately reported.

I'm talking about the mainstream media now. Not the right wing media sources.

The media has been their own worst enemy. In the pursuit of chasing ratings they've done more on their own to undermine their credibility than anything Trump could ever have done. Trump is a great scapegoat, because he's so polarizing and such a classless buffoon, but the shift in journalism has been going on for awhile now and is far more responsible for their own loss in credibility than the nut in the White House.

I disagree. This is not something that happened in a vacuum. We have been through about three decades of persistent conservative efforts to discredit the mainstream media now. Entities like like ABC, NBC, CBS, The Washington Post, The New York Times, etc., have high factual reporting rates. They make mistakes. But they are factually correct way more often than they are factually incorrect. WAY more. They are not the reason.The persistent effort to discredit them on the part of conservatives is way more of a factor than the mistakes they have made.

[JohnStOnge]

I tried looking at the Sturgis thing at http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf. I think it's suggestive. But it's indirect evidence.

I do agree that the Sturgis gathering was a stupid thing to do.

[SeattleGriz]

I tried looking at the Sturgis thing at http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf. I think it's suggestive. But it's indirect evidence.

I do agree that the Sturgis gathering was a stupid thing to do.

I'm trying to see if it was peer reviewed.

[CAA Flagship]

So you haven't given that number any thought? Or questioned the definition of "public health costs"?

Yes and yes. Someone already addressed it. It’s probably low when it comes ongoing issues post infection. It also doesn’t account for lost productivity which adds up (something I mentioned in April).

Oh FFS. It's only a month since Sturgis. Stop. Do the math.

And what is "public health costs"?

[kalm]

Yes and yes. Someone already addressed it. It’s probably low when it comes ongoing issues post infection. It also doesn’t account for lost productivity which adds up (something I mentioned in April).

Oh FFS. It's only a month since Sturgis. Stop. Do the math.

And what is "public health costs"?

I took it as a projection. It could go down but it could also go up.

[HI54UNI]

Over 1,000 high school football games already played, zero reports of community COVID spread

https://footballscoop.com/news/over-100 ... id-spread/

[BDKJMU]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

"We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe." - Dr. Andrew Friedson, co-author of the study.

A large get together of 400,000 people over 10 days is now one of the largest super-spreader events we have seen for COVID-19. The rally is responsible for:

- 19% of the national cases during that time
- 250,000 cases
- $12 billion in public health costs
- COVID-19 spread to HALF of all US counties

Read the statistics again. 1 event spurred spread to HALF of the counties in the entire US and accounts for 250,000 cases so far.


https://www.iza.org/

You actually believe that “study”
More holes in it than swiss cheese.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2 ... 0aa3c225a8

[SeattleGriz]

Oh FFS. It's only a month since Sturgis. Stop. Do the math.

And what is "public health costs"?

I took it as a projection. It could go down but it could also go up.

Briefly reading through the methodology, I think you can determine it won't go up. Seems they have picked worst case scenarios for everything in this "model".

[HI54UNI]

From the Washington post. People have lost their minds.

[kalm]

From the Washington post. People have lost their minds.

All that work and she shares some air with the hairdresser and manicurist for an extended period of time.

[kalm]

I took it as a projection. It could go down but it could also go up.

Briefly reading through the methodology, I think you can determine it won't go up. Seems they have picked worst case scenarios for everything in this "model".

Only if there are no more Sturgis related cases or the costs are lower than what we’ve seen so far (a possibility considering we’re getting better at treatment.

[kalm]

Some data is starting to come in from Sturgis....

You actually believe that “study”
More holes in it than swiss cheese.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2 ... 0aa3c225a8

“Believe”? No. I believe in coyotes and time as an abstract.

Question everything in life.

Does it peak my interest? Of course.

The study authors themselves are/have had it peer reviewed and mention it’s a work in progress that will be improved upon as more data comes in.

Your disinterest is unsurprising.

[CAA Flagship]

Oh FFS. It's only a month since Sturgis. Stop. Do the math.

And what is "public health costs"?

I took it as a projection. It could go down but it could also go up.

I'm pretty sure what they did was take 250,000 and multiply it by an average hospitalization cost. That would be ridiculous because only a small fraction of them would require hospitalization. And of that fraction, not all are using "public health costs". So fuck that guy.

[kalm]

I took it as a projection. It could go down but it could also go up.

I'm pretty sure what they did was take 250,000 and multiply it by an average hospitalization cost. That would be ridiculous because only a small fraction of them would require hospitalization. And of that fraction, not all are using "public health costs". So fuck that guy.

That would be about $50/case. So you’re saying it’s more?

[Baldy]

No, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Didn't Spawn 250,000 Coronavirus Cases

Here's what we were told: An August motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota, helped spread COVID-19 to more than a quarter-million Americans, making it the root of about 20 percent of all new coronavirus cases in the U.S. last month. So said a new white paper from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, at least. And national news outlets ran with it.

"Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was 'superspreading event' that cost public health $12.2 billion," tweeted The Hill.

"The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota last month may have caused 250,000 new coronavirus cases," said NBC News.

"The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally represents a situation where many of the 'worst-case scenarios' for superspreading occurred simultaneously," the researchers write in the new paper, titled "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19."

Not so fast. Let's take a look at what they actually tracked and what's mere speculation.